Unconventional Oil and Gas: Myths, Facts and Global … Club Zrich 25 F… · Conventional Oil vs...
Transcript of Unconventional Oil and Gas: Myths, Facts and Global … Club Zrich 25 F… · Conventional Oil vs...
Conventional Oil vs U.S. Shale: Where do we go from now?
Unconventional Oil and Gas: Myths, Facts and Global Implications
Peter Burri
SASEG: Swiss Association of Energy Geoscientists
Commodity Club Zürich23 February 2015
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas 1
The dimensions of the energy challenge I
Energy demand will double within the next 40 – 50 y
Assuming that this demand is supplied with nuclear plants: requires one new 1 GW nuclear plant every day for 40 y
Result: 365 Nuclear Plants / year, presently some 440 nuclear plants worldwide
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas 2
The dimensions of the energy challenge II
2010 power demand in Switzerland was rising by 4 %
These 4% represented 50x the total installed photovoltaic capacity in Switzerland
Study Canton Neuchâtel 2014: Covering the roofs of all buildings in canton with solar panels would cover 28% of electricity needs
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas 3
The dimensions of the energy challenge III
Global Primary Energy demand growth 2002 – 2012
Growth total + 30 %
Growth of renewables w.o. hydro + 390 %
Todayʼs share of renewables w.o. hydro 2.5%
BUT
Renewables covered only 6 % of the total growth in energy. 74% of growth was fossil energy !
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas 4
Lesson:
Renewables are still far from covering growth in energy
No single energy source will solve the world energy needs in this century
We need a broad mix
… and much more energy efficiency and energy savings
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas 5
Themes
What is unconventional gas and oil ?
Unconventional Techology: chances and risks
Impact on US
Global impact
Gas and environment
Implications for global energy supply
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas 6
Conventional and unconventionalOil- and Gas Exploration
7source: P. Burri and W. Leu 2012Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015
Oil and Gas Shales - the geological revolution
Quelle: USGS, 2011
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas 8
New geological concept: Most oil and gas is left behind in the source rock - huge new volumes
Shale Gas Production
USA 2013
New Shale Gas wells : > 50ʻ000
Shale Gas
Production 2012: 550 Billion m3 (about 170 x annual demand CH)
Quelle: BGR, 2011
ETH Zürich Dez 18: Unconv. Gas -Fracking: globaler Impact 9Peter Burri (SASEG)
Fracfluid: 99.5% water and sand0.5% additives
Unconventionals: Criticism
Myths and facts
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas 10
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas 11
Sieht aus wie im Krieg. In den USA sind Bohrungen mit Fracking nichts Aussergewöhnliches. In der Schweiz lösen solche Szenarien Angst aus.
Example of typical media reporting on fracturing
Drilling platform today
ETH Zürich Dez 18: Unconv. Gas -Fracking: globaler Impact Peter Burri (SASEG) 12
Drilling ControlroomNorwegian N-Sea
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas13
Criticisms: Fracking pollutes Drinking water
Depth AquifersThousands of feet of Rock between fracs and aquifers
Vertical extension of fracs Barnett shale
“Gasland” version: no relationship to reality
NB. No toxic additives used today in Europe
Criticisms: Methane leaks into soil and water
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas 14
New York
Natural gas seeps: common also in Switzerland
Peter Burri (SASEG) 15Natural gas seeps Giswil OW
Bilder R. Wyss
The media-effective gas in film "Gasland" comes from coal seams and has nothing to do with fraccing
PS: The filmmaker knew it !PS: The filmmaker knew it !
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas 16
Drillsite 0.04 km²
Criticism: Excessive Land Use
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas 17
Surface area< 10 000 m2
Subsurface: up to10 km2
Up to 30 wells perlocation
old Method New Method
Shale Gas Cluster Production Pennsylvania
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Horizontal drilling - Typical reach of clusters
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Drilling Cluster3 km horizontal
Deviation up to 12 kmtechnically possible
Zürich HBhf
The area of Zurich could be produced from only one location
Gas Production has a small footprint
Germany: Average gas production cluster of 20 wells: ≈ 30 000 m3 natural gas/hour = 300 000 KWh on an area of max. 0.01 km2.
