TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report – Final Report, June 2020 · 2020-07-02 · 4 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG...

European Network ofTransmission System Operators

for Electricity

Energy

Biomethane

GHG

Beyond

Paris

COP21

CO2

Climate Targets

2050NECP

Net-zero

Bio-energy

WindSolar

Hydro

Hydrogen

Methane

Carbon Capture

Europe

Power-to-gas

Sector coupling

Decarbonised economy

Renewable energy

Distributed Energy

Carbon budget

Electricity

Hybrid System

Gas

Global Ambition

TYNDP 2020SCENARIO REPORT

National Trends

Scenarios

Contents

Foreword 3

1 Introduction 4

2 Purpose of the scenario report 6

3 Highlights 8

4 Special Focus: Pathways towards a decarbonised economy 94.1 NationalTrends–thecentralpolicyscenarioalignedwithdraftNECPs 94.2 COP21scenarios–acarbonbudgetapproach 104.3 Sector-Coupling–anenablerfor( full )decarbonisation 12

5 Scenario description and storylines 13

6 Scenario Results 176.1 Demand 186.2 Supply 256.3 SectorCoupling:CapacityandGenerationforP2GandP2L 336.4 ReductioninoverallEU28CO₂Emissionsandnecessarymeasures 34

7 Electricity Costs 37

8 Benchmarking 408.1 FinalElectricityDemand 418.2 Gasdemand 438.3 Renewablegassupply 458.4 Energyimports 468.5 CarbonCaptureandStorage 478.6 Conclusion 47

9 Fuel Commodities and Carbon Prices 48

10 Stakeholder feedback and how it shaped the scenarios 4910.1 StorylineConsultation 5110.2 DraftScenarioReportConsultation 53

11 Improvements in 2020 Scenarios 5511.1 Moresustainability-orientedScenarios( carbonbudget ) 5611.2 TotalEnergyScenarios( Top-down ) 5611.3 ElectricityDemand 5611.4 GasDemand 5711.5 ElectricityGeneration 5711.6 GasSupply 5811.7 P2GandP2L 5811.8 DataVisualisationPlatform 58

12 Next Steps 59

Glossary 60

List of Figures & Tables 62

Imprint 63

ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report // 3

We are delighted to present to you the electricity and gas joint Scenario Report,

thesecondreportofitskindtoinvolveENTSO-EandENTSOGworkingcloselytogethertodevelopthreescenariosforEurope.Scenarioworkisthefirstimportantsteptocapturetheinteractionsbetweenthegasandelectricitysystemsandisthereforeparamounttodeliv-erthebestassessmentoftheinfrastructureinahybridsystem.ThejointworkalsoprovidesabasistoallowassessmentfortheEuropeanCommission’sProjectsofCommonInterest(PCI)listforenergy,asENTSOGandENTSO-EprogresstodeveloptheirTen-YearNetworkDevelopmentPlans(TYNDPs).

Theoutcomesoftheworkpresented, illustratestheuniquepositionofthegasandelectricityTSOstoprovidequantitativeandqualitativeoutput:Intotalalmost90TSOs,coveringmorethan35countries,contributedtotheprocess.ThecombinedexpertiseandmodellingcapabilitiesenabledENTSO-EandENTSOG’sjointworkinggrouptobuildasetofambitiousandtechnicallyrobustscenarios.

Stakeholdercollaborationandfeedbackhasbeenanimmenselyimportantelementoftheprocessandwillcontinuetobeinfutureeditions.ThepublicationofthedraftScenarioReporton12November2019wasfollowedbyanexternalStakeholderWorkshopon5Decemberandanextensivepublicconsultation.ENTSOGandENTSO-EhavefinalisedtheirScenarioReportconsideringthefeedbackandrecommendationsofmorethan40externalstakeholders.

AcoreelementofENTSO-EandENTSOG’sscenariobuild-ingprocesshasbeentheuseofsupplyanddemanddatacollectedfrombothgasandelectricityTSOstobuildbot-tom-upscenarios.ThisapproachisusedfortheNational TrendsScenario,thecentralpolicyscenarioofthisreport,recognisingnationalandEUclimatetargets,notablytheNationalEnergyandClimatePlans(NECPs).Inviewofthe1.5°CtargetoftheParisAgreement,ENTSOshavealsodevelopedtheGlobal AmbitionandDistributed Energy Scenariosusingatop-downapproachwithafull-energyperspective.

AsENTSO-EandENTSOGlooktothefuture,itisevidentthatinnovation,integrationandefficiencyarekeytomeetingEuropeanenergyconsumers’needs,whilstalsoachievingEUdecarbonisationgoals.Bothgasandelectricitynetworksconnectcountriesandleadtoregionalandpan-Europeansolidarityandeconomiesofscale,whileensuringelectricityandgasaredeliveredreliablytocustomersthroughouttheyear,includingpeakdemandsituations.Bothnetworksplayakeyroleinsupportingtheuptakeofnewtechnologiesandmeetingdecarbonisationchallenges.Energyconversionprojectsmustprogress:Power-to-Gas,forexample,allowselectricityfromrenew-ablestobetransformedintorenewablegases,tobestoredandtransportedviathegasinfrastructure.

Integrationoftheelectricityandgassectorcanoptimisetheassessmentandusageofbothgrids,whilstcontinuingtomeettheEuropeanenergypolicyobjectivesofsustainability,securityofsupplyandcompetitiveness.Ahybridenergyinfrastructure–consistingofasystemofinterconnectedelectricityandgassystems–ascross-borderenergycarrierswillresultinflexibility,storageandsecurityofsupply.

Theintegrityofthenetworkdevelopmentprocessisreliantonacomprehensive,reliableandcontrastedsetofpossibleenergyfutures–thecollaborativeeffortsofENTSO-EandENTSOG,energyindustries,NGOs,NationalRegulatoryAuthoritiesandMemberStateshaveshownthecommit-menttoensurethisisthecase.ThedevelopmentoftheScenariosoutlinedinthisreportwillallowtheTYNDPstoperformasoundassessmentofEuropeaninfrastruc-turerequirements.WelookforwardtoworkingwithyouagainaswefollowthenextimportantstepsintheTYNDPprocess.

Foreword

Jan Ingwersen General Director ENTSOG

Laurent Schmitt Secretary-General ENTSO-E

4 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report

What is this report about?

TheTYNDP2020FinalScenarioReportdescribespossibleEuropeanenergyfuturesupto2050.Scenarios are not forecasts;theysetoutarangeofpossiblefuturesusedbytheENTSO-EandENTSOGtotestfutureelectricityandgasinfrastructureneedsandprojects.Thescenariosare

ambitiousastheydeliveralowcarbonenergysystemforEuropeby2050.ENTSO-EandENTSOGhavedevelopedcrediblescenariosthatareguidedbytechnicallysoundpathways,whilereflectingcountrybycountryspecifics,sothatapanEuropeanlowcarbonfutureisachieved.

Forward-looking scenarios to study the future of gas and electricity

Regulation( EU )347/2013requiresthattheENTSO-EandENTSOGusescenariosfortheirrespectiveTen-YearNetworkDevelopmentPlans( TYNDPs )2020.ENTSO-EusescenariostoassesselectricitysecurityofsupplyfortheENTSO-EMid-TermAdequacyForecast( MAF ).

AllscenariosheadtowardsadecarbonisedfutureandhavebeendesignedtoreduceGHGemissionsinlinewithEUtargetsfor2030ortheUnitedNationsClimateChangeConference2015( COP21 )ParisAgreementobjectiveofkeepingtemperaturerisebelow1.5°C.

Introduction1

https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/579d92a9-acc7-11e2-ab01-01aa75ed71a1/language-en


Why do ENTSOG and ENTSO-E build scenarios together?

1 https://www.entsog.eu/sites/default/files/2019-06/190408_WGSB_Scenario%20Building%202020_Final%20Storyline%20Report.pdf

2 https://www.entsos-tyndp2020-scenarios.eu/visualisation-platform/

3 https://www.entsos-tyndp2020-scenarios.eu/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/TYNDP_2020_Scenario_Building_Guidelines_Final_Report.pdf

ThejointscenarioreportisabasistowardsaninterlinkedmodelofENTSO-EandENTSOG.TYNDP2018wasthefirsttimeENTSOGandENTSO-Ecooperatedjointlyonscenariodevelopment.Therearestrongsynergiesandco-dependencybetweengasandelectricityinfrastructures,itisincreasinglyimportanttounderstandtheimpactsasEuropeanpolicyseekstodeliveracarbon-neutralenergysystemby2050.

JointscenariosallowENTSOGandENTSO-Etoassessfutureinfrastructureneedsandprojectsagainstthesamefutureoutlooks.Theoutcomesfromthejointscenariosprovidedecisionmakerswithbetter information,astheyseektomakeinformedchoicesthatwillbenefitallEuropeanconsumers.CombiningtheeffortsfromgasandelectricityTSOsgiveENTSOGandENTSO-Eanopportunitytotapintocross-sectoralknowledgeandexpertisethatwouldotherwisebemissing.Jointworkingprovidesaccesstoabroaderrangeofstakeholderswhoareactivelyparticipatingintheenergysector.

First step towards the 2020 edition of electricity and gas TYNDPs

ThejointscenariobuildingprocesshasthreestorylinesforTYNDP2020.National Trendsisthecentralpolicyscenar-ioofthisreport,designedtoreflectthemostrecentEUmemberstateNationalEnergyandClimatePlans( NECP ),submittedtotheECinlinewiththerequirementtomeetcurrentEuropean2030energystrategytargets.National Trendsrepresentsapolicyscenariousedintheinfra-structureassessmentphaseofENTSOG'sandENTSO-E'srespectiveTen-YearNetworkDevelopmentPlans( TYNDP )2020,withamorein-depthanalysisascomparedtotheotherscenarios.

