A7-AI141031 ARCTECLINC COLUMBIA MD F/9 15/5GREA LAKES/ST. LAWRENCE SEAWAY REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION STUDYI --ETC(U)DEC SI DACW3-3-C-DOGO

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Great Lakes/St. Lawrence Seaway Regional

Transportation Study; Analysis of Freight Rates Final1:0z 6. PERFORMING ORG. REPORT NUM13ER

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A19. KEY WORDS (Continue on reverseside if necessary and identify by block number)

railroad transportation coststruck Great Lakes; general c an ...

*: A1 ocean freight rates grain - , i pd. •laker freight rates iron ore; steam coal

a 20. ABSTRACT ( Cotfoue - reverse .* ft t eoweap sd identify by block number)

_ This report is the documentation of the freight rate data base for anevaluation of NED transportation benefits for GL/SLS navigation improvements.This report provides the Great Lakes total logistics cost and a similar cost

*for an alternate transportation routing. Additional costs per ton become thebasis for estimation of benefits for alleviating future lock capacityconstraints.

DD I FO 143 EDITION OF, NOV6S IS OBSOLETE

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Great Lakes/St. LawrenceSe awayREGIONAL TRANSPORTATION STUDYFOR

S oU.S. Army Corps of EngineersI. .

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IF WEV4 RATES

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1 ..IBOOZ.ALLEN &.HAMILTON INCIN ACIATON WITH .

£82 02 16 1991

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THIS DOCUMENT IS BEST QUALITYPRACTICABLE. THE COPY FURNISHEDTO DTIC CONTAINED A SIGNIFICANTNUMBER OF PAGES WHICH DO NOTREPRODUCE LEGIBLY.

GREAT LAKES/ST. LAWRENCE SEAWAYREGIONAL TRANSPORTATION STUDY

ANALYSIS OF FREIGHT RATES

DECEMBER 1981

for

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

by

Booz.Allen & Hamilton Inc.in association with

ARCTEC, Inc.

I

I ' + ....;'-

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PageNumber

I. INTRODUCTION I-i

II. SUMMARY II-i

III. METHODOLOGY FOR COLLECTION OF COMPONENT RATES III-1

1. Iron Ore 111-22. Coal 111-3

3. Grain 111-54. Other Bulk Commodities 111-65. Steel and Other General Cargo 111-6

IV. VALUE OF GOODS IN TRANSIT IV-1

V. UPDATE OF THE RATE FILE V-1

APPENDIX A - General Cargo Rates

APPENDIX B - Iron and Steel Rates

APPENDIX C - Iron Ore Rates

APPENDIX D - Coal Rates

APPENDIX E - Other Bulk Rates

APPENDIX F - Grain Rates

iii

I. INTRODUCTION

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is responsible for

maintaining navigability in U.S. rivers, waterways, andharbors. The Corps currently maintains a navigationsystem of 25,000 miles of improved channels and 219 locksand dams connecting large regions of the country.

Feasibility analysis and planning that precede lock andchannel construction and maintenance are integralcomponents of navigation system projects. The GreatLakes/St. Lawrence Seaway Regional Transportation Study isan element of this planning process.

The objective of the GL/SLS Regional Transportation

Study is to develop an up-to-date, working analytical toolfor economic analysis of GL/SLS transportation system

improvements. The near-term uses of study information arefeasibility studies of three Great Lakes navigation systemimprovements. These studies are the following:

The St. Lawrence Additional Locks Study, whichwill determine the adequacy of the existing locksand channels in the U.S. section of the seaway inlight of present and future needs.

The Great Lakes Connecting Channels and Harbor

Study, which will determine the feasibility ofproviding navigation channel, harbor and lock

improvements to permit transit of vessels up tothe maximum size permitted by the possiblereplacement locks at Sault Ste. Marie.

The Great Lakes/St. Lawrence Seaway NavigationSeason Extension Study, which considers thefeasibility of means of extending the navigationseason on the entire system.

