Ubiquitous sustainable cities, Roger Ghanem University of Southern California
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Transcript of Ubiquitous sustainable cities, Roger Ghanem University of Southern California
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Ubiquitous Sustainable Cities
Roger Ghanem1
1University of Southern CaliforniaLos Angeles, CA, USA
October 6th 2009
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Outline
Essential Contributions from many colleagues at USC, CSULB,Columbia, ASU, Princeton, and RAND.
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Essential Premise
Actions we take today will shape the reality of tomorrow:strong coupling between several complex systems
Accurate anticipation is conducive to effective decisions.
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Essential Premise
Actions we take today will shape the reality of tomorrow:strong coupling between several complex systems
Accurate anticipation is conducive to effective decisions.
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Societal DriversSUSTAINABILITY BY DESIGN:
Anticipate HealthAir qualityWater supply and qualityClimate change
Anticipate WealthLocal and global economic growthConditions of civil infrastructuresPopulation dynamics
Over long time horizons (30 years - 100 years).
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Societal DriversSUSTAINABILITY BY DESIGN:
Anticipate HealthAir qualityWater supply and qualityClimate change
Anticipate WealthLocal and global economic growthConditions of civil infrastructuresPopulation dynamics
Over long time horizons (30 years - 100 years).
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ChallengesComplexity, Uncertainty, Mutiple scales, Humans-in-the-loop
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ChallengesComplexity, Uncertainty, Mutiple scales, Humans-in-the-loop
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ChallengesComplexity, Uncertainty, Mutiple scales, Humans-in-the-loop
Quantities of interest are observed on a multitutde of scales.Strong coupling between well-understood physical processes andhighly speculative processes underlying human and socialdynamics.Significant uncertainty exists in all components of the problem.Coupling between human and physical processes is at a coarsestscale (media-bites).Stakeholders are not of voting age.
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Some Hope
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Some HopeSUMMARY FROM A DOE WORKSHOP:
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Integrated SolutionSENSING/COMMUNICATING/MODELING/DECISION
Testbeds
POWER DEMAND PREDICTION
EARTHQUAKE IN LOS ANGELES
GPSwater usepower use
traffic
seismograms/ mech. sensors
InfoGridSTATE OF URBANUS:
(current snapshot + archive)
PRESENT (or typical update time) FUTURE
Anticipationw/ Climate
Change
GPSwater usepower use
trafficseismograms
InfoGridANTICIPATED STATE
OF URBANUS
POLICY
Population DensityBehavior of Agents in ABM
Economic ActivityGround Motion
Condition of Lifelines
Population DensityBehavior of Agents in ABM
Economic ActivityGround Motion
Condition of Lifelines
ANTICIPATED LANDSCAPES
INFERRED LANDSCAPES
MODELING
INFERRED LANDSCAPES
ANTICIPATED LANDSCAPES
FLOODING IN NEW YORK CITY
TRANSPORTATION IN
LOS ANGELES
UPSCALING DOWNSCA
LING
seismograms/ mech. sensors
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Vision
Use information technology and modeling to enable theengineering of policies and decisions with managedconsequences.Enable data-driven prediction science for complex coupledinfrastructure systems accounting for human dynamics.
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Approach and Methodology
Create information immersion through a hierarchy of areanetworks .Develop requisite IT infrastructure.Develop validated models of population dynamics and modelresponse of humans to policies and environmental drivers.Develop models for coupling humans and infrastructure systems.Fold predictive models into decision-making environments.
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Integrated SolutionSENSING/COMMUNICATING/MODELING/DECISION
Testbeds
POWER DEMAND PREDICTION
EARTHQUAKE IN LOS ANGELES
GPSwater usepower use
traffic
seismograms/ mech. sensors
InfoGridSTATE OF URBANUS:
(current snapshot + archive)
PRESENT (or typical update time) FUTURE
Anticipationw/ Climate
Change
GPSwater usepower use
trafficseismograms
InfoGridANTICIPATED STATE
OF URBANUS
POLICY
Population DensityBehavior of Agents in ABM
Economic ActivityGround Motion
Condition of Lifelines
Population DensityBehavior of Agents in ABM
Economic ActivityGround Motion
Condition of Lifelines
ANTICIPATED LANDSCAPES
INFERRED LANDSCAPES
MODELING
INFERRED LANDSCAPES
ANTICIPATED LANDSCAPES
FLOODING IN NEW YORK CITY
TRANSPORTATION IN
LOS ANGELES
UPSCALING DOWNSCA
LING
seismograms/ mech. sensors
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Nuts and BoltsON MANY LEVELS
Info Systems Models Policies
Sys
tem
s R
esea
rch
Sys
tem
Req
uire
men
ts
Fundamental Research Knowledge Base
Info. Sciencew/ Massive Data & Networks
Validation & Updating Under Complexity
Stability & Control ofHeterogenous Dynamical Sys.
Algorithms forReal-time Inference/Decision
Decision MakingUnder Complexity
QuantitativeHuman Interactions
Fundamental Insights
Fundamental Barriers1. Massive Heterogeneous
Networks2. Massive Heterogeneous
Data3. Complex Interactions
4. Long prediction horizon5. Uncertainties
6. Complexity of Humans
Technology Elements
Enabling Technology Research Technology Base
Enabling Tech Barriers1. Heterogeneous Data
2. Knowledge Extraction3. Sensor-Model Interface
4. Uncertainty in PredictionsTestbed
MYRIAD
Testbed
ModelingSystems &
Interactions
Testbed
UD-Platform
Sys
tem
Req
uire
men
ts
Systems Research Technology Integration
Requirements
Products& Outcomes
Systems Barriers1. Analysis of coupled
system2. Feedback to
Fundamental Research3. Metrics for System
Performance Industry
Partners andInnovation
Partners
Stakeholders:Decision Makers
CitizensPrivate Sector
TransportationSystem in
Los AngelesFlooding in
New York City
Earthquakein Los Angeles
Testbed
PowerDemand
PredictionTestbed
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Closing
science has advanced to the point where we can build materialsone atom at a time.humans are arguably more comple than atoms.information immersion seems like a reasonable way forward.
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