Udviklingsøkonomi - grundfag

Lecture 17

Population and fertility

1

World Population

A.D.1 1650 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 1970 1980 1990 2000

250545

728 9061171

1608

2576

3698

4448

5292

6260

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000E

stim

ated

pop

ulat

ion

(mill

ions

)

A.D.1 1650 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 1970 1980 1990 2000

Source: Todary, Economic Development, 1997, p.191

2

Population growthProblem or resource?

Mao, 1949: Of all the things in the world, people are the most precious ... We believe that revolution can change everything, and that before long there will arise a newChina with a big population and a great wealth of products where life will beabundant and culture will flourish. All pessimistic views are utterly groundless.

Mao, 1957: We have this big population. it is a good thing, but of course it also hasits difficulties ... Steps must therefore be taken to keep out population for a longtime at a more stable level, say, at 600 million. A wide campaign of explanation andproper help must be undertaken to achieve this aim.

Brinck, 1991: Ulandene skal igennem en lang og hård periode, hvor de skal lære atsætte tæring efter næring, bl.a. kun få de børn, som den pågældende familie kanforsørge. Jo mere ulandshjælp vi giver, jo mere vil vi trække pinen i langdrag og for-sinke deres opnåelse af samme harmoniske balance, som vi har kæmpet os frem til.

3

4

How fast are we growing?

Average annual population growth during first half on the 1990s Afrika 2,6%

East asia 1,3%

South Asia 1,9%

Europe 0,3%

Fertility is the central parameter

Demographic momentum The consequence of high population growth is a young

population

Population prognoses

2.55.7

9.4

2.55.7

2.55.7

2.55.7

57.2

10.4 10.8

27

17.5

11.2

5.67.73.6

14.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1950 1995 2050 2100 2150

Pop

ulat

ion

in b

illio

n

Medium fertilityHigh fertilityLow fertilityConstant fertility

Source: United Nations Population Division, 1997http://www.undp.org/popin/

Fertility slightly above

two children per woman

Fertility half a child below

replacement level

Fertility half a child above

replacement level

At constant (1990-1995) fertility

levels the world population would

reach 296 billion in 2150

5

The demographic transition in Western Europe

Stage I Stage II Stage III

30

20

10

Birthrate

Deathrate

20001850 1910189018401800 Year

Birt

h/de

ath

rate

per

100

0 in

habi

tant

s

6

The demographic transition in developing countries

Case B

Case B

Case A

Case A

Birthrate

Death rate

0

10

20

30

40

1950 1965 - 1970

Stage I Stage II Stage III

1900 år

Birt

h/de

ath

rate

per

100

0 in

habi

tant

s

50

7

Malthus´ population trap

Harvey Leibenstein, 1957

dP/P

Per capita income (Y/P)

Gro

wth

rat

e in

%

2

4

Y1

A

Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5

B

CCritique:

• Technological development

• Economic growth and population growth are interrelated

• Wrong fertility theory

Developing countries might be caught in a low-income trap due to rapid population growth

8

dY/Y

Fertility rate and per capita income (see also Fig 8.2 i Thirlwall)

Source: World Data, 1997.

Niger

UgandaMali

Sierra LeoneBurundiMalawi

TogoRwanda

ChadTanzania Cameroon

NepalGhana Syria

GuatemalaJordan

CambodiaKenya

HondurasHaiti

TaijikistanNicaragua Paraguay

Zimbabwe

EgyptUzbekistan

El SalvadorTurkmenistan

Vietnam MexicoDominicanColombiaIndonesia Turkey

ChileSri Lanka

Azerbaijan

ChinaThailand

Slovak R.Romania

BelarusRussia

Czech RepublicBulgaria

GreeceUkraine

Croatia

HungaryPoland KoreaMoldova

KazakstanBrazil

ArgentinaLebanonTunisiaVenezuela

PeruEcuadorIndia

MalaysiaMoroccoAlgeriaPhillipines

BangladeshSouth Africa

Bolivia

Papua New GuineaPakistan Cote d'IvoireNigeriaZambia

SenegalMadagascarBenin

Saudi ArabiaMozambique

GuineauBurkino Faso

AngolaEthiopia

Yemen

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1,9 2,1 2,3 2,5 2,7 2,9 3,1 3,3 3,5 3,7 3,9 4,1

