Understanding and using public opinion research Mark Gill 26 th August 2013.

Understanding and using public opinion research

Mark Gill

26th August 2013

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Research: A simple business

• Ask the right sample

• The right questions

• Add up the figures correctly

• Use it wisely- Advocacy- Management

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What do we measure?

• We measure perceptions, not facts

• Two kinds of findings we bring to our clients: reality, and misperception

• Five things we find: behaviour, knowledge, and…

• three levels of ‘views’:

Opinions

Attitudes

Values

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Research can:

Obtain information

Set the context

Provide a common frame of reference

Clarify confusion

Focus debate

Provide insight

Curb claims

Cinch argument

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Research does not:

✕ Dictate policy or sacrifice an organisation’s core values or objectives

✕ Manage the organisation

✕ Add stress or engender conflict

✕ Necessarily lead to action

✕ Confuse the issues

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Using research to support Governments

Policy formulation and evaluation

Tactical decisions

Performance evaluation

Best practice sharing (local and international)

Service improvements

Two way communications

Strategic direction

Service delivery and evaluation

Case Study 1: health services in Trinidad & Tobago

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The most important issues facing the nation

Q What in your opinion is the most important issues facing T&T today? What do you see as the other important issues facing T&T today?

Ten most frequently cited issues

Poverty/inequality

Health/hospitals

Low pay / wages

Crime/law & order/vandalism

Inflation/prices

Corruption in Government

Economy

Unemployment/jobs

Child abuse

Roads

71% single most important issue

Base: 772 TT adults, 13th February – 29th March 2012

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Local health priorities

Q Thinking about your local area/your regional corporation, what do you think are the most important health-related improvements that are required? (Open ended question)

Control of mosquitoes / rats


Area / abandoned lots need clearing

Improve drainage system

Problems in healthcare delivery

Open health centre 24/7

Proper waste disposal facilities

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National health priorities

Q On this card is a list of health-related issues that the Government should tackle. Which, three or four, if any, do you think are most important?

Improvements to hospitalsImprovements to health centres

DengueHIV /Aids

Heart disease and strokeCancer

Alcohol misuseAccidents

Teenage pregnancyFood safety

Healthy eating

Illegal abortionsDental health

National health insuranceMental health

Smoking


Case Study 2: strikes and economy in Palestine

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Standard of living

Your standard of living at the present time

The current economic conditions in the Palestinian lands

Q To what level are you satisfied about the following?

Satisfied to some extent

Very satisfied

Don’t know

Very dissatisfied

8%

41%

26%

25%

Dissatisfied to some extent

49%

Satisfied:WB = 43%GS = 52%

51%

17%

31%

50%

19%

81%

Satisfied:WB = 13%GS = 25%

Base: 1,200 Palestinian adults (18+) in West Bank / Gaza, 6th – 11th February 2013

Trends

Satisfied Dissatisfied NetNov 2010 65% 36% +29

Nov 2012 47% 53% -6

Feb 2013 49% 51% -2

Your standard of living at the present time:

Satisfied Dissatisfied NetNov 2010 25% 75% -50

Nov 2012 15% 83% -68

Feb 2013 19% 81% -62

Current economic conditions in the Palestinian lands:


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76%

37%

31%

24%

19%

5%

1%

Responsibility for the crisis

Israel

Q As you may know many PA employees have not been receiving their full wages because of the economic crisis facing the Authority. Which two of these do you think is mostly responsible for this crisis? CODE UP TO 2

Arab countries

PM Fayyad

United Nations

President Abbas

United States

Trade unions


15

37%

37%

13%

12%

Support for the strikes

Strongly support

Oppose to some extent

Q Do you support or oppose the recent strikes by government workers in protest against not receiving their full wages?

Strongly oppose

Support to some extent


Case Study 3: US opinion formers on Israel & Palestine

(qualitative study in 2010)

Key Issues (I)

Messenger More Important Than Message– Participants’ attitudes towards any of the Palestinians’ messages are

coloured by their pre-conceived impressions of Palestine / Palestinian Authority

– They often find it difficult to engage with specific messages or arguments about the “right” policy options if they know these are the views of the Palestinians

– For the most part, participants have negative perceptions of Palestine – though several stress these are perceptions

– In several cases they are much more sympathetic to the Palestinian message and are aware of injustice of certain issues (e.g. settlements, checkpoints)

– However, they stress that it is the image of Palestine that needs to be addressed first

The Conflict is Not the Top U.S. Priority– Israel / Palestine conflict is seen to be an important issue, but not a top

priority

– In terms of foreign affairs, the ongoing conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan are considered more immediately relevant / significant than the Palestine issue

– And in the current climate, U.S. domestic issues such as the state of the economy and unemployment are of even more immediate concern

– Several participants also consider that from a U.S. point of view the Israel / Palestine issue is more about concerns about terrorism and threats to U.S.