The Regional Transportation Study is organized in two

phases. Phase I has the following elements:

Development of cargo flow forecasts for the Great

Lakes system

Development of data bases required for the

eva.luation of national economic development (NED)benefits and costs of navigation system

Aimprovements

'1 1-1

Evaluation of lock system performance and abilityto process future cargo flows

Evaluation of the performance and economic

feasibility of improvements to increase the

capacity of the system.

"hase II of the study assesses the regional economic,social, intermodal and energy use impacts of alternativeimprovements.

This report documents the development of one of thedata bases required for the evaluation of the NED benefits

of navigation system improvements. This data base is afile of freight rate information. These data are used to

determine the additional transportation costs which would

be incurred by Great Lakes shippers if the system reachedcapacity and traffic were forced to use other modes androutes.

1-

! 1-2

_ _ 4'>

II. SUMMARY

A file of freight rate information has been developedfor the major commodity movements using the Great Lakessystem. Rail, truck, barge, laker and ocean rates werecollected in order to identify total transportation coststor current Great Lakes routes and for the least expensivealternative routes.

The remainder of this report contains the followingchapters:

• Methodology for collection of component rates* Value of goods in transit• Update of the rate file.

The rates are contained in a computer file which wasprovided under separate cover.

[I

II-1

I

UI

III. METHODOLOGY FOR COLLECTION OF COMPONENT RATES

The collection of component freight rates involved thefollowing steps:

Identification of port-to-port shipments fromWaterborne Commerce Statistics

Estimation of true origin and destination andspecific commodity for these shipments

Identification of freight rates currently usedfor these movements

Establishment of an alternative route forshipment if the Great Lakes system were atcapacity and not available

Estimation of freight rates for these alternativeroutes.

There are several sources of inaccuracy associatedwith using actual rates at a single point in time toestimate transportation cost savings.* These are asfollows:

Rates fluctuate over time according to marketconditions. At the present time many freightrates have been quite volatile, for example:

- Since passage of the Staggers Act whichchanged rail ratemaking requirements,commodity rates for many hiqh-volume coalmovements have been replaced by contractrates

- Laker rates have been depressed, and someships laid up, because steel and iron oreshipments have decreased significantly

Rail and barge qrain rates, which are highlyseasonal, have been impacted by the Russiangrain embargo and the midwestern drought.

Freight rates for this assignment were collectedbetween the period November 1980 to May 1981.

III-1

Liner rates to Europe were subject tointense competition between conferencemembers and an independent; two carriershave withdrawn from the trade.

Rates vary significantly depending on weightminimums, actual volume shipped, specificcommodity description, origin and destination.Every attempt was made to identify the rate atwhich traffic is moving, and to avoid artificialor "paper" rates. However, there is no way toconfirm that a rate extracted from a tariff isthe rate at which the goods are shipped.

Little or no tonnage is currently moving alongmany of the alternative routes identified forbulk commodities. Rates were estimated for thesemovements either by railroads directly or byusing rates for similar movements. While it isfelt that these rates are representative of therates that would actually be charged, there is noway to validate the rates.

This chapter is organized into sections dealing withthe following specific commodities:

Iron oreCoalGrainOther bulk commoditiesSteel and other general cargo.

Each section identifies the general sources for ratequotations, the method for identification of interiororigins and destinations, and the definition ofalternative routes. The six appendices to this reportprovide worksheets showing the development of each throughrate from component rates, and provide tariff citationsfor all component rates.

1. IRON ORE

The sources consulted for rates include the following:

Skillings Mining Review (rail and lake rates)Bessemer and Lake Erie Railroad (rail rates).

Rates from the Mesabi range are standardized, sodifferentiation of source was not necessary. While thedestination of many ore shipments is waterside, the oreshipped through certain receiving ports is shipped tosteel mills located inland. These ports, and the relatedinterior destinations, are shown in Table III-1.

111-2

TABLE III-1Interior Ore Destinations

Receiving Port Interior Destination

(percent of shipments)

Huron Pittsburgh and Wheeling

Toledo Middletown (50%)Ashland (50%)

Ashtabula Pittsburgh (75%)Youngstown (25%)

Conneaut Pittsburgh (75%)Aliquippa, PA (25%)

Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, GL/SLS TrafficForecast Study, 1976, (based on the One PercentRail Waybill Sample).

