UKPIA 2020 statistical review 2020€¦ · GDP Growth and Demand for Oil Products In 2018, the...

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Statistical Review 2020

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Members

Associate members

About usThe UK Petroleum Industry Association (UKPIA) is the trade association for the UK downstream oil sector. We represent the interests of our members and associate members across the industry, who are involved in the refi ning, distribution and marketing of oil and gas products in the UK.

Disclaimer:This report has been prepared by UKPIA by its own assessment and does not necessarily represent the combined views of its members, combined other otherwise. All data shown in tables and charts are UKPIA’s own data, except where otherwise stated and cited in footnotes and are copyright © of the UK Petroleum Industry Association. This report is the intellectual property of UKPIA and may not be published or distributed without prior written permission. The modelling and results presented here are based on information provided by third parties, upon which UKPIA has relied in producing its report and forecasts in good faith. Any subsequent revision or update of those data will affect the assessments and projections shown.

3 | Statistical Review | 2020

ContentsIntroduction 4

Statistical Analysis 5

Economics 6

Refi ning 10

Products 14

Biofuels 20

Environment 26

Retail 44

Mobility 50

Health and Safety 56

Glossary 62


ContentsIntroduction 4

Statistical Analysis 5

Economics 6

Refi ning 10

Products 14

Biofuels

Environment 26

Retail 44

Mobility 50

Health and Safety 56

Glossary 62

20

Environment:The environment continues to be an important consideration for the downstream oil sector, which has consistently reduced its greenhouse gas emissions – by a total of 36% over the past 20 years. More recently, the UK’s overall GHG emissions basket decreased by 2% in 2018, while the CO2 emissions decreased by another 2.2% since 2017 – all this alongside continued economic growth.

Taxation:The total receipts from 2019 (£31.8 bn) are slightly higher than the 10-year average receipts (£30.8 bn). Tax receipts, along with petroleum product demand, have been broadly stable over the past decade despite volatility in the price of crude over the same period.

Refineries:The UK refining sector is the 5th largest in Europe (Fuels Europe) but it produces less in 2019 than a decade ago. Refinery throughputs increased slightly in 2019, while the usage of fuel within refineries decreased by 3.8%. The slight increase in throughputs coupled with the decrease in fuel usage suggests that UK refineries’ energy efficiency increased in 2019, which is

good both for the environment and for the competitiveness of the industry.

Products:Petrol (gasoline) continues to be the product that is produced most at UK refineries, at an average 26% of refined products, followed closely by diesel at 21%. Jet fuel and gas oil make up smaller proportions, and there remains 3% of product yield as heating oil (kerosene) for domestic use. Due to the configuration of refineries, the UK continues to be a net exporter of petrol and petroleum gases, and a net importer of jet and diesel fuels, although imports of both decreased slightly in 2018.

Disclaimer:This report has been prepared by UKPIA by its own assessment and does not necessarily represent the combined views of its members, combined other otherwise. All data shown in tables and charts are UKPIA’s own data, except where otherwise stated and cited in footnotes and are copyright © of the UK Petroleum Industry Association. This report is the intellectual property of UKPIA and may not be published or distributed without prior written permission. The modelling and results presented here are based on information provided by third parties, upon which UKPIA has relied in producing its report and forecasts in good faith. Any subsequent revision or update of those data will affect the assessments and projections shown.



IntroductionThe UKPIA Statistical Review analyses the UK’s downstream oil sector using the latest available data. The Review aims to provide – in one place – a timely, comprehensive, and convenient compendium of data to all who wish to understand the latest state of the industry. Here, you will see the breadth of the of the downstream oil sector’s impact, as it directly employs over 120,000 people and provides economic support to their communities, as well as to the broader UK economy which still relies on petroleum products for over a third of energy demand. This publication covers all facets of the sector, from refinery and bulk imports to forecourt sales, and considers the impacts on society, the economy and the environment.

This year there is an increased focus on biofuels. Given the major changes to EU legislation, the UK Government’s E10 Consultation, and the sector’s own view of the importance of low carbon liquid fuels as shown in UKPIA’s Future Vision publication in 2019, the time is right to include a fuller assessment of these important low carbon fuels in our assessment.

Always striving to improve The UKPIA Statistical Review, several new graphs and statistical analyses have been included in this year’s publication. In addition to the biofuels section (page 20), you will also find the source location of oil products (page 18), the location of public EV charging connectors (page 52), and the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions (page 27).

I hope you find it useful.

Stephen Marcos Jones | Director General, UK Petroleum Industry Association

The data, gathered and reviewed by a team of experts from across the downstream oil sector, provides readers with a high-level overview of key metrics from the sector.

Statistical Analysis Econ

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The net profits of UKPIA members, defined as the difference between gross sales and costs including taxes, have remained steady, at just over £1 billion since 2015. Crude prices in 2018 reached their highest levels since 2014, contributing to a 24% year-on-year increase in operating costs, and a 15% increasein gross sales. Tax and duty paid by UKPIA members has remained relatively steady since 2015, with an average of £20.4 billion.

In line with the increasing crude prices, 2018 saw a 9% decrease in return on capital investment in the UK downstream oil sector, ending a 3-year run of high returns.

Profit Measurement of UKPIA Members

Economics6 | Statistical Review | 2020

Gross sales of petroleum products grew in 2018, in part reflecting a rise in crude prices in that year. UKPIA member companies, combined, saw their net profits remain stable at around £1 billion on gross sales of around £70 billion.Gross sales

of petroleum products grew

The UK remains a net importer of refined petroleum

products

Gross sales of around £70 billion

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2018 5-Yr Avg 10-Yr Avg

UKPIA Manufacturing Services Upstream Oil

Source: UKPIA

ROCE %

Efficiency of Capital Investment

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2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Operating Costs Tax and Duty Gross Sales

Source: UKPIA

Billion £

Profit Measurement of UKPIA Members

Return on Capital Employed


£70Billion

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

GDP (CVM SA) Demand

Source: ONS / BEIS

Percent Change

GDP Growth and Demand for Oil Products

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Source: BEIS

Billion £

Contribution to UK Balance of PaymentsContribution to UK Balance of Payments

GDP Growth and Demand for Oil Products

In 2018, the UK’s downstream oil sector engaged in £28.3 billion worth of trade, an increase of 16% over the £24.4 billion of trade occurring in 2017. The UK has been a net importer of refined petroleum products since 2013, and as a result of increasing diesel and jet demand, where the UK is already short, the downstream oil sector’s contribution to the UK’s balance of payments has been negative. The negative contribution has remained above £3 billion since 2016 but remains steady.

UK demand for oil products fell by nearly 1.5 million tonnes, to 68.5 million tonnes, in 2019. The decrease in demand together with increased decoupling of GDP with demand for oil product and improvements in vehicle efficiency and other fuel efficiency. The largest decrease in demand came from transport and domestic fuels, which experienced decreases of 1.5% and 1.9%, respectively. Demand for diesel fuels, in particular, continued to decrease, while demand for hydrocarbon petrol fuel increased in 2019.

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

BP

Total

Shell

Phillips 66

Source: BP / Phillips 66 / Total / Shell Annual Reports

$/boe

European Refining Marker Margins

The overall trend in European refining margins showed minimal change year-on-year from 2018. Where refining margins decreased, reduced feedstock advantage due to narrowing crude differentials, turnaround activities, and unplanned downtime could be the cause.

Please note: additional refining marker margins have been included in this edition of the UKPIA Statistical Review. The descriptions of each company’s refinery margin are shown below but may not be directly comparable.

European Refining Marker Margins

Refining



UK refinery output rose very slightly in 2019 despite reducing its own fuel consumption, showing an increase in energy efficiency. Capacity utilisation remains high as it has done since the mid-2010s yet overall production is still significantly down over the decade following refinery closures.

Output rose very slightly in 2019

Increase in energy efficiency

Petrol and diesel combined,

represented 47% of UK refinery

production

BP: The Refining Marker Margin is a simplified regional margin indicator using regional crack spreads to calculate the margin, which does not include fuel and other variable costs. Only reflective of margins achieved on diesel and petrol.

