Uk energy scenarios 2006

Society Energy Environment SEE 1

UK ENERGY SCENARIOS

crossing the fossil and nuclear bridge to a safe, sustainable, economically viable energy future

Preliminary scenarios for discussion and development only

Mark Barrett [email protected]

Complex Built Environment SystemsUniversity College London

mailto:[email protected]

Society Energy Environment SEE

Scenario development process

Introduction

Models used

Demand drivers

End use sectors

Supply sectors

Discussion• energy• emissions• economics

System dynamics and spatial issues

More international aspects

Energy security

Please note that some of the slides are animated (they have animated in the

title). View these slides for a few moments and the animation should start and keep looping back to the

beginning.


Introduction 1

This outline of UK energy and environment scenarios has been developed with the intention of identifying the main problems the UK will face in meeting future energy needs and environmental objectives, and to describe possible policy options for resolving these problems. The approach here is to assume policy options and estimate the energy, emission and microeconomic impacts of these policy options. It is not claimed that the scenarios are optimum in that more robust and cost-effective solutions may be found. The aim is to illustrate a development path that is incremental, flexible, and secure, with no undue reliance on fuels or technologies having substantial risks.

The aims are to identify energy and environment strategies that:• enhance the security of UK energy services by reducing imported fuel dependence and technology risk• meet energy needs with safe, sustainable energy systems• limit environmental impact, with an emphasis here on:

– the greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, – atmospheric pollutants; sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter and carbon monoxide

• are technically feasible and economically viable• give a practical development path leading from finite fuels to renewable energy

A broader aim is to consider temporal and spatial aspects of energy demand and supply, within the UK and at the international scale, to ensure technical feasibility and take account of the international context


Introduction 2

The scenarios are designed to be practical, feasible, but are not necessarily ‘best.’ It is not possible to objectively define the best scenario because:

• although there is some agreement about goals concerning the environment, consumption, technology risk and irreversibility, market cost, subsidies, etc., the weights attached to these goals are subjective and differ between individuals and groups

• there are aspects which it will never be possible to accurately quantify, such as: what is the probability of an accident or terrorist attack on current or future nuclear facilities, and what would be its impact on the UK, even if radioactive release were negligible?

• the future evolution of technologies in the long term is uncertain; half a century ago, the UK had negligible nuclear power or natural gas supply.

Some observations:• Developments of social structure, attitudes, demand, supply, technology, etc. are all, to some extent,

determined by national policies.• Planning UK energy futures can not be done in isolation from Europe and the rest of the world, because of

global energy resources, energy trade, and international politics.• As yet there are no supply options which score highest on all criteria and therefore these must balanced

according to present knowledge. The further into the future, the greater the uncertainties with respect to demand, technology development, and the international context. As solar electricity (e.g. photovoltaic), electricity storage and long distance transmission become cheaper, then there may be agreement that other options are inferior and the ‘energy problem’ will perhaps be ‘solved.’.

No consideration is made here of how policy options would be implemented with statutory, fiscal or other instruments. A presumption is made that these would be developed and applied as necessary to secure the UK’s future energy services and economy, and to protect the environment.


Policy options

The policy aims are to be met using five classes of option:• Behavioural change: demand, and choice and use of technologies

– demand substitution, less air travel– modal shift from car and truck to bus and rail, lower motorway speeds, building temperatures– smaller cars

• Demand management– insulation, ventilation control, recycling, efficient appliances...

• Energy efficient conversion– cogeneration...

• Fuel switching– to low/zero emission renewable and other sources

• Emission control technologies– flue gas desulphurisation, catalytic converters, particulate traps...


Policy options

In the scenarios, technologies are excluded according to criteria of irreversibility, exposure to risk of large scale hazards, the lack of clear market costs, or if they do not work. Accordingly:

• new nuclear capacity is excluded because of irreversibility, lack of market cost because of insurance, and risk of large scale hazard.

• carbon sequestration through pumping CO2 underground is not deployed because it an irreversible technique that increases primary CO2 emissions, and the risks of accidental release in the long term are impossible to quantify reliably. It also may be argued that sequestration will diminish efforts towards energy efficiency and renewables.

• fusion is excluded because it does not work and would produce radioactive wastes.

The challenge is to construct scenarios that do not use these options.

Currently, hydrogen is not included in any scenario. This is primarily because of the low overall efficiency of producing hydrogen from electricity or gas and then converting it into motive power or heat: it wastes more primary fossil or renewable energy than using electricity as a vector. In the stationary sectors, it is better to use electricity, renewable and fossil fuels directly. In surface transport vehicles, an increasing fraction of demand can be met with electricity in hybrid electric/fossil fuelled vehicles. Hydrogen as a fuel for aircraft is a distant prospect. If the production and utilisation efficiency of hydrogen improve, or other difficulties, such as electric vehicle refuelling are insurmountable, then hydrogen would be reviewed.


Scenarios

With these classes of options and exceptions, the aim is to show that commonly agreed social, environmental and economic objectives can be achieved with low risk.

Five scenarios combining the five classes of policy option in different ways have been simulated. Proceeding from scenario 1 to 5 results in decreased emissions and use of technologies or fuels that have irreversible impacts.

1. Base/Kyoto: base scenario2. Carbon15: medium levels of technical change3. Behaviour: behavioural change only4. Tech High: high levels of technical change5. Tech Beh: technical and behavioural change

The scenarios presented here are preliminary and for discussion because:• recent historic data were not available at the time of scenario development• many technical and economic aspects of the scenarios need a thorough review


The energy system: demand and supply options

PRIMARY ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT

ENERGY DEMAND ENERGY CONVERSION PRIMARY ENERGY

Finite energyFossil

Income energy

Finite energy

Fission

Geothermal

Sun

Moon

GasOil

Coal

Heat

Kinetic

Heat

Electricity

Kinetic

Light

Chemical

Cool

Generator

Waste heat

Heat pump

Chemical

Heater

Nuclear

Transport

Waste heat

ENVIRONMENTAL HEAT

Tidal

Wave

Wind

HydroHeat

Biomass

LightDomestic

Services

Industry

Heat engine

Impact Impact

Fusion

Motor

Fuel cell E

Energy demands and sources can be linked in many ways. The appropriate linkage depends on a complex of their distribution in space and time, and the economics of the technologies used.


Integrated planning

Energy planning should be integrated across all segments of demand and supply. If this is not done, the system may be technically dysfunctional or economically suboptimal. Energy supply requirements are dependent on the sizes and variations in demands, and this depends on future social patterns and demand management. For example:

• In 2040, what will electricity demand be at 4 am? If it is small, how will it affect the economics of supply options with large inflexible units, such as nuclear power?

