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Transcript of Ubs
Citywire North 2012UBS Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund
September 2012
For Professional Clients onlyEquities
Justin Wells
Equity Strategist
2
Emerging Markets Equities Team
Source: UBS Global Asset ManagementAs at 31 July 2012 1 Member of Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Committee Equity Income Specialists
Portfolio construction and research
A stable and experienced team managing ca. USD 21 bn
Geoffrey Wong1
Head Global Emerging Markets & Asia Pacific Equities
Hong Kong / Singapore
Manish Modi1
Portfolio ManagerAsia ex Japan
Cheah Yit Mee1
Portfolio ManagerAsia ex Japan
Bin ShiPortfolio ManagerChina
Projit Chatterjee1
Portfolio Manager / Equity Strategist
Namit NayegandhiAnalyst
Chan Chee SengAnalyst
Yu ZhangAnalyst
Sanjeev JoshiAnalyst
Joanna MakAnalyst
Leslie ChowAnalyst
Matthew AdamsAnalyst
Hai HuangAnalyst
Kelvin TeoAnalyst
Han Yaw JuanTrader
Jimmy ChuaHead Trader
Paul HillmanTrader
Reginald OhTrader
Dorothy LekTrader
Gabriel Csendes1
Portfolio ManagerAnalyst
Michael AbelleraTrader Latin America
Zurich / London / Chicago
Urs Antonioli1
Head of EM EMEA / Latin America Equities
Mark RoggensingerAnalyst
Gabriella AbderhaldenAnalyst
Irina BudnikovaAnalyst
Benita MikolajewiczAnalyst
Steve HerbertTrader EMEA
Macrina OtienoTrader EMEA
Justin WellsEquity Strategist
Choo Shou PinAnalyst
SECTION 1
Emerging Markets Survey
4
SurveyPlease review questions on screen
SECTION 2
Why EM Equities for Income?
6
EM Equities provide stable dividend payments
For the MSCI EM Equity index, dividend payments have steadily increased over the last ten years– Dividends have been significantly more stable than earnings
– The dividend payout ratio has been stable over time and mostly in the 30 – 40% range
– However it is currently still ca. 10% below world average
Potential for further increase in dividend payouts, as many companies enter mature growth phase
Source: DataStream, UBS Investment Research, as at 30 April 2012
MSCI EM, DPS and EPS MSCI World, DPS and EPS
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D
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Dec-99 Dec-01 Dec-03 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11
DPS EPS
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120
Dec-99 Dec-01 Dec-03 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11
DPS EPS
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EM Equities are able to keep paying sustainable dividends…
EM companies reduced their debt levels consistently during the past decade– Current net debt to equity ratios are below 25%, significantly lower than developed markets
companies with a ratio of 50%
In addition, EM companies have high cash levels on their balance sheets
Source: Worldscope, UBS Investment Research, April 2012
Net debt to Equity by region
…supported by low debt, high earning growth potential
Cash/Total Assets v Actual Payout Ratio
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12e
LatAm Asia EMEA
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12
30%
32%
34%
36%
38%
40%
42%
44%
46%
48%
50%
Cash / Total Asset (lhs) Payout ratio (rhs)
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Back-test of a High Dividend EM Equity portfolio over 10 years
10 years (31 December 2001 – 31 December 2011) EM MSCI universe
EM high dividend portfolio
Annualised return 14.5% 24.1%
Annualised standard deviation 25% 23%
Source: UBS Investment Bank Worldscope, DatastreamNote: The above chart shows returns by calendar year to 31 December 2011. All other information is as at 31 December 2011. 1 Back test rules: At each month end, the universe is restricted to stocks which are in the MSCI EM Index on that date. Each stock has a market capitalisation of at least USD 1 billion on that date. 75 stocks with the highest trailing dividend yield over the previous 12 months on that date are selected. These stocks are equally weighted within the portfolio. The portfolio is rebalanced at month end and the total returns computed in USD.Note: Back-test results or past performance are not guides for the future. No restriction to buy/sell stocks i.e. no constraint on having to actually receive dividends and payout the same as income. Our portfolio will be selected from ca. 350-400 stocks under our research coverage.