Phillips 66: The Realised Refining Margin is calculated as the difference between sales and operating revenues derived from the sale of petroleum products manufactured at P66 refineries, and the purchase costs of feedstocks used to produce those products. This margin is adjusted to include proportional shares of joint venture margins and excludes items not representative of underlying operating performance. Designed to be comparable to benchmark industry refining margins.

Total: The European Refining Main Indicator (to 2017) represented the margin after variable costs for a hypothetical complex refinery located around Rotterdam that processes a mix of crude oil and other inputs commonly supplied there to produce and market the main refined products at prevailing regional prices. The Variable Cost Margin (from 2018) is the average margin, defined as the difference between sales of refined products and the crude purchases and other variable costs, divided by refinery throughput on variable costs realised by Total’s European refining business.

Shell: The Refining Market Average Industry Gross Margin is the gross profit margin, including variable costs, for the Rotterdam Complex. Designed as a GAAP-compliant measure.

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Although the absolute volume of fuels produced at UK refineries has decreased by 20% since 2010, the ratio of the various petroleum product yields has remained broadly constant. The largest changes in production yields have been in petrol, which increased from 25% of production in 2010 to 27% in 2019, and in fuel oils, which decreased from 10% in 2010 to 5% in 2019. It is interesting to note that while falling fuel oil yield is reflective of falling UK demand forthat product, increasing demand from international customers means that although UK petrol demand has fallen since 2010 refinery petrol output has increased.

UK Refinery Production


Refinery capacity utilisation has fluctuated over the past 10 years, however the overall trend has been upwards, resulting in a 15.2% increase in capacity utilisation since 2010. The 2.4% increase in capacity utilisation seen since 2018 is partially a result of reduced UK refining capacity and stagnating fuel demand resulting in relatively small year-on-year variation in the volume of processed crude. Utilisation rates are also directly affected by planned and unplanned maintenance at refineries.

Refinery throughputs increased by less than 1% in 2019, while the usage of fuel within refineries decreased by 3.8%, suggesting that UK refineries’ energy efficiency increased in 2019.

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Throughput Refinery Own Fuel UsageMillion toe Percent Usage

UK Refinery Throughput and In-Refinery Fuel Use

Source: BEIS

UK Refinery Throughput and In-Refinery Fuel Use

UK Refining Capacity Utilisation

Although demand for petrol products in the UK has fallen, UK refineries are still configured to produce large volumes of petrol over other refined products. As a result, on average, 26% of all products produced by UK refineries is petrol. Diesel, at 22%, and gas oil at 12%, follow while jet fuel represents only 8% of UK refinery production despite high demand for the product.

Proportion of Refined Products Produced in the UKAverage Proportion of Refined Products Produced in the UK

Source: BEIS

Petrol26%

DERV22%

Gas Oil12%

Jet Fuel8%

Fuel Oils8%

Petroleum Gases10%

Heating Oil 3%

Other11%

Source: BEIS

Million tonnes

UK Refinery Production

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Petrol DERV Gas Oil Jet Fuel Fuel Oils Petroleum Gases Heating oil Other

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Crude Processed (Mt) Utilisation Rate (%)

Source: BEIS

$/boe Percent Usage

UK Refining Capacity Utilisation

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Million tonnes

Source: BEIS

Petroleum Gases

Motor / Aviation

Spirit

Light Oils / Spirits

Aviation Kerosene

Heating Oil

Gas Oil/ Diesel Fuel Oils Lubricants Other

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Import-Export of Oil Products, 2018Imports Exports Balance

Import-Export of Oil Products, 2018

Products14 | Statistical Review | 2020

The downstream oil sector manufactures a range of refined petroleum products. Diesel remains the leading product delivered (note: not the most produced) in the UK and there is still significant demand for petrol, jet fuel, and domestic kerosene. Nearly half of the crude oil used was sourced from the North Sea, down from nearly two-thirds in 2017, being displaced by imported crude from North America and Africa.

Diesel remains the leading

product delivered in the UK

Half the crude oil needed

comes from the North Sea

Wide variety of options for

importing products, from around

the world


Due to the configuration of the UK refineries, and the trend of falling domestic petrol demand, the UK continues to be a net exporter of petrol and petroleum gases, and a net importer of jet and diesel fuels, although imports of these products decreased by 8% and 7%, respectively in 2018.

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In 2019, a third of refi ned products delivered in the UK were diesel. This is in stark contrast to UK refi neries’ petrol-centric production confi guration. Petrol made up 17% of deliveries in 2019.

Inland Product Deliveries, 2019

Source: BEIS

Million tonnes

Fuel Oil, 0.3

Lubricants, 0.4

Other petroleum

gases, 1.0

Naphtha , 1.2

Bitumen, 1.7

Butane and propane, 3.3

Heating Oil, 3.4

Other, 5.1Petroleum Gases, 5.6

Motor Spirit, 11.7

Aviation Fuel, 12.4

Diesel, 23.8 Fuel Oil, 0.3

Lubricants, 0.4

Other petroleum

gases, 1.0

Naphtha , 1.2

Bitumen, 1.7

Butane and propane, 3.3

Heating Oil, 3.4

Other, 5.1Petroleum Gases, 5.6

Motor Spirit, 11.7

Aviation Fuel, 12.4

Diesel, 23.8

Inland Product Deliveries, 2019

Inland Oil Products Deliveries

Source: BEIS

Million tonnes

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UK Inland Oil Product DeliveriesMotor Spirit Diesel Aviation Fuel Heating Oil BitumenFuel Oil Lubricants Other Petroleum Gases

Although diesel deliveries have seen an overall increase of 52% since 2000, deliveries have decreased for two consecutive years, mostly recently by 3% in 2019. Increasing diesel deliveries had been coupled by a 45% decrease in petrol deliveries since 2000. Similar to diesel deliveries, petrol deliveries increased in 2019 – by 1% – for the fi rst time since 2000. Jet fuel is the third major product to have seen substantial change since 2000, with an overall increase in deliveries by 15%, however the annual increases to jet fuel deliveries have been more modest since 2017 when deliveries increased by over 7%.

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The volume of oil products produced and used within UK refineries, as seen in the Refining section, has seen little change year-on-year. Exports of petroleum products decreased by 4% in 2018, in line with overall production decreases and increasing inland demand. The majority of products produced by domestic refineries (59%) is consumed within the UK.The highest proportion of exported refined product continues to be sent to the Netherlands (27%) followed by the United States and Ireland (16% each), and Belgium (12%). Year-on-year, while exports to Belgium increased from 9% to 12%, the other major export receivers have not increased their shares substantially.

Export Destination of Refined Oil Products, 2018

Source: BEIS

Million tonnes

Canada, 0.60

Spain, 0.63

France, 0.78

Other Africa, 1.69

Belgium, 2.65

Ireland, 3.48 USA, 3.60

Netherlands, 6.10

Rest of World, 2.69

Export Destination of Refined Oil Products, 2018

In 2018, nearly half of the crude used by UK refineries originated from the North Sea, with 12% produced on the UK Continental shelf, and the other 34% originating in Norwegian waters. The proportion of crude originating from the North Sea has decreased by 20% since 2017, when 65% of crude used in UK refineries had that origin. Since the end of the United States’ ban on the export of crude oil in December 2015, that country’s share of crude has increased from 102 thousand tonnes in 2015 to over 7 million tonnes in 2018.In addition to the 44.2 million tonnes of crude oil imported in 2018, the UK also imported 35.2 million tonnes of refined petroleum products. 20% of the total was imported from Russia and another 18% from the Netherlands. Russia and the Netherlands are the largest sources of diesel, representing 5.6 and 2.7 million tonnes, respectively. The Netherlands is also the largest source of petrol, exporting 1.2 million tonnes to the UK. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are the largest sources of jet fuel, exporting 2.1 and 1.7 million tonnes, respectively. While the United States’ share of crude oil imports has increased since 2015, its share of refined product imports has decreased by 10%, while Russian imports increased by 43% during the same time period.

This year’s edition of the Statistical Review has corrected the UK’s indigenous-produced crude oil share. The correct volume of UK crude used in domestic refineries in 2017 was 7.41 million tonnes.