• The output from CHP plants depends on how much heat they provide, so the contribution of micro-CHP in houses to electricity supply depends on the levels of insulation in dwellings.

• Solar collection systems produce most energy at noon, and in the summer. The greater the capacity of these systems, the greater the need for flexible back-up supplies and storage for when solar input is low.

• The scope for electric vehicles depends on demand details such as average trip length. Electric vehicles will add to electricity demand, but they reduce the need for scarce liquid fuels and add to electricity storage capacity which aids renewable integration.

• Electricity supply systems with a large renewable component require flexible demand management, storage, electricity trade and back-up generation; large coal or nuclear stations do not fit well into such systems because their output cannot easily be varied over short time periods.

• The amount of liquid biofuels that might available for air transport depends on how much biomass can be supplied, and demands on it for other uses, such as road transport.

• Is it better to burn biomass in CHP plants and produce electricity for electric vehicles, or inefficiently convert it to biofuels for use in conventional engines?


Models used for constructing scenarios

Some description and sample outputs are presented for the following models:

• SEEScen: Society, Energy and Environment Scenario model used for basic national energy scenarios across all sectors

• EleServe : Electricity system model used to study detailed operation of electricity system

• EST Energy Space Time model used to illustrate issues concerning time varying demands and renewable sources at geographically distant locations

• InterEnergy Energy trade model used to study potential for international exchanges of energy to reduce costs and facilitate the integration of renewable energy

More on the models may be found at:http://www.sencouk.co.uk/Energy/Energy.htm

http://www.sencouk.co.uk/Energy/Energy.htm


Technical basis: SEEScen: Society, Energy, Environment Scenario model

SEEScen is applicable to any large country having IEA energy statistics

SEEScen calculates energy flows in the demand and supply sectors, and the microeconomic costs of demand management and energy conversion technologies and fuels

SEEScen is a national energy model that does not address detailed issues in any demand or supply sector.

Method• Simulates system over years, or

hours given assumptions about the four classes of policy option

• Optimisation under development

HISTORY

FUTURE

COSTS

INPUTS / ASSUMPTIONS

IMPACTSENERGY

IEA dataEnergyPopulation, GDP

Other dataClimate, insulation...

Delivered fuel

End use fuel mix

End use efficiency

Delivered fuel by end use

Useful energy

Socioeconomic

Useful energy

Delivered energy

Lifestyle change

Demand

End use fuel mix

End use efficiency

Conversion

Primary energy

Supply efficiency

Emissions

Capital

Running Distribution losses

Supply mix

Trade

Conversion


Energy services and demand driversDemands for energy services are determined by human

needs, these include• food• comfort, hygiene, health• culture

Important drivers of demand include:• Population increases• Households increase faster because of smaller

households• Wealth, but energy consumption and impacts

depend on choices of expenditure on goods and services which are somewhat arbitrary

The drivers are assumed to be the same in all scenarios.

The above drivers are simply accounted for in the model, but others are not, for example:

• Population ageing, which will result in increases and decreases of different demands

• Changes in employment• Environmental awareness• Economic restructuring

More on consumption at:http://www.sencouk.co.uk/Consumption/Consumption.htm

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GBR: TechLifestyle: Population

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http://www.sencouk.co.uk/Consumption/Consumption.htm

http://www.sencouk.co.uk/Consumption/Consumption.htm


Energy demand: food

Food consumption increases with population. Therefore:• More biowaste for energy supply• Less land for energy crops, depending on import fraction• Land and energy use for food depends on food trade and factors such as the fraction of meat in the diet

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GBR: TechHigh: Food


Future demand: general considerationsPredicting the activities that drive the demands for energy is fundamentally important, but uncertain, not least because

activities are partially subject to policy.

• Some demands may stabilise or decrease, for example:– commuting travel as the population ages and telecommunications develop– space heating as maximum comfort temperature levels are achieved

• Demands may increase because of the extension of current activities:– heating might extend to conservatories, patios, swimming pools– air conditioning may become more widespread– cars might become heavier and more powerful– as the population enjoys more wealth and a longer retirement, more leisure travel might ensue

• Or because new activities are invented, these being difficult to predict:– new ways of using energy might arise; witness home computers, cinemas, mass air travel in the past; the

future we may see space tourism

Basic activity levels are assumed to be the same in all scenarios, although in reality they are scenario dependent. For example, many activities are influenced by scenario dependent fuel prices - the purchase and use of cars, air travel, home heating.

Furthermore, energy consumption in the services sector and industrial sectors are themselves dependent on basic energy service demands. For example: energy consumption for administering public transport or aviation is dependent on the demands for those services; the energy consumed in the iron and steel or vehicle manufacturing industry depends on how many cars are made, which is scenario dependent; the energy consumption of manufacturing industry depends on how much loft insulation there is houses. The effects of energy demands on economic structure and its energy consumption are not considered here. (This is rarely analysed in energy scenarios because the effects of these structural changes may be relatively small; and it is difficult to calculate them.)


Future demand: activity projectionsIn these scenarios, the activity growth in all sectors is assumed to follow from population, household and wealth

drivers. The activity projections are shown in the chart. The outstanding growth is in international aviation, a service the UK mainly exports.

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GBR: TechBeh: Activity


Domestic sector

The main options exercised:

• Clothing, heating system control and thermostat setting• High levels of insulation and ventilation control • Efficient lights and appliances• Solar water heating, micro gas CHP and electric heat pumps are the main supply options• Zoned heating and clothing to reduce average house temperature

Note that solar electricity production (e.g photovoltaic) is included under central supply, even though much of it would be installed at end users’ premises.


Comfort temperature, clothing and activityAppropriate clothing reduces energy demand and emissions. A slight improvement in clothing could reduce

building temperatures. A degree reduction in average building temperature could reduce space heating needs by about 10%.

Activity & Metabolic Rate (W/m2)

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Clothing level


Building useBetter control heating systems in terms of time control and zoning of heating can reduce average internal

temperature and energy use.

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Amb. Temp

Tt :Sitting

Tt :Kitchen

Tt :Bedrooms

Tr :Sitting

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Tr :Bedrooms


Domestic sector: house heat loss factorsImplementation of space heat demand management (insulation, ventilation control) depends on housing needs

and stock types, replacement rates, and applicability of technologies. Insulation of the building envelope and ventilation control can reduce house heat losses to minimal levels.

