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Transcript of UBS Warburg Global Financial Services Conference Stephen Crawford Chief Financial Officer April 24,...
UBS WarburgGlobal Financial Services Conference
Stephen Crawford
Chief Financial Officer
April 24, 2002
2
This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on April 24, 2002.
Sales and Trading
3,956 4,403
6,622
8,8518,258
2,035
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1Q2002
Sales and Trading Net Revenues
($MM, % Total)
% of Firm Revenues 27% 27% 31% 34% 37% 39%
1997-2001 CAGR: 20%
3
This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on April 24, 2002.
Diversification
47%
53%
63%
37%
57%
43%
68%
32%
56%
44%
46%
54%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1Q02
Sales and Trading Net Revenues
($MM, % Total)
Equity Fixed Income
4
This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on April 24, 2002.
Balance Sheet(1)
$MMs
Note: (1) As February 28, 2002
Total Assets
Cash and cash equivalents
Financing transactions, including:Reverse repos and securities borrowed
Financial instruments, including:Cash products ($118,770)Derivative products ($31,814)
Receivables, net of allowances:
Other assets, primarily includes:Aircraft, cash collateral, goodwill, office facilities etc.
Asset Class
$491,651
74,298
194,222
158,846
47,885
16,400
Balance$MMs
15%
40%
32%
10%
3%
% ofTotal
5
This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on April 24, 2002.
Financial Instruments – Cash(1)
Bank Loans: $4.9Bn
Private Equity: $900MM(2)
High Yield: $1.6Bn
Loans and Commitments
Investment Grade
Non-Investment Grade
75%
25%
Note: (1) As of February 28, 2002(2) Of which only $250 MM is in inventory
Selected Financial Instruments
Total: $10.2Bn
6
This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on April 24, 2002.
Financial Instruments – Derivatives(1)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
<1 Yrs 1-3 Yrs 3-5 Yrs 5+ Yrs0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
Interest FX Equity Commodities
Maturity Profile by Counterparty Rating
($MMs)
Counterparty Rating by Product
($MMs)
AAA AA A BBB NIGNote: (1) As February 28, 2002
7
This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on April 24, 2002.
Product Lifecycle
Time
Margins Volume
CreditDerivatives 2002
Interest RateSwaps 2002
8
This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on April 24, 2002.
Revenue Drivers
Trading Volumes
Volatility
Primary Activity
Market Direction
9
This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on April 24, 2002.
Business Model
Increase FlowLowers Risk Strengthens Client
Relationships
10
This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on April 24, 2002.
6.5 11.1 14.9 18.3 21.7
78.3
34
5766 72 78
22
13 23 30 35 38 41 44 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 6040
Consolidation and Fragmentation
2001 Mutual Funds 2001 Passive Funds
Top 15 Complexes (Cumulative Share %) (%)
2001 Separately Managed Accounts
(Cumulative Share %)
Fidelity
Vangu
ard
Cap R
esea
rch
Putna
m F
unds
Frank
lin T
emple
ton
Mor
gan
Stanle
y
Janu
s
TIAA-C
REFM
FS
Oppen
heim
erAIM
Amer
ican
Expre
ssT. R
owe
Price
Amer
ican
Centu
ry
PIMCO
All Oth
ers
2001 Hedge Funds
(%)
3856
75
25
BHT SSGA Vanguard Deutsche Mellon Other
Brandes Rittenhouse Alliance 1838Advisors
Lazard OtherTop 20 Next 20 Next 60 Next 535Source for above charts: Morgan Stanley/Freeman Securities Research
11
This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on April 24, 2002.
Client Service Model
Three customer segments Mutual funds Hedge funds Asset owners
Different value chains Best execution Enhanced services Advice Capital
One prerequisite: Scale operations
12
This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on April 24, 2002.
Execution
Applied OTC market making technology and strategy to options business
Making markets in 40,000 instruments, representing 435 names – from standing start in August 1999
Largely automated operations – handful of traders
OTC Market Making Automated Options Market MakingTotal Number of Stocks
650
1,600
End-2000 1Q2002
13
This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on April 24, 2002.
Services and Advice
Analytics
Financing
Settlement
Securities lending
Dedicated trading
Tax and regulatory advice
Technology
14
This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on April 24, 2002.