Log(GNP per capita) (Atlas method, 1995)

Tot

al f

ertil

ity r

ate

(ch

ildre

n/w

oman

)9

Simple microeconomic fertility theory

h

Desired children

Con

sum

ptio

n of

go

ods

Indifference curve

Budget line

Demand for living children can be written:

Where Cd desired number of living childrenY is incomePC is the cost per child

Px is the price of material goods, and

N are social norms regarding fertility, andB > 1 is the degree of child mortality

overshooting. We expect that:

0Y

Cd

f

0P

C

c

d

e

0P

C

x

d

10

If children are a normal good ???

If children are an ordinary good

( , , , )

_ . .d c x

d

C f Y P P N

Children born C B Exp mortal

11

More on fertility

Fertility and contraceptives – do people get ”desired” number of children?

Trade-off between Quality of children (health,

education) Quantity of children

Population growth: a challenge for development?

AGAINST

• Large dependency burden and poverty

• Capital shallowing

• Affect on public budgets

• Savings

• Pressure on land, natural resources and environment

FOR

• Historically, we developed and populations grew

• Incentives for R&D

• Increasing returns to scale

• Esp. for transport, communication and other”social overhead capital”

• Free land (a few places…)

• Ressource pressure also caused by other factors such as government failure

Different views

Malthus and Neo-Malthusians vs Boserup and the population optimists

Western demographer views vs the catholic church

Personal opinions, social norms, culture, prejudice always influence your view…

12

Befolkningsvækst og økonomisk vækst, 1970-95

Source: World Data, 1997.

KenyaSenegal

GhanaTogo

LesothoChad

Kuwait

Nicaragua

Madagascar

Panama

Sierra LeoneHaiti

Kiribati

Armenida

ZimbabweMalawi

BangladeshMexico

Mali Nepal

Bolivia

Peru MoroccoEgypt

Belize

Rwanda India

Fiji

USA

Barbados

UruguayGreece

Norway

Belgium Austria

Russia

Lesotho

Hong Kong

Thailand

Denmark Hungary

Botswana

Korea, Rep.

China

SingaporeIndonesia

Malaysia

Ireland

Sri Lanka

Iceland

Latvia

GuyanaGeorgia

Jamaica

Italy Portugal

JapanFranceSpain

Sweden

New ZealandTrinidad

CanadaAustralia

ChileArgentina

BahamasEl Salvador

Brazil

TunisiaTurkey

EcuadorIsrael

Costa Rica

SwazilandSenegal

NigerZambia

South Africa

Nigeria

Burundi

CongoParaguayPakistan

SyriaSolomon Islands

Gambia

Honduras

Oman

Cote d'Ivoire

Saudi Arabia

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

Average annual growth in GDP per capita (constant 1987 local)

Ave

rage

ann

ual p

opul

atio

n gr

owth

13

14

Some tentative conclusions

Perhaps we need to distinguish between

High and moderate population growth

If adjustment mechanisms exist , or not

If population densities are already high, or not

If free land exist , or not

Befolkningspolitikker

Specific policies Information campaigns Family planning – reproductive health and contraceptives Incentives / punishments Forced means, forced sterilisation

General policies

Economic growth and development Reduced absolute poverty Better education opportunities (especially for girls and women) Better job opportunities for men and especially for women Better health and nutrition for mothers and infants to reduce child and infant

mortality Better social and economic status (empowerment) of women

Donors emphasise the general policies…

15

16

Topics for discussion

Why do the poor often have such large families?

If prosperity leads to lower fertility, is population control then necessary at all?