Source Location of Crude, 2018

Source: BEIS

Million tonnes

Libya, 1.12

Saudi Arabia, 1.14

Russia, 2.26

Rest of World, 5.04

Nigeria, 5.71

Algeria, 5.86

USA, 7.58

Norway, 17.14

UK, 5.84

Source Location of Crude, 2018

Rest of World, 2.93

DEU, 0.59KWT, 0.78FRA, 0.84

IND, 0.84

QAT, 0.87

FIN, 1.15

NOR, 1.52

UAE, 1.68

SAU, 2.28

SWE, 2.50

USA, 2.83

BEL, 2.93

NLD, 6.42

RUS, 7.08

Source Location of Oil Products, 2018

Source: BEIS

Million tonnes

Source Location of Oil Products, 2018

Destination and use of Oil Products, 2018Destination and Use of Oil

Products, 2018

Source: BEIS

Million tonnes

Domestic Deliveries, 37.09

Refinery Use, 3.87

Exports, 22.24

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UK Biofuel Deliveries

Biofuels



Biofuel mandates will increase in the 2020s

16% of biofuels are sourced

locally in the UK

Biodiesel (FAME) and bioethanol are the most used biofuels

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Biodiesel Bioethanol Biomethanol

Source: DfT

Million Litres

UK Biofuel Deliveries

Biomethanol remains a very small part of the annual biofuel deliveries (1.6%), when compared to biodiesel (61%) and bioethanol (38%). The increased Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO) target–from 4.75% in 2017/18 to 7.25% in 2018–has led to increased biofuels deliveries. Year-on-year, for the period between 15 April and 14 December, biodiesel deliveries increased by 68%, while bioethanol deliveries increased by 3.5%, and biomethanol deliveries decreased by 44%. As a result of the shortened reporting period for 2018, the deliveries of biofuels in the UK, between reporting periods, have decreased.

RTFO reporting periods are 1 year long. Prior to 2018, the periods covered biofuel deliveries between 15 April and 14 April of the following year. From 2019, the period will span from 1 January to 31 December. As a result, the 2018 reporting period is shorter (15 April 2018 to 31 December 2018).

Biofuels will continue to be a growing market of fuel products in the years ahead as Government mandates for biofuels rise in the 2020s. 16% of biofuels are currently sourced domestically with the rest imported from around the world. Increasing mandates and limited domestic biofuel production capacity are likely to force increased imports in the coming years. Biodiesel and bioethanol continue to be the most in-demand biofuels.

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Waste Derived Non-Waste Derived

Biofuel Feedstock Sources

Source: DfT

Million Litres

Biofuel Feedstock Sources

Since the 8th RTFO reporting period (2015/16), waste derived biofuels have consistently made up the larger portion of UK biofuels – most likely as a result of their additional certificates awarded thus meeting the RTFO obligation with a smaller volume of biofuels. The “waste-derived” feedstocks, as defined by the DfT, include agricultural and waste and processing residues, as well as non-food cellulosic and ligno-cellulosic materials. The “waste” products – in an effort to incentivise fuels that minimise/do not result in indirect land use changes – are eligible for “double-counting” under the RTFO, meaning that they receive double the number of RTFCs for every unit of biofuel. Although there is evolving discussion as to which feedstocks are truly “waste” products, (as circular economy developments create new value from wastes), a large proportion of feedstocks in use as biofuels in the UK originate from wastes or residues. Non-waste derived feedstocks are those which receive a single certificate under the RTFO.


As in 2017, used cooking oil made up the largest share of biofuel feedstocks (47%) in 2018. The next largest feedstock contributors were corn (13%, combined) and sugar beets (8%). Similar proportions of corn are sourced from within and outside the EU. The proportions of wheat and starch in the total biofuels feedstock each decreased by over 45%, removing them from their place as second and third largest biofuel feedstocks.

UK, 247.32

FRA, 190.55

CHN, 154.94

ESP, 137.28USA,

127.90

UKR, 79.86

MYS, 61.46

DEU, 60.88

IDN, 51.93

SVK, 38.15

NLD, 37.92

ROU, 36.94

TWN, 35.51

BEL, 35.30

BGR, 29.08 Other, 193.28

Source Location of Biofuels, 2018

Source: DfT

Million Litres

Biofuel Feedstocks, 2018


Biodiesel FAME, 886.68

Bioethanol, 551.28

Biomethanol, 23.74Biopropane, 20.30

Off road biodiesel, 11.46

Biopetrol, 10.88

Biomethane, 7.61Other, 6.39

Biofuel Types, 2018

Source: DfT

Million Litres

Biofuel Types, 2018

In 2017, domestically produced biofuels made up 23% of biofuels used in the UK. In 2018, this share decreased by 30% to make up 16% of biofuels. Closures of all but one of the UK’s ethanol producing plants are likely to have contributed to this decline in domestic biofuel usage. The share of biofuels produced in the United States, Ukraine, and the Netherlands also decreased in 2018, to 8%, 5%, and 3%, respectively. China and Spain, on the other hand, increased their share of biofuels used in the UK to 10% and 9%, respectively, displacing some of the historically consistent biofuels sources. France remains the largest exporter to biofuels to the UK, making up 13% of the share of biofuels. As above, the predominant types of biofuels in UK markets are biodiesel (FAME) and bioethanol. Since 2017, biodiesel deliveries increased by 11%, while bioethanol deliveries decreased by 26%, and biomethanol deliveries decreased by 63%. The decrease in biomethanol deliveries coincides with an increase in biopetrol and biopropane deliveries. Biodiesel for off-road applications and other renewable diesel fuels (such as HVO) also saw substantial increases over reporting periods.

Biopetrol is a non-alcohol biofuel blending component suitable for use in a spark-ignition combustion engine.

Biodiesel FAME, 886.68

Bioethanol, 551.28

Biomethanol, 23.74Biopropane, 20.30

Off road biodiesel, 11.46

Biopetrol, 10.88

Biomethane, 7.61Other, 6.39

Biofuel Types, 2018

Source: DfT

Million Litres

UK, 247.32

FRA, 190.55

CHN, 154.94

ESP, 137.28USA,

127.90

UKR, 79.86

MYS, 61.46

DEU, 60.88

IDN, 51.93

SVK, 38.15

NLD, 37.92

ROU, 36.94

TWN, 35.51

BEL, 35.30

BGR, 29.08 Other, 193.28


Source: DfT

Million Litres

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EU Renewable Transport Share, 2018

Source: Eurostat

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UK PL BE ES IE IT DE FR NL AT NO SE

Biofuels Other Renewables

EU Renewable Transport Share, 2018RES-T %

Progress against the RTFO target is assessed based on the number of RTFCs issued in any period. The 2018 reporting year target was met via a more diverse range of biofuels – bioethanol and biodiesel (shown in the chart) still dominated the biofuel mix – but were joined by biopetrol and biopropane for the first time.The value presented here is a percentage of total obligated fuels, making it possible to make direct comparisons between the reporting periods. As the primary petrol and diesel biofuels are bioethanol and biodiesel respectively, their % blended volumes (bars) and associated RTFC multipliers (lines) are presented. From 2013/14 to 2017/18, the target was met from solely these fuels (although small volumes of biofuels such as biomethanol were blended). As is visible on the chart, 2018 saw the steepest year-on-year RTFO target increase so far, with the same 1.25% increase in obligation added in 2019 and 2020. As noted above, this has been met with a greater diversity of biofuels being blended.Double-counted feedstocks are not evenly spread between biodiesel and bioethanol. For the 2018 reporting period, 97% of biodiesel was eligible for double-counting, compared to only 22% of bioethanol. In order to meet the increased RTFO target, the volume of double-counted biodiesel increased by 42% from 1.7% of fuel in 2017/18 to 2.4% of all delivered fuel in 2018.