For the same amount of energy we need alternatively:
400 km2 of mais crop for biogas
200 large windturbines covering an area of 25 km2
19 km2 of solar panels
Similar relationship for oil production
source : erdgasproduktion-in-deutschland.de
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas 20
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas 21Peter Burrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrriiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii (((S(((((((((( ASEG):):):):):):):):):):):):):):):):):):):)::):):):)) UUUUUnconveeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeentnntntnnntntntntntnntntnnntnnnnnnnnn ional Oill aaaaaaaaaanaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa d Gas
Criticism: Fracking increases green house emissions
Source: US EIA , EPA Methane
-15% in 4y
- 12% in 5y
Conclusions on risks of hydraulic fracturing
Environmental accidents have occurred. They are unacceptable and harm the industry reputation.
But: All the problems can be overcome with existing practices
Safe and environmentally friendly unconventional production is possible AND IS DONE TODAY
There is today no scientific reason to ban hydraulic fracturing.
Solution: clear regulations, standards and control
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas 22
All scientific institutions with relevant knowhowreject a ban of hydraulic fracturing
AU: Australian Australian Academy of Science:
CH: Akademien der Wissenschaften Schweiz
Eidgenössische Geologische Fachkommission:
D: BGR (Bundesamt für Geologie und Rohstoffe)
Akademie der Technischen Wissenschaften
Oberbergamt Clausthal, deutsche Bergämter
EU: EASAC (European Academies Science Advisory Council)
F: BRGM (Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières
Académie des Sciences:
Société Géologique de France
UK: British Geological Survey
The Geological Society:
Royal Society and Royal Academy of Engineering:
USA: US Geological Survey
US Environmental Protection Agency23Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas
The problem of public perception: Chemistry is bad
Representative Poll in EU
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas 24
Should the use of Dihydrogen Monoxide be forbidden in the EU ?
No
Yes
Donʼt knowH2O
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
1017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0 0%
BCM/y
6%
11%
17%
23%
Source: CERA, WoodMackenzie
WoodMac 2007
CERA 2007
WoodMac 2010
CERA 2010
% of US gas demand
Actual imports
Forecast US Gas Imports (LNG)
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 26Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas
Gas Imports/Exports US
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2 1975 1995 2015 2035 2045
Actual
Imports
Exports
AEO Forecast 2005
AEO Forecast 2014
Natural Gas Net Imports(trillion cubic feet)
Source AEO NYSE 2015
US Gas Production 1990 - 2040
20 March Gazprom Int Berlin Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Gas -Revolution in
Exploration 28
Share unconventionals 2014 > 2/3
N-America: Domestic Oil Production / Demand 2005-25
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas 292013
Global impact
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas 30
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 31
Unconventional Hydrocarbons are not an American geological anomaly
Modified after Halliburton 2009
Source: Economist July 2012Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas
Growth global gas reserves (incl. conventional)
Reach of Gas Resources: 250 -300 y (at present consumption)
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 32Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas Source: IEA 2011
The end of the global oil supply growth?
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas 33
* High cost oil (>80%)
Growth will come to a halt in 2015 if prices remain < 60$/BBL*
**
Top 5 contributors to growth 2014
source EIA 2015
Modified from T. Ahlbrandt 2012
What happened to the Peak Oil and –Gas?: Peak will be demand- not supply-controlled
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 34Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas
no longer in line with facts
most likely
Gas and the global environment
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas 35
Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas
BeijingJan 2014
Beijing Summer
Fine dust concentrations(NZZ March 2014/ WHO):
WHO limit: 25 mikro g/lSwitzerland: 5-15
Beijing:Regularly >100 micro g/lMax: 993 (2014)
Globally 7 Mio deaths/y from air pollution (WHO)
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 36
AVES Schaffhausen 23 Oktober 2014 3737
Coal
Electricity is not white:Most of it comes from coal and nuclear
Coal is the single most dangerous energy source for health and environment.