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GBR: TechBeh: W/oC : Elements


House: monthly space heating and cooling loads

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United Kingdom 2005 : TechLifestyle Scenario : House temperatures and heat flows

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United Kingdom 2050 : TechLifestyle Scenario : House temperatures and heat flows

Energy conservation technologies have these effects:

• Space heating demand is greatly reduced by insulation and other measures

• The potential growth in air conditioning depends on detailed house design and temperature control

• There is less seasonal variation in total heat demand


Domestic sector: useful energy services per household• Space heating reduced, but not comfort• Other demands eventually grow because of basic drivers• Water heating becomes a large fraction of total, demand management requires further analysis

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GBR: TechBeh: Residential : Useful


Domestic sector: electricity useElectricity demand is reduced because of more efficient appliances, including heat pumps for space heating.

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GBR: TechBeh: Residential : Electricity


End use sectors: energy delivered to services sector

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GBR: TechBeh: Services : fuel by sector

More commentary to follow.


End use sectors: energy delivered to industry sector

More commentary to follow.

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GBR: TechBeh: Industry : fuel by sector


Transport

Options exercised:• Demand management, especially in aviation sector• Reduction in car power and top speed• Increase in vehicle efficiency

– light, low drag body– improved motor efficiency

• Implentation of speed limits• Shift to modes that use less energy per passenger or freight carried:

– passengers from car to bus and train– freight from truck to train and ship

• Increased load factor in the aviation sector• Some penetration of vehicles using alternative fuels:

– electricity for car and vans– biofuels principally for longer haul trucks and aircraft


Passenger transport: carbon emission by purpose

Education2%Shopping

10%Medical (pers)

1%

Other personal5%

Eat/drink2%

To friends15%

Social2%

Entertain4%

Sport (do)2%

Holiday 4%

Day trip4%

Other0%

Escort6%

Carbon emissionby purpose

To work 30%

In work 13%

Commuting and travel in work account for 40-50% of emissions


Passenger transport: carbon emission purpose and by trip length

Stage length (km)

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% Non work% in work


Passenger transport use by mode trip length

Stage Length (km)

Car

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(Mt)

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Car/van T axi Motorcycle Bus

Coach Underground T rain Other public

Short distance car trips account for bulk of emissions.


Passenger transport : potential effect of teleworking

Minimum stage length of te leworking substitution (miles)

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Reduction on total carbon emissionfrom UK passenger transport

Reduction on emissionof commuting

Reduction on emissionof in work travel


Passenger transport: carbon emission by mode of travel

Load factor

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Passenger transport: mode of travel by distance

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Bus Coach Underground BR Other public1985/6


Passenger transport: carbon emission by car performance

grammes Carbon per km

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Car carbon emissions are strongly related to top speed, acceleration and weight. Most cars sold can exceed the maximum legal speed limit by a large margin. Switching to small cars would reduce car carbon emissions by about 40% in ten years. Switching to micro cars and the best liquid fuelled cars would reduce emissions by about 90% in the longer term.


Passenger transport: Risk of injury to car drivers involved in accidents between two cars

Cars that are big CO2 emitters are most dangerous because of their weight, and because they are usually driven faster. In a collision between a small and a large car, the occupants of the small car are much more likely to be injured or killed. The most benign road users (small cars, cyclists, pedestrians) are penalised by the least benign.

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Transport: road speed and CO2 emission

Energy use and carbon emissions increase strongly with speed. Curves for other pollutants generally similar, because emission strongly related to fuel consumption.

These curves are only applicable to current internal combustion vehicles. Characteristics of future vehicles (e.g. urban internal combustion and electric powered) would be different. Minimum emission would probably be at a lower speed, and the fuel consumption and emissions at low speeds would not show the same increase.

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Car (D,> 2.0 l, EURO IV) Car (P,< 1.4 l, EURO IV)Car (P,1.4 - 2.0 l, EURO IV) Car (P,> 2.0 l, EURO IV)HGV (D,Rigid, EURO IV) HGV (D,Artic, EURO IV)Bus (D,0, EURO IV) Van (D,medium, EURO IV)Van (D,large, EURO IV) Mcycle (P,250-750cc 4-s, pre)Mcycle (P,>750cc 4-s, pre)

Motorway

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Low speed emission

Average conceals start/ stop congestion

And car design dependent


Transport: road speed and PM emission

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Motorway

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Transport: road speed and NOx emission

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Motorway

Fraction of minimum NOx g/km


Transport: road speeds

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A large fraction (40-50%) of vehicles break the speed limits on all road types. This law-breaking increases carbon and other emissions, and death and injury due to accident. Enforcing the existing limits, and reducing them, would significantly reduce emissions and injury.


Transport: aviation

Aviation is a special sector because:• There is no near physical limit to growth as for land transport• It has the most rapid growth in demand of any major sector• Its emissions have particular impacts because of altitude• Aircraft are already relatively energy efficient

For these reasons, aviation is projected to become a dominant cause of global warming over the next few decades. The UK is a large exporter of aviation services, and fuelling this export will become perhaps the major problem in UK energy policy. Currently there is no proven alternative to liquid fuels for aircraft.

Most aviation is international with special legal provisions, and so aviation (and shipping) can not be analysed in isolation from other countries.

Aviation is discussed in detail in reports that may be downloaded at:http://www.sencouk.co.uk/Transport/Air/Aviation.htm

http://www.sencouk.co.uk/Transport/Air/Aviation.htm


Demand management

Freight

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AirframeEngine

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Load factor

Altitude

Speed

Route length

CONTROL MEASURES

Aviation: control measures

Aviation emission control measures can be classed under demand management, technology and operations.


Aviation: effects of technical and operational measures

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CurrentDecreased design cruise speed

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Improve existingturbofan engine

Propfan

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Behavioural measures (other than reducing basic demand) such as increasing aircraft load factor and reducing cruising speed are as important as technological improvement. These measures can be implemented faster than technological change, as the average aircraft operating life is about 30 years.


Aviation scenarios

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Aviation emissions can only be stabilised if all technical and operational measures are driven to the maximum, and the demand growth rate is cut by half. To reduce aviation emissions by 60% would require further demand reduction.


Transport: passenger demand by mode and vehicle typeDemand depends on complex of factors: demographics, wealth, land use patterns, employment, leisure travel.

National surface demand is limited by time and space, but aviation is not so limited by these factors.

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Nat:Pas:Bike

GBR: TechBeh: Passenger : Load distance


Transport: freight demand by mode and vehicle typeThe scope for load distance reduction through logistics and local production is not assessed. International

freight is estimated.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

90019

90

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Gtk

m

Int:Fre:Plane

Int:Fre:Ship

Nat:Fre:Plane

Nat:Fre:Ship

Nat:Fre:Pipe

Nat:Fre:Rail

Nat:Fre:LDV

Nat:Fre:Truck

GBR: TechBeh: Freight : Load distance


Transport, national: passenger modeA shift from car to fuel efficient bus and train for commuting and longer journeys is assumed. The scope for

modal shift from air to surface transport is very limited without the development of alternative long distance transport technologies.

