UNCLASSIFIED APEX 39 CAPE Priorities & Opportunities Jamie Morin OSD CAPE 9 September 2014 PLCC B6.
-
Upload
bethany-oconnor -
Category
Documents
-
view
218 -
download
0
Transcript of UNCLASSIFIED APEX 39 CAPE Priorities & Opportunities Jamie Morin OSD CAPE 9 September 2014 PLCC B6.
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
APEX 39CAPE Priorities & Opportunities
Jamie MorinOSD CAPE
9 September 2014PLCC B6
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
• Introduction to CAPE
• PPBE Process & Building PB15
• PB15 Summary
• New Defense Strategy
• Expected Themes in PB16
• End Game Speculation
• Continuing Challenges
2
Agenda
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
• Independent advisor to SECDEF and DEPSECDEF on programmatic resource allocation issues and decisions
• Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara established “Systems Analysis” in 1961 (McNamara’s “Whiz Kids”) to analyze nearly every aspect of the DoD budget
• Name changed to Program Analysis & Evaluation (PA&E) in 1970s
• Weapons Systems Acquisition Reform Act (WSARA) of 2009 changed the name to Cost Assessment & Program Evaluation (CAPE)– Focus on reducing cost overruns and schedule delays (ICEs, AoAs, etc.)
• Play a key role in the Planning, Programming, Budgeting, & Execution (PPBE) process– Links the defense strategy to resources– “Big P” versus “little p”
3
Introduction to CAPE
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
• CAPE’s focus is on FY16 and beyond (informed by what’s happening today
• Strategic Choices & Management Review (SCMR) was completed in the summer– Provided insight that was used to adjust Service toplines in fiscal guidance
• Fiscal guidance emphasized that we have less of a need for large ground forces, but that we should protect forces needed for Asia/Pacific conflicts
4
PPBE Process & Building PB15
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
• Navy– Efficiencies– Cruiser modifications (innovative)
• Air Force– Cut A-10s and legacy modification; Protected F-35, Tanker & Bomber– KC-10s
• Army– GCV– Helo restructure– Force structure targets
• Marine Corps– Focused on readiness
5
PB15 Summary
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED 6
PB15 ToplineWe’re still living with uncertainty
$450
$475
$500
$525
$550
$575
$600
$625
$650
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
($Bi
llion
s)
$26BFund What do we know?
•Continuing Resolution•Election year•New defense strategy•Reduced reliance on OCO What don’t we know?•No new budget deal•What topline OMB will submit•How to address unfunded $$•Long term health of force
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
• QDR & PB15 Strategy
• Attempt to measure delta in sequestration in terms of the strategy
• Secretary’s speech suggests a much less capable force– How much less capable?– In what areas?– What can we do about it?– How do we maximize the performance of a sequestered force?
7
New Defense Strategy
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
• Budget disconnects
• Uncertainties– Topline levels– BRAC authority– Compensation– Other unknowns
• What we know– Continuing Resolution likely in the fall– Elections this fall– Debt ceiling suspended until March 2015
• What we DON’T know– No new budget deal– Long term health of force (depends on where we are in the out-years)
8
Expected Themes in PB16
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
• Submit a higher, non-sequestered budget level
• Need a plan to prepare a budget at at sequestered budget levels if we do not get the topline we want
9
End Game Speculation
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED 10
Balancing Challenges
Fiscal Uncertainty•Topline•Timing•OCO•Action on prior requests
Internal Cost Pressures•People•Acquisition•Operations and Support
Strategic & Operational Challenges•Shift to Asia – away game, geography, & A2AD•EM Spectrum Dominance•Commercial technological pacing vs DoD OODA Loop•Adversary cost imposition
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
BACKUP
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED 12
CAPE Org Chart
DIRECTOR, CAPEJamie M. Morin
Principal Deputy DirectorLtGen Robert E. Schmidle Jr.
Land ForcesNaval ForcesTactical Air ForcesProjection ForcesIrregular WarfareC4 and Information ProgramsStrategic Defensive & Space PrgmsForce and Infrastructure AnalysisIntelligence, Surveillance, & Rec.
Program EvaluationDeputy Director
Scott Comes
FrontOfficeTeam
Economic and Manpower AnalysisWeapon Systems Cost AnalysisAdvanced Systems Cost AnalysisOperating and Support Cost Analysis
Analysis & IntegrationDeputy Director
Vacant
Program AnalysisSimulation Analysis CenterForce Structure & Risk Assessment
Program, Data, & Enterprise Services
Deputy DirectorJoseph Nogueira
Enterprise ServicesJoint Data SupportProgram Resources & Information Systems Management
Cost AssessmentDeputy Director
Rick Burke