UIOWA, NCAR, GMAO, NRL Chemical forecasts for Aug 16 th flights 15 Aug 2013 Compiled by Mary Barth...
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Transcript of UIOWA, NCAR, GMAO, NRL Chemical forecasts for Aug 16 th flights 15 Aug 2013 Compiled by Mary Barth...
![Page 1: UIOWA, NCAR, GMAO, NRL Chemical forecasts for Aug 16 th flights 15 Aug 2013 Compiled by Mary Barth and Pablo Saide, Arlindo da Silva, David Peterson, contributions.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032722/56649f3e5503460f94c5f612/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
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UIOWA, NCAR, GMAO, NRL Chemical forecasts for Aug 16th flights
15 Aug 2013Compiled by Mary Barth and Pablo Saide,
Arlindo da Silva, David Peterson, contributions from all groups
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SMOKE
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Bottom Line UpfrontFire Observations:
– Large fires continue to burn in ID, WY, UT and MT– The primary focus is Idaho!
Key Forecasting Points (Friday 8/16): – Fire weather conditions remain favorable for fire growth– Synoptic flow (e.g. at 500 hPa) becomes more northerly, funneling smoke farther
west through the High Plains/Front Range – There may be less smoke near the primary Oklahoma target region!– Morning MCS will impact Oklahoma, producing widespread cloud cover before
18Z
Smoke Predictions (Friday 8/16):– Western fires: High smoke concentrations, higher altitude injections, and large-
scale transport will continue through Friday!– Smoke output will begin to decrease over the weekend!
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NASA NNR AOD composite yesterday
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Fires: locations
FINN today
FLAMBE today
QFED2 today
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WRF-Chem AOD 18 UTC Aug 16th
GEOS5 OC AOD 18 UTC
UIOWA WRF-Chem now running with QFED2, AOD increased
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AOD 18 UTC
Idaho/California fire smoke intercepting the flight track
Models are consistent
CO fire 700mb 18 UTC GEOS5CO fire 700mb 18 UTC
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NAAPS Smoke/Aerosol Forecast
• Large smoke concentrations are forecast from the Idaho source region, arcing to the ENE through MT, then to the SSE across the High Plains/Front Range
• Primary smoke transport region has shifted west!
8/16, 12Z 8/16, 18Z
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Smoke/Aerosol Forecast
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NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON
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PBL tracer air is mostly confined to Mexico at 1800 UTC Friday 18 August
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Flexpart shows Tucson air being lofted to above 12 km
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PBL tracer air is mostly confined to Mexico at 1800 UTC Friday 18 August 11 km
15 km
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DC-8Ex
tincti
onCO
US
Anth
roCO
Fire
sCO
Mex
ico Q_CLOUD
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ER2
Extin
ction
CO U
S An
thro
CO F
ires
CO to
tal
CLOUDS
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LONG-TERM OUTLOOK
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Dust coming in again
AOD 18 UTC
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Smoke for Monday
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Summary
• Plenty of smoke in west• NAM convective outflow is limited• Outlook shows more dust coming from Sahara