Inaddition,ENTSO-EandENTSOGhavecreatedtwoscenariosinlinewiththeCOP21targets( Distributed EnergyandGlobal Ambition )withtheobjectivetounder-standtheimpactoninfrastructureneedsagainstdifferentpathwaysreducingEU-28emissionstonet-zeroby2050.ThethreescenariostorylinesdevelopedinconsultationwithstakeholdersaredetailedextensivelyinENTSOGandENTSO-EStorylinesReport 1releasedinMay2019.Distrib-utedEnergyhasbeenfurtheradaptedonthe2040–2050timehorizontakingintoaccountstakeholderfeedbackandtoensurehigherdifferentiationwiththeotherCOP21Scenario,GlobalAmbition.

Visualise and download scenarios data

ThejointscenariopackageprovidesanextensivedatasetresourcethatisusedfortheENTSOTYNDPandisthebasisforotherstudies.ScenarioinformationcontainedinthisreportisprovidedinEU-28termsunlessstatedoth-erwise.ThetechnicaldatasetssubmittedtotheTYDNPprocessandavailabletodownloadextendbeyondtheEU-28countries,includingcountriessuchasNorway,Switzerland,Turkey.

ENTSOGandENTSO-Einvitestakeholderstousethescenariodatasetsfortheirownstudies.Alldatafromthescenarioscanbeaccessedviathevisualisationplatform 2.

WhereasDistributed EnergyandGlobal Ambitionhavebeenbuiltasfull-energyscenarioswithaperspectiveuntil2050,National TrendsisbasedonelectricityandgasrelateddataalignedwithNECPsanddevelopeduntil2040.

Methodology in details

Thedevelopmentofthescenariosbuildsonstorylinesandamethodologytotranslatethestorylinesintoparam-etersandeventuallyfigures.TheTYNDP2020ScenarioBuildingGuidelines 3providesfulltransparencyonhow

thescenariosareelaboratedandhowthedevelopmentofdifferentdemandtechnologies,generationandconversioncapacities,renewablesharesandallotherparametersareconsidered.

https://www.entsog.eu/sites/default/files/2019-06/190408_WGSB_Scenario%20Building%202020_Final%20Storyline%20Report.pdf

https://www.entsos-tyndp2020-scenarios.eu/visualisation-platform/

https://www.entsos-tyndp2020-scenarios.eu/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/TYNDP_2020_Scenario_Building_Guidelines_Final_Report.pdf


What is the purpose of the scenarios and how should they be used?

AsoutlinedinRegulation( EU )347/2013,ENTSOGandENTSO-EarerequiredtousescenariosasthebasisfortheofficialTenYearNetworkDevelopmentPlans( createdeverytwoyearsbyENTSO-EandENTSOG )andforthecalculationofthecost-benefitanalysis( CBA )usedtode-termineEUfundingforelectricityandgasinfrastructureProjectsofCommonInterest( PCI ).Thescenariosweredesignedspecificallyforthispurpose.Wherepossible,theyhavebeenderivedfromofficialEUandmember-statedatasources,andareintendedtoprovideanimpartialquantita-tivebasisforinfrastructureinvestmentplanning.

Thescenariosareintendedtoprojectthelong-termen-ergydemandandsupplyforENTSOG’sandENTSO-E’sTenYearNetworkDevelopmentPlandevelopmentwithinthecontextoftheongoingEnergyTransition.Theyaredesignedinsuchawaythattheyspecificallyexplorethose

uncertaintieswhicharerelevantforgasandelectricityinfrastructuredevelopment.Assuch,theyprimarilyfocusonaspectswhichdeterminetheinfrastructureutilisation.Furthermore,thescenariosdrawextensivelyonthecurrentpoliticalandeconomicconsensusandattempttofollowalogicaltrajectorytoachievefutureenergyandclimatetargets.

Thescenariosshouldprovidetheuserwithinsightintotheenergysystemofthefutureandtheroleofelectricityandgascarriersinthisenergysystem.Usersareabletodeterminetheeffectsofchangesinsupplyanddemandontheenergysystem.TheEuropeanandglobalperspectivesforthesescenariosenabletheusertotracksupplyanddemanddevelopmentsgeographicallyaswellastemporallyandtogaingreaterinsightintothechallengesfacingener-gyinfrastructureduringtheEnergyTransition.

Purpose of the scenario report2


What isn’t the purpose of the scenarios?

TheWorkingGroupScenarioBuildinghasgonetogreatlengthstobuildonthe2020ScenarioReportandtoin-creaseitsambitions,especiallyinconsideringexternalfac-torssuchastheEnergyTransitionandthedecarbonisationoftheEuropeanenergysystemonenergyinfrastructure.Nonetheless,itisimportanttorecognisethatthescopeofthesescenariosremainsfocusedonprovidingsufficientinputdatatomodelfutureinfrastructureneeds.

TheWorkingGroupScenarioBuildinghavesoughttoavoidmakingpoliticalstatementswiththesescenariosand,asfaraspossible,toanchorkeyparametersinwidelyaccepteddataandassumptions.TheNationalTrendsscenarioexistswithinaninputframeworkprovidedbyofficialdatasets( suchasPRIMES )andofficialenergypolicies( theNECPsoftheEUmemberstates ).ThegoaloftheWorkingGroupScenarioBuildinghasbeentomaintainaneutralperspec-tivetotheseinputs.

Whilethetop-downscenarioshavegreaterroomforin-novationtomeetmoreambitiousdecarbonisationoftheEnergysystemupto2050,itisnottheintentionoftheWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingtousethesescenariostopushpoliticalagendasattachedtotheuseornon-useofspecificenergycarriersortechnologies.ThemainfocusoftheTYNDPScenarioReportisthelong-termdevelopmentofenergyinfrastructure.Assuch,thedifferencesbetweenthetwotop-downscenarios( GlobalAmbitionandDis-tributedEnergy )arepredominantlyrelatedtopossiblevariationsindemandandsupplypatterns.

Tothisend,allthescenariosintheTYNDP2020ScenarioReportremaintechnologyandenergy-carrierneutral.Theenergymixdeployedineachofthesescenarioshasbeendesignedtoreflectabroadconsensuswithintheenergy

industryandcorrelatestoalargeextentwithofficialliter-ature–mostprominentlywiththeEU’sownLong-TermStrategyscenarios.

Wherethescenarioshaveincorporatedparametersde-finedbyexternalanalysis( suchasthecalculationofacarbonbudgetbyClimateActionNetworkEuropeortheBiomethaneTooldesignedwiththesupportofNavigant ),theexternalanalysisconformstothewidelyacceptedunderstandingofthesetopics.

TheTYNDP2020ScenarioReportattemptstoreflecttheEnergyTransitionandthedecarbonisationeffortsoftheEuropeanenergysysteminitsscenarios.Thisisin-corporatedbytheuseoftheCOP21Agreement( intheformofacarbonbudgetcalculation )asoneofthekeyinputparametersforthetop-downscenarios.However,itisimportanttorecognizethatitisbeyondthescope( andindeedtheresources )oftheWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingtoanalysepolitical,environmentalandindeedsocietaldevelopmentsonthewidestscale.

Aboveallitisimportanttorecognizethefast-movingnatureoftheEnergyTransitioninEurope.TheWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingrecognisestherealitythatsomeoftheinputparametersusedinthecreationofthesescenar-iosmaywellneedtobeadjustedinthemonthsandyearstocomeastheenergypolicyoftheEUanditsmemberstatesevolvestomeetthechallengesofclimatechange.WetakethisopportunitytoremindthereaderthattheTYNDPScenarioBuildingProcessisaniterativeprocessanditcontinuestoevolvebasedonexternalinfluences.Ascenarioisapictureofthefuture;however,itisalsoareflectionofthepresentknowledgeandtheforeseeablechallengesfacetoday.


1) Tocomplywiththe1.5°CtargetsoftheParisAgree-ment,carbonneutralitymustbeachievedby2040intheelectricitysectorandby2050inallsectorstogeth-er.Additionalmeasurestoreachnetnegativeemissionsafter2050arenecessary.

2) Toachievenet-zeroemissions,innovationinnewandexistingtechnologiesisrequiredto:

–reducethelevelisedcostofenergyfromrenewableenergysources

–increasetheefficiencyandtypeofenduserappliances

–supportrenewableanddecarbonisedgas 4

–developtechnologiesthatwillsupportnegative emissions

3) “Quickwins”areessentialtoreduceglobaltemperaturewarming.Acoaltogasswitchinthepowersectorcansaveatleast85MtCO₂by2025.

4) Tooptimiseconversions,thedirectuseofelectricityisanimportantoption–resultinginprogressiveelectri-ficationthroughoutallscenarios.Gaswillcontinuetoplayanimportantroleinsectorssuchasfeedstockinnon-energyuses,high-temperatureprocesses,transportorinhybridheatingsolutionstomakeoptimaluseofbothinfrastructures.

5) Tomovetowardsalowcarbonenergysystem,signifi-cantinvestmentingasandelectricityrenewabletech-nologiesisrequired.FurtherexpansionofcrossbordertransfercapacitybetweenmarketswillcontributetoensuringrenewableresourcesareefficientlydistributedanddispatchedintheEuropeanelectricitymarket.