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.219

90

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

%

Nat:Pas:Ship

Nat:Pas:Plane

Nat:Pas:Rail

Nat:Pas:Bus

Nat:Pas:Car

Nat:Pas:MCycle

Nat:Pas:Bike

GBR: TechBeh: National : Passenger : Mode


Transport: national : freight modeShift from truck to rail. Currently, no assumed shift to inland and coastal shipping.

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.219

90

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

%

Nat:Fre:Plane

Nat:Fre:Ship

Nat:Fre:Pipe

Nat:Fre:Rail

Nat:Fre:LDV

Nat:Fre:Truck

GBR: TechBeh: National : Freight : Mode


Transport: passenger vehicle load factor• Load factors of vehicles, especially aircraft, assumed to increase through logistical change.• Vehicle load capacities (passengers/vehicle; tonnes/truck) assumed unchanged.

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.219

90

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

%

Nat:Pas:Bike

Nat:Pas:MCycle

Nat:Pas:Car

Nat:Pas:Bus

Nat:Pas:Rail

Nat:Pas:Plane

Nat:Pas:Ship

Int:Pas:Ship

Int:Pas:Plane

GBR: TechBeh: Passenger : Load factor


Further analysis: electric vehiclesElectric (EV) or hybrid electric/liquid fuelled (HELV) vehicles are a key option for the future

because liquid (and gaseous) fossil fuels emit carbon, will become more scarce and expensive and are technically difficult to replace in transport, especially in aircraft.

Electric vehicles such as trams or trolley-buses draw energy whenever required but they are restricted to routes with power provided by rails or overhead wires. Presently there are no economic and practical means for providing power in a more flexible way to cars, consequently electric cars have to store energy in batteries. The performance in terms of the range and speed of EVs and HELVs is improving steadily such that EVs can meet large fraction of typical car duties; the range of many current electric cars is 100-200 miles. A major difficulty with EVs is recharging them. At present, car mounted photovoltaic collectors are too expensive and would provide inadequate energy, particularly in winter, although they may eventually provide some of the energy required.

Because of these problems it may be envisaged that HELVs will first supplant liquid fuelled vehicles, with an increasing fraction of electric fuelling as technologies improve.

Hydrogen is much discussed as a transport fuel, but the overall efficiency from renewable electricity to motive power via hydrogen is perhaps 50%, whereas via a battery it might be 70%. For this reason, it is not currently included as an option. If the efficiency difference were narrowed, and the refuelling and range problems of EVs are too constraining, then hydrogen should be considered further.


Transport: passenger vehicle distance

A large reduction in road traffic reduces congestion which gives benefits of less energy, pollution and travel time.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

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2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Gv.

km

Int:Pas:Plane_LB

Int:Pas:Plane_KInt:Pas:Ship_D

Nat:Pas:Ship_DNat:Pas:Plane_K

Nat:Pas:Rail_E

Nat:Pas:Rail_LBNat:Pas:Rail_D

Nat:Pas:Bus_E

Nat:Pas:Bus_H2Nat:Pas:Bus_CNG

Nat:Pas:Bus_LBNat:Pas:Bus_D

Nat:Pas:Car_E

Nat:Pas:Car_H2Nat:Pas:Car_LB

Nat:Pas:Car_LPG

Nat:Pas:Car_DNat:Pas:Car_G

Nat:Pas:MCyc_GNat:Pas:Bike_S

GBR: TechBeh: Passenger : Vehicle distance


Transport: freight vehicle distance

Some growth in freight vehicle distance. Vehicle capacities and load factors important assumptions

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

14019

90

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Gv.

km

Int:Fre:Plane_K

Int:Fre:Ship_LB

Int:Fre:Ship_D

Nat:Fre:Pipe_E

Nat:Fre:Ship_D

Nat:Fre:Plane_K

Nat:Fre:Rail_E

Nat:Fre:Rail_D

Nat:Fre:Truck_LB

Nat:Fre:Truck_D

Nat:Fre:LDV_E

Nat:Fre:LDV_H2

Nat:Fre:LDV_LB

Nat:Fre:LDV_D

Nat:Fre:LDV_G

GBR: TechBeh: Freight : Vehicle distance


Transport: passenger: fuel per passenger kmReductions in fuel use because of technical improvement, better load factors, lower speeds, and less

congestion.

0

2

4

6

8

10

1219

90

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

MJf

uel/p

km

Nat:Pas:Bike_SNat:Pas:MCyc_GNat:Pas:Car_G

Nat:Pas:Car_DNat:Pas:Car_LPG

Nat:Pas:Car_LB

Nat:Pas:Car_H2Nat:Pas:Car_ENat:Pas:Bus_DNat:Pas:Bus_LBNat:Pas:Bus_CNG

Nat:Pas:Bus_H2Nat:Pas:Bus_E

Nat:Pas:Rail_DNat:Pas:Rail_LBNat:Pas:Rail_ENat:Pas:Plane_K

Nat:Pas:Ship_DInt:Pas:Ship_DInt:Pas:Plane_KInt:Pas:Plane_LB

GBR: TechBeh: Passenger : Fuel per load km


Transport: passenger: delivered energy

Future passenger energy use dominated by international air travel.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PJ

Int:Pas:Plane_LB

Int:Pas:Plane_KInt:Pas:Ship_D

Nat:Pas:Ship_DNat:Pas:Plane_K

Nat:Pas:Rail_E

Nat:Pas:Rail_LBNat:Pas:Rail_D

Nat:Pas:Bus_ENat:Pas:Bus_H2Nat:Pas:Bus_CNG

Nat:Pas:Bus_LBNat:Pas:Bus_D

Nat:Pas:Car_ENat:Pas:Car_H2Nat:Pas:Car_LBNat:Pas:Car_LPG

Nat:Pas:Car_DNat:Pas:Car_GNat:Pas:MCyc_GNat:Pas:Bike_S

GBR: TechBeh: Passenger : Delivered


Transport: freight delivered energy

Freight energy use is dominated by trucks. The potential for a further shift to rail needs investigation.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

80019

90

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PJ

Int:Fre:Plane_K

Int:Fre:Ship_LB

Int:Fre:Ship_D

Nat:Fre:Pipe_E

Nat:Fre:Ship_D

Nat:Fre:Plane_K

Nat:Fre:Rail_E

Nat:Fre:Rail_D

Nat:Fre:Truck_LB

Nat:Fre:Truck_D

Nat:Fre:LDV_E

Nat:Fre:LDV_H2

Nat:Fre:LDV_LB

Nat:Fre:LDV_D

Nat:Fre:LDV_G

GBR: TechBeh: Freight : Delivered


End use sectors: useful energy services

• Useful energy supply and services increase• Growth in all end uses except space heating

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1990

1995

2000

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2035

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2050

PJ

Cool

Space AC

Space H

Water H

Cooking

H<12-C

H>120C

Light

Proc W

El equip

Mot W

GBR: TechBeh: Energy : Useful


Energy conversion: efficienciesPreliminary graph showing efficiencies of energy conversion. Efficiencies greater than one signify heat pumps.