Biofuel Content in UK Fuels, with Double Counting

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2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018

Bioethanol Biodiesel RTFO Target

Biofuel Content in UK Fuels, with Double Counting

Percent of Total Fuel Volume

Source: HMRC / DfT

The renewable transport share (RES-T), introduced as part of the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive, is the proportion of total fuels used for the transport sector that have renewable origins. In calculating this share, the EU permits certain renewable fuels used in certain sectors to be counted multiple times. For compliant biofuels, this “multiplier” is 2, whereas for renewable electricity used in road transport, the multiplier is 5. As a result, renewable electricity is incentivised over biofuels. In line with their longstanding history in far exceeding the EU’s climate targets, Sweden has seen exceptional success in introducing renewable energy into their transport sector. Compared to other similar EU countries, the UK’s overall RES-T is low, only ranking higher than Poland, and ranks lowest in terms of compliant biofuel RES-T share. However, for other renewable fuels, the UK ranks ahead of Germany, France, Belgium, Poland, and Spain.The differences between the levels of biofuels used in EU countries is due to the differing fuels mandates. EU biofuels mandates are primarily transposed from two directives: the Renewable Energy Directive, which sets a target that 10% of energy used in transport should have a renewable source by 2020, and the Fuel Quality Directive, which sets a 6% GHG emissions reduction target for fuels. The UK has transcribed these into law in the RTFO order and the Motor Fuel Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reporting Regulation.

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0

50

100

150

200

250

1999 2005 2010 2015 2018

Energy Transport Business Residential Other

Source: BEIS

MtCO2e

UK GHG Emissions, by Source

The UK’s overall basket of greenhouse gas emissions decreased by another 2% in 2018, while the UK’s CO2 emissions decreased by 2.7%. By 2018, the UK’s basket of GHG emissions had decreased by a total of 36% over the previous twenty years, including a 33% reduction in CO2 emissions. In line with the UK’s GHG emissions reduction commitments, the basket of GHG emissions reduced by 43% since 1990, with a reduction of CO2 emissions by 39%.

The trend of decreasing emissions has largely been achieved by reductions in emissions by the energy sector. Other sectors have achieved smaller decreases in emissions, with transport the remaining sector not yet decreasing. In the case of the transport sector, while the mass of emissions produced per vehicle has decreased over time, the number of vehicles has increased resulting in the transport sector becoming the most emissions-intensive sector in the UK. It is interesting to note that in 2018, the negative emissions created by LULUCF (10.3 MtCO2e) exceeded the amount of emissions produced by industrial processes (10.2 MtCO2e) for the first time.

UK GHG Emissions, by Source

Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Commitments

Environment



The downstream oil sector takes climate and air pollution concerns seriously and is acting to reduce its contribution to emissions across the spectrum. Nonetheless, while emissions from the energy sector have decreased substantially, emissions from the transport sector remain the largest source of UK GHG emissions.

The UK has legislated for

a net Zero GHG target by 2050

Continued reductions in

emissions

Biggest GHG emissions by

sector are from transport

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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1999 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Net CO2 emissions GHG Basket

Source: BEIS / EC / CCC

MtCO2e

Kyoto 1Kyoto 2

Carbon Budget 1Carbon Budget 2

Carbon Budget 3 Paris Agreement NDC

Net Zero

Carbon Budget 4Carbon Budget 5

Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Commitments

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1999 2005 2010 2015 2018

Road Shipping Aviation Railways Other mobile

Transport CO2 Emissions

Source: BEIS

MtCO2e


UK Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1999 2005 2010 2015 2018

Energy Transport Business Residential Other

Source: BEIS

MtCO2eUK Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions

Overall, CO2 emissions from UK refineries have decreased over the past 20 years, however these decreases have only been due to reductions in emissions from large combustion plants, which have decreased by 22% since 2000. Process unit emissions, on the other hand, have increased by 25% since 2000. The resulting overall CO2 emissions decrease of 8% is a result of refinery closures and investments in improved energy efficiency measures.

Refinery CO2 Emissions

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1999 2005 2010 2015 2018

Large Combustion Plants Process Units

Source: UKPIA

Mt

Refinery CO2 Emissions

In 2018, the transport sector was responsible for a third of the UK’s CO2 emissions, and the vast majority of the transport sector emissions (87%) are from the road transport segment. Over the past decade, transport sector emissions have decreased by 5%, however the road transport sector only reduced its emissions by 2.5% compared to the much larger emissions reductions achieved in aviation (by 18%) and shipping (by 14%). All segments of the transport sector have achieved these reductions as usage increased.

Transport CO2 Emissions

As CO2 emissions make up the largest volume of GHG emissions emitted in the UK, the trends observed in the previous graph are again visible here. Since 2010, the energy sector has been able to reduce its CO2 emissions by 50%. Reflecting the small proportion of the car parc employing non-ICE only propulsion systems, as well as the increase in the size of the car parc, the transport sector has been the UK’s largest source of CO2 emissions since 2016.

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2005 2010 2015 2019

Urban Rural

Source: DEFRA

Days

Average Days of Air Pollution Exceeding “Moderate”, by Area Class

Average Days of Air Pollution Exceeding “Moderate”, by Area Class

The average number of days in which air pollution was measured as being “moderate” or worse has increased over the past two years. “Moderate” is defined by the Daily Air Quality Index which categorises air pollution (ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, PM2.5 particles, and PM10 particles) into four bands: low, moderate, high, and very high. The number of days in which air pollution exceeds “moderate” is defined as the number of days for which the concentration of at least one of the aforementioned pollutants exceeds “low” concentrations,as defined in the DAQI. In urban areas, NO2 emissions exceeded “low” concentrations on 7 days in 2019, while SO2 emissions did so on only 2 days (both at the same, industrial, site). The success of clean air zones in urban areas in reducing air pollution is apparent: of the two data collection sites in London’s Ultra Low Emissions Zone, which came in to effect in April 2019, neither recorded any instances of NO2 or SO2 pollution exceeding “low” in 2019, whereas together they recorded 20 such days in 2018. In 2019, NO2 and SO2 emissions in rural areas did not exceed “low” concentrations. In recent years, ozone air pollution was the most common cause of “moderate”, or higher, air pollution ratings across area classes. In 2019, ozone air pollution exceeded “low” concentrations on an average of 21.4 days in rural areas and 9.5 days in urban areas. Days with “moderate” or higher ozone air pollution peaked in 2018, with year-on-year increases of 312% and 223% in urban and rural areas, respectively. Although the average number of such days decreased in both urban and rural areas in 2019, they remain well above the 10-year averages (6.2 days and 14.2 days, respectively).

Methane emissions in the UK have decreased substantially across the economy since 2000, led by reductions to methane emissions in the waste management sector, which has achieved methane emissions reductions of nearly 70% since 2000. As a result of the methane emissions reductions in the wastemanagement sector, the agricultural sector is now the largest source of UK methane emissions. Although its mass of emissions is small in comparison to those from other sectors, the energy sector has also succeeded in reducing its methane emissions by 65% since 2000.

UK Methane (CH4) Emissions

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1999 2005 2010 2015 2018

Waste management Agriculture Energy Other

Source: BEIS

MtCO2e

UK Methane (CH4) Emissions

As it is not a major contributor to the UK’s methane emissions – producing only 0.2% of methane – the statistics for the transport sector’s methane emissions are presented in kilotonnes of CO2e. Regardless of its scale, methane emissions from the transport sector have decreased by 84% since 2000. Road transport accounts for the majority (87%) of transport methane emissions and has therefore been responsible for the majority of methane emissions reductions in this sector.

Transport CH4 Emissions

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1999 2005 2010 2015 2018

Road Other

Source: BEIS

ktCO2eTransport CH4 Emissions

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UK NOx Emissions

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1999 2005 2010 2015 2018

Energy Transport Other

Source: NAEI

kt

UK Nitrogen Oxide (NOx) Emissions

The UK’s energy and transport sectors are the largest producers of NOx emissions in the UK, accounting for 41% and 56% of total emissions, respectively. Both of these sectors have decreased their emissions substantially since 2000: energy sector NOx emissions have decreased by 58% while transport sector emissions have decreased by 47%.

0

5

10

15

20

1999 2005 2010 2015 2018


Source: UKPIA

kt

Refinery NOx EmissionsNOx emissions from refineries have decreased by 37% since 2000, primarily due to reductions in emissions produced by large combustion plants resulting from refinery closures, fuel switching, and investment in ultra-low NOx burners.

Refinery NOx Emissions

As with other emissions, NOx emissions from the transport sector have decreased substantially (by 47%) since 2000. These emissions reductions have not been spread evenly across the transport sector: NOx emissions from the road transport segment decreased by 65% while emissions from aviation increased by 37% since 2000. As a result, aviation emissions accounted for 38% of transport NOx emissions in 2018, compared to 45% from road transport.

