UK Foodservice: The Future of Foodservice in the United ... - SP.pdf · The Profit sector accounted...
Transcript of UK Foodservice: The Future of Foodservice in the United ... - SP.pdf · The Profit sector accounted...
UK Foodservice: The Future of Foodservice in the United Kingdom to 2019
FS0007MR
June 2015
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Executive Summary
Macro Economic Analysis and Trends Macroeconomic Analysis
Consumer Trends
Operator Trends
Technology Trends
Foodservice Market Attractiveness Market Size and Forecasts
Market Share split by Profit Sector and Cost Sector
Profit Sector Analysis Profit Sector Analysis by Channels & Sub-channels- Sales Analysis, Outlet Analysis and Transaction Analysis • Accommodation - Bed & Breakfast, Guest House, Holiday Park, Hostel, Hotel & Motel
• Leisure – Entertainment, Venue, Visitor Attraction
• Pub, Club & Bar – Pub & Bar, Private Member & Social Club, Nightclub
• Restaurants - Full Service Restaurant, Quick Service Restaurant & Fast Food, Coffee & Tea Shop, Ice Cream Vendor
• Retail – Baker, Convenience Store, Delicatessen, Department Store, Garden Centre, Other Retail, Service Station Forecourt, Supermarket & Hypermarket
• Travel – Air, Rail
• Workplace - Government Department & Local Authority, Industrial, Retail, Financial & Office Based
Cost Sector Analysis Cost Sector Analysis by Channels & Sub-channels-Sales Analysis, Outlet Analysis and Transaction Analysis • Education - Further Education, Secondary School, Tertiary, Training Centre
• Healthcare – Hospital, Medical Centre, Residential Care
• Military & Civil Defence - Military Overall, Police & Emergency Service
• Welfare & Service - Other Welfare & Service, Prison, Welfare Meal
Competitive Landscape Company Overview, Product Portfolio, Number of Outlets and Revenues
Regulatory Scenario
Appendix
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List of Figures
Figure 1: GDP per Capita, 2009-2014
Figure 2: Consumer Price Index, 2009-2014
Figure 3: Unemployment Rate, 2009-2014
Figure 4: Age Profile, 2014
Figure 5: UK Foodservice: Overall Sales (GBP Million) & Annual Growth (%), 2009-2019
Figure 6: UK Foodservice: Sales by Sector (%), 2014 vs. 2019
Figure 7: Comparative Growth Analysis by Channels, 2009-2014 vs 2014-2019
Figure 8: Profit Sector: Channel share (%), 2014 vs. 2019
Figure 9: Profit Sector: Average Transaction Price (GBP), 2009-2019
Figure 10: Profit Sector: Comparative Growth Analysis by Channels, 2009-2014 vs 2014-2019
Figure 11: Accommodation- Sales (GBP) and sales growth (%), 2009-2019
Figure 12: Leisure- Sales (GBP) and sales growth (%), 2009-2019
Figure 13: Pub, Club & Bar- Sales (GBP) and sales growth (%), 2009-2019
Figure 14: Restaurants - Sales (GBP) and sales growth (%), 2009-2019
Figure 15: Retail - Sales (GBP) and sales growth (%), 2009-2019
Figure 16: Travel - Sales (GBP) and sales growth (%), 2009-2019
Figure 17: Workplace - Sales (GBP) and sales growth (%), 2009-2019
Figure 18: Profit Sector: Comparative Growth Analysis by Channels, Sales per Outlet & Number of Outlets, 2009- 2014
vs 2014-2019
Figure 19: Accommodation - Outlets and Sales per Outlet by Channel (GBP), 2009-2019
Figure 20: Leisure - Outlets and Sales per Outlet by Channel (GBP), 2009-2019
Figure 21: Pub, Club, and Bar - Outlets and Sales per Outlet by Channel (GBP), 2009-2019
Figure 22: Restaurants – Outlets and Sales per Outlet by Channel (GBP), 2009-2019
Figure 23: Retail – Outlets and Sales per Outlet by Channel (GBP), 2009-2019
Figure 24: Workplace - Outlets and Sales per Outlet by Channel (GBP), 2009-2019
Figure 25: Profit Sector: Comparative Growth Analysis by Channels, Transactions per Outlet & Number of
Transactions, 2009- 2014 vs 2014-2019
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List of Figures
Figure 26: Accommodation - Transactions and Transactions per Outlet by Channel, 2009-2019
Figure 27: Leisure - Transactions and Transactions per Outlet by Channel, 2009-2019
Figure 28: Pub, Club, and Bar - Transactions and Transactions per Outlet by Channel, 2009-2019