Research
Japan II First Teams 2002
Chemicals Construction Metals Software/Business
Autos & Auto Parts Insurance Telecommunications Equipment Equity Strategy
Global II First Teams 2001
Top Ranked Analysts by Institutional Investor
Morgan Stanley Proprietary Research Ratings System
Ratings as of 3/18/2002:
O or Over = Overweight E or Equal = Equal-weight U or Under = Underweight
Pre- 3/18/2002 Ratings:
SB = Strong Buy O = Outperform N = Neutral U = Underperform
Currently 22% of stocks are ranked Underweight by MWD Analysts
North America II First Teams 2001
Medical Supplies & Devices Cable Publishing & Information
Services Radio & TV Broadcasting Enterprise Software Internet Infrastructure
Services
Specialty Chemicals Data Networking Autos & Auto Parts Brokers & Asset
Managers Insurance/Nonlife
Europe II First Teams 2002
Autos & Auto Parts Luxury Goods Telecommunications
Equipment Tobacco
Convertibles Economics/Developed
Markets Equity Strategy/Developed
Markets
15
This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on April 24, 2002.
Scale
Morgan Stanley Institutional Securities Trading Volume and Cost per Trade
(Indexed)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002YTD
GrossVolumes
OperationsExpenses
Cost per Trade
16
This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on April 24, 2002.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20020.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Risk EfficiencyFirm Risk Efficiency and VaR
Ratio ($MM)
Ex-ante Risk Efficiency(1) Ex-post Risk Efficiency(2) Firm Avg. VaR
Note: (1) Ex-ante Risk Efficiency is calculated as Average P&L / Average VaR (2) Ex-post Risk Efficiency is calculated as Average P&L / Standard Deviation (P&L)
17
This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on April 24, 2002.
131 139 141 151198
278
226
95 96 97 98 99 00 01
7588
101 108 113131
119
95 96 97 98 99 00 01Source: FIBV
46 54 6379
107 10890
95 96 97 98 99 00 01
European Opportunity: Equities
Equity Capital Markets Penetration, U.S. Equity Capital Markets Penetration, EuropeMarket Capitalization/GDP (%)
Turnover Velocity of Domestic Shares, U.S. (1)
(%)
94 108129
144181
154
121
95 96 97 98 99 00 01
Market Capitalization/GDP (%)
Turnover Velocity of Domestic Shares, Europe (2)
(%)
Notes: (1) Based on blended turnover velocity of NYSE and Nasdaq. Turnover velocity defined as Total Trading Volume/Exchange Market Capitalization, calculated using monthly figures.(2) Based on blended turnover of LSE, Deutsche Börse, Euronext Paris, and Milan. Turnover velocity declined as Total Trading Volume/Exchange Market Capitalization, calculated using monthly figures. From 1995-2000, Euronext data is for Euronext Paris only; 2001 data consolidates other Euronext exchanges (Brussels, Amsterdam). Consequently, 2001 weighted-average turnover velocity gives greater weight to Euronext than in previous years.
Source: FIBV, Bureau of Economic Analysis Source: FIBV, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat Yearbook 2001
Source: FIBV
18
This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on April 24, 2002.
2,404
303
2,450
320
2,504
322
2,528
333
2,601
334
2,594
335
2,686
341
2,701
354
2,796
364
2,895
369
2,998
381
3,101
402
3,199
419
3,319
454
3,388
479
3,428
492
4Q97 1Q98 2Q98 3Q98 4Q98 1Q99 2Q99 3Q99 4Q99 1Q00 2Q00 3Q00 4Q00 1Q01 2Q01 3Q01
European Opportunity: Fixed IncomePercent of Private Non-financial Debt Outstanding in U.S.
(%)
25
30
35
40
45
50
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Bank Loans Bonds
Main Financial Liabilities of Euro-Area Non-Financial Corporations
(€Bn)
Source: Federal Reserve Board
Bank Loans BondsSource: ECB Monthly Bulletin, March 2002Note: (1) Data reflects expanded Euro-Area (addition of Greece) from 1Q01 onward.
2,707 2,769 2,826 2,861 2,934 2,929 3,028 3,055 3,159 3,263 3,379 3,502 3,618 3,773 3,867 3,920
4Q97 – 3Q01 CAGR:
10.4%
13.8%
9.9%
(1) (1) (1)
19
This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on April 24, 2002.
Relative Returns
Annual ROE Comparison
(Indexed to MWD)
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1Q2002
MWD
LEH
GSMER
JPM
C
Source: Company filings and Morgan Stanley Research