Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Slide Pack - January 2017
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Transcript of Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Slide Pack - January 2017
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Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
January 2017 Survey Update Issued 13th February 2017
Richard RamseyChief Economist Northern Ireland
Twitter @UB_Economics
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PMI SurveysPurchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and prices across different sectors.
Index numbers are calculated from the percentages of respondents reporting an improvement, no change or decline on the previous month. These indices vary from 0 to 100 with readings of 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above 50.0 signal an increase or improvement; readings below 50.0 signal a decline or deterioration. The greater the divergence from 50.0 the greater the rate of change (expansion or contraction). The indices are seasonally adjusted to take into consideration expected variations for the time of year, such as summer shutdowns or holidays.
< 50.0 = Contraction 50.0 = No Change > 50.0 = Expansion
Data at a sector level are more volatile and 3-month moving averages have been used to more accurately identify the broad trends.
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• Global output growth hits a 22-mth high• US composite PMI hits a 14-mth & China slips to a 4-mth low• EZ composite PMI (54.4) remains at highest level in >5½ yrs • Russian composite PMI hits an 8½-year high • Brazil (44.7) & India (49.4) composite PMIs signal contraction• Global input price inflation hits a 67-mth high• Developed Market manufacturing PMIs hits a 35-mth high
with Emerging Markets easing from a 29-mth highs• UK output growth eases due to services & construction • RoI business activity accelerates to a 10-mth high (59.3)• NI business activity eases to 54.2 from 58.7• NI & UK manufacturing input cost inflation hits record high • NI retailers also raising prices at a record rate
January 2017 PMIs – Key highlights
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Global output growth rate accelerates to a 22-month high
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US outperforms in January with composite hitting a 14-month high. China slips to a 4-month low
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Developed Markets PMI hits a 14-month high while Emerging Markets rises to a 23-month high
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Emerging Markets’ PMI remains in growth mode but divergence between Russia (8.5yr high) & India & Brazil
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Chinese services & manufacturing PMIs ease from their recent highs
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Strong growth ‘Down Under’ eases in January
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Ireland & France report a marked acceleration in growth with the other economies posting a slowdown
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All sectors of the Eurozone economy in expansion mode but retail only just!
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GDP remained stuck in a low gear in Q2 & Q3 but PMI signals more momentum in Q4/Q1-17
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Ireland, Russia & Australia top the service sector growth league with India & Brazil at the bottom
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A pick-up in manufacturing activity is evident in the US, Japan & the Eurozone. Slowdown in China
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Developed Markets manufacturing PMIs hits a 35-month high & diverging from Emerging Markets
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NI & UK firms report a slowdown in private sector growth in January with RoI firms signalling a pick-up
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PMI suggests private sector growth rebounded in Q4
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2014 was the 1st year in 7 years that the 4 main indicators recorded expansion, repeated in 2015 & 2016
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Output & orders rebound in Q4 but pace of job creation eases. Sterling weakness triggers surge in exports
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NI firms report a slowdown in output, new orders & employment growth
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RoI firms report a marked pick-up in new orders with NI & UK firms posting faster rates of growth too
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RoI, UK & NI firms report rising backlogs
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NI export orders ease from their record high with £ weakness still cited as a factor behind strong demand
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RoI jobs growth accelerates with NI & UK firms reporting a slowdown in employment growth
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Input cost inflation in Q4 hits its highest level since Q2-11. Output prices rise at their fastest rate since Q3-08
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Regional Comparisons
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The West Midlands topped the regional growth table in January with Scotland at the foot of the league table
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Scotland, the North East & London post the weakest growth rates of the UK regions over the last 3 months
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The RoI reported the fastest growth rate in business activity over the last year with Scotland stagnating
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Scotland & the North East report the weakest rates of jobs growth with Wales & the North West the strongest
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NI posts the 3rd slowest rate of employment growth of all UK regions over the last 3 months
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The North East (job losses) was the only region not to post employment growth over the last 12 months
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SectoralComparisons
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UK manufacturers report a pick-up in output growth while construction & services signal a slowdown
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The UK’s growth rate has remained constant at 0.6% q/q for the last 3 quarters firmer than PMI suggested
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Construction was the only sector in the RoI to report a slowdown in the rate of growth in January
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NI retailers, services & manufacturing firms in growth mode while construction remains broadly flat
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Retail surging & construction contracting. Manufacturing & services continue to expand at robust rates of growth
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Retail sector eases from a record high (67.8) with private sector (excl. retail) easing from December’s 26-mth high
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All sectors of Northern Ireland’s private sector report an increase in staffing levels
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NI’s manufacturing firms report an easing in the rate of growth across key indicators over the last 3 months
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UK & RoI manufacturing output growth accelerates while growth moderates for NI firms
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NI manufacturing output growth (3-month average) remains above its pre-downturn long-term average
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UK firms report robust rates of growth with NI and RoI firms signalling a marked pick-up in demand too
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NI manufacturing output growth eases with Greece contracting at its fastest rate in 16-months
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NI & UK manufacturing firms reporting record rates of input cost inflation
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Input cost inflation rockets from end of Q1-16 with firms raising prices at a record rate
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NI’s manufacturing firms reporting a slowdown in jobs growth following a ‘V-shaped recovery’
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All key indicators across NI’s services sector signal an upward trend
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NI & RoI services sector output accelerates (3 month average) with UK output growth unchanged
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The growth rate in NI’s services sector accelerates but remains below its pre-downturn long-term average
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New orders growth up sharply for UK & RoI firms with NI more muted.
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Input cost inflation accelerates with output prices increasing at a much weaker rate
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NI & UK firms report similar rates of service sector jobs growth with RoI’s rate accelerating
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NI retailers are still recruiting staff at a significant rate with sales & orders growth exceptionally strong
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NI retailers increasing prices at a record rate as rising input costs get passed on to consumers
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NI’s construction firms are hiring staff again as sustained period of contraction eases
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Input cost inflation accelerating at a rapid rate with firms increasing prices at a much weaker rate
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NI firms report a decline in output over the last 3 months in contrast to growth amongst UK & RoI firms
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NI firms continue to post a slump in new orders growth in contrast to robust growth amongst RoI & UK firms
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UK firms report an improvement in conditions across housing, commercial & civil engineering activity
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Slowdown in construction sector briefly led to an increase in supply of sub-contractors
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Optimism amongst UK construction firms back above its long-term average
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RoI housing & commercial activity remains strong while engineering output continues to fall
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RoI’s construction industry still reporting a decrease in the availability of sub-contractors & rising rates of pay
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RoI construction firms still remain very optimistic about the year ahead and well above the long-term average
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Slide 67
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