Figure 29: Restaurants - Transactions and Transactions per Outlet by Channel, 2009-2019
Figure 30: Retail - Transactions and Transactions per Outlet by Channel, 2009-2019
Figure 31: Workplace - Transactions and Transactions per Outlet by Channel, 2009-2019
Figure 32: Cost Sector: Channel share (%), 2014 vs. 2019
Figure 33: Cost Sector: Average Transaction Price (GBP), 2009-2019
Figure 34: Cost Sector: Comparative Growth Analysis by Channels, 2009-2014 vs 2014-2019
Figure 35: Education- Sales (GBP) and sales growth (%), 2009-2019
Figure 36: Healthcare- Sales (GBP) and sales growth (%), 2009-2019
Figure 37: Military & Civil Defense - Sales (GBP) and sales growth (%), 2009-2019
Figure 38: Welfare & Services - Sales (GBP) and sales growth (%), 2009-2019
Figure 39: Cost Sector: Comparative Growth Analysis by Channels, Sales per Outlet & Number of Outlets, 2009- 2014
vs 2014-2019
Figure 40: Education - Outlets and Sales per Outlet by Channel (GBP), 2009-2019
Figure 41: Healthcare - Outlets and Sales per Outlet by Channel (GBP), 2009-2019
Figure 42: Military & Civil Defense - Outlets and Sales per Outlet by Channel (GBP), 2009-2019
Figure 43: Welfare & Services – Outlets and Sales per Outlet by Channel (GBP), 2009-2019
Figure 44: Cost Sector: Comparative Growth Analysis by Channels, Transactions per Outlet & Number of
Transactions, 2009- 2014 vs 2014-2019
Figure 45: Education- Transactions and Transactions per Outlet by Channel, 2009-2019
Figure 46: Healthcare - Transactions and Transactions per Outlet by Channel, 2009-2019
Figure 47: Welfare & Services - Transactions and Transactions per Outlet by Channel, 2009-2019
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List of Tables
Table 1: Leading Foodservice players in UK, 2014
Table 2: Profit Sector Outlets, 2009-2014
Table 3: Cost Sector Outlets, 2009-2014
Table 4: Profit Sector Transactions (Million), 2009-2014
Table 5: Cost Sector Transactions (Million), 2009-2014
Table 6: Profit Sector Sales (GBP Million), 2009-2014
Table 7: Cost Sector Sales (GBP Million), 2009-2014
Table 8: Key Foodservice Definitions
Table 9: Profit Sector Definitions
Table 10: Cost Sector Definitions
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Executive Summary
Overall Foodservice sector
Current market size (2014): GBPXX.X billion; Market size forecasts (2019): GBPXX.X billion; CAGR growth: XX.X%
Per capita sales: GBPXX.X
Sluggish economic recovery due to low productivity and high debt, affected the UK Foodservice market during 2009-
2014.
Cost Sector
As a % of Foodservice in 2014: XX.X%; CAGR growth: XX.X%; Largest channel in the cost sector: Education
Within the Cost Sector, the Education channel had the highest share of sales in 2014, at XX.X%.
Profit Sector
As a % of Foodservice in 2014: XX.X%; CAGR growth: XX.X%; Largest channel in the profit sector: Restaurants
Key trends in the UK Foodservice industry
Due to higher obesity rates in the UK, consumers are changing eating preferences from processed foods to local,
organic, and fresh foods..
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Macro-economic analysis: GDP per capita will benefit from rising consumer spending, supported by low inflation and rising wages
GDP Per Capita
Consumer Price Index
The UK’s GDP per capita (nominal) grew significantly, by
XX.X% in 2014. However, it fell by XX.X% in 2012 because
of maintenance delays in North Sea oil fields.
The consumer price index (CPI) was XX.X in 2014, up
XX.X% from the previous year.
Source: Timetric
100
105
110
115
120
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Co
ns
um
er
Pri
ce In
de
x
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
An
nu
al G
row
th (%
)
GD
P P
er
Cap
ita (
GB
P)
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Consumer Trends: Higher obesity rates in the UK driving the trend of healthy eating
A shift towards healthy eating- UAE consumers are shifting their
eating preferences from processed foods to local, organic, and
fresh foods. According to a survey conducted by Canadean in
December 2014, a third of UK consumers want to eat and drink
more healthily in 2015.