Declining efficiencies are where the cogeneration heat fraction falls, and the electricity fraction increases

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.419

90

1995

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2050

Effi

cien

cy

Mot WProc WH>120CH<12-CCookingWater HSpace HG_L_S_Auto:Pipe (DH)_HHG_BioL_BioS_BioG_FosL_FosS_FosG_FosL_FosS_FosG_L_S_G_FosL_FosS_FosG_L_S_G_FosL_FosS_FosTrans_EEPump_EE_WindE_TideE_WaveH_SolarH_GeotheE_HydroS_MunRefG_BioL_BioS_BioN_NucG_FosL_FueOilS_FosG_BioL_BioS_BioL_GasDieL_MotGasL_AviKjeL_FueOilL_FosNuc_NNG_FosL_CruOilS_FosS_Bio

GBR: TechBeh: Efficiency


End use sectors: energy delivered by sector

Delivered energy decreases because of demand management and energy conversion efficiency gains.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

700019

90

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

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2030

2035

2040

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2050

PJ

Sea:Int

Air: Int

Other inland

Air: Dom

Rail

Road: Freight

Road: Pass

Residential

Services

other

Agriculture

Light

Met&Min

Chemical

Iron and steel

GBR: TechBeh: Delivered : by sector


End use sectors: energy delivered by fuel

Reduction in fossil fuel use through efficiency and shift to alternatives.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

800019

90

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PJ

H_Solar

S_Bio

L_Bio

G_Bio

S_CHP

L_CHP

G_CHP

H_Pipe (DH)

E_Ele

S_Fos

L_AviKje

L_MotGas

L_GasDie

L_LiqPeG

L_Fos

G_Fos

GBR: TechLifestyle: Delivered : by fuel


Energy supply: electricity

Options exercised:

• Phase out of nuclear and coal generation– some fossil (coal, oil, gas) capacity may be retained for security

• Extensive installation of CHP, mainly gas, in all sectors• Utilisation of biomass waste and biomass crops• Large scale introduction of renewable electricity

– wind, solar, tidal, wave

Electricity supply in the scenarios requires more analysis of demand and supply technicalities and economics, particularly:

• future technology costs, particularly of solar-electric systems such as photovoltaic• demand characteristics including load management and storage• renewable supply mix and integration


Energy supply: electricity : generating capacityCapacity increases because renewables (especially solar) and CHP have low capacity factors. Some fossil

capacity would perhaps be retained for back-up and security.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1990

1995

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2005

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2035

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2050

GW

e

S_Fos

L_FueOilG_Fos

N_NucS_Bio

L_Bio

G_BioS_MunRef

E_HydroH_GeotheH_Solar

E_WaveE_Tide

E_Wind

Pump_ES_Fos

L_FosG_FosS_

L_G_

GBR: TechBeh: Electricity : Capacity : GWe


Electricity: generationFinite fuelled electricity-only generation replaced by renewables and CHP. Proportion of fossil back-up

generation depends on complex of factors not analysed with SEEScen.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

140019

90

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PJe

S_Fos

L_FueOilG_Fos

N_NucS_Bio

L_Bio

G_BioS_MunRefE_Hydro

H_GeotheH_SolarE_WaveE_Tide

E_WindPump_ES_Fos

L_FosG_FosS_

L_G_

GBR: TechBeh: Electricity : Output : PJe


Electricity: generation costs (excluding distribution)Because of increased CHP and renewables, the fraction of capital and operation and maintenance costs

increases and the fraction of fuel costs decreases

0

2

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6

8

10

12

14

16

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€/G

J

CapPerYr

OMTotal

FuInCost

GBR: TechBeh: Generation unit cost


Electricity: scenario generation costs (excluding distribution)

Relative generation costs depend critically on future fuel prices, but in these scenarios the larger demand scenarios have higher electricity costs.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990

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€/G

J

Base/Kyoto

Behaviour

Carbon15

TechHigh

TechBeh

GBR: Scenarios: Generation unit cost


Energy: primary supply• Total primary energy consumption falls, and then increases• Fraction of renewable energy increases, then falls

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PJ

H_Solar

H_Geothe

E_Hydro

E_Wave

E_Tide

E_Wind

S_MunRef

Biomass

Nuclear

Solid

Liquid

Gas

GBR: TechBeh: Primary


Fuel extraction• Extraction of oil and gas tails off as reserves are depleted• Biomass extraction increases

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

800019

90

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

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2035

2040

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2050

PJc

S_Bio

S_Fos

L_CruOil

G_Fos

GBR: TechBeh: Fuel extraction : Output


Fuel reserves• Oil and gas reserves effectively consumed• Large coal reserves available for strategic security

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

18000019

90

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

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2040

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2050

PJ

Nuclear

Coal

Petroleum

Natural gas

GBR: TechBeh: Reserves


Energy tradeNuclear fuel imports decline; gas and oil imports increase and stabilise; some electricity export.

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

250019

90

1995

2000

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2050

PJ

Gas

Liquid

Solid

Nuclear

Elec

GBR: TechBeh: Trade


Energy flow charts

The flow charts show basic flows in 1990 and 2050, and an animation of 1990-2050. The central part of the charts illustrate the relative magnitude of the energy flows through the UK energy system. The top section shows carbon dioxide emissions at each stage. The bottom section shows energy wasted and discharged to the environment.

Please note that the scale of these charts varies.

