UFSP 100 Weather Forecasting Ross A. Lazear. Why is forecasting the weather so difficult? Imagine a...
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Transcript of UFSP 100 Weather Forecasting Ross A. Lazear. Why is forecasting the weather so difficult? Imagine a...
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UFSP 100Weather Forecasting
Ross A. Lazear
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Why is forecasting the weather so difficult?
• Imagine a rotating sphere 8,000 miles in diameter
-Has a bumpy surface-Surrounded by 40-km deep mixture of
different gases whose concentrations vary both spatially and over time
-Heated, along with its gases, by a nuclear reactor 93,000,000 miles away
• Sphere is revolving around the nuclear reactor
-Some locations are heated more during one part of the revolution than others
• Mixture of gases receives inputs from the surface below
-Generally calmly; sometimes violently!
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Why is forecasting the weather so difficult?
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Why is forecasting the weather so difficult?
.....Now, imagine that after observing this gaseous mixture, you are expected to predict its state at multiple locations on the sphere one, two, or more days into the future.
This is essentially the task encountered every day by a weather forecaster!
Adapted from Ryan, 1982, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
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Why the discrepancy?
Forecasting is often extremely challenging!
There are *many* forecasts made available to the public…
*National Weather Service*The Weather Channel*AccuWeather*Wunderground*Your iPhone…etc…
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*Nowcasting (Up to six hours)
*Short/medium range (Up to 7-10 days)
*Long range/intraseasonal/seasonal
*Climate (IPCC)
Types of Forecasts
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*Nowcasting (Up to six hours)
*Short/medium range (Up to 7-10 days)
*Long range/intraseasonal/seasonal
*Climate (IPCC)
Types of Forecasts
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When will the thunderstorm hit?
When will the snow taper?
When will the rain change to snow/sleet/freezing rain?
Nowcasting
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Radar Satellite Soundings
Nowcasting Tools
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Nowcasting Tools
Surface (airport) observations
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*Nowcasting (Up to six hours)
*Short/medium range (Up to 7-10 days)
*Long range/intraseasonal/seasonal
*Climate (IPCC)
Types of Forecasts
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Short/Medium Range Forecasting
Computer models needed!
Models use:-Current surface observations-Upper air observations-Previous forecast
…and then…
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Short/Medium Range Forecasting
From MetEd / UCAR
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Models
GFS - 16 days, global, U.S.A.NAM - 84 hours, N. America, U.S.A.HRRR/Rapid Refresh, 18 hours, U.S.A.ECMWF - 10 days, global, U.K.UKMET - global, U.K.NOGAPS - global, U.S.A. (Navy)JMA - JapanCMC - Canada
WRF - Multiple domains, also run locally at Albany!
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*Nowcasting (Up to six hours)
*Short/medium range (Up to 7-10 days)
*Long range/intraseasonal/seasonal
*Climate (IPCC)
Types of Forecasts
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Long Range/Intraseasonal/Seasonal
Various global “signals” that help meteorologists forecast on longer time scales.
-ENSO (El Niño/La Niña)
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Long Range/Intraseasonal/Seasonal
Also…
-Lots of other complex atmospheric waves in the tropics…
From Dr. Paul Roundy, UAlbany
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Hurricane Sandy, October 2012
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National Hurricane CenterForecast for Hurricane Sandy5 PM EDT October 24, 2012
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Evening of October 25, 2012
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Other forecast challenges: Precipitation type!
Forecast temperature profile for March 19, 2013 winter storm
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ACTUAL temperature profile for March 19, 2013 winter storm...Close call for a heavy sleet storm!
Other forecast challenges: Precipitation type!