Alternative routes are as follows:

Current Route Alternative Route

Lake Michigan destinations Rail from upper lakesfrom upper lakes

Other destinations from Labrador ore via coastalupper lakes ports

Labrador ore via the lakes Labrador ore via coastalports

These alternative routes are the next most costlyalternative. In most cases alternative routes arepresently in use and current rates are realistic.

2. COAL

The sources consulted for rates included the following:

RailroadsPublished rail tariffsLake carriersUtilities.

111-3

Mines were grouped into the following mining areas:

Western Pennsylvania• Ohio

West Virginia• Eastern Kentucky

Western KentuckySouthern IllinoisMontanaWyoming.

Actual movements from specific mines to ports or powerplants were identified from FPC Form 423. This formidentified origins and destinations for rate requests andprovided an indication of the areas providing coal to eachport. Weighted mine-to-port rail rates were constructedusually involving the rates from two to five mines.

There are three major flow patterns involving GreatLakes locks:

• Lake Erie ports to Lake Superior destinations

Lake Erie ports to Canadian Lake Ontariodestinations

Western coal via Duluth-Superior to the St. ClairRiver.

The alternative route for all three is sourcing fromthe same mine, and rail to point of consumption. There iscurrently little coal moving by rail over these routestoday, so rates were estimated.

The method for estimating these rates was based on acomparison to Class 100 rates. Railroad rates aredetermined in two ways: (1) by commodity rates, which arerates quoted for specific commodities and movements, or(2) by groupina commodities into a limited number ofgroups or classes and prescribing rates on the variousclasses. A freioht classification assigns a "rating" toeach article or commodity. The ratings are expressed inrelative terms, relative to a base rating called Class100. A tariff assigns a rate to each "rating" for asoecific origin and destination point. The Class 100 raterefers to the rate for all articles assigned to Class 100moving between the points in question.

The method for estimating rates involved the followingsteps:

Identify rates for current volume movements whichare similar in terms of origin, destination anddistance

111-4

Establish the percent of the Class 100 rate foreach rate

Identify the Class 100 rate for the required

movement

Use the percent of Class 100 factor to estimate avolume rate.

3. GRAIN

The sources consulted for rates included the following:

• Drewry's shipping statistics (ocean charter rates)• Railroads (ICG, Conrail)

• Grain merchants (Andersons, Continental, Cargill)• Grain Terminals Association• Sunflower Seed Exporters Association• Minneapolis Grain Exchange

* Chicago Board of Trade• Great Lakes Grain, Inc.* Transportation Institute of Fargo, N.D.

Grains usually move from farm to export port in a

series of successive elevations. At each elevation thegrain loses its identity insofar as export grain cannot betraced with certainty to its ultimate origin. Modaltransportation statistics such as Waterborne CommerceStatistics and the Waybill Sample cannot be used toidentify interior origins since truck movements are not

reported on a comparable basis. Consequently, thefollowing steps were used to identify interior origins:

Determine boundary of drawing area and locationof major transshipment elevators from portpersonnel or grain merchants.

Associate each major transshipment elevator witha state crop-reporting district. There areusually six to twelve crop-reporting districtsper state.

* Identify crop production levels for eachcrop-reporting district.* These factors are usedto establish relative production weights for eachdistrict.

Reported in unpublished data prepared by the NorthCentral Regional Committee NC-139 on Economic Analysisj of the U.S. Grain Exporting System.

111-5

Establish modal shares (rail, truck, barge) forreportinq districts.

Alternative routes included export via Atlantic, Gulfand Pacific coasts and transshipment at the St. LawrenceRiver. These are currently high-volume routes, soexisting rates are reasonable.

4. OTHER BULK COMMODITIES

The sources consulted for rates included the following:

Published rail tariffsRailroads

Lake carriersShippersReported charter fixtures.

It was assumed that origins and destinations werelakeside; no attempt was made to trace flows to interiorpoints. Alternative routes for lakewise movements wereassumed to be via rail between the same points. For-xports and imports the commodities were routed throughNew Orleans or Baltimore.