Observations:• Energy services:

– space heating decreases– other demands increase, especially motive power and transport

• Fuel supply– increase in efficiency (CHP)– increase in renewable heating, biomass and electricity– imports of gas and oil are required– electricity is exported


UK Energy flow chart: 1990SENCO GBR : TechBeh : Y1990

Trade Extraction Fuel processing Electricity and heat Delivered Sectors Useful energyEnvironment

Waste energy

Trd_E

Trd_N

Ext_G

Ext_S

Ext_L

Solid

Nuclear

Refinery Liq

Solid

Nuclear

L_FueOil

ElOnly

Gas

Solid

Elec

Liq

Biomass Food

Res_G_

Res_S_Res_E_Res_L_

Ser_G_Ser_S_Ser_E_Ser_L_

Ind_G_

Ind_S_Ind_E_

Ind_L_

Oth_G_Oth_L_

Tra(nat) E

Tra(nat) L

Tra(int) L

Mot W

Proc W

H>120C

H<12-C

Water H

Space H

Space ACCool

CO2 CO2


UK Energy flow chart: Animation 1990 to 2050


UK Energy flow chart: 2050SENCO GBR : TechBeh : Y2050

Trade Extraction Fuel processing Electricity and heat Delivered Sectors Useful energyEnvironment

Waste energy

Trd_G

Trd_E

Trd_L

Ext_G

Ext_S

Biomass

Solid

Wind

TideWave

Solar

Biowaste

Biomass Biomass proc

Refinery

S_BioL_Bio

Liq

Wind

TideWaveSolar

Waste

CHPDHFuI

ElOnly

Auto

CHPDH_H

Auto_H

Gas

G_CHP

H_Solar

Solid

Elec

Heat

L_CHP

Liq

Biomass Food

Res_G_CHPRes_H_SolarRes_E_

Ser_G_CHPSer_H_SolarSer_E_

Ind_G_Ind_G_CHPInd_H_SolarInd_S_

Ind_E_

Ind_L_Ind_L_CHP

Oth_G_

Tra(nat) ETra(nat) L

Tra(int) L

Mot W

El equipProc WLight

H>120C

H<12-C

Cooking

Water H

Space H

Space ACCool

CO2


Environment

Often, the energy and environment debate concerns itself with routine, relatively easily quantified emissions such as CO2, and ignores the many other impacts of energy demand and supply, even though they may as important economically or socially, if only in the shorter term.

There are particular problems concerning the environmental impacts of energy.• The definition and precision of calculation of many impacts are poor for technical reasons.• Future impacts depend on developments in technology, legislation and other controls.• Some impacts are routine, such as CO2 emission; others, such as a nuclear accident, are not routine and

have probabilities of occurrence and consequences that are impossible to calculate with any certainty.• Some impacts are physical; others, such as the threat of attack on a nuclear facility, are not physical but can

still have impacts.• Some impacts are not directly associated with technical energy processes. For example, in the low emission

scenarios, road traffic injuries and deaths would be reduced through measures such as less car travel and enforced speed limits. There would be further social benefits such as more equal access to transport, and disbenefits such as less car driving.

• The impacts are different in kind: gaseous, liquid, solid, radioactive, biological, visual, land take, etc. There is no objective method to weigh these against each other except through political processes.

SEEScen presently calculates:• Atmospheric emissions of CO2, and of SO2, NOx, PM and CO although these are imprecise• Some other impacts such as the number of aerogenerators and the fraction of land area used for biomass

production


Environment: carbon dioxideNote the historical emission inaccuracy because of data. The TechBeh scenario has a decline in CO2 emission

of about 80%, and then an increase, primarily because of aviation growth.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

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1995

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Mt

Fue:ExtFue:ProEle:GenEle:PumEle:TraHea:PubHea:AutTra(int):Sea:IntTra(int):Air: InTra(nat):Other iTra(nat):Air: DoTra(nat):RailTra(nat):Road: FTra(nat):Road: PRes:ResSer:SerOth:othInd:AgrInd:LigInd:MetInd:CheInd:Iro

GBR: TechBeh: Environment : Air : CO2


Environment: CO2 emission by scenario

There is an eventual upturn in emissions as assumed demand growth overtakes technology and behavioural options.

0

100

200

300

400

500

60019

90

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2030

2035

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Mt

Base/Kyoto

Behaviour

Carbon15

TechHigh

TechBeh

GBR: Scenarios: Environment : Air : CO2


Environment: nitrogen oxides

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

180019

90

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

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2050

kt


GBR: TechBeh: Air : NOx


Environment: particulate matter

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

18019

90

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

kt


GBR: TechBeh: Air : PM10


Economics

In SEEScen, the direct annual costs of fuel, and the annuitised costs of conversion technologies and demand management are calculated. The model does not account for anything unrelated to fuels or technologies, including:

• indirect costs and benefits, such as the economic savings following a shift away from cars leading to reduced health damage because of accidents, toxic air pollution, and the value of reduced travel time

• macroeconomic issues relating to the energy trade imbalance or exposure to fluctuating international fuel prices

Such economic impacts of energy scenarios can be of greater importance than direct costs. For example, the value of traffic related health injury and time lost in congestion is generally much greater than the costs of controlling noxious emissions from vehicles.

International fuel prices are critical to the relative cost effectiveness of measures. It is probable that the UK would follow a ‘low energy emission’ path in parallel with other countries, at least in Europe. In such an international scenario, finite fossil and nuclear fuel prices will be lower than in a higher demand scenario. Thus the implementation of options affects the cost-effectiveness of those options - a circularity:

– the more renewable energy deployed, the cheaper the fossil fuels leading to an increase in the relative cost of renewables

– the more the consumption of fossil and nuclear fuels, the higher the prices for those, leading to an increase in the relative cost of fossil and nuclear energy


International contextFuel availability and price will depend on

global and regional demand levels.SEEScen was used to model the five

scenarios for the four largest energy consumers near the UK: France, Germany, Spain and Italy.

Because the measures exercised are the same, the primary energy consumption of these countries varies in similar ways in the scenarios, although there are differences in detail.

This illustrates how regional energy demand might vary according to policies, and it has consequences for energy prices.

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

1990

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PJ

GBR

ESP

ITA

DEU

FRA

ALL COUNTRIES: Base/Kyoto : Primary

0

5000

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20000

25000

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35000

40000

45000

50000

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2040

2045

2050

PJGBR

ESP

ITA

DEU

FRA

ALL COUNTRIES: TechBeh : Primary


Economics: fuel pricesInternational fuel prices are critical inputs

to the economic analysis of scenarios.

Fundamentally, costs in the long term are determined by the remaining amounts and marginal extraction costs of the reserves of finite fossil and nuclear fuels. Prices depend on costs and future demand-supply markets.

It may be argued that if the UK pursues a ‘low finite energy’ path then it is likely that other countries will be doing the same, at least within Europe.

The top chart shows a ‘high demand’ price projection, the bottom a ‘low demand’ projection.

These merely illustrate possible differences in trends. It may that the relative prices of gas, oil and coal will change.

This requires further analysis.

