UK Economic Calendar

7/31/2019 UK Economic Calendar

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DAVID MORRISONS2011 MARKET FORECAST

Dad MsGFTs CFD Market Strategist

EURO ZONES DEBT ISSUES

CONTINUE IN 2011

2011 could prove to be an extraordinary year or inancial markets. For equities, the

best outcome would be to have a similar year to 2010. However, that would require anumber o serious problems to be successully resolved, or or policymakers to duck out

o making unpopular decisions and, once again, brush t he issues under the carpet. This

is becoming more diicult, as its increasingly apparent we are still struggling with the

allout rom the inancial crisis.

In the last quarter o 2010, the euro zones sovereign debt issues were a major ocus

or investors. These are likely to remain centre-stage as the solvency o many European

banks is increasingly questioned. While there appear to be unds available rom the

European Financial Stability Facility to rescue the smaller eurozone members, such

as Greece, Ireland and Portugal, there is danger o a sharp political backlash. German

taxpayers are already urious at being orced to bail out their weaker (and proligate)

neighbours, and they are likely to revolt should rising tensions spread to Spain.

Continued on next page

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THE IMPACT OF THE FEDSQUANTITATIVE EASING PROGRAMME

Turning to the US, the Federal Reserves latest quantitative easing programme

(QE2) is due to end in June. The central bank has been strongly criticised or thisintervention, both at home and abroad. Without a rise in inlation and a all in

unemployment by the end o the irst quarter, QE2 will be deemed a ailure. This

would make it extremely diicult or the Fed to justiy extending the programme.

There is another danger. I the Fed is successul in boosting inlationary

expectations, then we can expect a rise in bond yields. At this stage, the central

bank would need to reduce its balance sheet by selling Treasuries and sucking

surplus dollars out o the inancial system. But, it will be selling into a market

where everyone else wants to sell as well. Ater all, i inlation is rising, bonds

become an unattractive investment proposition. This could see US Treasuries slump

and yields soar. The eect o higher yields on the ragile US housing market would

be disastrous.

So the Fed is walking a t ightrope, while painully aware that this monetary

experiment has never been tried beore. On top o this, the ho using market

remains in a critical state, with many US homeowners owing more on their

mortgage than their property is worth. The oreclosure mess needs to be resolved,

while allegations o raud swirl around the market or mortgage-backed securities.

No wonder investors are increasingly pouring their capital into the sae havens ogold and silver.

DAVID MORRISONS2011 MARKET FORECAST



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KATHY AND BORIS2011 MARKET FORECAST

Bs ShlssbGFTs Director of Currency Research

Kahy LGFTs Director of Currency Research

RECOVERY OR DOUBLE-DIP

RECESSION IN 2011?

2010 was a roller coaster year in the currency markets, marked by the sovereign debt

crisis in Europe, sluggish economic activity in the US and strong growth in Asia Paciic,which helped to propel the oth er advanced economies orward. As the new year begins,

the global economy will need to rebalance in order to maintain momentum into 2 011.

Thereore, the central question acing currency traders is whether G10 economies

can make the proper adjustments - or i theyll ace the possibility o a double-dip

recession.

Continued on next page



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powerhouse, relying on this sector to generate its growth. Given the sovereign debt

problems around it, the euro zone aces an enormous risk in 2011 i German growth

slows. Germany is the primary source o capital or most o the bailout rescues the EU

engineered in 2010. Without a robust German economy, the monetary union o the

euro zone could ragment as economies like Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain meet

increasingly hostile capital markets and are unable to inance their budgets.

US EMPLOYMENT GROwTH KEY ISSUE

The key issue in the US remains employment growth. The US economy lagged in 2010,

especially as the countrys unemployment rate remained stubbornly close to the 10

percent level. However, US labour conditions showed some improvement at the end o

2010, as job creation turned positive or the irst time in ive months. I job growth picks

up, the US economy, which is highly leveraged to consumer spending, could prove to be

the economic surprise o 2011. The greenback could stage a sustained rally, especially

against the Japanese yen, as US yields begin to rise.

As 2011 begins, each G10 region aces its own unique ch allenges - but China remains the

critical actor in determining growth or Asia, Europe and North America. Although the

worlds ourth largest economy does not even have a ree-loating currency, its impact

on the oreign exchange market remains immense.