Portfolio selected from the entire universe of stocks in the MSCI EM index
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Ret
urn
by
year
EM MSCI universe High yield stocks
EM Equities performance from high dividend stocks is strong
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Split of MSCI World stocks yielding greater than 3%
Developed Asia Pacific ex Japan
16%
UK12%
Emerging17%
Developed Europe ex
UK26%
Developed North
America29%
Developed Europe ex
UK20%
Japan8%
Developed Asia Pacific ex Japan
13%
Emerging33%
Developed North
America19%
UK7%
EM’s share of high yielding stocks has increased
1995
Total number of stocks = 356
2011
Total number of stocks = 938
60 stocks 302 stocks
Source: Datastream, 31 December 2011Note: Only companies with market capitalisation >USD 1 billion included in survey
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Mat
eria
ls
Tele
com
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Ener
gy
Finan
cial
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Uti
liti
es IT
Indust
rial
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Cons.
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ple
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Cons.
Dis
c.
Hea
lth c
are
Gro
ss d
ivid
end y
ield
(%
)
EM Equities yields vary among countries and sectors
MSCI EM Index¹ (including Hong Kong & Singapore) MSCI EM Index
Index Dividend Yield: 3.0%
Reference Index is the MSCI EM Index
Source: UBS Investment Research, Factset, July 2012 1 Data shown is not for index as a whole but represented by the major markets within it. 2 Source: UBS Global Asset Management, B Inc share class, 31 July 2012. Historic yield is based on distributions declared over the last year as a percentage of the share price. It does not include the effect of any initial charge paid.
0
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Pola
nd
Bra
zil
Colo
mbia
Egyp
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Taiw
an
Russ
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Chin
a
Hungar
y
Singap
ore
South
Afr
ica
Hong K
ong
Thai
land
Mal
aysi
a
Indones
ia
Turk
ey
Chile
Philip
pin
es
India
Mex
ico
Peru
Kore
a
Gro
ss d
ivid
end y
ield
(%
)
Historic portfolio yield 5.4%²
Index Dividend Yield: 3.0%
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UBS Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund
OW Taiwan, South Africa, Poland
UW China, Korea, Brazil
Source: UBS Global Asset Management, Summit, as at 31 July 2012.
Country Positioning v MSCI EM Index
0 5 10 15 20
BrazilChile
ChinaColombia
Czech RepublicEgypt
Hong KongHungary
IndiaIndonesia
IsraelKorea
MalaysiaMexico
MoroccoPeru
PhilippinesPolandRussia
SingaporeSouth Africa
TaiwanThailand
Turkey
% weight
Portfolio %Reference Index %
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UBS Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund
Sector Positioning v MSCI EM Index OW Telecommunications and Information Technology
UW Energy and Consumer Staples
Source: UBS Global Asset Management, Summit, as at 31 July 2012.
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
TelecommunicationServices
InformationTechnology
Utilities
Financials
Health Care
Materials
Industrials
ConsumerDiscretionary
Consumer Staples
Energy
InformationTechnology
% weight
Portfolio %
Reference Index %
SECTION 3
Portfolio Construction
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UBS Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund
Investment and Portfolio Construction Process
Investment Universe of EM Equity team (300-400 stocks
researched)
Top dividend yield stocks
Client portfolio40 – 80 stocks
Remove stocks where dividends not sustainable or weak fundamentals
Add stocks where dividends very stable and/or likely to increase
Final portfolio construction by PMs
Filtrate: Select high dividend stocksRemove overvalued stocks
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Good Dividend Growth
Foschini is well positioned
Turnaround story
Mass middle market focus
Gaining market share due to improving product offering and attractive price points
Solid FCF improvement story driven by
Good revenue growth and stabilizing margins, scope to improve working capital
Future major acquisitions are unlikely, thereby sustaining the cash flow
Strong corporate governance
Responsible dividend discipline – flattish until top line performance improved
Expected improving dividend payout ratio going forward
Prospect of further funds being returned to shareholders post the IPO of microfinance business
Market Share of Modern Apparel Retail in South Africa
Top 5 Modern Apparel Retailers
Source: Bloomberg, UBS Global Asset Management, July 2012
Foschini (South Africa, Consumer Discretionary)
66%67%68%69%70%71%72%73%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Modern73%
Woolworths10%
Mr Price13%
Truworths9%
Foschini13%Edcon
28%Informal28%
12 Month Yield FY1 FY2
3 Yr Dividend Growth
1 Yr Dividend Growth
3.20% 3.90% 4.50% 12.97% 18.64%
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Good Dividend Growth
Asustek enjoys strong positioning within the industry
One of the fastest growing PC brands over last 3 years
Delivered decent margins throughout, while steadily gaining market share
Has withstood the serious ‘headwinds’ impacting the wider PC industry
Strong R&D capabilities and product design have positioned it well for future challenges
Good prospects for maintaining sustainable dividend
Recent corporate actions have reduced working capital requirements
Allowing cash dividends to increase over time
Future major acquisitions are unlikely, thereby sustaining the cash flow
Payout ratio likely to be maintained
Potential for special dividend upon future prospective divestments
Dividend Per Share
Top 5 PC vendor’s market share globally
Source: UBS Global Asset Management, July 2012
Source: IDC
Asustek (Taiwan, Information Technology)
0
5
10
15
20
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E
12 Month Yield FY1 FY2
3 Yr Dividend Growth
1 Yr Dividend Growth
4.90% 5.60% 6.40% 9.96% 26.36%
SECTION 4
Performance since inception
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Strong Performance
Source: Lipper as at 31 July 2012. The performance shown is for the B Inc share class, based on NAV prices with income reinvested net of basic rate tax and in Sterling terms.1 The Fund’s Sector is IMA Global Emerging Markets. 2 Launch date 31 January 2011.