0

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14

16

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€/G

JG_Fos

L_Fos

L_LiqPeG

L_GasDie

L_MotGas

L_AviKje

L_FueOil

L_CruOil

S_Fos

GBR: TechBeh: Price

0

5

10

15

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30

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€/G

J

G_Fos

L_Fos

L_LiqPeG

L_GasDie

L_MotGas

L_AviKje

L_FueOil

L_CruOil

S_Fos

GBR: Base/Kyoto: Price


Economics: TechBeh scenario annual costs of fuel, conversion and demand management

The annuitised costs of each fuel, technology and demand management option are calculated for each of the end use and supply sectors. In the low demand scenario, the fraction of total cost due to converters (boilers, power stations, etc.) and demand management increases as compared to fuels.

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

14000019

90

1995

2000

2005

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2015

2020

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2030

2035

2040

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2050

M€/

a

Fuel

Conversion

Dem Manage

GBR: TechBeh: Economics : Country


Economics: Base scenario annual costs of fuel, conversion and demand management

In higher energy supply scenarios, the fraction of costs due to fuel increases because renewable energy and CHP constitute smaller fractions. One implication of this, in comparison with a lower demand scenario, is that economic security is degraded because of the sensitivity to prices and availability of imported, globally traded fuels.

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

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180000

200000

1990

1995

2000

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2010

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2020

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2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

M€/

a

Fuel

Conversion

Dem Manage

GBR: Base/Kyoto: Economics : Country


Economics: total cost by scenarioThe more secure, lower impact systems for providing energy services may not have higher costs than high

demand and emission scenarios because more cost effective demand management is taken up. Also, fossil fuel prices will be lower because European/global demand will be lower (the UK will not, or cannot act alone).

0

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GBR: Scenarios: Economics : Country


Economics: energy trade costsThe cost of increased imports of fossil fuels is partially balanced by electricity exports.Note that the costs of imports are positive and exports, negative.

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Economics: scenarios: energy trade total cost balanceThe energy trade cost deficit increases in higher energy consumption scenarios because imports are greater

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GBR: Scenarios: Trade costs


Observations on scenarios: national energyThe scenarios are preliminary and could be improved with more recent data and sectoral analysis. However,

the relative magnitudes of energy flows, emissions and costs are illustrative of the main problems, and possible solutions.

The scenarios show that:• Large reductions in carbon dioxide and other emissions are possible without utilising irreversible

technologies with potential large scale risks - nuclear power and carbon sequestration.• Transport fuel supply is a more difficult problem than fuelling electricity supply or the stationary sectors

which have many potential fuel sources. Transport is the most difficult sector to manage, because:– demand management options are limited as compared to the stationary sector– of growth, especially in aviation– limited efficiency improvement potential as efficiency is already a strong driver in freight transport

and aviation– lack of alternatives to liquid fuels, especially for aviation

• The potential for the direct use of electricity as a transport fuel rather than the inefficient production and use of secondary fuels such as biofuels or hydrogen needs more exploration

In all scenarios, under the assumption of continued growth in energy service demand, emissions increase in the longer term as the effects of known technologies are absorbed. Behavioural options are important, especially if nascent technologies do not become technically and economically feasible. Therefore analysis and speculation on the following might be useful:

– possible future socioeconomic changes and impact on energy service demands– long term technology development


Observations on scenarios: economics and environment

Economics• The total cost of energy services may be less in low emission scenarios because of the cost

effectiveness of demand management and efficiency as compared to supply. This assumes that in the future, as now, the UK energy system is not optimal in economic terms because of market imperfections which lead to inadequate investment in demand management and energy efficiency.

• The more the application of demand management and renewable energy, the less is the UK exposed to international fuel price fluctuations.

• Demand management and renewables reduce the UK balance of payments deficit for energy trade.

Energy use and emissions increase when presumed growth overtakes implementation of current technology options. In the long term, therefore demand management, service and renewable energy technologies will require further implementation. A particular need is to find substitutes for liquid fuelled aircraft for long distance transport.


Observations on scenarios: national and international

The TechBeh scenario has a surplus of electricity; should• less be generated?• the surplus be used to substitute for fossil resources, e.g.

– to make transport fuels even if the process is wasteful?– for heating and other uses not requiring electricity?

• the surplus be exported as trade for other fuels?

It is not possible to develop a robust and economic UK energy strategy for the long term without consideration of international developments, for a number of reasons:

• the UK has transmission linkage with other countries; this is especially important for electricity if renewable sources in the UK meet a large fraction of total demand

• the availability of fuels for import depends on global demand• there are international arrangements that constrain UK policy in terms of demand management and

supply, for example, treaties concerning international aviation and shipping

This leads to system dynamics and the international aspects of energy scenarios.


Energy systems aspects: space and time

SEEScen has a main focus on annual flows, although it can simulate seasonal and hourly flows. Other models are required to analyse issues arising with short term variations in demand and supply, and with the spatial location of demands and supplies.

Questions arising:• Can the demands be met hour by hour using the range of supplies?• What spatial issues might arise? Some aspects of this are explored and illustrated with these models:

• EleServe : Electricity system model for temporal analysis

• EST Energy Space Time model

• InterEnergy Energy trade model


Electricity system: detailed considerationsElectricity demand and supply have to be continuously balanced as there is no storage in the transmission

network, unlike gas. This balancing can be achieved by controlling demand and supply, and by introducing storage on the system (pumped storage) or near the point of use: heat and electricity storage (hot water tanks, storage heaters, vehicle batteries) can be used to store surplus renewable energy when it is available, so that the energy can later be used when needed.

The EleServe Electricity Services model has these components:Electricity demand • disaggregated into segments across sectors and end uses• each segment with

– a temporal profile– load management characteristic

Electricity supply• each renewable source with own temporal profile• heat related generation with its own temporal profile• optional thermal generators characterised by energy costs at full and part load, and for starting upOperational control• load management by moving demands if cost reduced• optional units brought on line to minimise diurnal costs

The following graphs demonstrates the role that load management can play in matching variable demands to electricity supplied by variable renewable and CHP or cogeneration sources.


Electricity : diurnal operation without load management


Electricity : animated diurnal operation with load management


Electricity : diurnal operation with load managementEleServe Scenario: Efficiency + CHP + renewables 2025 Winter day : Summer day SENCO

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Electricity : commentary

The electricity demand-supply simulation :• shows how load management can alter the pattern of demand to better match CHP and renewable

electricity generation. The residual demand to be met by generators utilising fuels such as biomass or fossil fuels, that can alter their output, is less variable and the peak is smaller.