CHINAS TIGHTENING MONETARYPOLICY COULD HAVE GLOBALRAMIFICATIONS

The excess liquidity rom the Federal Reserves aggressive monetary policy, which

provided an additional $600 billion o quantitative easing, produced strong

inlationary pressures in China. Chinese ood prices, which make up a large part o

an average consumers budget, skyrocketed by more than 70 percent. This orced

Chinese monetary authorities to tighten policy. The bearish scenario or 2011 is

that by trying to curb inlation, China will be orced to slow down its double-

digit GDP growth. This could have massive negative ramiications throughout the

industrialised world.

The commodity dollar economies are the most vulnerable to such an outcome,

especially Australia. The Australian dollar, which almost hit parity with the

greenback by the end o 2010, could see a major correction i China tightens.

However, i China is able to control inlationary pressures while maintaining its

double-digit growth, the recovery trade should continue into 2011, helping to

support risk currencies.

Chinas status is also important or Europe. Strong demand rom China is crucial

to German economic success in 2011. Europes largest economy is an export

KATHY AND BORIS2011 MARKET FORECAST



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Volatile Market Event Select Markets Closed

JANUARY2011GFT EcoNomic cAlENdAR ALL eventS AccorDing to gMt

AU Consumer Prices (QoQ) 23:30

AU Consumer Prices (YoY) 23:30AU RBA Trimmed Mean (QoQ) 23:30AU RBA Trimmed Mean (YoY) 23:30AU RBA Weighted Median (QoQ) 23:30

AU Producer Price Index (QoQ) 23:30

AU Producer Price Index (YoY)23:30

AU Private Sector Credit MoM% 23:30AU Private Sector Credit YoY% 23:30

JN Industrial Production (MoM) 22:50JN Industrial Production YOY% 22:50

JN Vehicle Production (YoY) 3:00

AU House Price Index QoQ 23:30AU House Price Index YoY 23:30

CA Gross Domestic Product MoM 12:30US Chicago Purchasing Manager 13:45

US Personal Spending 12:30

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FEBRUARY2011


GFT EcoNomic cAlENdAR ALL eventS AccorDing to gMt

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ocToBER2010

US Chicago Purchasing Manager 13:45US Bloomberg FCI Monthly 20:15

CHF and NZD Market Closed



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dEcEmBER2011



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Note: This calendar only provides general inormation and it is not meant to be a trading guide. Dates are subject to change. GFT cannot be held responsible or the eventual inaccuracies that might occur.


GloSSARY

ADP emplym (US)

This measures non-arm private employment in the U.S. labour market. As a payrollservices company that pays 1-in-6 private sector employees every pay period

across a broad range o industries, ADP and its report are widely respected by

traders. This release is oten used to orecast other reports.

B Bk (US)Compiled by the Federal Reserve, this summary compiles the economic issues and

conditions o interest to bankers, businesses and other proessionals in the 12 U.S.

Federal districts. Traders are interested in this report as the Federal Open Market

Committee (FOMC) will use inormation in this report when determining interest

rate changes.

Busss isThis gure reports the total value o inventory held by retailers, wholesalers,

manuacturers and other companies and compares it to previously reported

numbers. The Business Inventories release oten provides an indication o the state

o an economy. Nonetheless, this number should be considered careully. While

rising inventories may be negative in a weak economy, they may also be a positive

sign in a growing economy.

cha S SalsThis report measures and compares the sales perormance o retail chain stores

in the U.S. Traders use this report to gauge other reports, such as consumer

condence.

cha PMi (US)This index usually surveys purchasing managers in a region on business conditions

and the economy; the Chicago PMI surveys managers in Illinois, Indiana and

Michigan. Traders mainly use this report to anticipate the results o the ISM

Manuacturing release. Usually, rising numbers mean the value o the U.S. dollar

may jump.

csu Spd

This calculates the total amount o money spent by the construction industry in aparticular country or region. Construction data usually has an impact on a variety

o statistics that contribute to the whole economy.

csum cdConsumer spending is a major component o a country or regions GDP; naturally,

traders want to be able to gauge how consumers currently eel about the economy.

This report surveys consumers about their nancial situation as well as their ability

to buy and compiles this data in this release.

csum cdThis provides a breakdown o the total value o outstanding credit debt held by

consumers. This gure includes non-mortgage credit that is paid in installments.