Please note that the aviation and shipping segments for air pollutants include both domestic and international emissions.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1999 2005 2010 2015 2018

Aviation Road Shipping Railway Other

Source: NAEI

kt

Transport NOx EmissionsTransport NOx Emissions

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0

10

20

30

40

50

1999 2005 2010 2015 2018


Source: UKPIA

ktRefinery SO2 Emissions

0

50

100

150

200

250

1999 2005 2010 2015 2018

Shipping Road Aviation Railway Other

Source: NAEI

kt

Transport SO2 Emissions

All UK refinery SO2 emissions have decreased since 2000, with 78% reduction in large combustion plant emissions and a 47% decrease in process unit emissions resulting in an overall SO2 emissions reduction of 59%. This has been achieved through plant closures (see page 13), fuel switching, and investment in gas-fired combined heat and power generation, and sulphur recovery.

Refinery SO2 Emissions


The energy sector has always been the largest source of SO2 emissions in the UK, and it has also been responsible for most of the SO2 emissions reductions achieved in the UK, which amount to a decrease of 83% since 2000. A significant proportion of the reduction in energy sector SO2 emissions has been due to the closure of coal-fired power stations, with reductions from the transport sector due to reductions in the sulphur content of petrol and diesel.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1999 2005 2010 2015 2018

Energy Transport Industrial Waste

Source: NAEI

kt

UK Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) EmissionsUK Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) Emissions

Transport SO2 Emissions The majority of transport SO2 emissions originate in the shipping industry. Tighter fuel sulphur limits across the transport sector have resulted in much lower SO2 emissions even as demand for services increases. Most of the reductions to SO2 emissions were achieved between 2007 and 2015. Since 2015, SO2 emissions reductions have stagnated. The introduction of International Maritime Organisation’s 2020 Sulphur Limit, which reduces the maximum allowance of sulphur in marine fuels from 3.5% to 0.5%, can be expected to further reduce the shipping segment’s SO2 emissions.

Sulphur levels in UK petrol and diesel are limited by the EU Fuel Quality Directive as referenced by the UK’s Motor Fuel (Composition and Content) Regulations. All UK petrol and diesel is “sulphur-free”, as they have been since 2009, and continue to be well below the legal sulphur limit. This has contributed to the 5% decrease in sulphur emissions from the road transport sector since 2010.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Petrol Diesel Legal Limit

Source: UKPIA / HM Government

ppmSulphur Content in UK Petrol and DieselSulphur Content of UK Petrol and Diesel

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1

2

3

4

5

6

1999 2005 2010 2015 2018


Source: UKPIA

kt

Refinery CO Emissions

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1999 2005 2010 2015 2018

Road Aviation Shipping Other

Source: NAEI

kt

Transport CO Emissions

Although CO emissions from large combustion plants have been subject to an overall 78% decrease since 2000, they increased by 3.5% year-on-year in 2018. In comparison, CO emissions from process units vary substantially over time – due in large part to unplanned procedures and refinery turnaround events. In the latest reporting period, CO emissions from process units fell by 6%, resulting in an overall year-on-year emissions reduction of 17% from the refining sector.

Refinery CO Emissions


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1999 2005 2010 2015 2018

Energy Transport Waste Industrial

Source: NAEI

kt

UK Carbon Monoxide (CO) EmissionsUK Carbon Monoxide (CO) Emissions

The vast majority of CO emissions from the transport sector (70% in 2018) originate in the road transport segment, and it has therefore been responsible for the bulk of the emissions reductions achieved by the transport sector. Road and Aviation CO emissions have decreased by 70% and 16%, respectively, since 2010, while shipping emissions increased by 13% over the same period.

Transport CO Emissions

UK carbon monoxide emissions have also decreased substantially since 1999, primarily through a 63% decrease in emissions from the transport sector. Although there has been an overall decrease in CO emissions from the energy sector since 1999, there has been a 5% increase in emissions since 2010.

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The UK’s 1,3-butadiene emissions have decreased by 61% since 2000, mostly due to decreases to emissions from the transport sector, which saw a 92% decrease in C4H6 emissions since 2000. During this time, C4H6 emissions from the energy sector have increased by 32%, making it the UK’s largest C4H6 emissions source. There has been a gradual increase in C4H6 emissions since 2014 which can be associated with an increase in domestic wood burning during that period.

UK 1,3-Butadiene (C4H6) Emissions


Aside from reductions within the transport sector, there have only been modest emissions reductions to UK benzene emissions. Although the industrial sectorhas achieved C6H6 emission reductions of 70% since 2000, in absolute values this represents a decrease in emissions from 690 t in 2000 to 210 t in 2018.The only sector whose C6H6 emissions have increased since 2000 is the energy sector, which has seen an increase in emissions by 9% since 2000, and as a result accounted for 71% of the UK’s 2018 benzene emissions.

The largest decreases in transport C6H6 occurred between 1999 and 2000 (52% year-on-year) and between 2008 and 2011 (26% annual average decrease). Most of these decreases were in road transport emissions, which have decreased by 93%, from 8.7 kt in 2000 to 0.61 kt in 2018. Other transport segments, such as aviation and rail, have also seen large proportional decreases in C6H6 emissions, however in absolute terms their C6H6 emissions are small (respectively 60 t and 18 t in 2018). Although rail C6H6 emissions have decreased by 53% since 2000, they increased by 5% year-on-year in 2018. Similarly, while shipping emissions have increased by 3% since 2000, they decreased by 7% year-on-year in 2018.

0

5

10

15

20

25

1999 2005 2010 2015 2018

Road Shipping Other

Source: NAEI

kt

Transport C6H6 EmissionsTransport C6H6 Emissions

The majority of transport C4H6 emissions originate from the road segment (51%), which has decreased its emissions by 95% since 2000. Although the volume of C4H6 emissions produced by the shipping segment are comparatively small, they have increased by 104% since 2000 such that it accounted for 27% of transport sector C4H6 emissions.

Transport C4H6 Emissions

UK Benzene (C6H6) Emissions

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1999 2005 2010 2015 2018

Energy Transport Industrial

Source: NAEI

tonnes

UK 1,3-Butadiene (C4H6) Emissions

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1999 2005 2010 2015 2018

Road Aviation Shipping Railway Other

Source: NAEI

tonnesTransport C4H6 Emissions

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1999 2005 2010 2015 2018

Energy Transport Waste Industrial

Source: NAEI

kt

UK Benzene (C6H6) Emissions

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100

200

300

400

500

1999 2005 2010 2015 2018

Road Shipping Aviation Other

Source: NAEI

kt

Transport NMVOC EmissionsRoad NMVOC emissions make up the majority of transport sector NMVOC emissions, and also have seen the largest decreases (by 60% since 2010). During the same period, NMVOC emissions from both the shipping and aviation sectors decreased, respectively, by 11% and 6%. Since 2000, however, shipping NMVOC emissions have increased by 20%, likely due to increased maritime traffic. Rail NMVOC emissions increased by 3% since 2010, although they have decreased by 49% since 2000.

Transport NMVOC Emissions


NMVOC emissions from the downstream oil sector have been steadily decreasing over time. Since 1999, emissions from both distribution and refineries have decreased by about 55%. These reductions were achieved by plant closures and by investment in improved sealing and vapour recovery equipment at storage and loading/unloading facilities. However, since 2010 emissions from both segments have stagnated, with distribution emissions seeing a slight decrease of 6% and refinery emissions seeing a slight increase of 7%.

Source: NAEI

kt

UK Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compound (NMVOC) Emissions

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1999 2005 2010 2015 2018

Industrial Energy Transport Agriculture Waste

0

10

20

30

40

50

1999 2005 2010 2015 2018

Distribution Refineries

Source: NAEI / UKPIA

kt

Petroleum NMVOC EmissionsPetroleum NMVOC Emissions

UK Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compound (NMVOC) Emissions

Most of the NMVOC emissions reductions achieved in the UK were achieved prior to 2010. Since then, NMVOC emissions have stagnated, and in some cases have seen small increases. The largest decrease in emissions since 2010 occurred in the transport sector (47%). The industrial sector remains the UK’s largest emitter of NMVOCs and has seen an increase in emissions by 3% since 2010. NMVOC emissions from the agricultural sector have also increased – by 8% – since 2010.

