UFG Conference London, 2003 - Gazprom Neftir.gazprom-neft.com/.../UFG_one-on-one_conference.pdf ·...
Transcript of UFG Conference London, 2003 - Gazprom Neftir.gazprom-neft.com/.../UFG_one-on-one_conference.pdf ·...
UFG Conference
London, 2003
Sibneft: a Leader in the Oil Industry and on Financial Markets
Industry Leader in 2002
2002 RTS stock market leader: Sibneft showed a 202% return versus 34.1% for RTSI index and about 55% for RTS Oil sector index..
2002 production growth leader: Sibneft moved into 5th place in terms of production and was the absolute leader in terms of productiongrowth – 27.4% versus 7.5% total for the Russian oil industry.
A leading oil products retailer: Sibneft expanded its retail network to more than 1 100 stations, one of the largest chains in Russia.
Leader in corporate activity: Sibneft issued 2 Eurobonds ($400 mln. and $500 mln.), both the largest in Russian private corporate history.
Slavneft acquisition – the largest oil company acquisition in Russian history. With the combined assets, Sibneft becomes a true oil major and moves closer to top three Russian oils in terms of reserves,production, refining and retail.
Stock Market Leader in 2002
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Bond Market Leader in 2002
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Sibneft maturity 2007
Sibneft maturity 2009
Sibneft 2002 Operating and Financial Results Guidance
Full-Year 2002 Operating Results and 2003 Forecasts
Production : 26.344 mln. tons (520,000 b.p.d.), up 27.4% y.o.y. 2003 target - 33.0 mln.tons.
Total drilling was about 860 thousand meters, down slightly from the previous year as more attention was focused on 3D seismic (a record 939 sq. km acquired) as a means to increase reserve quality.
Refinery throughput stable in Omsk at 13.3 mln. tons, up 0.3% y.o.y. An additional 2.55 mln. tons was processed at Moscow Refinery.
Crude export volume exceeded 10.8 mln. tons (48.3% y.o.y. growth and 41.1% of annual production). Oil product exports exceeded 3.5 mln.ton (including exports from Moscow refinery).
Our retail network expanded to more than 1 100 filling stations. Retail oil products sales via distribution subsidiaries reached 2.92 mln. tons (up about 25% y.o.y.).
Preliminary 2002 Financial Results and 2003 Expectations
2003 (est.)20022001
690680534Upstream
925880619CapEx
23520085Downstream
2 175923Total Debt
-19.5%1 0501 305Net income
+ 3.2%1 7751 719EBITDA
+ 40.1%4 8353 449Revenues from oil and gas sales
y.o.y. %20022001(mln.USD)
Preliminary 2002 Revenue Breakdown
535203Siboil resale
4 8353 449Total revenues from oil and gas sales
1 6201 487Oil product domestic
18019Crude domestic
710548Oil product exports
1 7901 191Crude exports
2002 est.2001(mln. USD)
Debt Position at Year-End 2002
3 yearsLibor + 3.25%150 mln. USDRZB, LB Kiel, Texel Finance
200910.75%500 mln. USDEurobond 2
3.5 yearsLibor + 3.5%360 mln. USDCitibank, BNP Paribas, WestLB
3,5 yearsLibor + 3.5%90 mln. USDWestLB
200711%400 mln. USDEurobond 1
Trade finance:
--525 mln.USDOther
5 yearsLibor + 4.1%150 mln. USDCitibank, BNP Paribas, WestLB
maturityrateamount
2.175 bln. USDTotal debt position of that …
2002 Financials Versus Peers (EBITDA in USD/ton)
If we take our preliminary 2002 numbers for Sibneft and consensus 2002 EBITDA expectations for other oil companies, Sibneft leads in terms of EBITDA per ton of crude extracted.
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Sibneft YUKOS Surgut TNK LUKoil Tatneft
Sibneft’s Strategy: Strong Today, Stronger Tomorrow
Long Term Production Growth Targets (mln. tons/year)
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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Conservative Target for New Reserves AcquisitionsPotential Production from "old" fields (assuming natural depletion, but enhanced Recovery Ratio)Total Production Profile
Current Reserve Recovery Ratio = 0.29
by 2010 Reserve Recovery Ratio is expected to grow to 0.33
there is a goal to increase Reserve Recovery Ratio to 0.40
New Acquisitions to compensate for Reserve Depletion
Our Reserves Policy
Sibneft policy is not to drill as much as we can, but to drill effectively.Our exploration drilling is decreasing, but we are substantiallyincreasing 3D seismic, which leads to more effective production wells.
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Total Production, mln.tons (left axis)
3D, square km. (right axis)
Exploration drilling, th.m. (right axis)
Acquisition Policy: How We Value Potential M&A Targets
ReservesReservesReserves
Added value
Added value:FDP, Planning,
TechnologyPeople
Added value
Speculative value (high oil price)
Speculative value (high oil price)
Upside for Sibneft
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we don't buy we buy!