4 Decarbonisedgasisnaturalgasforwhichthecarbondioxideisremovedbypre-orpost-combustioncarboncaptureandstorage(CCS) technology.Renewablegasontheotherhandoriginatesfromrenewablesources.Forexample,biomethaneproducedfromorganicmaterialorhydrogen/syntheticmethanefromelectrolysis(P2G).Moreinformationdefinitionscanbefoundintheglossaryorinthemethodologyreport.

5 AccordingtotheP2GandP2Lmodellingapproach,thededicatedwindandsolarissimulatedoutsidetheintegratedelectricitysystem.

6 SeeEUROSTAT(link)

6) WindandsolarenergywillplayanimportantroleintheEuropeanenergysystem,however,thescenariospointoutthatthedecarbonisationofgaswillhaveasignificantparttoplayaswell.Thescenariosshowthatthedecarbonisationofthegascarrierisnecessary,em-ployingtechnologiestoincreasetheshareofrenewablegases,suchasbio-methaneandPower-to-Gas,anddecarbonisedgasesassociatedwithCarbonCaptureandStorage( CCS ).

7) Atpresentgasasanenergycarrierismainlybasedonmethane,asthemaincomponentofnaturalgas.However,inthelonger-termhydrogencouldbecomeanequallyimportantenergycarriertowardsfulldecar-bonisationofthegascarriersin2050.

8) SectorCouplingenablesalinkbetweenenergycarriersandsectors,thusitbecomeskeyincontributingtoachievethedecarbonisationtarget.Inthelong-term,Power-to-GasandPower-to-Liquidwillplayakeyroleinboththeintegrationofelectricityfromvariablere-newablesanddecarbonisingthesupplyofgasandliquidfuels.Thiswouldrequirecloseto800 GWofdedicatedwindandsolar 5in2050.Gas-firedpowerplantswillcontinuetoprovidepeakpowerflexibilitytosupportanenergymixbasedonincreasinglyvariableelectricitygeneration.

9) Today,theEU28importsmostofitsprimaryenergy( ca.55 % 6 ).Decarbonisationwillalsochangethispattern.Inaway,the“insourcing”ofenergyproductionwillreducetheimportdependencytoca.20 %to36 %.However,importsremainanimportantvectorinthefutureener-gysupplymakinguseofcompetitivenaturalresourcesoutsidetheEUterritory.Forgasinparticular,importsharesincreaseinallscenariosuntil2030duetothedecliningnaturalgasproductionintheEU.

Highlights3

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/infographs/energy/bloc-2c.html


4.1 National Trends – the central policy scenario aligned with draft NECPs

7 MostMemberStatessubmittedtheirfinalNECPbytheendof2019.Atthetimeofdraftingthisscenarioreport,someNECPsarestillunderrevisionthough.Forthesecountries,theENTSOstookthedraftNECPsinstead.

Meeting European targets considering current policies

NationalTrendsaimsatreflectingthecommitmentsofeachMemberStatetomeetthetargetssetbytheEuropean

UnionintermsofefficiencyandGHGemissionsreductionfortheenergysector.Atcountrylevel,NationalTrendsisalignedwiththeNECPsoftherespectiveMemberStates 7,whichtranslatetheEuropeantargetstocountryspecificobjectivesfor2030.

Special Focus: Pathways towards a decarbonised economy4

Figure1:NationalTrendsscenariointeractionswithNECPs(FinalNECPs,EUCOscenarios)

National Trends 1.0 / draft scenario report (Nov.2019)

MS Draft NECPS (Dec.2018) EC recommendations (Jun.2019) MS Final NECPs (Dec.2019)

National Trends 2.0 / final scenario report (Mar.2020)

EUCO 32/32.5

https://ec.europa.eu/energy/topics/energy-strategy/national-energy-climate-plans_en

https://ec.europa.eu/energy/data-analysis/energy-modelling/euco-scenarios_en


4.2 COP21 scenarios – a carbon budget approach

8 TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,SpecialReport,2018,https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/

9 “Carbonneutrality(ornetzero)meanshavingabalancebetweenemittingcarbonandabsorbingcarbonfromtheatmosphereincarbonsinks.Removingcarbonoxidefromtheatmosphereandthenstoringitisknownascarbonsequestration.Inordertoachievenetzeroemissions, allworldwidegreenhousegasemissionswillhavetobecounterbalancedbycarbonsequestration”(EuropeanParliament(link)). TheENTSOsconsiderallgreenhousegasemissionsmeasuredintermsoftheircarbondioxideequivalence.

Below +1.5°C at the end of the century with a carbon budgetDistributedEnergy( DE )andGlobalAmbition( GA )( alsoreferredtoas“COP21Scenarios” )scenariosaremeanttoassesssensiblepathwaystoreachthetargetsetbytheParisAgreementfortheCOP21:1.5°Coratleastwellbelow2°Cbytheendofthecentury.ForthepurposeoftheTYNDPscenarios,thistargethasbeentranslatedbyENTSO-EandENTSOGintoacarbonbudgettostaybelow+1.5°Cattheendofthecenturywitha66.7 %probability 8.

A carbon budget defined with environmental organisationsTolimittheglobalwarmingto+1.5°Cbytheendofthecentury,thereisamaximumquantityofGHGtheEU–includingtheenergysystem–canemit.ThisdefinesthecarbonbudgetfortheEU,andtoamorerestrictiveextent,theshareallocatedtotheenergysystemthattheCOP21scenariosconsider.Todefinethecarbonbudgetuntiltheyear2100,ENTSO-EandENTSOGhaveworkedwiththeenvironmentalNGOsRenewableGridInitiativeandClimateActionNetworkEurope.

A carbon neutral energy system by 2050TheotherobjectivesetintheCOP21scenariosistoreachcarbonneutrality 9oftheenergysystemby2050.Thisobjectivethereforeplacesfurtherdemandsonthespeedofdecarbonisationtheenergysystemshouldreach.

GHG emissions compared to 1990 level

20202015 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500

80 %

70 %

60 %

50 %

40 %

30 %

20 %

10 %

Global AmbitionDistributed Energy EU GHG reduction targets/range 2015 NT30

Figure2:GHGemissioninENTSOS’scenarios

https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/headlines/society/20190926STO62270/what-is-carbon-neutrality-and-how-can-it-be-achieved-by-2050


Cumulativenon-CO�emissions 1,534 5,135 8,401 11,311 13,844 16,000 17,780

CumulativeCO�emissions 6,743 21,953 34,686 44,995 53,008 59,075 63,504

Cumulativecreditsfrompre-and post-combustiveCCS

0 0 –136 –679 –1,673 –3,034 –4,676

CumulativecreditsfromBECCS 0 0 0 –32 –128 –356 –808

CumulativecreditsfromLULUCF –627 –2,253 –3,963 –5,757 –7,635 –9,598 –11,644

NetCumulativeCO�eqemissions 7,650 24,835 38,988 49,838 57,416 62,087 64,155

Cumulativenon-CO�emissions 1,534 5,132 8,394 11,298 13,821 15,963 17,725

CumulativeCO�emissions 6,735 21,985 34,486 43,860 50,456 54,784 57,113

Cumulativecreditsfrompre-and post-combustiveCCS

0 0 –56 –260 –642 –1,165 –1,778

CumulativecreditsfromBECCS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

CumulativecreditsfromLULUCF –627 –2,253 –3,963 –5,757 –7,635 –9,598 –11,644

NetCumulativeCO�eqemissions 7,642 24,864 38,860 49,141 55,999 59,984 61,416

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

20,000

10,000

−20,000

−10,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

90,000

100,000

80,000

EU 28 cumulative GHG emissions – Global Ambition

EU 28 cumulative GHG emissions – Distributed Energy

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

20,000

10,000

−20,000

−10,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Figure3:EU28CumulativeEmissionsinCOP21ScenariosinMtCO2


Carbon neutrality can be reached by 2050 within a budget of 61 GtCO� …BothDistributedEnergyandGlobalAmbitionscenariosshowthatacentralisedordecentralisedevolutionoftheenergysystemcanachievecarbonneutralityby2050.Thescenariosalsoshowthat,consideringdifferentdevelop-mentoftechnologies–andstartingfrom2018onwards–theenergysystemcanlimititsemissionstoreachnotmorethan64.2GtCO₂atEUleveluntil2050inGlobalAmbition,andnotmorethan61.4GtCO₂inDistributedEnergy.

10 AccordingtotheP2GandP2Lmodellingapproach,thededicatedwindandsolarissimulatedoutsidetheintegratedelectricitysystem.

… but negative emissions are needed after 2050However,thescenariobudgetdefinedtolimittheglobalwarmingto1.5°Cwitha66.7 %probabilityconsidersthatthecumulativeEUGHGemissionsshouldbelimitedto48.5GtCO₂bytheendofthe21stcentury.Thismeansnetnegativeemissionsof15.7GtCO₂havetobeachievedbe-tween2050and2100incaseofGlobalAmbition,providedtheEUiscarbonneutralin2050.ForDistributedEnergy,duetolowercumulativeemissionsuntil2050,12.9GtCO₂ofnetnegativeemissionsareneededtoreachthe1.5°Ctargetby2100.

4.3 Sector-Coupling – an enabler for ( full ) decarbonisation

ForENTSOGandENTSO-E,sectorcouplingdescribesinterlinkagesbetweenenergycarriers,relatedtechnolo-giesandinfrastructure.Majorprocessesinthisregardaregas-firedpowergeneration,Power-to-Gas( P2G )aspartofthebroaderPower-to-Xandhybriddemandtechnologies.

ENTSOs’scenariosaredependentonfurtherdevelopmentofsectorcoupling,withouttheseinterlinkagesahighorevenfulldecarbonisationintheenergysectorwillnotbereached.