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Although refinery PM10 emissions have decreased by 27% since 2000, they have increased by 47% since 2010, including a 19% year-on-year increase in 2018. This latest increase is due to reported increases in large combustion plant emissions which may not be representative of the actual site conditions.

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1999 2005 2010 2015 2018


Source: UKPIA

kt

Refinery PM10 Emissions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1999 2005 2010 2015 2018

Road Shipping Aviation Railway Other

Source: NAEI

kt

Transport PM10 Emissions

Refinery PM10 Emissions

Unlike trends seen in other transport emissions, where much of the the reductions were achieved between 2000 and 2010, PM10 emissions from road transport have decreased steadily throughout the past two decades at an annual average rate of 3%, resulting in an overall decrease of 46% since 2000. Rail and shipping PM10 emissions have also decreased substantially since 2000 (by 68% and 65%, respectively). In the case of rail emissions, however, there has only been a 2% decrease in emissions since 2010. Despite overall reductions in transport PM10 emissions, aviation emissions have increased by 17% since 2000 due to increased demand for air transport.

Transport PM10 Emissions

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1999 2005 2010 2015 2018

Energy Transport Industrial Agriculture Waste

Source: NAEI

ktUK Particulate Matter (PM10) EmissionsUK Particulate Matter (PM10) Emissions

Although the UK’s PM10 emissions have decreased by 27% since 2000, since 2015 they have increased by 5%, mostly in the industrial and agricultural sectors which have seen increases of 21% and 4%, respectively. The industrial sector currently accounts for 30% of total emissions.

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5

10

15

20

25

30

35

10-YrAvg

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Duty VAT

Source: HMRC / BEIS

Billion £

UK Road Fuels Duty and VAT Receipts

The pre-tax diesel and petrol crack spreads (the difference between the cost of crude and price of products) for 2019 were both higher than their respective 10-year average spreads, as well as the 2018 spreads. Both the pre-tax and retail prices of petrol and diesel trend with the price of crude. However, fuel duties and VAT, the mandatory inclusion of biofuels, and factors such as the $-£ exchange rate and contractual arrangements can affect the prices seen at fuel stations.

The road fuels duty accounts for the majority of HM Revenue & Customs’ annual fuel taxation receipts: on average about 85%. The duty is also a more reliable source of revenue for the government as it sees minimal change year-on-year: whereas fuel duty receipts have only increased by an average of 0.7% per year since 2010, VAT receipts have increased by an average of 9% per year. The total receipts for 2019 (£31.8 billion) are slightly more than the 10-year average receipts (£30.8 billion) but slightly less than the 2018 receipts (£31.9 billion). Overall receipts have increased by 6% since 2010.

UK Road Fuel Duty and VAT Receipts

UK Pre-Tax Fuel Differential

Retail44 | Statistical Review | 2020

UK petroleum products, even with some of the highest duties and taxes, continue to be supplied at globally competitive prices. The UK’s over 8000 forecourts – the consumer facing aspect of the downstream oil sector – provide jobs, products and services for the communities across the country.

UK petroleum products

continue to be supplied at globally

competitive prices

The UK has over 8000

forecourts – the consumer facing

aspect of the downstream oil

sector

Providing jobs, products and

services for the communities across the

country

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Crude Diesel Petrol

Source: WoodMac / Bank of England / US EIA

£/l

UK Pre-Tax Fuel Differential


£

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Diesel prices in the UK continued to increase for the third consecutive year, from £1.29/L to £1.32/L, in 2019. Although the prices have increased, the rate of increase was faster in 2017 and 2018 (an average of 9%/year). A similar trend of slowing rate of price increase can be observed in the UK petrol prices. Prices for diesel remain close to the 10-year average.

UK Diesel Price Breakdown

Compared to 2018, the average price of petrol at UK pumps in 2019 remained largely constant at £1.25/L (£0.01/L higher than the 10-year average) ending a 2-year trend of increasing prices, which saw an annual average increase of 7%.

The high efficiency of the UK petroleum product supply chain means that the UK has the lowest pre-tax product prices when compared to EU member countries. Year-on-year, petrol prices and taxation rates have remained stable across Europe, decreasing, on average, by less than a tenth of €0.01/L.

Source: WoodMac / BEIS

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

10-YrAvg

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

UK Petrol Price BreakdownPre-Tax Duty VAT£/l

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

UK AT BE DK FR DE EL IE IT LU NL NO PL ES SE

Pre-Tax Tax

Source: WoodMac

€/l

EU Petrol Price Breakdown, 2019EU Petrol Price Breakdown

UK Petrol Price Breakdown

Again, taking advantage of the UK’s supply chain efficiency, the pre-tax price for diesel in the UK has remained low, although pre-tax prices in Ireland and Luxembourg match those in the UK for diesel. On average, diesel prices across the EU increased by €0.01/L in 2019

EU Diesel Price Breakdown

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

UK AT BE DK FR DE EL IE IT LU NL NO PL ES SE

Pre-Tax Tax

Source: WoodMac

€/l

EU Diesel Price Breakdown, 2019

Source: WoodMac / BEIS

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

10-YrAvg

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

UK Diesel Price BreakdownPre-Tax Duty VAT£/l


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The UK’s overall trend of decreasing numbers of forecourts is continuing. This decrease is primarily due to decreases in the number of company-owned forecourts (38% decrease since 2010), which is partially offset by a 27% increase in the number of hypermarket forecourts, resulting in an overall decrease in the number of forecourts by 5% since 2010. Dealer- (or Independent-) owned forecourts continue to be the largest ownership type for forecourts in the UK.

Although hypermarkets make up a far smaller percentage of the total number of forecourt sites, they have a much higher annual throughput than either the company- or dealer-owned forecourt sites. Further, although the ownership share of hypermarkets has increased since 2010, the throughput of these sites has decreased by 8% over the same period, whereas the throughputs at company- and dealer-owned forecourts increased.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Hypermarket Dealer Company

Average UK Site Throughput, by Ownership

Source: Experian Catalist

Million litres

Average Site Throughput, by Ownership

Forecourt Ownership Shares

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Dealer Company Hypermarket


Number of Sites

Forecourt Ownership Shares

The relative proportion of the total throughput at UK forecourts has remained relatively constant since 2010. On average, hypermarkets account for 60% of the annual throughput, although they only make up 19% of forecourts. On the other hand, dealer-owned forecourts make up 64% of forecourts but only account for 13% of the throughput.

Hypermarket60%

Dealer13%

Company27%

Average UK Site Throughput Share, by Ownership


Million litres

Average UK Site Throughput Share, by Ownership

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5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2000 2005 2010 2015 2019

Cars Motorcycles Light Goods Vehicles Heavy Goods Vehicles Other

Great Britain Vehicle Parc, by TypeMillions

Source: DfT / DVLA

The number of miles driven in Great Britain has increased by 14% since 2000. The majority of this increase was achieved by light goods vehicles, which saw an increase in miles driven by 57%. Cars and taxis continue to account for the majority of miles travelled (78% in Great Britain in 2019). The proportion of miles driven by cars and taxis in 2019 fall slightly under the 10-year average of 79%, whereas the proportion of miles travelled by light goods vehicles (15%) lies above the 10-year average of 13%.

Great Britain’s vehicle parc has increased by a third over the past 20 years, from 28.9 million to 38.7 million vehicles.Research by the University of Hertfordshire estimates that the number of people employed in the “gig” economy doubled from 5% of the adult population in 2016 to 10% in 2019 (University of Hertfordshire et al., 2019). ONS estimates that the gig economy employs 1.1 million adults (Hansard, 2018). These increases could be expected to result in an increase in the number of motorcycles and other two-wheeled vehicles in the parc, but this has not materialised due to the popularity of delivery services. Since 2015, the average annual increase in the number of motorcycles in the vehicle parc has been 0.6% compared to an annual average increase of 1.5% for cars. Light goods vehicles have seen largest increase in numbers: since 2015, the number of these vehicles in the parc has increased at an annual average rate of 3.5%.