IEAPeter Burri (SASEG)
Last 10y Coal consumption grew2-3 x faster than Gas6-8 x faster than Oil
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas 38Peter Burri (SSASA EG): UUUUUUUUncncncononononononveveveveventioooooooooooonaaaananananananananannananallllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll OiOOiOiOiOiOiOiOiOiOiOiOiOiOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOiOOOOOOillllllllllll anananananannanananananannananaandddddddddddddddddddddddddddd Gas 38
IndiaNew and planned coal power plants
Source: coalswarm.org
Coal is globally the fastest growing fossil fuel
AVES Schaffhausen 23 Oktober 2014 Peter Burri (SASEG) 39AVES Schaffhausen 23 Oktober 2014 Peter Burri (S((( ASEG))))
CO2 Emissions worldwide
CH ca 45 Mio t/J
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas 40CoCoCoCooCoCoCoCoCCoCoCoCCoCoCoCoCoCoCoCoCoCoCoCoCCCCoCooCoCoCoCoCoCoCCoCoCoCoCoCoCoCoCoCoCoCoCooCoCoCoCoCoCoCoCoCC mmmmmmmmmm odity ClCCCClCClCCClClClClCClClClCCCllClCCCCCCClCCCCCCCClCCClCClCCCllCCClllC ububububububububuubububububububububububububububububububububububuububububububububububbubububbubububbbubbubb ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZüüürüüüüüü ich Febrbrbrbrbbbbbbrbrbrbrbrbrbrbrbrbrrbrbbbbbbbb uauuauuuauuauauauauauauauauauauauauauuuauuuuauauauauuauauauauuuauauuuaauuauauuuauauauaryryryryryryryryryyryyryryrryyryyryryryryyyyyryryryryyyyryy 222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222015 PePePePePePePePePePePePeeePeeePePePePePeePePeePeePePeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeePeeeeeteteteteteteteteteteteteteteteteteteteteteteeteteteteteetetetetetteteteteteteeeteteeeeteteeeeteeetteeerrrrrrr rrrrrrrrrrrrrr BuBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB rri (SASSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSEGGEGEGEGEGEGEGEGEGEGEGEGEGGEEGEGEGEEGEGEGEGEGEEGEGEGGEGGGEGEGEGEGEGEGEGGGEGEGEGGEGEGEGEGEGEGEGGEGGGGEGEEGEGEG):):)):):):):):):):):):)):)):)::):):):):):):):)))::))):):):):))):):):))):):):):)))::):)))) UUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUnconventntntntntnntnntntnttntnntnnnntntntntntnntnntnnnnnnnnnntnntntnn ioioioioooioioioioioooiooooooioooioioiooooooooioooooioiooooooiiooiooii nannnananananananaaanananananananannnnnnannnnanannnnaaaaallll OiOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO l and GaGaGaGaGGaGaGGaGaGaGaGaGaGaGaGaaGaGaGaGaGaGaaGaGGaGaGaGGaGaGGaGaGGGaGGGaaaGaGGaaGaGGGaGaG ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss 404040404440440400004040404040440000000040404400000000000000
Substitution of coal by gas in powergenworks: Example US
Source: US DOE, EPA
Absolute CO2 reduction:2008- 2013: - 12 %
Gas Production in Europe and Environment
Gas covers 25% of the energy supply of Europe.
For environmental reasons it makes sense to produce as much gas as possible within Europe:
Highest safety and environmental standards (we control !)
Short transport distances (not 4000 km from Siberia or Algeria): less loss of energy, less CO2 Emissions
Negligible risk of Methane leaks
Environmentalists should fight for a maximum of domestic gas production
Germany does the opposite - CO2 emissions are increasing
AVES Schaffhausen 23 Oktober 2014 Peter Burri (SASEG) 41
World Energy consumption 2035 by fuel
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas 42
2035fossil fuels 81% today 86%
Coal consumption remains main threat for global environment
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas 43
Only gas can solve this problem in the short to mid term
Gas Bubble - good or bad for environment?
1. Abundant worldwide gas (and oil) reserves are a reality. World Gas resources will last centuries, not decades.
2. Gas is by far the cleanest fossil fuel
3. Two possible reactions:
Ban unconventionals: resulting in rising global CO2 levels and much worse air quality
Use gas together with renewables to massively reduce emissions through substitution of coal (and partly oil)
The alternative to gas is COAL - with all consequences
Commodity Club Zürich February 2015 Peter Burri (SASEG): Unconventional Oil and Gas 44
AVES Schaffhausen 23 Oktober 2014 45
AVES Schaffhauuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuussssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeennnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn 2222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222233333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333 Oktober 2014 4555555555555444444444444445454555555555544444444444445555554444444445555554444444444445555555444444444444455555444444444444555555544444444444445555544444444444444445554444444444444444555554554444444444444445455545455544444444444454455555554555444444454444445455545545444444545444455554545454545454444444444455454545454444444555454545444444444454545545544444454544445545455554454544555554454545554554544444445445555454545554544545454545454554545455454444545554555554445555555
and a glance at the biggest contribution to energy demand:
…SWITCHING OFF
Peter Burri (SASEG)
Thank you for your interest