• demonstrates the importance of demand patterns and technologies in strategies for integrating variable electricity sources

• indicates that large fractions of variable sources can be accommodated without substantial back-up capacity

• end use or other local storage could play a significant role, especially if electric vehicles are widely used as in some of the scenarios

Further work is required on:• data defining current and future demand technologies• detailed electricity demand forecasts• the feasibility of integrated control of demand and supply technologies, including the accuracy of prediction

of hourly demands and renewable supplies over time periods of a several hours or days• more refined optimisation


Energy systems in space and time

For temporally variable demand and energy sources, what is the best balance between :• local supply and long distance transmission?• demand management, variable supply, optional or back up generation and system or local

storage?

These questions can be asked over different time scales (hour by hour, by day of week, seasonal) and spatial scales (community, national, international).

The EST and InterTrade models have been developed to illustrate the issues and indicate possible solutions for integrating spatially separate energy demands and sources, each with different temporal characteristics.


UK energy, space and time illustrated with EST


UK energy, space and time illustrated with EST : animated


A wider view of the longer term future

Wealthy countries like the UK can reduce their energy demands and emissions with cost-effective measures implemented in isolation from other counties, and in so doing improve their security. However, at some point it is more practical and cost-effective to consider how the UK can best solve energy and environment problems in concert with other countries.

As global fossil consumption declines because of availability, cost and the need to control climate change, then energy systems will need to be reinforced, extended and integrated over larger spatial scales.

This would be a continuation of the historical development of energy supply that has seen the geographical extension and integration of systems from local through to national and international systems.

The development and operation of these extended systems will have to be more sophisticated than currently. Presently, the bulk of variable demands in rich countries is met with reserves of fossil and nuclear fuels, the output of which can be changed by ‘turning a tap.’ When renewable energy constitutes a large fraction of supply, the matching of demands and supplies is a more complex problem both for planning and constructing a larger scale system, and in operating it.


International electricity : demand

Further connecting the UK system to other countries increases the benefits of diversity, at the cost of transmission.

The first chart shows the pattern of monthly demands for different European countries.

The second chart shows the normalised diurnal demand patterns for some countries. Note that these are all for ‘local’ time; time zone differences would shift the curves and make the differences larger.

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International electricity: supply; monthly hydro output

Hydro will remain the dominant renewable in Europe for some time. It has a marked seasonality in output as shown in the chart; note that hydro output can vary significantly from year to year. Hydro embodies some energy storage and can be used to balance demand and supply; to a degree determined by system design and other factors such as environment.

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Electricity trade

• An extensive continental grid already exists

• The diversity of demand and supply variations increases across geographical regions

• What is the best balance between local and remote supply?

InterEnergy model• Trade of energy over links

of finite capacity• Time varying demands and

supply• Minimise avoidable

marginal cost• Marginal cost curves for

supply generated by model such as EleServe


InterEnergy – animated trade

Animation shows programme seeking minimum cost for one period (hour)


Europe and western Asia – large point sourcesThe environmental impact of energy is a global issue: what is the best strategy for reducing

emissions within a larger region?


WorldThere are global patterns in demands and renewable supplies:• Regular diurnal and seasonal variations in demands, some climate dependent• Regular diurnal and seasonal incomes of solar energy• Predictable tidal energy income


World: a global electricity transmission grid?• Should transmission be global to achieve an optimum balance between supply, transmission and storage?• Which investments are most cost efficient in reducing GHG emission? Should the UK invest in photovoltaic

systems in Africa, rather than the UK? This could be done through the Clean Development Mechanism


Security: preliminary generalities 1

Energy security can be defined as the maintenance of safe, economic energy services for social wellbeing and economic development, without excessive environmental degradation.

A hierarchy of importance for energy services can be constructed:• Core services which it is immediately dangerous to interrupt

– food supply– domestic space heating, lighting– emergency services; health, fire, police

• Intermediate importance. Provision of social services and short-lived essential commodities• Lower importance. Long-lived and inessential commodities

Part of security planning is for these energy services to degrade gracefully to the core.

The various energy supply sources and technologies pose different kinds of insecurity:• renewable sources are, to a degree, variable and/or unpredictable, except for biomass• finite fossil and nuclear fuels suffer volatile increases in prices and ultimate unavailability• some technologies present potentially large risks or irreversibility


Security : preliminary generalities 2

Supply security over different time scales• Gross availability of supply over future years. The main security is to reduce dependence on the imports of

gas, oil and nuclear fuels and electricity through demand management and the development of renewable energy.

• Meeting seasonal and diurnal variations. This mainly causes difficulty with electricity, gas, and renewables except for biomass. Demand management reduces the seasonal variation in demand and thence the supply capacity problem for finite fuels and electricity. Storage and geographical extension of the system alleviates the problem.

Security of economic supply.• Demand management reduces the costs of supply.

– The gross quantities of fuel imports are less, and therefore the marginal and average prices– The reduced variations in demand bring reduced peak demands needs and therefore lower capacity costs

and utilisation of the marginal high cost supplies• The greater the fraction of renewable supply, the less the impact of imported fossil or nuclear fuel price rise• A diverse mix of safe supplies each with small unit size will reduce the risks of a generic technology failure

Security from technology failure or attack. In the UK, the main risk is nuclear power.

Security from irreversible technology risk. In the UK, nuclear power and carbon sequestration

Environment impacts. All energy sources and technologies have impacts, but the main concern here are long term, effectively irreversible, regional and global impacts. The greater the use of demand management and renewable energy, the less fossil and nuclear, the less such large impacts.


Electricity security

Demand management will reduce generation and peak capacity requirements as it :• reduces total demand• reduces the seasonal variation in demand, and thence maximum capacity requirements

It has been illustrated how load management might contribute to the matching of demand with variable supply. This can be further extended with storage, control and interruptible demand.

During the transition to CHP and renewable electricity, supply security measures could be exercised:• Retain some fossil fuel stations as reserves. Currently in the UK, there are these capacities:

– Coal 19 GW large domestic coal reserve– Oil 4.5 GW oil held in strategic reserves– Dual fired 5.6 GW– Gas 25 GW gas availability depends on other gas demands

• Utilisation, if necessary of some end use sector generation. Currently in excess of 7 GW, but these plants are less flexible because they are tied to end use production, services and emergency back-up

• The building of new flexible plant such as gas turbines if large stations are not suitable

Electricity trade with other countries can be used for balancing. There are geographical differences in the hourly variations of demands and renewable supply because of time zones, weather, etc. The strengthening of the link between France and the UK, and creation of links with other countries would enhance this option.


Gas and oil security

The measures to improve oil and gas security are basically the same, diversify fuel sources and store fuels:

• Diversify supply sources– Extension of the gas transmission system– Develop LNG imports

• Increase storage– Enlarge long term gas storage in depleted gas fields– Increase strategic 90 day oil reserve as required by IEA

Uk energy scenarios 2006

Education

Transcript of Uk energy scenarios 2006