5. STEEL AND OTHER GENERAL CARGO

The sources consulted for rates included the following:

Published conference and independent tariffs

(ocean rates)

Published rail and truck tariffs

Water and rail carriers serving Canadian ports

Shippers.

The only publicly available source for identifying

interior oriains and destinations of U.S. foreign trade is"Domestic and International Transportation of U.S. ForeignTrade: 1976." One possible approach to identifyinginterior origins and destinations is to establish theaverage length of inland haul, by mode, for general cargoreported by this source. This produced the following:

Direction Mode Average Distance

Export 40% rail 300 miles60% truck 50 miles

Import 7% rail 300 miles

93% truck 50 miles

TTI-6

This information was not used for rate requests since thecommodity and city are not identified and inappropriatepaper rates may result.

The finest level of geographic detail contained inthis source is the state.* The four states containing themajor general cargo ports--Illinois, Michigan, Ohio andWisconsin--accounted for 70 percent of general cargoexports and 91 percent of general cargo imports. Thisinformation could not be used for rate requests becausecommodity and city are not identified. Both of thesefindings, however, indicate that the majority of the cargooriginates or terminates near the port.

Table 111-2 compares total transportation costs forimported steel which is assumed to be trucked 50 milesfrom port of entry. The largest city 50 miles from theport was selected as the destination city. Thiscomparison shows that steel can reach these cities via NewOrleans or Baltimore at a lower cost than via the Lakes.In spite of this more than 3 million tons of steel was'-.ported through the Lakes in 1978. This indicates thatfor benefit calculations it is more reasonable to assumethat general cargo originates or terminates in the GreatLakes cities. This approach was used to develop the ratecomparisons.

The port-to-port forecasts developed in this studywere based on Waterborne Commerce Statistics which statesonly that the origin (of imports) or destination (ofexports) is "overseas." Consequently, it was necessary toestablish weighting factors for overseas area andcommodity. This was done by assuming that the top sixODCs** by weiqht (e.g., U.K. - Chicago - alcoholicbeverages) were representative of all imports throughChicago.*** Weighting factors were then developed forthese six tonnages according to import tonnage in 1978.

* Data were collected for production/market areas,

typically of SMSA size, but the response rate was solow, and the number of production/market areas in theGreat Lakes hinterland was so small, that these datawere not useful.

** Origin - destination - commodity.

* As reported in "U.S. Great Lakes Foreign TradeStatistics," St. Lawrence Seaway DevelopmentCorporation.

111-7

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9111I

I -

I

I

IV. VALUE OF GOODS IN TRANSIT

For purposes of benefit analysis, a measure of thevalue of goods in transit, or inventory carrying cost, wasdeveloped for major commodity groups. The purpose of thisanalysis was to determine the impact on net benefits fromdifferences in average transit time between Great Lakesroutes and the next most expensive route.

Table IV-i compares average transit times foralternative routes on a commodity basis. The only majorcommodities for which this difference is expected to besignificant are grain, iron ore and general cargo. TableIV-2 establishes an average value per ton for thesecommodities.

The Great Lakes Cooperative Port Planning Study andother studies have expressed inventory carrying cost interms of an average daily interest rate (equivalent to 18percent per year in this analysis) times the value of thecommodity. This produces the values shown in Table IV-3.These values were incorporated into the NED benefitanalysis by adjusting the rate differential to account forthe value of the goods in transit.

TABLE IV-3Inventory Carrying Cost

Commodity Value

Steel 18 cents/NT/dayGeneral Carqo 73 cents/NT/dayIron Ore 1.2 cents/NT/dayGrain 7.5 cents/NT/day

IV-1

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V. UPDATE OF THE RATE FILE

There are two general types of freight rate increasesor decreases:

Across-the-board rate changes which may reflect,

among other factors, a change in the carrier'soverall cost of providing transportation services

Selected rate changes which reflect changes inmarket factors involving specific commoditymovements or trade routes.

