UK Met Office seasonal forecast “warm winter”, based on >33% probability of warm tercile....
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Transcript of UK Met Office seasonal forecast “warm winter”, based on >33% probability of warm tercile....
• UK Met Office seasonal forecast “warm winter”, based on >33% probability of warm tercile.
• Statistical method (May SST) forecast NAO+
• Dynamical method (GloSea4) forecast strong NAO-, but warmer than average UK temperature.
Met Office Seasonal Forecasts for winter 2009/10
Plots from UK Met Office and NOAA ESRL
Mike Blackburn Seasonal Climate Discussion 14 April 2010
Rodwell and Folland (2002)
Met Office NAO Statistical Forecast
Did the Spring SST anomalies re-emerge in Autumn?
yes and no.…
November 2009
• UK Met Office seasonal forecast “warm winter”, based on >33% probability of warm tercile.
• Dynamical method (GloSea4) forecast strong NAO-, but warmer than average UK temperature
• Why?
Forecast pattern did not extend east into Europe
Old climatology: no account of warming trend?
Met Office Seasonal Forecast