Assumingaswitchfromcarbon-intensivecoaltonaturalgasin2025,aminimumof85MtCO₂couldbeavoidedinthepowergeneration.Withincreasingsharesofrenewableanddecarbonisedgases,gas-firedpowerplantsbecomethemain“back-up”forvariableRESinthelong-term.DistributedEnergyevenshowsafurtherneedforCCS

forgaspowerplantstoreachitsambitioustargetoffulldecarbonisationinpowergenerationby2040.

Ontheotherhand,P2GbecomesanenablerfortheintegrationofvariableRESandanoptiontodecarbonisethegassupply.Hydrogenandsyntheticmethaneorliquidsallowforcarbon-neutralenergyuseinthefinalsectors.DistributedEnergyisthescenariowiththehighestneedforP2GandP2L,requiring1,460 TWhofdedicatedpowergeneration 10peryearwithmorethan490 GWofcapacitiesforwindandsolarin2040toproducerenewablegas.

SectorcouplinginNationalTrends,withtheassumptionthatP2Ggenerationislimitedtosubstituteotherwisecur-tailedelectricitysupply,amountsto27 TWhwith22GWofP2Gtoproducerenewablegas.

< 2050 2050 > 2050 Total

Energyandnon-energyrelatedCO�emissions 57.1

Carbon-Neutrality

Additionalmeasuresneeded,e. g.: LULUCF,

BECCS,CCS,DAC

Non-CO�GHGemissions(includingmethaneandFluorinatedgases)* 17.7

Carbonsinks** −13.4

Netcumulative emissions 61.4 −13

EU28carbonbudgetsharebasedonitspopulation 48.5GtCO�

*DataformethaneandfluorinatedgasesemissionsistakenfromtheEuropeanCommission’smostambitious1.5TECHand 1.5LIFE scenarios (average)aspublishedinthe“ACleanPlanetforall”-Study(link).

**DataforLULUFCistakenfromtheEuropeanCommission’smostambitious1.5TECHand 1.5LIFEscenarios(average)aspublishedinthe “ACleanPlanetforall”-Study(link).

Table1:CumulativeemissionsandrequirednetnegativeemissionsinDistributedEnergy

https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en

https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en


ToensureconsistencybetweensuccessiveTYNDPreports,itisnecessarytopreservethescenariosessencetosomedegree.Therefore,the2020scenariosbuildonthe2018scenarios.However,theenergylandscapeiscontinuouslyevolving,andscenariosmustkeepupwiththemaindriversandtrendsinfluencingtheenergysystem.

Storyline drivers

ENTSOGandENTSO-Eidentifiedtwomaindriverstodeveloptheirscenariostorylines:Decarbonisationandcentralisation/decentralisation.DecarbonisationreferstothedeclineintotalGHGemissionswhilecentralisation/decentralisationreferstothespatialset-upoftheenergysystem,suchastheshareoflarge/smallscaleelectricitygeneration( offshorewindvs.solarPV )ortheshareofin-digenousrenewablegases( biomethaneandP2G )vs.shareofdecarbonisedgasimports( eitherpre-orpost-combus-

tive ).Figure4illustratestherelationofthetwokeydriversforallthreescenarios.

Fortheshortandmedium-term,thescenariosincludea“BestEstimate”scenario( bottom-updataincludingameritordersensitivitybetweencoalandgasin2025 ).Forthelongerterm,theyincludethreedifferentstorylinestoreflectincreasinguncertainties.

- For2020and2025,allscenariosarebasedonbot-tom-updatafromtheTSOscalledthe“BestEstimate”ScenarioandreflectingcurrentnationalandEuropeanregulations.Asensitivityanalysisregardingthemeritorderofcoalandgasinthepowersectorisincludedfor2025followingstakeholderinputregardingtheun-certaintyonprices,evenintheshortterm.Thesearedescribedas2025CoalBeforeGas( CBG )and2025GasBeforeCoal( GBC ).

Scenario description and storylines5


- NationalTrendskeepsitsbottom-upcharacteristics,takingintoaccountTSOs’bestknowledgeofthegasandelectricitysectorsincompliancewiththeNECPs.Country-specificdatawascollectedfor2030and2040( whenavailableforelectricity )incompliancewiththeTYNDPtimeframe.Forgas,furtherassumptionshavebeenmadetocomputethedemandfor2050onanEU28-level.

- DistributedEnergyandGlobalAmbitionarebuiltasfullenergyscenarios( allsectors,allfuels )withtop-downmethodologies.Bothscenariosaimatreachingthe1.5°CtargetoftheParisAgreementfollowingthecarbonbudgetapproach.Theyaredevelopedonacountry-leveluntil2040andonanEU28-leveluntil2050.

Thestorylinesfor2030and2040/2050are:

- National Trends ( NT )isthecentralbottom-upscenarioinlinewiththeNECPsinaccordancewiththegovernanceoftheenergyunionandclimateactionrules,aswellasonfurthernationalpoliciesandclimatetargetsalreadystatedbytheEUmemberstates.Followingitsfunda-mentalprinciples,NTiscompliantwiththeEU’s2030ClimateandEnergyFramework( 32 %renewables,32.5 %energyefficiency )andEC2050Long-TermStrategywithanagreedclimatetargetof80–95 %CO₂reductioncom-paredto1990levels.

National Trends relies on data provided by the latest submissions of country specific NECPs for 2030 at the freeze date of the data. Where, in particular for 2040,

NECPs do not provide sufficient information or nec-essary granularity, National Trends is based on TSOs’ best knowledge in compliance with national long-term climate and energy strategies.

- Global Ambition ( GA )isascenariocompliantwiththe1.5°CtargetoftheParisAgreementalsoconsideringtheEU’sclimatetargetsfor2030.Itlooksatafuturethatisledbydevelopmentincentralisedgeneration.Economiesofscaleleadtosignificantcostreductionsinemergingtechnologiessuchasoffshorewind,butalsoimportsofenergyfromcompetitivesourcesareconsideredasaviableoption.

- Distributed Energy ( DE ) isascenariocompliantwiththe1.5°CtargetoftheParisAgreementalsoconsideringtheEU’sclimatetargetsfor2030.Itembracesade-central-isedapproachtotheenergytransition.Akeyfeatureofthescenarioistheroleoftheenergyconsumer( prosum-er ),whoactivelyparticipatesintheenergymarketandhelpstodrivethesystem’sdecarbonisationbyinvestinginsmall-scalesolutionsandcircularapproaches.Basedonstakeholders’feedbackontheDraftScenarioReport,apartofbiomassusageshasbeentransferredtobothP2LanddirectelectricityconsumptionresultinginanupdatedStorylineCentralMatrix.Theupdatedscenar-iocomesverycloseto1.5TECH/LIFEscenariooftheuropeanCommissionformostoftheparameters.

FormoreinformationonthedevelopmentoftheScenarioStorylinesandhowthestakeholderfeedbackhasbeentakenintoaccountpleaserefertosection10.

Figure4:KeydriversofScenarioStorylines

Cent

ralis

atio

n

Game Changer &Cost Reduction

Management

Game Changer &Cost Reduction

Management

STATUS QUO

De-

cent

ralis

atio

n

Decarbonisation Ambition Level

40 %

40 %

100 %

100 %

80 %

80 %

60 %

60 %

50 %

50 %

CENTRALISEDINNOVATION

DE-CENTRALISEDINNOVATION

20 %

2050

2050

2030

2030

2025

2030

100 %

2040

2050

2040

2040

Lenght of arc reflects the range of possible outcomes

Scenario Year & Scenario Button

2040

National Trends

National TrendsNECP alignment

2025 Merit Order SwitchGas before Coal

Global Ambition

Distributed Engery


Category Criteria 2040 Scenarios

National Trends

Global Ambition

Distributedion Energy

Primary mix Coal -- --- ---

Oil -- --- ---

Nuclear -- -- --

Hydro o o o

Geothermal o + ++

Biomass* o ++ +

Natural gas - -- ---

Windonshore ++ +++ +++

Windoffshore +++ +++ ++

Solar ++ + +++

WindforP2GandP2L** o + +++**

SolarforP2GandP2L + + +++

ImportedGreenLiquidFuel + ++ +

EnergyImports - -- ---

High temperature Heat Totaldemand(allenergy) o - -

ElectricityDemand + + ++

GasDemand + ++ o

Low temperature Heat Totaldemand(allenergy) - -- --

ElectricityDemand + ++ +++

GasDemand - - --

Transport Totaldemand - -- --

ElectricityDemand + ++ +++

Power and Lighting GasDemand + ++ +

ElectricityDemand o - -

CCS CCS o +++ +

Table2:StorylineCentralMatrix

Change from today

––– –– – o + ++ +++

Notavailable Moderate Reduction

Low Reduction Stable Lowgrowth Moderate

growth Highgrowth

*biomassuseinNationalTrendsisveryclosetocurrentuseandtheevolutionhasbeenreducedto”Stable”comparedtotheDraftScenarioReport.ForDistributedEnergyscenario,thesubstitutionofbiomassbydirectelectrificationandP2Lhasresultedinanupdateoftheevolutionfrom“Moderategrowth”to“Lowgrowth”.

**ForDistributedEnergyscenario,thesubstitutionofbiomassbydirectelectrificationandP2LsuppliedwithadditionalREShasresultedinanupdateoftheevolutionfrom“Moderategrowth”to“Highgrowth”.