Across-the-board rate changes which reflect cost

changes are usually increases rather than decreases. Incollecting sample freight rates, several cases were

observed where amendments had been published to increaseall rates in the tariff by a flat percentage. It is acommon occurrence for a current rail freight rate to becalculated by applying several percentage increases to acomparatively old tariff rate. This experience indicatesa general upward trend in freight rates where increasesare applied as uniform percentages.

The second general type of rate changes are due tochanqes in the transportation environment of Great Lakessusceptible carqo. This would include changes to thepattern of commodity flows in the Great Lakes, andtransportation service offered by carriers competing forthis cargo. Corresponding rate adjustments reflectvalue-of-service considerations which are present in therate setting process. Market factors which may be relatedto rate changes include:

Level of competition for specific commoditiesfrom other modes or carrie.s

Relative desirability of certain commodities

Relocation of commodity production or marketcenters within the United States

• Imposition of additional waterway user charges

Merqers and/or deregulation of railroads

V-1

LJ

Fuel price increases (which will impact each mode

in different ways)

• Rail line abandonments

• Construction of new unit train grain elevators

Long-term changes in the trade partners and

commodities of international commerce

Initiation of termination of scheduled overseas

all-water services via the Great Lakes.

All of the above factors have ocurred at least once withinthe last 5 years and have had a major impact on freightrates.

One possible method for updating the rate informationwould involve adjusting the rates according to transpor-tation cost indices. This would not identify changes inrates for specific, large-volume movements which may not.behave according to an average or index, and would notproduce traceable rates. There is also a good chance thatif inflation were the principal factor influencing theindices, the cost differential between a Great Lakes andan alternate route would not change very much. Thus,updating the rates via an index would probably not changeNED benefits significantly.

Another alternative would involve collecting a set ofnew rates, which would reflect across-the-board increasesas well as selective market-related changes. Theappendices identify the parameters and sources needed tocollect new rates and should be used as a guide for thispurpose.

V-2

APPENDIX A

GENERAL CARGO RATES

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APPENDIX F

GRAIN RATES

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NEW AND HIGHER MINIMUM SCALE OF MINNESOTA INTRASTATETRUCK RATES FOR GRAIN EFFECTIVE NOVEMBER 12, 1979

Prtscrike1 Minir.jm Ratas on all C3r n, incl,llnn FlaxseedOates in Cents'ner Inn Iounis

Mtnirm Truckload '!ei"ht -.,0000 Pounds

MILES RATE MILES RATE ILES RATE

1-1'0 Is 181-1P Sn 354-?Fn 9i

16-20 16 191-105 5z 156-37 9421-25 16.5 196-2n 54 371-375 95.526-30 17 201-21S 55 376-38n 97

31-35 17.5 206-210 56 381-385 0836-40 19 211-215 57 386-3qO 99.541-45 20 215-220 5a 391-395 10146-51 ZI 221-'25 59.5 395-4n.1 10251-55 22 226-23n 61.5 4n1-405 103

56-60 '23 231-235 63 V66-41r 104.561-65-4 Z36-2an 64 411-415 10666-7n 25 241-2eS 65 16-4A20 10771-75 26 246-25n 66 121-4?5 10876-80 27 251-255 67 A25-431 109

2 56-2' - 110

86-9Or 29 261-265 69 436-44n 11191-95 30 266-270 7n A41-445 11296-100 Y 271-275 71 446-4S0 113101-105 22 276-280 72 451-455 114

106-110 33 281-28S 73 456-460 115111-115 34 236-29) 74 41-45 116116-120 35 291-295 75 466-471 117121-125 36.5 296-300 76.5 471-.47 118126-130 37 301-305 78 476.480 119

131-135 38.5 206-310 79 l81-A8S 120136-140 39 311-215 3n e-16-490 121141-145 41.5 316-12) 91 491-49S 122146-150 42 321-325 82.5 496-500 123151-155 44 326-331) 84

156-160 45 331-335 85.5161-165 A6 335-34n 17166:171 47 341-345 8171.175 t 4,8 346-35') 89"176- 10 49 351-355 ".5

K. R. Tolonen

Director of TransportationMay 6, 1980

14~e~cL Qp o S~AJEN4~EF- 21

DAT

FILMI