GB Vehicle Parc, by Type

GB Road Traffic, by Vehicle Type

Mobility



Cars, motorcycles, light and heavy goods vehicles, as well as a wide range of other vehicles that keep the UK moving are supplied with a range of fuels from the downstream oil sector. Government efforts to incentivise the uptake of low emissions vehicles have succeeded to increase the numbers of those cars in the car parc and among new car registrations, although they still make up less than 2.5% of the total number of cars on the roads.

In addition to cars, there are range of other vehicle fleets that require fuels

The propulsion of light duty vehicles

is changing towards more hybrid and electric vehicles

Hybrid and electric vehicles continue to make

up less than a million of total

(38 million) vehicles on the road

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2000 2005 2010 2015 2019

Cars Light Commercial Vehicles Heavy Goods Vehicles Other

Source: DfT

Billion miles

Great Britain Road Traffic, by Vehicle Type

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0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Petrol-only Diesel-only Hybrid Other

Source: DfT

Thousands

UK New Car Registration, by Propulsion

Great Britain Vehicle Parc Share, by TypeMillions

Source: DfT / DVLA

Cars, 83.3%

Light Goods Vehicles, 9.4%

Motorcycles, 3.5%

Heavy Goods Vehicles, 1.4%Buses/Coaches, 0.5%

Other, 1.8%

In absolute numbers, there are fewer than a million “other” propulsion cars in the UK. Despite their small numbers, this category grew by 23% in 2019. The fastest growth was seen in hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles, which grew in numbers by 76% in 2019. Since 2010, hybrid electric vehicles have increased in number by over 500%.

Great Britain Car Parc, “Other” Propulsions


On average, cars and taxis make up over four-fifths of the vehicle parc in Great Britain, while light goods vehicles account for another tenth. In 2019, only the proportional share of light goods vehicles exceeded its 10-year average share.

While the overall car parc has also increased by a third since 2000, the number of petrol-only cars has decreased by 11%, while the number of diesel-only cars has increased by nearly three-fold. Over the past two years, this trend has reversed so that the number of petrol-only cars increased by 3%, while the number of diesel-only cars decreased by less than 1%–the first decrease recorded since 2000. At 59%, the 2019 share of petrol-only cars falls below the 10-year average of 63%, whereas the 2019 diesel-only share, at 38%, is above the 10-year average of 36%. Although in absolute terms hybrid and “other” propulsion cars form a very small part of the car parc, they have seen the largest proportional increases.0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2005 2010 2015 2019

Petrol-only Diesel-only Hybrid OtherMillions

Source: DfT / DVLA

Great Britain Car Parc, by PropulsionGreat Britain Car Parc, by Propulsion

Great Britain Vehicle Parc Average Share, by Type

The number of new car registrations in the UK has continued to decrease in 2019 (by just over 1%), again led by an 18% decrease in the number of diesel only car registrations. This decrease is partially offset by a 3% increase to the number of petrol-only car registrations. Hybrid car registrations increased by 12%, while hybrid electric car registrations increased by 30%. “Other” propulsion registrations increased by 26%, but their low absolute numbers mean thatthis increase does not constitute a significant contribution to the overall number of 2019 car registrations

UK New Car Registration, by Propulsion

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000 2005 2010 2015 2019

Hybrid Electric Plug-in/Range-Extended Hybrid Battery-only Gas Other

Source: DfT / DVLA

Thousands

Great Britain Car Parc, “Other” Propulsions

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Source: DfT

Sites Vehicles

UK Forecourt Utilisation

3850

3950

4050

4150

4250

4350

4450

4550

4650

8100

8200

8300

8400

8500

8600

8700

8800

8900

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total Number of Sites Vehicles per site


The number of “other” propulsion registrations have increased by 148% since 2015, largely as a result of increases in hybrid electric car registrations. In 2019, the number of battery-only registrations more than doubled, from 15,579 to 37,608. The number of hydrogen fuel cell car registrations also doubled in 2019, increasing from 37 to 80 registrations. The number of gas propulsion cars registered fluctuates heavily but tends to remain below 100 annual registrations. The number of range-extended hybrid registrations fell by 89% in 2019, from 2150 to 248 registrations.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Hybrid Electric Plug-in/Range-extended Hybrid Battery-only Other

Source: DfT

Thousands

UK New Car Registration, ”Other” PropulsionsUK New Car Registration, “Other” Propulsion

Although over time, the number of vehicles per forecourt site has increased, vehicle efficiency and propulsion types have both changed over time. In addition to the increasing burden of vehicles for each forecourt site, the reasons that consumers cite for visiting forecourt sites has changed: as most forecourts have shops, purchasing fuel is now only the third most common “shopper mission” (Association of Convenience Stores, 2019).

UK Forecourt Utilisation

The location and speed of chargers is determined by charging behaviours. 55% of on-street connections are slow charging, suggesting that most are used for overnight (or long-term) charging. On the other hand, 72% and 23% of service station connections are, respectively, rapid and ultra-rapid chargers, suggesting that users are imitating behaviours akin to topping-up conventional internal combustion engines with liquid fuels. It should be noted that the number of charging connectors is not directly comparable to the number of forecourts in the UK.

Source: Zap Map, zap-map.com

Number of Connectors

Location of Public EV Charging Connectors, 2019

On-street, 6648, 21%

Public car park, 5857,

18%

Retail car park, 4886,

15%Hotel / Accommodation,

3437, 11%

Service Station, 2027, 6%

Workplace car park, 1932, 6%

Attraction, 1732, 6%

Dealership forecourt, 1423, 5%

Educational establishment, 752, 2%

Leisure centre, 699, 2%

Other, 2549, 8%

Location of Public EV Charging Connectors, 2019

The large increases in cars with partial- or total-battery propulsion systems (as seen on page 51) have resulted in a corresponding increase in the number of charging connectors in the UK. Since 2011, the number of charging connectors has increased 19-fold, with the introduction of ultra-rapid connectors in 2018. Although the number of fast and rapid chargers have increased steadily, the number of slow charging connectors in the UK nearly doubled in 2019.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Slow Fast Rapid Ultra-Rapid

Source: Zap Map, zap-map.com

Number of Chargers

Public EV Charging Connectors, by TypePublic EV Charging Connectors, by Type

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Process Safety Event Rates

Health and Safety



Given the prevalence of workplace dangers in the downstream oil sector, the industry has put in significant effort to reduce workplace hazards and ensure the safety of employees and contractors. As a result, the industry’s process safety event rate continues to decrease.

The amount of effort the industry

has put in to reduce workplace hazards

has resulted in a generally

safe industry

In 2019, there were a total

of 18 reported RIDDOR (greater than 7 days off work) injuries

A workforce of over

100,000 people

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Tier 1 Tier 2

Source: UKPIA

PSE per million hours

Process Safety Event Rates

Number of High-High alarms in 2019

0The occurrence of Tier 1 and 2 process safety events across UKPIA members is represented as the rate of events against the number of total hours worked, normalised per million hours. In 2019, while the Tier 1 rate increased slightly the Tier 2 rate decreased for the second year. The number of Tier 3 events (the number of times a safety-related or instrumented system has been activated on finished petrol tanks) remains zero for the third consecutive year.

A High - High Alarm is defined as failure of the trip sensor

on tanks when filling resulting in a Tier 3 loss of primary containment

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Refinery Process Safety Events

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10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Tier 1 Tier 2

Refinery Process Safety Events

Source: UKPIA

Number of Events


The number of Tier 1 events at refineries is unchanged for the third year, while the number of Tier 2 events has decreased by 41% to 15 in 2019.

2019 Tier 1 Events by consequence


1 Fire or Explosion >$25k in Cost

4 Losses of Primary Containment

There was a single Tier 1 event at terminals in 2019 after no occurrences of either Tier 1 or 2 events in 2018.