Scenario Building Central Matrix

TheScenarioBuildingCentralMatrixisatoolusedtoiden-tifythekeyelementsofthestorylines.TheCentralMatrixenablescreationofscenariosthatareconsistentalongapathway,yetdifferentiatedfromotherstorylines.

TheCentralMatrixisatablethatcanprovideanEU-widequalitativeoverviewofkeydriversfortheEuropeanenergysystemin2050.Thematrixuses+/–indicatorstoshowhowprimaryenergymixandfinalenergyusechangecom-paredtosectorsareassumedtochangefromtoday.Itisimportanttonotethatcountryleveland/orregionaldiffer-enceswillbepresent,whencomparedtotheEU-28figures,thedifferencesaredrivenbyfactorssuchasnationalpolicy,geographicaland/ortechnicalresourceconstraints.

Tounderstandthematrixnotation,thefollowingassump-tionsmustbeconsidered:

- Thegrowthorreductionindicationsareinrelationtowhatisseentoday,butalsoinrelationtotheratesob-servedwithinthatcategoryincomparisontotheotherscenarios.Forexample,comparedtotoday,solargener-ationisexpectedtoincreasesignificantlyinallscenariosfromtoday,butonlyreceivesa+++inDistributedEnergy.

- Equally,growthandreductionratesacrossthedifferentcategoriesarenotdirectlycomparable.Forexample,twocategorieswith++ratingmaydiffersignificantlyintheiractualpercentageincreasefromtoday,basedonthestartingpointandultimatepotential.

WherestorylineparametershavebeenupdatedbasedonconsultationfeedbackontheDraftScenarioReport,theinitialvaluesarementionedasfootnotes.

FurtherinformationonhowtoreadtheCentralMatrixcanbefoundintheannexdocumentScenarioBuildingGuidelines.

Figure5:TheTYNDP2020ScenariosaredefinedbythreeStorylines

2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

n/a 19 %

n/a 20 %

n/a 8 %

n/a n/a

1 % 1 %

1 % 1 %

78 % 85 %

29 % 42 % n/a21 % 16 % n/a12 % 15% n/a

0 % 1 % n/a

n/a n/a n/a

4 % 12 % n/a

4 % 13 % n/a

84 % 83 % n/a

Domestic RES Gas Biomethane

RES-E solar

RES-E hydro

Decarbonisation of gas supply

RES-E wind

Domestic RES Gas Power-to-gas

Gas import share

Direct electrification

29 % 42 % 54 %

32 % 45 % 50 %

21 % 21 % 23 %

21 % 16 % 29 %

14 % 18 % 19 %

10 % 13 % 15 %

3 % 17 % 32 %

0 % 6 % 11 %

29 % 45 % 54 %

27 % 35 % 41 %

6 % 18 % 33 %

5 % 12 % 19 %

12 % 47 % 86 %

11 % 46 % 86 %

79 % 60 % 35 %

83 % 78 % 70 %

National TrendsBest Estimate

Distributed Energy

Global Ambition


Thelevelofdetailprovidedforeachscenariodependsontheapproachtobuildingthedataset.

TheNationalTrendsbottom-upcollectionusesgasandelectricitydemanddatafromtheTSOsalignedwiththeNECPs.Thefinalenergydemandsuppliedbyotherprimaryfuels,suchasforheatandtransport,isnotinfocusoftheTSOdatacollection;thereforesectorbysectorenergydemandsplitscannotbereported.ThebottomupdataisbasedonmemberstateNECPs,thisunderpinstheassump-tionthatthebottomupgasandelectricitydemanddata

contributesfairlytowardstheEU28CleanEnergyPackagetargetsfor2030;32 %renewableenergyalongwith32.5 %energyefficiency.

Thenewtop-downscenariobuildingapproachprovidesENTSOGandENTSO-Ewithnewopportunitiestoreportontotalprimaryenergyandthesectorsplitsforfinalen-ergydemand.Thetop-downenergymodellingapproachevolvesinfiveyearstepsfromhistoricalenergybalancedata,soitispossibletoreportonthesectoralfinalenergydemandovertime.

Scenario Results 6


6.1 Demand

6.1.1 Final Energy Demand

11 https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/energy-efficiency/targets-directive-and-rules/eu-targets-energy-efficiency

ThechartbelowshowsthetotalenergysectordemandforthestorylinesDistributedEnergyandGlobalAmbition.AkeydriverinhowthefinalenergydemandvolumesarederivedisaEU28targetspecifyinga32.5 %reductioninfinaluseenergydemandby2030comparedto2005.ThefinalusedemandfortheEU28accordingtoDEE2012/27/EU( 10309/18 ) 11shouldbearound11,100 TWh.Thefinaluseenergydemandfiguredoesnotincludetheenergyrequirementfornon-energyuses.Whenthisadjustmentistakenintoaccount,finalenergydemandin2030forDistributedEnergyis10,500 TWhandGlobalAmbition10,600 TWh.Bothscenariosachievein2050highereffi-ciencygainabove50 %,higherthan1.5TECHandLIFELTSscenarios.

Finalenergydemandcanachieveambitiousreductionsinenergyvolumeduetochangestoenduserapplicationsandenergyefficiencymeasures.Thescenariostorylinescapturethemessuchas,butnotlimitedto:

- Convertingfromlessefficientheatingoptionstoheatpumptechnologies,suchaselectricorhybrid( combinedgasandelectricityusage )airorgroundheatpumps,

- Switchingfromlowefficiencytransportoptionstomoreefficientmodesoftransport

- Energyefficiencyproductstandards;continuetodeliverenergyefficiencygainsforend-userappliances

- Inthebuiltenvironmentthermalinsulationreducesdemandforheat,whileensuringcomfortlevelaremaintained

- Behaviouralchangeswhereconsumersactivelyreducedemandeitherbyutilisingmorepublictransportormodifyingheatingandcoolingcomfortlevels.

Althoughoverallfinalenergydemandisdecreasing,gasandelectricityshowdifferenttrends.Forgasatleastuntil2025aswellasforelectricityinthelong-run,theenergydemandgrowthisdrivenbyfactorssuchasunderlyinggrossdomesticproduct( GDP )growth,additionalenergydemandfromlowtemperatureheatandtransportsectorsasthesesectorsswitchawayfromcarbon-intensivefuels,suchascoalandoil.ThestorylinesassumethatatanEUlevelunderlyingGDPgrowthistemperedbythestrongenergyefficiencymeasures,sothatfinalenergydemand( whichincludeselectricitydemand )isreducedtomeettheEU2832.5 %energyefficiencytargetfor2030.

TheNationalTrendsenergyfiguresarebasedontheTSOdatacompatiblewiththelatestavailabledatafrommemberstateNECPs.Theannualenergyvolumescomefromnationalforecasts,thataresummeduptoprovideinformationatEU28level.

TWh

2005

Distributed EnergyDistributed Energy Global AmbitionGlobal AmbitionHistoricHistoric

2015 2030 2050

Transport

0

2,000

6,000

4,000

8,000

14,000

18,000

16,000

12,000

10,000

Residential Tertiary Industry Final energy demand EU Efficiency Target 2030

Figure6:FinalenergydemandinCOP21 scenarios

Note: All gas figures are expressed in gross calorific value (GCV) except when stated otherwise in net calorific value (NCV). Where needed, external scenario figures have been converted to gross calorific values by applying a factor of 110 %. For the definition of gross and net calorific value please refer to the glossary section at the end of this document.

https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/energy-efficiency/targets-directive-and-rules/eu-targets-energy-efficiency


6.1.2 Direct Electricity Demand 12

12 DirectElectricityDemandreferstotheelectricityenduseinsectorssuchasresidential,tertiary,transportandindustry

Thescenariosshowthathigherdirectelectrificationoffinalusedemandacrossallsectorsresultsinanincreaseintheneedforelectricitygeneration.

DistributedEnergyisthescenariostorylinewiththehigh-estannualelectricitydemandreachingaround4,000 TWhin2040andaround4,300 TWhin2050.TheresultsforscenariosshowthatthereisthepotentialforyearonyeargrowthforEU28directelectricitydemand.Thetablepro-videsannualEU-28electricitydemandvolumesandtheassociatedgrowthrateforthespecifiedperiods.

Thegrowthratesforthestorylineshowthatby2040NationalTrendsiscentrallypositionedintermsofgrowthbetweenthetwomore-ambitioustop-downscenariosDistributedEnergyandGlobalAmbition.ThemainreasonfortheswitchingrowthratesisduetothefactthatGlob-alambitionhasthestrongestlevelsofenergyefficiency,whereasforDistributedEnergystrongelectricitydemandgrowthislinkedtohighelectrificationfromhighuptakeofelectricvehiclesandheatpumps( inhouseholdsanddis-trictheating ),overlayingelectricalenergyefficiencygains.

Peakelectricitydemandisdefinedasthehighestsinglehourlypowerdemand( GW )withinagivenyear.Peakdemandgrowthinthefuturewillbeimpactedinanumberofways,forexample;

- Therolloutofsmartmetering,thesemayprovidemoreopportunitiesforintelligentorefficientenergydemandpatternsbyconsumersintime

- Highgrowthratesforpassengerelectricvehiclesprobablyleadtopressuresontheelectricalgrid,bothatdistributionandtransmissionlevels.Thescenariosassumethatthereisaninherentlevelofsmartchargingthatshiftsconsumerbehaviourawayfrompeakperiods.

- Electricandhybridheatpumps.Thedemandtimeseriescreatedareweatherdependent.Theresultsshowthatelectricheatpumpscanaddpressuretodemand;i. e.thereismoreheatdemandwhentheoutsidetem-peraturesarelow.Thereareanumberofoptionstosupportdirectelectricheating,suchas,thermalstorageorhybridheatingsystems.Forexample:Hybridsystemscanhelpmitigatetheadverseimpactontheelectricitygridbyswitchingtogasduringextremecoldperiods( typicallylessthan5°C ).