Changing breakfast trends- Two major new trends related to
breakfast are emerging among the UK consumers:
• Growing trend of out-of-home breakfast- With increasingly
hectic lifestyles, more consumers are eating breakfast away
from home.
• Brinner, eating breakfast foods at dinner time- A trend that
first emerged in the US, the brinner trend is fast growing in the
UK.
Bacon Sandwich
Toast
Eggs
Sausage
Baked Beans
Top 5 out-of -home
breakfast foods in the UK
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The UK Foodservice industry grew at a CAGR of XX.X% during 2009-2014 and valued GBPXX.X million (US$XX.X
million) in 2014. Encouraged by falling unemployment rates and rising real wages, the UK Foodservice industry is
forecast to grow at a CAGR of XX.X% during 2014-2019.
The Profit sector accounted for the major share, at XX.X% of total Foodservice sales in 2014, and is forecast to grow
at a CAGR of XX.X% during 2014-2019.
Foodservice: Improving economy condition due to falling unemployment rate and increasing consumer spending will drive the foodservice market
UK Foodservice: Overall Sales (GBP
Million) & Annual Growth (%), 2009-2019
UK Foodservice: Sales by Sector (%),
2014 vs. 2019
2014
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
An
nu
al G
row
th (%
)
Fo
od
serv
ice S
ale
s in
GB
P M
illi
on
Profit
Cost
2019
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Sluggish economic recovery due to low productivity and high debt has affected the UK Foodservice market,
which grew marginally, at a CAGR of XX.X%, during 2009-2014.
The Restaurants and Pub, Club & Bar will remain the dominating channels
Bubble size = 2014 Sales -2%
1%
3%
5%
-2% 1% 3% 5%
Sale
s in
GB
P M
illio
n C
AG
R (
%)
2014
-2019
Sales in GBP Million CAGR (%) 2009-2014
Comparative growth analysis by channels, 2009-2014 vs. 2014-2019
Restaurants
Pub, club and bar
Accommodation
Leisure
Workplace
Education
Retail
Healthcare
Military & civil defense
Travel
Welfare & services
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Profit sector sales by channels: As the companies cut down on travel budgets, the demand for budget accommodation will witness significant growth
Accommodation- Sales (GBP) and sales growth (%)
Sales and Sales Growth by Channels, 2009-2019 (in GBP)
Leisure- Sales (GBP) and sales growth (%)
The inbound tourist spend is expected to
increase by XX.X% annually in 2015, which will
contribute to Accommodation Foodservice
sales, forecast to grow at a CAGR of XX.X%
during 2014-2019.
Leisure Foodservice sales are forecast to grow
at a CAGR of XX.X% during 2014-2019.
Entertainment is the largest sub-channel at
GBPXX.X million (US$XX.X million) sales in
2014, and is forecast to grow at a CAGR of
XX.X% during 2009-2014.
0%
1%
2%
3%
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
200
9
201
0
201
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201
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9
An
nu
al G
row
th (%
)
Sale
s (
in G
BP
Mil
lio
n)
Hotel & Motel Guest House Bed & Breakfast
Holiday Park Hostel % Annual Growth
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
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201
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201
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201
9
An
nu
al G
row
th (%
)
Sale
s in
(G
BP
Mil
lio
n)
Entertainment Visitor Attraction Venue % Annual Growth
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Cost sector outlets by channels: Education channel will be registering highest sales per outlet during 2014-2019
Education - Outlets and Sales per Outlet by Channel (GBP)
Outlets and Sales per Outlet by Channel (in GBP)
The number of outlets for the Education channel
is forecast to grow at a CAGR of XX.X% during
2014-2019, while sales per outlet for the channel
is forecast to grow at a CAGR of XX.X% during
the same period.
Healthcare – Outlets and Sales per Outlet by Channel (GBP)
The number of outlets for the Healthcare channel
is forecast to grow at a CAGR of XX.X% during
2014-2019 while sales per outlet for the channel
are expected to grow at a CAGR of XX.X%
during the same period.