Consumer credit is related to consumer condence.

csum PsThis is one o the central measures o ination. Rising prices mean consumers need

to spend more money to purchase basics, like ood, uel, housing, and clothing. This

can have an exponential impact on products as price increases propagate through

the economy. This report measures the average price o products, compares them to

previous reports, and examines actors that may have contributed to their change.

cu Au

Current account is the combined total o a countrys trade balance (goods and services

imported to those exported), income payments (such as salaries or investment

income) and transers (such as taxes or aid). Positive numbers suggest a current

account surplus meaning that capital is staying in or entering the economy. This is

viewed as positive or the currency. Negative numbers suggest that capital is exiting

into the economies o other countries, which is negative or an economy.

You may have looked at the announcements in this calendar and wondered, What

kind o impact does that event have on the market? Thats why we included this

list o announcements and a brie explanation o what they are below.

A-C

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Duabl gds

This totals the value o new purchase orders (P.O.s) placed with manuacturers orgoods made to last more than three years. A alling number usually has a negative

efect on a currency.

emp Sa Suy (US)This survey measures the sentiments o manuacturing executives in New York

state on business conditions and the economy. Usually, rising numbers mean the

value o the U.S. dollar may jump.

emplymThis reports statistics on the number o people in a country or region looking or

work, and/or ling or assistance. Employment is measured diferently by country

or region. Improved or positive employment numbers are positive or any economyand its currency.

emplym cs idx (eci) (US)

This report compiles changes in wages, salaries and employer costs or employee

benets and calculates the change in the cost o labour. Rising or alling numbers

can indicate diferent things, depending on the state o the economy.

Fay ods

When the economy o a country or region is growing, manuacturers are busy and

sell more products. This gure reports the total value o orders placed at actories

and compares that to previously reported numbers. Stronger actory orders are

positive or a currency.

Fd Suy (US)

These surveys rate the sentiments o manuacturing executives in a particular

area on the state o the industry. This calendar reports on ve regions: Chicago,

Dallas, Kansas City, Philadelphia and Richmond. These reports are primarily used to

orecast other gures. Improving numbers in a Fed Survey should exhibit improved

manuacturing conditions, liting the U.S. dollar.

FHFA HPi (Fdal Hus Fa Ay Hus P idx)

(US)This measures the change in the price o single-amily houses. Housing statistics

usually have an impact on a variety o statistics that contribute to the whole economy.

gDP

This combines a countrys private consumption, capital investment, government

expenditures and current account (the diference between exports and imports).

GDP data is extremely important to an economy as it has an impact on the value o a

countrys currency.

Hus Sas

This report looks at the number o newly constructed residential buildings.

Construction data usually has an impact on a variety o statistics that contribute to thewhole economy.

Hus vaas (US)This calculates the number o vacant, single- and multi-amily housing units on the

market. This number is broken down by region, state and metropolitan area. Traders

are interested as it has an impact on a variety o statistics that contribute to the whole

economy.

idusal PduThis measures the production levels o the largest industries (manuacturing, mining

and energy supply) in a country or region. For traders, this provides an indication

o industry activity and GDP. Industrial Production is also used by governments and

central banks to set monetary policies, which also interests traders.

ifaThis measures the change in consumer prices compared to the previous years prices.

Rising prices mean consumers need to spend more money to purchase basics, like

ood, uel, housing, and clothing. This can have an exponential impact on products as

price increases propagate through the economy.

D-F

G-J

GloSSARYGFT EcoNomic cAlENdAR ALL eventS AccorDing to gMt

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imp Ps

This tracks the change in the prices o goods being imported into a country orregion. The value o goods being imported provides an idea o how much capital is

owing out o a particular economy. This ultimately has an impact on other statistics

and the oreign exchange rate o the country/regions currency.

ial clams (U.S.)This reports the number o qualied people who applied or unemployment benets

or the rst-time. An increase in initial claims orecasts complications in the labour

market. As the level o employment is a direct indication o economic health, higher

claims should hurt the U.S. dollar.

iSM Mauau (U.S.)

This rates the sentiments o manuacturing supply managers on employment,orders and other actors contributing to the general state o the industry. It is usually

based on inormation they have collected rom their own organisations. Higher ISM

Manuacturing gures reect improved economic growth and expectations, which

can result in a higher U.S. dollar.

iSM n-Mauau (U.S.)Like the ISM Manuacturing, this statistic rates the sentiments o non-manuacturing

supply managers on employment, orders and other actors contributing to the

general state o the industry. Higher ISM Non-Manuacturing gures reect improved

economic growth and expectations, which can result in a higher U.S. dollar.

iveY PMi (cAD)This measures the sentiments o individual purchasing managers on their

organisations activity in purchasing, prices, deliveries, inventory and employment.