- Newpeakdemandchallengesmayresultfromaddition-alnewbaseloaddemand,suchasdatacentresassumingthatdigitalisationincreasesglobally.

Figure7:Directelectricitydemandperscenario(EU28)

Scenario EU-28 Annual Electricity Demand (TWh) Compound Annual Growth Rate

2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 2015–2030 2030–2040 2040–2050

HistoricalDemand 3,086

National Trends 3,199 3,237 3,554 3,696 0.3 % 0.6 % 0.4 %

GlobalAmbition 3,213 3,426 3,478 0.3 % 0.6 % 0.2 %

DistributedEnergy 3,422 4,029 4,269 0.7 % 1.5 % 0.7 %

2015

Historical Demand

20302025 2040 2050

3,100

3,3003,200

3,000

3,4003,5003,6003,7003,8003,9004,0004,1004,200

4,4004,300

4,500

National Trends Global Ambition Distributed Energy

Annual Demand TWh

Table3:AnnualEU-28electricitydemandvolumesandtheassociatedgrowthrate


ThehourlydemandchartsshowthatthehistoricaleffectsofGDPandenergyefficiencycontinueinfluencingelec-tricitydemandgrowthinindustry,tertiaryandresidentialsectors.Thescenariosshowthatdirectelectrificationoftransportandheatingsectorsstartstohaveasignificantimpactonthehourlyprofiles.

Itisclearfromthefuturedemandprofilecompositionthattheimpactofelectricvehiclesisnoticeablethroughouttheyear.Theimpactforheatpumpsishoweverlargelydependentontheoutsideweathertemperature.Naturally,

thereisareduceddemandforheatinthesummer,butelectrifiedwaterheatingremainspartofthecompositionduringsummerperiods.

Peakdemandforelectricitygrowsbetween2030and2040foreachstoryline.Theelectrificationofheatandtransportaretwosignificantdriversingrowthofelectricitypeakdemand.ThestorylineassumptionsmeanthatGDPrelatedpeakde-mandgrowthismoderatedbyenergyefficiency.Theimpactofdemandsideresponseonpeakelectricityismodelledasapriceddemandsideresponseinthepowermarketanalyses.

Electricity Demand (GW)

0

Water Heating

1 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Hour of Day

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 233

2.0

6.0

4.0

–2.0

0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

Electric Heat pumps Historical

Hybrid Heating Industrial demand Growth Residential and Tertiary Growth Electric Cars Passenger TrainsBuses

Winter hourly demand profile for a single market node

Electricity Demand (GW)

0

Water Heating

1 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Hour of Day

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 233

2.0

6.0

4.0

–2.0

0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

Electric Heat pumps Historical

Hybrid Heating Industrial demand Growth Residential and Tertiary Growth Electric Cars Passenger TrainsBuses

Summer hourly demand profile for a single market node

Figure8:Exampleofwinterhourlydemandprofileforasinglemarketnode–Impactofdirectelectrificationinheatingand transport sectors

Figure9:Exampleofsummerhourlydemandprofileforasinglemarketnode–Impactofdirectelectrificationinheatingandtransport sectors


TheNationalTrendsdemandprofilesaredevelopedfromtheTSOsinputbasedonlatestavailablememberstateNECPsandwhereavailablenationalprojectionsfor2040.Forthetop-downscenariosENTSOGandENTSO-Eas-sumeahighuptakeofsmartchargingfortransport,whichwillmoderatepeakdemandgrowthrates.Thedemandprofilesaccountforoutsidetemperatureandtheimpactonpeakdemand;thisisimportantastheshareofelectricitywithintheheatingsectorincreases.

Forthetop-downscenariosthereisrationalspreadinpeakdemandgrowthratesbetween2030and2040.GlobalAmbitionisthescenariowiththelowestlevelsofheatpumps,coupledhigherenergyefficiencyresultsinthisscenariointhelowestpeakdemandgrowthbetween2030&2040.InDistributedEnergythemaindriverforhigherpeakdemandisthehigherrateofelectrificationacrossallsectors,however,itisimportanttonotethiscanatthesametimeprovideadditionalopportunitiesfordemandsideresponse,suchasvehicletogridordemandflexibilitiesatdomesticlevel.

ThepeakdemandgrowthrateinNationalTrendsbetween2030and2040indicatesa1.0 %yearonyeargrowthinpeakdemand.ThegrowthrateforNationalTrendsliesfirmlyinbetweenthedemandgrowthratesforDistributedEnergyandGlobalAmbition.Thespreadinpeakdemandprovidesanopportunityforallthreescenariostoenhancetheunderstandingonthe long-termimpactsfortheEuropeantransmissionsystem.

Direct electrification of transport and heat

ElectrificationofheatandtransportaretwokeyareasthatarenecessarytodecarbonisetheEuropeanenergysystem.TheinformationreceivedfromtheTSOsandtheCOP21scenariosshowthatelectricvehiclesandheatpumpshavethegreatestimpactonelectricitydemand.Thechartsshowhowthescenarioelectricvehiclesandheatpumpscomparetoexternalscenariosreferencedinthechartas“range”.

ThescenariosaimtoreduceemissionsinlinewiththeEuropeantargetsandCOP21pathways.Toachieveam-bitiousemissionreductionintheheatingsector,ashiftawayfromfossilfuelsisrequired.Thescenariosshowthatmovingawayfromoilandcoalisaquickwintoreduceemissionsintheheatingsector.Thetop-downandbottomupscenarioshighlighttheneedforconsumerstochangehowtheyuseheatintheirhomesandbusinesses.Thescenariosrequirealargeshifttowardselectricandhybridheatpumps,thesetechnologiesbothreduceprimaryenergydemandandfinaluseenergydemandduetotheimpactofheatpumpco-efficientofperformance.Heatpumptechnologiesareusedforspaceheatingandsanitywaterheating.

DistributedEnergyshowsthehighestelectrificationwith245Millionelectricvehiclesandaround50millionheatpumpsby2040.ThevolumesrelatingtoelectricvehiclesandheatpumpsprovideinsightintowhytheDistributedEnergyelectricitydemandreaches4,000 TWhby2040.

GlobalAmbitionisascenariowherethereisstronguptakeofelectricvehiclesreachingaround200millionby2040butlowerheatpumpuptakeataround25milliondevices.Thescenarioassumedmoreuptakeofalternativelowcarbonheatingtoensurethattheemissionslevelsforthescenariosareachieved.

National Trends

Distributed Energy

Global Ambition

2025Max 570,904

Average 520,101

2030Max 587,499 594,554 559,687

Average 534,324 547,007 516,480

2040Max 632,982 665,756 574,733

Average 576,844 625,990 533,988

CAGR (2015–2030) 0.54 % 1.01 % –0.14 %

CAGR (2030–2040) 0.77 % 1.36 % 0.33 %

Figure10:Peakelectricitydemandperscenario(EU28)

GW

Gobal Ambition Average Max

2015 2016 2017 2018 2025 20402030

450

400

500

550

600

650

700

National Trends Average Max

Distributed Energy Average Max

Historic Data

Table4:AnnualpeakdemandandCARGperscenario


TheNationalTrendsscenarioisbasedonTSOdataandshowsthatthereisalowerlevelofambitionforelectrifi-cationofthetransportsectoraround100millionelectricvehicleswitharound60millionheatpumpsby2040.Thescenarionumbersforelectricvehiclesandelectricandhybridheatpumpstechnologiesareshownonthe

13 Totalgasdemandcanalsobereferredtoas“GrossInlandConsumption”ofgasasdonebyEurostat(link)

charts.Theshadedarearepresentsarangeofminimumandmaximumvaluesfromthirdpartystudies,seesection8forfurtherinformation.Thechartsshowthattheinputassumptionsforheatpumpsandelectricvehiclesnumbersliewithincrediblevalues.

6.1.3 Gas Demand

Totalgasdemand 13issplitupintofinaldemand( residential,tertiary,industryincl.non-energyusesandtransport )anddemandforpowergeneration.Whereasscenarioscanshowadecreaseorincreaseforthetotalgasdemand,thedifferentsectorscanevolveindependentlyandindifferentdirections.

By2030,NationalTrendshasthelowesttotalgasdemand.Incontrarytothat,GlobalAmbitionandDistributedEnergyreachhigherdecarbonisationlevelsoftheenergysystemwithmoregas.Thisisduetothreemainreasons:

- fasterswitchfromcarbon-intensivefuels,suchascoalandoiltogas

- highersharesofrenewableanddecarbonisedgasesinthegasmix

- andinparticularDistributedEnergyprojectsahigherelectricitydemandinpowergenerationduetoahigherelectricitydemand

Whencomparingthesectoralsplit,allscenariosprojectadecreaseintheresidentialandtertiarysector,buttheuptakeofgasdemandinthetransportsectorcancompensatepartsofitintheCOP21Scenarios.Thesetrendsremainuntil2040,resultinginlowerdemandforallscenarios:DistributedEnergydecreaseseventoca.4,000 TWh( –20 %comparedtotoday’slevel ).Onthe

otherside,industryshowsamorestabledemanddevelop-mentandgasdemandfortransportincreasesthroughoutallscenarios,mostsignificantlyinGlobalAmbition.