Bubble size = Number of Outlets 2014
-2%
1%
3%
5%
7%
-2% 1% 3% 5% 7%
Ou
tlets
by C
ha
nn
el C
AG
R (
%)
2014-2
019
Sales per Outlet by Channel CAGR (%) 2014-2019
Pre-School
Primary School
Secondary School
Further Education
Training Centre
Children's ActivityCentre
Tertiary
0%
1%
2%
3%
0% 1% 2% 3%
Ou
tlets
by C
ha
nn
el C
AG
R (
%)
2014-2
019
Sales per Outlet by Channel CAGR (%) 2014-2019
Medical Centre
ResidentialCare
Hospital
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Competitive Landscape – Key players
Leading Foodservice players in UK
Company Name 2014 Number
of Outlets
2014 Revenues in
GBP million Overview Product Portfolio
Whitbread XX.X XX.X
Whitbread is
a hotel, coffee
shop and restaurant
company
headquartered
in Dunstable, UK and
employs 45,000
people.
Popular brands include
Premier Inn, hub by
Premier Inn, Costa,
Brewers Fayre, Beefeater
Grill, Table Table and
Taybarns
Compass
Group
XX.X XX.X
Compass group is the
leading provider of
contract catering and
support services in
the UK and Ireland. It
has 10,000 client sites
across the UK and
Ireland and has
3million customers.
It provides catering
services to schools,
sports and leisure
venues, retirement
homes and workplace
Source: Company Websites & Secondary Research
Appendix - Profit Sector Outlets
Channel Sub-Channel 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Accommodation
Bed and Breakfasts
(B&B)
Guest Houses
Holiday Parks
Hostels
Hotels and Motels
Leisure
Entertainment
Venue
Visitor Attractions
Pubs, Clubs and
Bars
Pubs and Bars
Private Member and
Social Clubs
Nightclubs
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Market Data Methodology: Foodservice Market Data is created by the consistent application of robust research across all channels
Creating Robust, Consistent & Comparable Results through:
100% Standardized Definitions 100% Standardized Processes
Phasing work by channel by country Systematic Senior Management Review
1. Baselines Developed using Internal Research Resources
• Socio-economic and demographic databases
• Historic market databases and reports
• Company database and Foodservice database
2a. Industry Research:
Extensive Desk Research (Ongoing)
• Industry and trade research
• Reports published by international
organisations
• National statistics and other publically
available sources
• Expert Opinion: Collation of opinion
taken from journalist interviews of
leading industry figures
Top-down
cross-checks
Bottom-up
data creation
Data
Finalization
3. Marketing Modeling & Analyst
Triangulation
• Modeling of any gaps in data from
previous two research phases
• Consolidation and verification of inputs
for creation of models to benchmark
data across sectors and geographies
• Forecasting
• Triangulation and Conflict Resolution
• Review by Senior Project Managers
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Key Foodservice Definitions
Term Definition
Foodservice
Foodservice is defined as the cost of all food and drink, including on-trade drinks not drunk
with food, for immediate consumption on the premises or in designated eating areas shared
with other foodservice operators, or in the case of takeaway transactions, freshly prepared
food for immediate consumption. Foodservice is restricted to the sale of food and drink in
specific foodservice channels defined below and excludes vending machines.
Profit Sector
A number of foodservice channels have been grouped together to be termed the 'Profit
Sector’. These include Accommodation, Leisure, Restaurants, Retail, Travel, Workplace,
and Pubs, Clubs and Bars. Neither operators nor consumers, or companies in the case of
the Workplace channel, typically receive a subsidy for the foodservice transaction, and
largely represent non-state foodservice operations.
Cost Sector
A number of foodservice channels have been grouped together to be termed the 'Cost
Sector'. These include Healthcare, Education, Military and Civil Defense, and Welfare and
Services. This sector typically represents the state’s foodservice operations.
Food Transactions
The total number of visits by individuals to foodservice locations that involve the
consumption of either food, or food and drink. Drink-only transactions are excluded from
transaction data, but covered in sales data; if several people visit one location at once and
there is only one bill, such as a group dining in a restaurant, the number of transactions is
counted as being one for each person in the group. The concept of ‘meals’ is broadly
analogous to transaction data, less a typically very small amount for snack-only
transactions.
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About Canadean
About Canadean
Canadean is a full-service business information provider with in-house market research capabilities. We specialize in analysis across
the Consumer Markets Value Chain, covering suppliers, producers, distribution and consumers.
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