Under this model: Important to recruit most of the capable individuals
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Is the Science and Engineering Workforce Drawn from the Far Upper Tail of the Math Ability Distribution?
Catherine WeinbergerUC Santa [email protected]
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“Individuals with the most potential for high academic achievement in mathematics and science . . . are generally considered to be those students who represent the top few centiles in ability, especially mathematics ability.”
Benbow and Arjmand (1992), Journal of Educational Psychology
“ . . . substantially fewer females than males . . . score in the upper tails of the mathematics and science ability distributions and hence are poised to succeed in the sciences.”
Hedges and Nowell (1995), Science
“ . . . if we wish to increase the proportion of women in the sciences, we must do something to change the underlying mathematical-attribute distribution.”
Paglin and Rufolo (1990), Journal of Labor Economics
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Under this model:
• Important to recruit most of the capable individuals
• Efficiency requires attention to demographic composition
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Under this alternative model:
• Less concern about efficiency, more concern about equity & diversity of perspectives
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Data: Representative Samples of High School Seniors (1972 and 1980 cohorts)
Grade 12: Math Score (CTM)
6-7 years later: *Educational Attainment*College Major
Earlier Cohort Also Includes: *SAT-Math score *Labor Market Outcomes at Age 32
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Definition:
EMS:*Engineering*Math*Computer Science *Chemistry*Physics*Astronomy
Focus on Bachelor’s College Graduates
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White WomenWhite Men
EMS BA
Rate
35 %
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.35
.35
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All College GraduatesProbability Distribution Functions
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EMS College GraduatesProbability Distribution Functions
1972 Women
50 75 Math Percentile
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Result 1: Most white male EMS participants had 12th grade math scores
well below the “top few centiles”
50 75 Math Percentile
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Using SAT-M scores instead:
Paglin and Rufolo (1990) suggest that EMS participants are drawn from the 651-800 range of SAT-Math scores.
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Result 2: Less than one-third of white men in the EMS workforce have SAT-M scores above 650. (Table 3)
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Are Lower Scoring Participants REALLY in the Science and Engineering Workforce?
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Are Lower Scoring Participants REALLY in the Science and Engineering Workforce?
Hourly Earnings at Age 32
Math Score
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Can This Model Be Saved?
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Equation 4
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Maximum Likelihood:
Given the observed data, what is the most likely combination of H and ?
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If is near 1, H will be near the 60th percentile:
If is small enough, H might be near the 90th percentile:
Maximum Likelihood:
Given the observed data, what is the most likely combination of H and ?
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Maximum Likelihood:
Given the observed data, what is the most likely combination of H and ?
Result:
= .20 (quite a bit of unobserved ability)H is at the 78th percentile of the white male ability distribution.(Table 5, column 1)
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Predicted EMS Participation:
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Other Groups: Actual EMS Participation from Census & Survey of College Graduates Data,
Predictions from Base Year HSB Distributions(Preliminary Results)
Actual/Predicted
EMS Participation
Men
1980 cohort
Women
1980 cohort
White 1.1 .5
Hispanic 1.1 .6
Black 1.0 1.1
Asian 1.7 1.3
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