Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of...
-
Upload
vernon-oconnor -
Category
Documents
-
view
214 -
download
1
Transcript of Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of...
![Page 1: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and
Visualization of Network Data
Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,
Philip V. Fellman, &Pard Teekasap
Southern New Hampshire UniversityInternational Business Modeling
Laboratory
![Page 2: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Nature and Severity of the Threat Pirate Attacks are Largely Confined to 4 Major Areas
![Page 3: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Piracy is Increasing• In 2009, maritime piracy reached its highest level since the IMB's
Piracy Reporting Center began tracking piracy incidents in 1992, surpassing levels from 2008, which was the previous record year. Of the forty-nine successful hijackings in 2008, forty-two occurred off the coast of Somalia, including the capture of an oil supertanker, the Sirius Star.
• In 2009, that number rose to forty-seven, despite reduced global shipping and a multi-country naval military force aimed at stemming piracy in the region.
• Overall attacks off the coast of Somalia represented about half of all maritime piracy globally according to the IMB. Though Somalia gets the lion's share of attention on global piracy, the IMB says incidents off the coast of Nigeria, which largely involve robberies rather than hijackings, were more likely to include violence against the crew than anywhere else in the world in 2009. In other areas of the world, including Indonesia, piracy dropped.
![Page 4: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
![Page 5: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Historical Attacks on Vessels Underway
![Page 6: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Attack Detail 1998-2008
![Page 7: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Methodology: Initial Approach - Social Network Analysis
• Data Visualization based on arrays of network nodes and vertices
• Differentiation between small world and random networks
• “Cleaning up” IMO raw data to eliminate data points below the threshold of interest.
• Development of a seven point ordinal scale for severity of attacks.
![Page 8: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Total Density = 0.6458
Two-Mode Network: Time and Location of Maritime Piracy attacks in 1998
![Page 9: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Two-Mode Network: Time and Location of Maritime Piracy attacks in 2003
Total Density = 0.6759
![Page 10: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Two-Mode Network: Time and Location of Maritime Piracy attacks for 2008 (October)
Total Density = 0.7000
![Page 11: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Maritime Piracy Severity Index
![Page 12: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Small World Networks: Formal Definitions (Clustering Coefficients)
From Some Considerations on Six Degrees of Separation from A Theoretical Point of ViewNorihito Toyota arXiv.org > physics > arXiv:0803.2399
![Page 13: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Output of Network Analysis for the Connection Between Location and Intensity of Piracy Attacks
![Page 14: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Output of Network Analysis for the Connection Between Location and Weapon Type Employed in Piracy Attacks
![Page 15: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Output of Network Analysis for the Connection Between Location and Number of Pirates Engaged in the Attack
![Page 16: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Limitations of the Study
• Difficult to determine whether piracy in fact connects significantly with terrorism outside a formal legal definition (Maritime Terrorism – Risk and Liability, Rand Corp. 2006) http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2006/RAND_MG520.pdf
• Increase In Piracy And Terrorism At Sea; Little Evidence Supports Fear That The Two Crimes Are Merging: The Maritime Dimension of International Security Terrorism, Piracy, and Challenges for the United States (Rand Corp. 2008 http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG697/
• Piracy Is Terrorism, Published: Dec December 5, 2008
• AT FIRST GLANCE, THE CORRELATION BETWEEN PIRACY AND TERRORISM seems a stretch. Yet much of the basis of this skepticism can be traced to romantic and inaccurate notions about piracy. An examination of the actual history of the crime reveals startling, even astonishing, parallels to contemporary international terrorism. Viewed in its proper historical context, piracy emerges as a clear and powerful precedent.
![Page 17: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Ideal Comparative Methodology:The Developmental Dynamics of Terrorist Organizations
Aaron Clauset and Kristian Skrede GleditschThe Santa Fe Institute
• This study employs open source data on frequency and severity of terrorist attacks
• Worldwide database of 3,143 fatal attacks• Calendar Date, Severity and Name of Organization
if known (341 Organizations Identified)• The study quantifies the frequency and severity of
a group’s attacks over its lifetime using a normalized development curve.
![Page 18: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
![Page 19: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Terrorist Attacks – Developmental Curves for Individual Organizations: Cumulative Frequency Increases
![Page 20: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Land-Based Terrorist Events: Expected Intensity Does Not Increase over time -- Cumulative Damage is only a product of the overall
number of incidents, not of increasing severity
Observed vs. Expected Severity Cumulative Severity of Events
![Page 21: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Comparative Findings Between Patterns of Maritime Piracy and Land Based Terrorism
• Because we don’t have clear group identifiers as do Clauset and Gleditsch we segmented our data into the four main clusters of activity.
• While they observed a developmental curve in the activity of land-based terrorist organizations with respect to frequency of attacks, our analysis of the data did not find a similar curve for frequency and both groups failed to exhibit such a curve for intensity of attacks.
![Page 22: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Intensity of Attacks (Number of Attacks)
Based on Intensity of Attack Index
![Page 23: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Somalia (1998-2008)
Cumulative Number of Attacks on Vessels Underway
∆t (days)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
CUMEVENTSOMALIA
DELT
ATIM
ESOMALIA
DELTATIMESOMALIA vs. CUMEVENTSOMALIA
![Page 24: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Malacca Straits (1998-2008)
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 20 40 60 80 100
CUMEVENTS
DELTATIM
E1
DELTATIME1 vs. CUMEVENTS
Cumulative Number of Attacks on Vessels Underway
∆t (days)
![Page 25: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Indonesia (1998-2010)
0
40
80
120
160
200
0 40 80 120 160 200
CUMULATIVEVENTSINDO
DELTATIM
EIN
DO
DELTATIMEINDO vs. CUMULATIVEVENTSINDO
∆t (days)
Cumulative Number of Attacks on Vessels Underway
![Page 26: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Nigeria (1998-2008)
Cumulative Number of Attacks on Vessels Underway
∆t (days)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 10 20 30 40 50
CUMULATIVENIGERIA
DELT
ATIM
ENIG
ERIA
DELTATIMENIGERIA vs. CUMULATIVENIGERIA
![Page 27: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Piracy Follows Seasonal Patterns
• However, for each region, there is a seasonality pattern based on the frequency of the attacks
• The following charts show the longitudinal data for the seasonal frequency of attacks for Somalia, Malacca Straits, Indonesia, and Nigeria.
![Page 28: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Somalia
![Page 29: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Malacca Straits
![Page 30: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Indonesia
![Page 31: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Nigeria
![Page 32: Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat,](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062805/5697bff21a28abf838cbc063/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Conclusion
• It is difficult to make strong inferences about the behavior of piracy organizations, even using advanced tools of statistical physics similar to those used to model sunspot activity.
• The observed behavioral regularities still require additional research.