Source: UBS Global Asset Management / FactSet, 31 July 2012Each bar relates to the discrete monthly performance of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. The blue line relates to the cumulative performance of the fund relative to the index.
Fund (%) Sector¹ (%) Quartile
3 Months -0.7 -2.1 1
6 Months -0.1 -2.5 1
1 Year 0.1 -9.3 1
Since launch² 3.9 -9.3 1
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12
Monthly perf absolute Relative performance cumulative
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UBS Emerging Markets Equity Income
Source: Lipper, based on NAV prices with income reinvested net of basic rate tax and in GBP terms. UBS EMEI refers to the B Income share class.
Risk/Return from launch (31 January 2011 to 31 July 2012)
UBS EMEI
IMA Global Emerging Markets MSCI Emerging Markets
20 20
Structural growth: transition to an EM-led global economy
Source: IMF, UBS IB research, July 2012
The past ….
The future (estimated average growth rates until 2015)….
Source: CEIC estimates & World Economic Outlook, IMF, UBS IB research and estimates, July 2012
Real GDP Growth (%)
0
2
4
6
8
Asia ex Japan EM World US DM Euro area
-6
-4
-2
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1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Advanced economies Emerging economies
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(30)
(20)
(10)
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20
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00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EM Earnings growth likely peaked
EM Earnings Revision EM Earnings Growth YoY
Source: MSCI, Datastream, IBES, UBS Quantitative Research, July 2012
Earn
ing
s R
evis
ion
s
Earn
ing
s G
row
th (
%)
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
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Summary
A summary of benefits
Prospect of providing a rising and sustainable income stream with the potential for capital growth from investing in EM equities
May be suitable for UK investors looking to diversify their sources of income from sole exposure to developed markets, that are burdened with debt and face demographic challenges
The UBS Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund
Benefit from the investment experience of a stable team managing in excess of USD 21 billion1 in EM and Asian equities
Leverages UBS EM Equity team’s fundamental research based investment process. The Fund invests in established companies within EM
Fund has achieved strong performance across multiple time periods
Coupled with an historic yield of 5.4%²
Why invest in Emerging Markets for Income?
1 Source: UBS Global Asset Management, as at 31 July 20122 Source UBS Global Asset Management, as at 31 July 2012. B income shareclass. Historic yield is based on distributions declared over the last year as a percentage of the share
price. It does not include the effect on any initial charge paid.
APPENDIX
Additional information
24
The UBS Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund
Investment goals
Focus on income generation, together with long-term capital appreciation. To be achieved by investing in equity securities across EM Equity Markets and HK/SG, focusing on companies with high and/or increasing dividend distributions
Targets to exceed 120% of the yield of the MSCI EM1
Other parameters
Active risk: Not applicable as no active benchmark
Expected beta range: typical <1
Number of equity holdings: 40-80
Opportunistic allocation of up to 20% to Singapore and Hong Kong2
Portfolio exposures
Investment goals and risk parameters:
1 Gross of fees and withholding tax over a full market cycle, which is typically 3-5 years.2 Maximum 20% allocation to Hong Kong & Singapore individually or cumulatively (to comply with IMA sector requirements this figure includes the amount of cash currently held
in the Fund).Otherwise, 25% absolute limit.
Relative Absolute
Stock weights Typical maximum of around 5%
Sector weights +/- 25% vs index 35%
Country weights2 +/- 25% vs index 25%
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Source: UBS Global Asset Management1 This is a non-benchmarked, equity income product. The dividend yield of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is used in reference to the overall dividend yield of the Fund.2 The IMA Global Emerging Markets sector ranks Funds on a Total Return basis. It should be noted that the Fund’s primary objective is to deliver income.