Itisworthmentioning,thatthedevelopmentoffinalgasdemanddiffersfromregiontoregion.Duetoahighde-pendencyoncoal,gasdemandforheatingratherincreasesinCentralandEasternEurope,whereasotherregionsheadtowardsmoreelectrificationintheprivateheatingsector.Togiveanexamplecoalhasashareofupto50 %intheheatingsectorand80 %inthepowergenerationinPoland.

Aswitchfromcarbon-intensivecoaltonaturalgaswithlowercarbonintensityby2025,resultsin186 TWhadditionalgasdemand.However,thiswouldleadtoemissionsreductionintheelectricitygenerationofaminimumof85MtCO₂.Atleastuntil2030gasdemandforpowergenerationisincreasingwiththelevelofdecarbonisation( includingafastcoal-phaseout )andelectricitydemand.Therefore,DistributedEnergyasthescenariowiththehighestelectricitydemandhasupto26 %moregasdemandforpowergenerationthanNationalTrendswiththelowestgasdemandforelectricitygeneration.Thepicturechangesfor2040,wherealsoNationalTrendshasaccomplishedthecoalphase-outbutshowslowerrenewablepowergeneration.Asaresult,NationalTrendshasthehighestgasdemandforpowerin2040.

Figure11:Numberofelectricandhybridvehiclesandheatpumps(excl.districtheating)comparedtoarangebasedonanalysisof thirdpartyreports

2025

Range of external scenarios

2030 20502040


Mio. Number of EVs and PHEVs

2025 2030 20502040

Mio. Number of HP and HHP

0

50

100

150

300

250

200

350

0

50

100

150

300

250

200

350

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/38154/4956233/RAMON-CODED-ENERGY-20150212.pdf/4814055b-de02-404a-b8e0-909fb82cbd54


Peak demand generally follows the annual trends

Thehighdaily-peakand2-weekdemandrequirements 14 reflectthechangingnatureofresidentialandcommercialdemand,astemperature-dependingspaceheatingtypical-lydrivespeakgasconsumption.Asaresult,finaldemandforpeakdayand2-weekdecreasesinallscenariosduetoefficiencymeasureswithanevenfurtherdecreaseinDistributedEnergy,duetoahigherpenetrationofelectricalheatpumps.Thedecreaseinfinaldemandisforthemostpartcompensatedbyanincreasingpeakdemandforgasinpowergenerationasthemainback-upofvariablerenewables.NationalTrendsobservesthemostlimitedchangeasconsumershaveinvestedinmoretradition-altechnologies,althoughtheyareconsideredlessefficient.

The gas system can support the high development of variable RES

ThesignificantdevelopmentofvariableelectricityREScapacitiesinbothscenariosinfluencestheroleofthegasinfrastructuretoback-upthevariablepowergeneration.WithsignificantvariableREScapacitiesintheenergysys-tem,thegasdemandmaybeimpactedbyDunkelflauteeventsmoreoftenandmoreintensely.

14 The“2-weekdemand”referstoatwo-weekperiodduringacoldspellwithverylowtemperaturesresultinginhighheatingdemand

TWh (GCV)

BE 2020

CBG GBC NT GA 2030 2040 20502025

DE NT GA DE GA DE

R&C Industrial Transport

Historic Demand Average

Power Final

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Figure12:SectoralbreakdownoftotalgasdemandinEU28

GWh/d (GCV)

Peak

2 W

eek

DF

Peak

2 W

eek

DF

Peak

2 W

eek

DF

Peak

2 W

eek

DF

Peak

2 W

eek

DF

Peak

2 W

eek

DF

Peak

2 W

eek

DF

Peak

2 W

eek

DF

Peak

2 W

eek

DF

BE 2020 2025 CBG 2025 GBC NT 2030 GA 2030 DE 2030 NT 2040 GA 2040 DE 2040

Final Demand

0

10,000

5,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000Power Yearly Average

Figure13:Gasdemandinhighdemandcases(Peak,2-Weekcoldspell,Dunkelflaute*) *“KalteDunkelflaute”orjust“Dunkelflaute”(Germanfor“colddarkdoldrums”)expessesaclimatecase,whereinadditiontoa2-weekcoldspell,variableRESelectricitygenerationislowduetothelackofwindandsunlight.


Decarbonisation of the energy system comes with an uptake of the hydrogen demand

Asaconsequenceofanincreasingvolumeofhydrogengeneration,theCOP21scenariosconsidercontrastedde-velopmentofthehydrogendemandthatcouldmaterialisetomakeuseofthispotential:

- DistributedEnergyconsidersahigherpenetrationofP2GtechnologieswithsignificantvolumesproducedmorelocallyandthusasimilardevelopmentoftheHydrogendemand.

- GlobalAmbitionconsidersamorecentraliseddecarbon-isationwheretheincreasingdemandismainlysuppliedbypre-combustivehydrogenproduction.

TWh (GCV)

2020CurrentNormalised

Demand

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Figure14:TotalmethaneandhydrogendemandinCOP21scenarios


6.2 Supply

6.2.1 Primary energy supply

FortheCOP21Scenarios,theoverallenergymixbecomescarbon-neutralby2050.Tofullydecarbonize,bothCOP21ScenariosregisterasignificantincreaseinbothrenewablesandfurtherCO₂removaltechnologies,whilereducingprimaryenergydemand.Whereasbothscenariosreachsimilarlevelsofprimaryenergydemanddecreaseofaround40 %comparedto2015,theRESshareinGlobalAmbitionreaches69 %by2050butisstilloutbidbyDistributedEnergywithaRESshareof82 %.

Thevastmajorityofenergystemsfromrenewables.In2050,wind,solarandhydrocoverroughly52 %ofprimaryenergydemandinEuropewithinthescenarioDistributedEnergyandabout34 %inGlobalAmbition,whilenuclearasaCO₂neutralgenerationsourcecontributesbetween6and9 %.Biomassandenergyfromwastematerialscontributesignificantly–inDistributedEnergytheycover22 %andinGlobalAmbition28 %oftheprimaryenergymix.

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Figure16:PrimaryenergymixandRESshareinGlobalAmbition(EU28)

Figure15:PrimaryenergymixandRESshareinDistributedEnergy(EU28)


Biomasscanbedirectlyusedinindustrialprocesses,orasfeedstocktoproducebiofuelsorbiomethane–bothcanbeusedinallsectors,withamainfocusinpowergeneration,transportandheating.SincecoalisassumedtobephasedoutinEuropeby2040,theremainingdemandiscoveredbyoil,nuclearandgasimports.Theincreaseinrenewableenergyproductionresultsindeclining“all-energy”import

15 Forthecalculationofimportshares,itisassumedthatalloilandnuclearenergyisimportedin2050.

shares,from55 %to60 %nowadays,toca.18 %inDistrib-utedEnergyand31 %inGlobalAmbition 15.

AkeyenablerforthetransitionistheconversionofwindandsolarpowertoP2GandP2L,whichbalancesthevaria-bleelectricitysupplytoenergydemandandallowsutiliza-tionofenergysourcedfromrenewableelectricityinfinalconsumptionsectorswhenthereisnoelectricitydemand.

6.2.2 Electricity

IntheCOP21Scenarios,theelectricitymixbecomescar-bonneutralby2040.InEU-28,electricityfromrenewablesourcesmeetsupto64 %ofpowerdemandin2030and78 %in2040.Variablerenewables( windandsolar )playakeyroleinthistransition,astheirshareintheelectricitymixgrowstoupto44 %by2030and61 %by2040.

Theremainingrenewablecapacityconsistsofbiofuelsandhydro.AllfiguresstatedaboveexcludepowerdedicatedforP2Xuse,whichisassumedtobeentirelyfromcurtailedRES,andnewlybuildrenewablesthatarenotgrid-connect-ed,andthereforenotconsideredinthisrepresentation.

There is an increase in renewable capacity foreseen in all scenarios ……butthespeedoftheuptakeiscontingentonthestory-lineassociatedwitheachscenario.

DistributedEnergyisthescenariowiththehighestinvest-mentingenerationcapacity,drivenmainlybythehighestlevelofelectricaldemand.DistributedEnergymainlyfo-cusesonthedevelopmentofsolarPV.Thistechnologyhas

thelowestloadfactor,asresultsolarPVinstalledcapacitywillbehighercomparedtooffshoreoronshorewindtomeetthesameenergyrequirement.Thescenarioshowsalargergrowthinonshorewindafter2030.

In2030,solarcovers14 %ofthetotalelectricalenergyandwindcovers29 %.In2040,solarcovers18 %oftheelectricalenergyand41 %comesfromwind.Thescenarioalsoshowstheleastamountofelectricityproducedfromnuclearoutofthethreescenarios,providing16 %ofelec-tricityin2030and10 %in2040.

GlobalAmbitionhasalowerelectricitydemand,withageneraltrendofhighernuclearandreducedpricesofoffshorewind.Consequently,thecapacityrequiredforthisscenarioisthelowestasmoreenergyisproducedperMWofinstalledcapacityinoffshorewind.Nuclearprovides19 %ofenergyin2030andreducingto12 %in2040.In2030,solarcovers10 %ofthetotalelectricalenergyandwindcovers31 %.In2040,solarcovers13 %oftheelectricalenergyand44 %comesfromwind.

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NationalTrendsisthenationalpolicy-basedscenario.Thevariablerenewablegenerationrestsbetweenthetwotopdownscenarios.In2030,Solarcovers12 %ofthetotalelectricalenergyandwindcover29 %.In2040,Solarcovers15 %oftheelectricalenergyand41 %comesfromwind.17 %ofelectricalenergyisstillproducedfromnu-clearin2030,reducingto12 %in2040.

Thescenariosincluderepoweringofrenewablegenerationtechnologiesin2040resultingintheintegrationofloadhours.