Terminals Process Safety Events

0

1

2

3

4

5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Tier 1 Tier 2

Terminals Process Safety Events

Source: UKPIA

Number of Events

1 Fire or Explosion >$2.5k in Cost

12 Losses of Primary Containment

2019 Tier 1 Event Consequences


1 Fire or Explosion >$2.5k in Cost

None

None

None

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Frequency of Lost Work Injuries

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Refinery Contractor Refinery Employee Marketing Contractor Marketing Employee

Source: UKPIA

LWI per million hours

Frequency of Lost Work Injuries

The lost work injury frequency presents lost work incidents relative to the millions of hours worked. Year-on-year, there was minimal change in the frequency of lost work injuries among refinery workers in 2019. The lost work injury frequency rate increased substantially (over 400%) year-on-year in 2018 for marketing contractors but decreased by 32% in 2019. Overall, the frequency of lost work injuries among UKPIA members decreased by 23% in 2019. Here again, the frequency is not representative of the absolute number of injuries: among refinery workers 7 injuries were reported (up from 6 in 2018), and 4 were reported among marketing employees (down from 9 in 2018).

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20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Refinery Employees Refinery Contractors Marketing Employees

RIDDOR >7 Day Injury Rate

Source: UKPIA

Injuries per 100k workers

RIDDOR >7 Days Injury Occurences

Reported injuries, diseases, and dangerous occurrences (RIDDOR) >7-day figures show the frequency of injuries in three downstream oil sector worker categories per 100 000 workers. In 2019, there were no injuries among marketing employees, down from a single injury in 2018. 4 injuries were reported among refinery employees in 2019, up from zero injuries in 2018. There has been a large jump in injuries among refinery contractors, year-on-year, in 2019. Although the rate represents this as an increase from 109 in 2018 to 190 in 2019, in absolute terms there were 14 injuries in 2019 compared to 8 in 2018.

The total number of reported refining injuries decreased for the second year, from a total of 26 in 2018 to 22 in 2019, mostly through a 78% decrease in reported restricted work injuries. This was partially balanced by an 18% increase in medical treatment cases and a 17% increase in lost work injuries.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Medical Treatment Cases Restricted Work Injuries Lost Work Injuries

Refining Injuries, by Type

Source: UKPIA

Reported Injuries

Refining Injuries, by Type Econ

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Glossary



“battery-only” car propelled by battery power alone

BEIS Department for Business, Energy, and Industrial Strategy

CCC Committee for Climate Change

CH4 Methane

C4H6 1,3-Butadiene

C6H6 Benzene

CHP Combined Heat and Power

CO Carbon Monoxide

CO2 Carbon Dioxide

CVM SA Chain-linked Volume Measure, Seasonally Adjusted

DAQI Daily Air Quality Index

DEFRA Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs

DfT Department for Transport

“diesel-only” car propelled by diesel fuel alone

DVLA Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency

E5 A petrol blend with a maximum ethanol content of 5% by volume and 2.7% oxygen content by mass

E10 A petrol blend with a maximum ethanol content of 10% by volume and 3.7% oxygen content by mass

EC European Council

EV electric vehicle

FAME Fatty Acid Methyl Ester

FQD Fuel Quality Directive

GAAP Generally Accepted Accounting Principles

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GHG Greenhouse Gas

HMRC Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs

HVO Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil

Hybrid car propelled by some combination of an internal combustion engine and an electric motor

ICE internal combustions

IMO 2020 International Maritime Organisation’s 2020 sulphur regulation

LCP large combustion plant

LWI lost work injury

NAEI National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory

NDC Nationally Determined Contribution

NMVOC Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compound

NOx Nitrogen Oxide

-oe oil equivalent

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ONS Office for National Statistics

O3 Ozone

“petrol-only” car propelled by petrol fuel alone

PM10 Particulate Matter (10 m or less in diameter)

PSE process safety event

RED Renewable Energy Directive

RES-T renewable energy share, transport

RIDDOR Reporting of injuries, diseases, and dangerous occurrences

ROCE Return on Capital Employed

RTFC Renewable Transport Fuel Certificate

RTFO Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation

SO2 Sulphur Dioxide

“sulphur-free” fuels with less than 10 ppm sulphur

tCO2e tonnes of Carbon Dioxide equivalents

ULEZ Ultra Low Emissions Zone

US EIA United States Energy Information Administration

VAT Value-Added Tax



Greenhouse Gases

Carbon Dioxide (CO2): the most significant GHG emitted in the UK. CO2 contributes to climate change due to its positive radiative forcing effect. Fuel combustion contributed to 96% of CO2 emissions in 2018.

Methane (CH4): the second most significant GHG emitted in the UK. CH4 contributes to climate change due to its positive radiative forcing effect. Major sources include enteric fermentation, landfilling of wastes, and leakage from the gas distribution system. (DEFRA, 2020)

Air Pollutants

1,3-Butadiene (C4H6): A type of NMVOC. C4H6 emissions are of concern due to their effects on human health, specifically causing irritation to the eyes, throat, and lungs, and are carcinogens. C4H6 is released due to fuel combustion. Transport and industry are major source of C4H6 emissions.

Benzene (C6H6): A type of NMVOC. C6H6 emissions are of concern due to their effects on human health, specifically they cause difficulty thinking, changes to heart function, decrease blood cell formation, and are carcinogens. Petrol vapour and transport emissions are major sources of C6H6 emissions.

Carbon Monoxide (CO): arises from incomplete fuel combustion. CO emissions are of concern due to their effects on human health, specifically leading to decreased uptake of oxygen by lungs, and its role in tropospheric ozone formation. Residential sector combustion, road transport, and industry are major sources of CO.

CountriesWhere two-letter country codes are used, they are those used by the European Union to refer to member and associated states. Where three-letter country codes are used, they are those listed in ISO 3166 alpha-3. The only exception is Saudi Arabia, as SAU, for clarity.

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Nitrogen Oxide (NOx): of concern due to their effects on human health, specifically causing lung irritation and lowering resistance of pneumonia, bronchitis, and other respiratory infections. In the presence of sunlight, NOx reacts to produce photochemical smog, and if hydrocarbons are present, can react to produce ozone. Almost 97% of all NOx is emitted during fuel combustion, making transport, energy production, and industry the primary sources of NOx.

Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compound (NMVOC): a wide variation of organic compounds, the majority of which display similar behaviour in the atmosphere. Some NMVOCs have direct impacts on human health. NMVOCs are emitted as combustion products, as vapour arising from petrol and solvent use, and from various other sources. Industry, fossil fuel extraction and distribution, and agricultures are the major sources of NMVOCs.

Ozone (O3): Ozone is not emitted directly but is formed in the atmosphere of a large spatial scale by the sunlight-initiated oxidation of VOCs and CO in the presence of NOx. Ozone is detrimental to human health.

Particulate Matter (PM10): particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 10m. The physical and chemical composition, source, and size of airborne particulate matter varies widely. Concentrations of particles in the atmosphere is linked with human health effects and plays a role in the forming of winter-time smog. The PM10 standard was designed to identify those particles likely to be inhaled by humans. Road transport, especially diesel-propulsion vehicles, and industry, especially construction and quarrying, are major sources of PM10.

Sulphur Dioxide (SO2): Along with PM10 plays a role in the forming of winter-time smog. SO2 emissions have human health effects, notably causing irritation of the nose and throat, leading to the narrowing of airways. Asthma-sufferers are especially susceptible to SO2 concentrations. Fuel combustion accounts for 94% of SO2 emissions in the UK and originate from fuels’ sulphur content. (DEFRA, 2020)

Conversion Factors

BEIS Conversion Factors (Litres per Tonne)

Product 2018 2019Propane 1944 1942Butane 1733 1738Other Petroleum Gases 1618 1731Naphtha (Light Distillate Feedstock) 1482 1483Aviation (Gasoline) 1386 1370Aviation (Turbine Kerosene) 1250 1250Marked Kerosene (not included in ATK) 1248 1246Petrol

Total 1355 1348Super – 1348Premium – 1370Bio Components – 1264

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Automotive DieselTotal 1193 1186“Sulphur Free” – 1184Biodiesel – 1137

Gas Oil & Marine Diesel 1172 1171Fuel Oil 1015 1017Bitumen 980 980Lubricants

Total 1157 1157Other – 1017

Average 1247 1240CrudeImported 1181 1181Indigenous 1199 1199Average Refinery Throughput 1192 1192

UKPIA 2020 statistical review 2020€¦ · GDP Growth and Demand for Oil Products In 2018, the...

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