UCACN Model Advisory Committee: Kickoff Meeting Dr. William M. Lapenta Director, National Centers...
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Transcript of UCACN Model Advisory Committee: Kickoff Meeting Dr. William M. Lapenta Director, National Centers...
UCACN Model Advisory Committee: Kickoff Meeting
Dr. William M. LapentaDirector, National Centers for Environmental PredictionNOAA/National Weather Service13 April 2015
National Weather Service 2
Outline
Outline
THANKS to all UMAC Members!!!!
Background and Motivation
Production Suite and the Supercomputer
Expectations from the UMAC
National Weather Service
NWS Strategic Goals• Improve Weather Impact-Based Decision
Support Services
• Improve Water Forecasting Services
• Enhance Climate Services and adapt to climate-related risks
• Improve sector-relevant information in support of economic productivity
• Enable environmental forecast services supporting healthy communities and ecosystems
• Sustain a highly skilled, professional workforce equipped with training, tools, and infrastructure to meet mission
NWS Strategic Outcome:Weather-Ready Nation
NWS Strategic Outcome:Weather-Ready Nation
Prediction is what makes NOAA/NWS unique and indispensable!3
Operational numerical guidance:
Foundational tools to used to improve public safety, quality of life and make business decisions that
drive U.S. economic growth
4
Climate Modeling and Prediction
National Earth System Prediction Capability
North American Multi-Model Ensemble
Next Generation Global Prediction System
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project
Hi-Impact Weather Prediction Project
Warn on Forecast
Storm Surge Roadmap
National Air Quality Forecast Capability
Tsunami Modeling and Research
Space Weather Modeling
Ecological Forecasting
Integrated Water Resources Science and Services
Map NOAA Projects with Modeling into the Weather Ready Nation
NWS Strategic Goals• Improve Weather Impact-Based Decision
Support Services
• Improve Water Forecasting Services
• Enhance Climate Services and adapt to climate-related risks
• Improve sector-relevant information in support of economic productivity
• Enable environmental forecast services supporting healthy communities and ecosystems
• Sustain a highly skilled, professional workforce equipped with training, tools, and infrastructure to meet mission
Sector-Relevant = Energy, Transportation, Agriculture, Coastal
Feedback: Model Requirements and Pre-Implementation Assessments
Requirements definition• Identified as a weakness by NCEP
stakeholders• incomplete requirements may create false
expectations• NWS needs an improved process—is
portfolio management the answer?
5
Stakeholders--- need earlier access to information• What changes are being made?• What’s the rational?• What characteristics of the tool will change?• Stakeholder calibration methods need time and access to
pre-implementation data in order to adapt (i.e., GEFS FY15 Upgrade)
• 30-day NCO parallel insufficient for customer assessment
IMPROVE COMMUNICATION BETWEEN MODEL DEVELOPERS AND STAKEHOLDERS
National Weather Service
Current Status of SupercomputerCurrent Status of Supercomputer
Key Milestones:
• May 2014: 3km HWRF (Hurricane-Weather Research & Forecasting) model upgraded – best hurricane model in the world.
• Sept 2014: High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) operational – 3km every hr.
• Jan 2015: Global Forecast System (GFS) upgraded – 13km out to 10d.
• Upcoming Model Upgrades:• HWRF• SREF• GEFS• DA/GFS/4D ENKF• HRRR (HRRRe)
6
Goal: Increase HPC capacity from 776teraFLOPs in January 2015 to 2.5petaFLOPs (for primary and backup, respectively – for a total of 5 PF) by
the end of CY 2015.
Tera
FLO
P pe
r ope
ratio
nal s
yste
m ECMWF
1796
Forecast UncertaintyForecast Uncertainty
Minutes
Hours
Days
1 Week
2 Week
Months
Seasons
Years
Seamless Suite of Operational Numerical Guidance Systems
Fo
reca
st
Lea
d T
ime
Fo
reca
st
Lea
d T
ime
Warnings & Alert Coordination
Watches
Forecasts
Threats Assessments
Guidance
Outlook
Benefits
Mar
itim
e
Mar
itim
e
Life
& P
rope
rty
Life
& P
rope
rty
Spa
ce O
pera
tions
Spa
ce O
pera
tions
Rec
reat
ion
Rec
reat
ion
Eco
syst
em
Eco
syst
em
Env
iron
men
t
Env
iron
men
t
Em
erge
ncy
Mgm
t
Em
erge
ncy
Mgm
t
Agr
icul
ture
Agr
icul
ture
Res
ervo
ir C
ontr
ol
Res
ervo
ir C
ontr
ol
Ene
rgy
Pla
nnin
g
Ene
rgy
Pla
nnin
g
Com
mer
ce
Com
mer
ce
Hyd
ropo
wer
Hyd
ropo
wer
Fire
Wea
ther
Fire
Wea
ther
Hea
lthH
ealth
Avi
atio
n
Avi
atio
n• North American Ensemble Forecast System
• Climate Forecast System
• Short-Range Ensemble
• Global Forecast System
• North American Mesoscale
• Rapid Refresh
• Dispersion (smoke)
• Global Ensemble Forecast System
• Regional Hurricane• (HWRF & GFDL)
• Waves • Global Ocean• Space Weather
Spanning Weather and Climate
• Tsunami• Whole
Atmosphere• NMME• NSWPS
• Bays• Storm Surge
• Global Dust
• Fire Wx
7
• Air Quality
• Wave Ensemble• Land DA
• HRRR
Regional Hurricane
GFDLWRF-NMM
WRF(ARW, NMMB, NMM)
Climate ForecastSystem (CFS)
Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast
NOAA’s Operational Numerical Guidance Suite (December 2014)
GFS, MOM4,NOAH, Sea Ice
North American Ensemble Forecast System
GEFS, Canadian Global Model
Dispersion HYSPLIT
Air QualityCMAQ
Regional NAMNMMBNOAH
3D-V
AR
DA
Regional Bays• Great Lakes (POM)• N Gulf of Mexico
(FVCOM)• Columbia R. (SELFE)• Chesapeake (ROMS)
• Tampa (ROMS)• Delaware (ROMS)
• San Francisco (FVCOM)
SpaceWeather
ENLIL8
North American Land Surface Data Assimilation
SystemNOAH Land Surface Model
Global SpectralNOAH
3D-E
n-Va
rDA
Global Forecast System (GFS)
3D-V
AR
DA
3D-V
AR
DA
WRF ARW
Rapid Refresh
3D-V
AR
DA
WavesWaveWatch III
Ocean HYCOM
Ecosystem EwE
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)21 GFS Members
ESTOFSADCIRC
SURGESLOSH
P-SURGESLOSH
WRF ARW3D-V
AR
DA
High Resolution RRNEMS Aerosol Global Component (NGAC)
GFS & GOCART
WRF(ARW, NMMB)
High Res Windows
9
24-h Cycle 29 December 2014
Nu
mb
er
of
No
de
s
Time of Day (UTC)00 06 12 18 00
SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast)
HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh)
GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System)GDAS/GFS (Global Data Assimilation/Forecast System)
NAM (North American Mesoscale)
CFS (Climate Forecast System)
WW3 (Wave Watch III)RTOFS (Real Time Ocean Forecast System)
RAP (Rapid Refresh)
HRW (High Res Window)
Numerical Guidance On Supercomputer Phase 1 (Capacity ~ 0.208Pf)
GFS
NAM
SREF
HRRR
GEFS
RTOFS
WavesHiRESW
CFS
10
Phase 1: Computational Cost of Production Suite Components
% utilization based on the number of nodes used in a 24 hour period
Acronym ComponentHRRR High Resolution Rapid RefreshNAM North American ModelSREF Short Range Ensemble ForecastCFS Climate Forecast SystemGEFS Global Ensemble Forecast SystemHiRESW High Resolution WindowsGFS Global Forecast SystemMAG Model & Analysis GraphicsWAV WAVEWATCH IIIprodser COMMS OverheadRTOFS Real Time Ocean Forecast SystemRAP Rapid RefreshGWVENS Global Wave EnsembleRDAS Reagional Data Assimilation SystemGDAS Global Data Assimilation SystemFVS Forecast Verification System
Regional Systems45% of total
11
24-h Cycle 03 April 2015
Nu
mb
er
of
No
de
s
Time of Day (UTC)00 06 12 18 00
Numerical Guidance On Supercomputer Phase 1 (Capacity ~ 0.21 Pf) + Phase 2 (Capacity ~ 0.55Pf)
GFS NAMSREF
GEFS
RTOFSGWVENSHiRESW
CFS
RAP
HRRR
Phase 2
Phase 1
SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast)
HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh)
GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System)GDAS/GFS (Global Data Assimilation/Forecast System)
NAM (North American Mesoscale)
CFS (Climate Forecast System)
GWVENS (Global Wave Ensemble)RTOFS (Real Time Ocean Forecast System)
RAP (Rapid Refresh)
HRW (High Res Window)
12
Phase 1: Computational Cost of Production Suite Components
% utilization based on the number of nodes used in a 24 hour period
Acronym ComponentHRRR High Resolution Rapid RefreshNAM North American ModelSREF Short Range Ensemble ForecastCFS Climate Forecast SystemGEFS Global Ensemble Forecast SystemHiRESW High Resolution WindowsGFS Global Forecast SystemMAG Model & Analysis GraphicsWAV WAVEWATCH IIIprodser COMMS OverheadRTOFS Real Time Ocean Forecast SystemRAP Rapid RefreshGWVENS Global Wave EnsembleRDAS Reagional Data Assimilation SystemGDAS Global Data Assimilation SystemFVS Forecast Verification System
13
Commonly asked Questions: Production Suite Evolution
Global systems increase horizontal & vertical resolution• GFS satisfies NAM requirements (GFS to 13km @ day 10—Jan 2015)• GEFS satisfies SREF requirements (GEFS to 27km @ day 8—Spring 2015)• GEFS reforecasts a new requirement (Maintain current GEFS for 1-year)
Regional systems shift to convection permitting ensembles• HRRRE to satisfy WOF & NAM requirements (GSI, ARW and NMM)
Emerging requirements at weeks 3 & 4 and sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S)
• Coupled GEFS extended to 30-days + reforecasts • Improve CFS for sub-seasonal to seasonal• Operationalize the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
Coordinate other components of the production suite• Hydrologic• Space weather• Ecological • Arctic
14
UMAC Expectations: NCEP Director Perspective
First time with NOAA model developers, customers and external subject matter experts on modeling in the same room.
Outcome: a set of recommendations that will be used to build a strategy to evolve the NPS over the next 5-10 years
UMAC outcomes will inform:• The integrated NOAA modeling strategy• Priorities for NOAA funded research in modeling across line offices
• AO’s will allow external participation in research and development• Joint projects with NOAA scientists will be encouraged• External community becomes part of the development team• Involved in test plan development, execution and analysis (HWRF)
• Enable NOAA to have a robust modeling program designed to meet agency mission
Allows NOAA to step back and assess strategic evolution of the production suite