UBS Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund
Fund objective
To seek to generate income and achieve some long-term capital appreciation predominantly through active management of a diversified portfolio invested in high yield equity securities across global emerging markets including Hong Kong and Singapore
Fund details ‘A’ shares ‘B’ shares
Launch date 31 January 2011 Reference index1 MSCI Emerging Markets Index Sector IMA Global Emerging Markets2 Initial charge 4.00% 0.00% AMC 1.50% 0.90% Minimum initial investment £1,000 £100,000 XD dates 31 March, 30 September Pay dates 31 May, 30 November Sedol code (Acc) B5LPBN8 B5M1470 Sedol code (Inc) B5W93T9 B5KZ5J3 ISIN code (Acc) GB00B5LPBN84 GB00B5M14703 ISIN code (Inc) GB00B5W93T93 GB00B5KZ5J37 ISA Yes ISA transfer Yes
26
Urs Antonioli, CFA
Head of EM EMEA & Latin America Equities and Portfolio ManagerManaging Director
Urs Antonioli heads investment management and research for Emerging Europe, the Middle East and Latin America. He manages a team of analysts researching companies, industries and countries in the above region.
Urs is a member of the UBS Global Asset Management Emerging Markets Strategy Committee.
Urs began his financial career by joining the UBS Zurich graduate training programme in 1994. In 1995 he moved to UBS Asset Management to launch and manage the first UBS emerging market fund investing in Eastern European countries. From 1996 to 2000, his responsibilities comprised management of all Eastern European portfolios managed at UBS. He has spent more than eight years in research activities, specializing in energy, telecommunications, basic materials and the technology sector. He took up his present position in August 2001.
Years of investment industry experience: 16
Education: University of Fribourg (Switzerland) MBA
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Projit Chatterjee, CFA Equity Strategist, Global Emerging Markets and Asia Pacific Equities, Managing Director
Projit Chatterjee is an Equity Strategist within the Global Emerging Markets and Asia Pacific Equities team. He is a member of the Global Emerging Markets Strategy Committee and is based in the Singapore office. He is also co-manager of the GEM and Asia High Dividend funds.
Projit has primary responsibility for overall product positioning and development of Emerging Markets and Asian Equity strategies, as well as marketing and communication of these strategies to existing and prospective clients globally.
Prior to this, Projit led an acquisition project in the Indian market.
Projit joined UBS in 1997 as a Corporate Finance Analyst with UBS Investment Bank in Mumbai, India. In 1999, he moved to UBS Global Asset Management in Zurich to work in Strategic Projects, International Fund Marketing. In Zurich, Projit held various roles in the areas of strategic business development, business management and investment solutions.
Before joining UBS, Projit worked briefly as a money market and foreign exchange dealer in the treasury of Mashreq Bank, a UAE bank in Mumbai.
Years of investment industry experience: 16
Education: Indian Institute of Technology (India), B.Tech; Indian Institute of Management (India), MBA
28
Justin WellsEquity Strategist Director
Justin Wells is an Equity Strategist for Emerging Market Equities, based in Zurich. He is responsible for representing the strategies managed by the EM Equities team in Zurich, including Global Emerging Markets, Latin America, Russia, and Central & Eastern Europe.
Justin joined UBS Global Asset Management in 2007 initially as a Product Development Manager. He was responsible for coordinating the launch of the Global Emerging Market HALO fund and worked with the Equities team on the Long-Short initiative. He moved to his current role in August 2010.
Prior to joining UBS, Justin worked in various roles within Equity Capital Markets, latterly as an Investment Advisor to the CIO of Shinsei Bank, Tokyo. Before pursuing a career in finance, Justin practiced as a Barrister in London for a number of years.
Years of investment industry experience: 7
Education: Queen’s University of Belfast (UK), BA (Hons); Durham University (UK), LL.B (Hons)
29
Disclaimer
This document is for Professional Clients only. It is not to be distributed to or relied upon by Retail Clients under any circumstances.Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and are not guaranteed. Investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Changes in rates of exchange may cause the value of this investment to fluctuate. Investments in less developed markets may be more volatile than investments in more established markets. The Fund is permitted to, and may, on occasion, hold a limited number of investments. As the annual management fee of the Fund is charged to capital, the potential capital growth of the Fund will be reduced.
This document is a marketing communication. Any market or investment views expressed are not intended to be investment research. The document has not been prepared in line with the FSA requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. The information contained in this document should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security and the opinions expressed are those of UBS Global Asset Management and are subject to change without notice.
Issued in September 2012 by UBS Global Asset Management (UK) Ltd, a subsidiary of UBS AG, 21 Lombard Street, London EC3V 9AH. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Telephone calls may be recorded.
© UBS 2012. The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS. All rights reserved.