“Automatic” Sympathy for Israel– Most consider there is almost an “automatic” sympathy or favourability

towards Israel and so their point of view is much more easily accepted

– There is a lot of nervousness even talking about the Israel / Palestine conflict for fear of being seen to be anti-Israel

– Strong sense that being anti-Israel = being anti-semitic

Negative Perception of Palestine– The default position in terms of image Palestine is negative, even in the

absence of reasons for being so

– At the most basic, Palestinians are labelled as “against us” – though many acknowledge they “simply don’t know what they are like”

Low levels of Confidence in Finding Peaceful Solution (soon)

– Israel: internal pressure to expand settlements, right to security: but believe Israel will have to compromise on these for peace to be achieved

– Palestine: Gaza/West Bank divisions, doubts over feasibility of genuine ceasefire, ability to actually govern in a stable way

– Feeling that there is no real pressure or support from other Arab states

Key Issues (II)

All participants feel knowledgeable about the conflict, but not experts

They describe the conflict as about:

- Borders – most see this as the biggest/most controversial issue

- Jerusalem Refugees Settlements

- And for some it is described as “a religious dispute”

– Israeli domestic politics and the fractioning of Palestine (between Fatah and Hamas) as complicating the issues. As one participant said: “over the years this is a conflict that has brought out the worst elements of both sides” making a peaceful solution even more difficult to achieve

– These opinion formers rely on a wide range of sources to keep informed, mainly U.S. and European media, especially print (WP, WSJ, NYT, London Times). One or two say they read Jerusalem Post and Haaretz occasionally

– Several say that the U.S. right wing / Christian conservative movement / Jewish lobby are very influential in the U.S. and has “skewed the debate to make it a sacred duty to support Israel no matter what”

– Most feel that the average American would have “medium interest, but low knowledge” of the conflict – mostly derived from school/history books or from more popular media for current affairs; and would bracket Palestinians as “those Muslims”

Knowledge of the conflict

Attitudes towards Israel

– Participants accept the fact that many more Americans are favourable to Israel than Palestine. Explain this through:

A) The idealised history of Israel (a “homeland” for the Jews)

B) The sense that Israel is involved in a David vs. Goliath struggle

C) That Israel is a democracy “the only democracy in the Middle East” – this in particular is an important barometer indicator

D) That Israel is Westernised and stable – in other words it “is like us” and there are economic, cultural and popular reference points, as well as historical and political

– There is an acknowledgement that Americans are far more likely to come into contact with Jews than Muslims, which helps to build up support at the grassroots

– And that the Jewish “lobby” or integration into American society is more successful and effective, building top-down support

– However, several say that U.S. support for Israel is not limitless and is “only up to a point” – the problem is no-one can define this “point”

– Nevertheless, there is a sense that there is some waning of support for Israel (especially after its actions earlier this year)

– And a belief that the Israeli government is probably more hard-line than most of its people

Attitudes towards Palestine (1)

– Mainly negative perceptions about Palestine

– These seem to be driven by three factors:

A) Concern about the internal violence / external terrorism

B) No or few cultural or social associations with U.S.

C) Lack of clear communications / engagement from Palestine (to counteract preconceived negative associations)

– Opinion formers (who know more about the conflict) say that (A) and (C) are the most important barriers to building a better image of Palestine

– They also say that (B) is a key issue especially in terms of persuading general public opinion – people will easily bracket Palestinians as “not like us” or even “against us”

– There is a belief that Palestine’s associations with other Arab/Muslim states affects its image – i.e. Iranian support for Palestine and condemnation of Israel/US = Palestine is aligned with Iran against the U.S.

– There is also a “self-image” around supporting Israel or Palestine. While anyone across the political spectrum could support for Israel; it is often felt that only very liberal left would support Palestine over Israel

– Very low awareness of who the Palestinian leadership is, with one participant saying that “I doubt Palestine is really governed, even if someone is technically in charge”

– All understood the difference between leadership in Gaza and West Bank; and all have very negative opinion of Hamas (violence, extremism, wish to destroy Israel)

– Fatah is often seen as corrupt or ineffective – the latter point is particularly important as several participants said they needed to be confident that Palestine is ruled by law and wanted to know what the “proof points” are that demonstrate this

– However, several say they think that the Fatah leadership is “trying to move forward” and is “more sophisticated and better understands the U.S.”

– Only one participant named Abbas and he had no strong positive or negative feelings towards him

– Only one reference to the PM: “I heard the other day about the new PNA PM, who is seen as the future/hope for leadership – but I’ve never heard of him before! The new faces on the scene are not well known”

Attitudes towards Palestine (II)

Questions and discussion

Understanding and using public opinion research Mark Gill 26 th August 2013.

Documents

Transcript of Understanding and using public opinion research Mark Gill 26 th August 2013.