Plus a discount rate of 20% and USD 16.5 per barrel of crude.
Why Russian Reserves? Low Acquisition Costs.
Acquisition Costs, USD/ boe - 5 year average
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Russian Reserve Acquisition costs are still about 10 times lower than the world average
Well Productivity Up, Costs Under Control
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1,751,70 1H 2002 Lifting
Costs = $1,52/ bbl.
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Production Growth in 2002
Production rose on large and medium-size oil fields.New projects like the Meretoyahinskoye oil field in Noyabrsk region and Krapivinskoye field in the Omsk region, plus Sibneft-Yugra, added two million tons to annual production.In 2003 Sibneft plans to add Eti-Purovskoye field on stream. The field is expected to produce up to 2 mln. tons by 2005.
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Refining: Omsk + Moscow
Stable volumes at Omsk Refinery. Total 2002 throughput was 13.26mln. tons. Refining depth has reached 83.2%, the highest in Russia.
Sibneft acquired 37% of the Moscow Refinery in late 2001. In 2002, Sibneft processed an additional 2.55 mln. tons of crude in Moscow.
Moscow refinery characteristics:Refining throughput – 9,8 mln.tons annually
Utilisation ratio – 91%
Depth of refining – 68%
Due to the low direct production costs ($1.52 per barrel in 1H2002), Sibneft has a safe “transportation cushion” that will allow to transport crude directly from Noyabrsk and still to have competitive oil product prices in Moscow.
1300 – 30005500Sales per 1 station (cub.meters/ year)
1000 - 20003850Cars per 1 station
2000 - 4700
Europe
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People per 1 station
Retail Expansion: Moscow and Beyond
By the end of 2002, Sibneft had 20 proprietary petrol stations in Moscow and Moscow region and 26 operating under franchise agreements.By the end of 2002, our share of the Moscow retail market was about 4 – 5%, up from “null” in 2001.
Sibneft’s network of filling stations grew by more than 300 in 2002 to about 1200, including proprietary, franchise and dealers. Currently, Sibneft has 40% to 70% market shares in 11 regions of the Russian Federation. In 2003, we plan to add 130-150 additional filling stations.
TNK16,5%
Slavneft11,8%
Tatneft11,8%
Moscow Fuel Company11,8%
Other28,8%
YUKOS2,4%
BP4,1% LUKoil
8,2%Sibneft4,7%
Slavneft Auction –Valuable New Asset in Our Portfolio
Slavneft Auction Terms and Results
Slavneft – charter capital of 4.7542 billion RUR. of 4.7542 billion voting shares of 0.001 face value.
Stake privatized – 74.95%. Starting value – USD 1.7 billion. Auction price USD 1.86 billion
Current Slavneft Market Capitalization – USD 2.377 billion, assuming USD 0.5 per share.
Current post-auction Slavneft ownership:Sibneft – 49.475%
TNK – 49.475%
Free float – 1.05%
Slavneft Acquisition
Slavneft is 14 –15 mln. tons of production, about 700 mln. tons ABC1 reserves, 12 mln. tons of refining throughput in Russia and 6 mln. tons in Belarus, about 550 filling stations in the European part of Russia.
How Much Did We Pay for Slavneft?
EV/ Reserves EV/ Production
USD/ bbl. USD/ bbl.LUKoil 0.95 25.3 YUKOS 1.36 34.6 Surgut 0.90 18.1 Sibneft 2.12 47.2 TNK 0.83 22.4 Tatneft 0.45 13.7 Sidanco 1.38 25.6
1.14 26.70
Current Slavneft Market Capitalization – USD 2.377 bln., assuming USD 0.5 per share.
That implies 1.21 EV/ Reserves and 29.7 EV/ Production (assuming659 total debt of Slavneft)
Our New Reserves Position (mln. bbl. of proved oil reserves)
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Our New Production Position (mln. tons/year, 2002 figures)
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Our New Refining Position (mln. tons/year, 2002 figures)
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Retail Position (number of filling stations, own and franchising only)
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TNK
Sibneft
Slavneft
Tatneft
Surgut
Building a new Slavneft: same approach – new company
Modern oil company
Portfolio of legacy assets
2002 - 2003 2003 - 2005 2005 - …
Taking control
Restructuring
Breaking through to where Sibneft is
now …
The Future of Slavneft
Currently we are in discussions with TNK on the fate of Slavneft.
Our options are to:
1. Maintain the current ownership structure, with Sibneft managing the assets;
2. Split the assets evenly; or
3. Consolidate Slavneft into Sibneft, in which TNK would receive an equity stake.
Maximizing Returns for Both Companies
RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
PLANNING
TECHNOLOGIESOUTSOURCING OF SERVICES
PEOPLE