Traders use this survey to gauge the willingness o organisations to spend money

and their condence in the direction o the Canadian economy.

JoLtS (Jb ops ad Lab tu Suy) (U.S.)

This report measures the demand or labour. JOLTS looks at the number o job

openings and creates a snapshot o the U.S. labour market. Most traders are

interested in this as employment can have an impact on other reports.

Lad idas

This orecasts the direction o a country or regions economy by creating a compositeo economic indicators that represent major GDP components. For traders, the

Leading Indicators provides a quick overview o economic conditions. Most traders

are interested in the diference between the reported numbers and those rom the

previous month.

Lh vhl Sals

This calculates the number and value o cars and light trucks (GVW Classes 1-3,

under 14,001 lbs.).Traders are interested in this report as motor vehicle sales have an

impact on retail sales. This is also used to measure the rate o consumer spending and

ultimately calculate GDP.

MusThis release lists key points made during the central bank meeting o a country or

region. Traders are interested in this report as the minutes may provide an indication o

upcoming policy decisions.

nw Hm SalsThis totals the number, sales rate and median prices o newly constructed residential

homes sold in the last month. Weaker home sales indicate strain in the housing market,

which can be bearish or a currency.

nAHB (naal Assa Hm Bulds) Suy

(U.S.)This compiles the sentiments o NAHB members on the state o the housing market

and the construction industry in the U.S. Traders are interested in this as it provides

insight into other reports, such as consumer spending.

nFiB (naal Fda idpd Busss) Suy(U.S.)This surveys small business owners on the current state o the economy and their

uture expectations. Traders are interested in this as it provides insight into reports

such as productivity and employment.

L-N


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n-Fam Paylls

This release compares the output to the number o hours input by workers (outsideo the arming industry). Stronger employment is positive or any economy and its

currency.

Psal im

This release reports the change in the total value o wages, salaries and other

income that consumers receive. Weaker income could hurt consumer spending,

which in turn, has an impact on a countrys income.

PMi MauauThis survey rates the sentiments o manuacturing executives on the state o the

industry in a particular country or region. Improved levels o manuacturing should

boost a nations currency.

PMi SsThis survey rates the sentiments o service-industry executives on current

economic conditions in a particular country or region. As the service industry

comprises a large portion o most economies, improved levels o service sector

activity should boost the nations currency.

Pdu P idx

This reports the change in the cost o materials, uels and electricity and other

items that go into the production o goods. Producer prices are a measure o

ination; stronger ination pressures are bullish while weaker pressures are

bearish.

Pduy ad css

This reports the rate o non-arm, business sector labour productivity and how much it

cost. Traders use this report to gauge ination. Positive productivity numbers bode well

or an economy as corporations are able to produce more without raising employee

wages creating consumer price consistency. Analysts consider the economy to be

expanding when labour productivity numbers increase.

ra Ds

This release reports the decision o a country or regions central bank to change ormaintain the interest rate. This is usually one o the most market moving events or

a currency. Rate hikes tend to be positive or a currency while rate cuts tend to be

negative.

ral Sals

This compiles sales gures rom the retail industry in a particular country or region. As

a primary input to GDP, stronger consumer spending is positive or a currency while

weaker spending is negative.

S&P/cas-Shll Hus P idx (U.S.)

This reports the change in the resale value o residential buildings in select U.S. cities.

Lower prices reect weaker demand, which can be bearish or the dollar.

tic (tasu iaal capal Sysm) DaaThis report collects data rom banks and other nancial organisations on capital

ows in and out o the U.S. This inormation is used in calculating the U.S. Balance

o Payment accounts.

tad BalaThis compares the number o goods and services imported to the number exported

rom a particular country or region. A stronger trade surplus is usually positive or a

currency while a larger trade decit is negative.

U. Mha cdThis surveys consumers on the state o the economy and compiles the results. The

Survey o Consumers at the University o Michigan notes, Economic optimism

promotes consumer condence and a willingness to make large expenditures and

debt commitments, while economic uncertainty breeds pessimism and a desire to

curtail expenditures and rebuild nancial reserves.

P-S

T-Z


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Umplym

This reports statistics related to the number o people in a country or regionlooking or work, and/or ling or assistance. See Employment.

Whlsal tadThis analyses the perormance o the wholesale trade sector based on the changes

in the prices o the products. Consistent changes in wholesale numbers eventually

have an impact on consumer prices; this afects a number o reports, such as retail

sales and consumer spending.


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UK Economic Calendar

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