UNCLASSIFIED

Captain Tim Gallaudet, U.S. NavyDeputy Director, Task Force Climate Change

Remarks for the SIO/LANL Workshop on Sea Level RiseMay 2010

Sea Level Rise and the U.S. Navy

UNCLASSIFIED

Sea Level Rise Update

1870-1992 2007 IPCC AR4

21st Century Sea Level Rise

Observation:~2mm/yr

Accelerating Ice Sheet Mass Loss

The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009

University of Colorado, Boulder, 2009

1993-2006 2009 2010-2100

Douglas, 1997

Observation:~3.1mm/yr

Tide Stations

Satellite Observations

Projection:~2-6mm/yr

Projection:10-20mm/yr?

Observation:>50 Gt/yr

?

UNCLASSIFIED

Navy Sea Level Rise Concerns

Physical Impacts

Inundation Wetlands Erosion patterns & rates Surface/ground water supplies Water tables Tidal flows & currents Storm & flood damage

Challenges

Infrastructure Mission capabilities Training & testing lands Transportation means/facilities

Opportunities

Adaptation partnerships Recapitalization incentive Impacts on adversaries

Directly impacts readiness, strategic access, & influence

UNCLASSIFIED

Science Needs

Quantify & reduce uncertainties to optimize investment decisions

Thermal expansion Ice sheet mass loss Glacier melt River runoff Subsidence/uplift Local currents Atmospheric pressure

Sea Level Rise Adaptation

In-water structures Infrastructure protection Water supply protection Erosion control Environmental protection

local to global spatial scales,hourly to millennial temporal scales

environmental planning & civil/ocean engineering

UNCLASSIFIED 12

Navy Initiatives

U.S. Navy Photo

FY10

Navy is fully mission-capable through 21st century

FY13-14 FY11-12Arctic CBA

Arctic CBASea level rise adaptationIn Climate Change Roadmap

Navy 2014 Budget Addresses Sea Level RiseAdaptation

POM-14 NSP

POM-14 NSPClimate assessment

Climate assessmentPOM-14 SPP

POM-14 SPP

POM-14

POM-14

Execute Navy Budget

Installations Identify S&T/R&D Needs

Sea Level RiseAddressed in Navy Wargames***

*** Indicates recurring action

Implement new cooperativeadaptation partnerships

White House Interagency AdaptationTask Force***

OSD SERDPSsea Level Rise Impact studies

Implement Sea level riseadaptation studyrecommendations

Naval Studies Boardclimate change study

Formalize /newcooperative adaptation partnerships

InstallationResearch & Development

Initiate cooperative adaptation partnerships

Interagencypartnership forair-ocean-ice observation& prediction

Sea Level RiseAdaptation Study

Science &Security Implications In FormalNavy EductionSea Level Rise

Included in FleetPlanning