Sharesofcoalforelectricitygenerationdecreaseinallsce-narios.Thisisduetonationalpoliciesoncoalphase-out,suchasstatedbyUKandItalyorplannedbyGermany.Coalgenerationmovesfrom8 %in2025,to3 %–6 %in2030andnegligibleamountsin2040.

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Figure18:ElectricitygenerationmixinDistributedEnergy(EU28)

Figure19:ElectricitycapacitymixinDistributedEnergy(EU28)


Gas,however,hasashareof20 %in2025,whichreducesin2040to10–12 %.Itisimportanttonotelevelofdecar-bonisedandrenewablegasesinthegasmix,increasesto13 %in2030and54 %in2040.DistributedEnergystartstoshowaneedforCCSin2040,whichwillleadtonega-tiveemissionsinplantsburningbiomethane.

ConsiderationsonOtherNon-Renewables( mainlysmallerscaleCHPs )sourceareimportantfordecarbonisation.Asitstands,carbon-basedfuelsarestillwidelyusedinCHPplantsthroughoutEurope.Thisincludesoil,lignite,coalandgas.Inordertofollowthethermalphase-outstorylines,oil,coalandligniteshouldbephasedoutby2040andreplacedwithcleanerenergysources.Gaswillcontributetodecarbonisationbyincreasingsharesofrenewableanddecarbonisedgas.

OtherREScontainsgenerationtechnologiessuchasma-rine,smallbiofuelandgeothermal.Thegenerationfromthiscollectionoftechnologiesremainsstableinallscenarios.

Generationfromhydro increases in2030duetoanincreaseincapacityfrom145 GWin2025to174 GWin2030butremainsstableafter2030.Ashydropotentialisdeterminedbyveryspecificconditions,bottomupdataisusedforallscenarios.

Thermalcapacitiesarereduced,notonlytonationalphase-outpolicies,butthefactthatsomegenerationunitswillnolongerbeeconomicallyviableduetoreducedrunninghoursorwillreachtheendoftheirlifetime.

Thescenariosshowthatthereispotentialfordemandsidetechnologiesandbatteriestotakepartinthemarketandhelptosmoothendemandpeaksandlevelprices.Whiletheimpactofthesetechnologiesintermsofenergymaybelow,theyshowavastpotentialtoreducegenerationfromcarbonbasedpeakingunits,supportingdecarbonisation,contributetowardssystemadequacyatlowercostsandhelptointegrateincreasinglyvariableelectricitygeneration.

DistributedEnergyshowsthehighestincreaseinusageofthesetechnologiesin2030,whilsttheotherscenariosincorporaterelativelymoderatetolowusage.DistributedEnergyshowsmoreuseofdemandsideresourcesasthecostofresidentialsolarandbatterysystemsarediscounted.In2040,thereisamuchlargerincreaseinuseofbatterytechnologiesinallscenarios,themostnoticeableareDistributedEnergyandNationalTrends.

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Figure20:Peakgeneration,demandsideresponseandbatterytechnology(EU28)


6.2.3 Gas

6.2.3.1 Gas supply potentials

Indigenous production: contrasted views captured by the COP21 scenarios

Allscenariosconsidersimilardecreaseoftheconventionalindigenousproduction.However,theassumptionsontheindigenousrenewablegasproduction,suchasbiomethaneandP2G,differacrossthescenarios:

- 2020and2025relyonBestEstimatesfortheTSOs.Duetothedecreasingdomesticconventionalgasproductionandratherstablegasdemand,gasimportswillincrease.

- NationalTrendsreliesonbottom-updatafortheindigenousproductionfornaturalgas( includingun-conventionalgas,suchasshalegas )andbiomethane.Additionally,P2Gisaddedassumingthatcurtailedelec-tricitywillbeusedtoproducehydrogenandsyntheticmethane.

- DistributedEnergyconsidersasignificantuptakeoflocalrenewablegasproductionsupplying65 %oftheEUgasconsumptionin2050.Consideringagraduallydecreasinggasdemandafter2025,gas importsdecreaseby70 %comparedtotoday’slevel.

- GlobalAmbitionscenarioconsiderstheuptakeofrenewablegasproductioncapacitiestoalesserextentwithamoreimport-orientedvisionandlarge-scaledecarbonisation.Importsrepresent70 %oftheEUgasconsumptionin2050.Consideringagraduallydecreas-inggasdemandafter2025,gasimportsstilldecreaseby30 %comparedtotoday’slevel.

Thecontrastedapproachtowardsthesupplyconfigura-tionsisessentialwhenassessingtheinfrastructureforthenexttwentyyearssinceitdirectlyimpactsthewaytheEuropeangassystemisused.

Enough gas potential to satisfy the EU demand until 2050

AllscenariosconsideramaximumutilisationofindigenousproductionintheEuropeangassupplymixuntil2050.ThesupplypotentialassessmentrunbyENTSOGanddiscussedwithstakeholdersinJuly2019 16concludesthatforallsce-narios,theimportpotentialsarehighenoughtoensurethesupplyanddemandadequacyoftheEUuntil2050.Thisisdespitethedeclineoftheconventionalindigenous

16 https://www.entsog.eu/entsog-workshop-supply-potentials-and-market-related-assumptions-tyndp-2020#

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Figure21–23:NationalTrends,DistributedEnergy,GlobalAmbition

https://www.entsog.eu/entsog-workshop-supply-potentials-and-market-related-assumptions-tyndp-2020#



production.Inthisregard,itcanbehighlightedthattheDutchGovernmenthasdecidedtostopproductionatGro-ningen,Europe’slargestonshorenaturalgasfield,by2022.Additionally,thesupplymixwillbefurtherdiversifiedwithnewsourceslookingtowards2050.

Furthermore,whilstNorwegiansupplyisproducedinEurope,itisconsideredasanimportsourcetotheEUsinceNorwayisnotaMemberoftheUnion.

The import supply mix will be dominated by gas from Russia, Norway and LNG

Eventhoughthesupplymixwillbediversified,theimportsupplymixwillstillbedominatedbythecurrentthreelargestsupplysources:Russia,Norwayandliquefiednat-uralgas( LNG ).Whichofthesesources,whowillhavethelargestshareoftheimportsupplymix,willbedependentonmarketprices,andthesupplychain’sadaptationofthegrowingdemandfordecarbonisedgases.

Figure21,Figure22andFigure23highlighttheadequacyofscenariospecificgasdemandandsupply.Supplyissplitintothreecategories:

- TotalEUindigenousProductioncoversalldomesticproductionofconventionalnaturalgas,biomethaneandP2Gforbothhydrogenandmethane.

- MinimumExtra-EUSupplyPotentials:minimumgasim-portsbasedonlong-termcontractsandtheirassumedprolongation

- AdditionalSupplyPotential:additionalgasimportsoptionswhichwillbeusedbasedonarbitrage

Allscenariosshowenoughsupplypotentialstomeetthefuturedemand.

6.2.3.2 Gas supply composition

A technology neutral approach

Thedecarbonisationofthegassupplycanbedoneinmanyways.GascaneitherbeproducedfromrenewableenergysuchasbiomethaneorhydrogenfromP2G,butitcanalsobedecarbonisedfromconventionalnaturalgaswithdifferenttechnologiessuchassteammethanereforming( associatedwithcarboncaptureandsequestrationpro-cess )orpyrolysis.

EachtechnologycomeswithitslevelofdecarbonisationthatisconsideredinthecomputationoftheGHGemis-sionsofeachscenariotokeeptrackoftheircarbonbudgetexpenses.Forinstance,biomethanecanbeconsideredas

carbonneutralorcarbonnegativeifassociatedwithCCS( thereforeincludedinBio-EnergyCarbonCaptureandSe-questration( BECCS )category ).However,CCSprocessescomewithefficiencyfactorstoaccountforthepartoftheCO₂thatcannotbecapturedintheprocessandthatisthereforereleasedintheatmosphere.

Inordertocaptureallpossibleimpactsofthedevelopmentofoneoranothertechnology,thescenarioscomewithcontrastedassumptionsregardingthepenetrationofre-newableordecarbonisedgasesinthesupplymixoftheEU.

A source neutral approach

TYNDP2020scenariosconsidercontrastedpossibledevelopmentsofthegasdemandincludingdifferentgasqualities.ENTSOGandENTSO-Ehaveimprovedtheirmethodologyandintroducedamoredetailedbreakdownofthegasdemandbetweenmethaneandhydrogen.

However,therearedifferenttechnologicalwaysboththosedemandscanbesatisfied.Methaneandhydrogendemandscanofcourseprimarilybesatisfiedrespectivelybymeth-aneandhydrogenproduction.However,dependingonthepenetrationofthedifferentgenerationtechnologies,methanecanbedecarbonisedtogeneratehydrogenandthereforesatisfythehydrogendemand.Ontheotherhand,hydrogencanbemethanisedtocreatemethaneandthereforesatisfythemethanedemand.Itshouldbenotedthatanyconversionprocessincorporatesenergylossestakenintoaccountasefficiencyfactorswhenbuildingthescenarios.

InlinewiththeneutralapproachofENTSOGtowardstheinfrastructuresubmittedtoTYNDP,thescenariosaretech-nologyneutral.Therefore,unlessapieceofinfrastructureisactuallycommissionednochoiceismadebyENTSOGandthescenariosdonotpre-emptthelocationoftheconversionofthegassupplytosatisfythedemand.Theconversioncouldthereforebecentralisedattransmissionlevelorbedecentralisedatcity/consumergate.

6.2.3.2.1 National Trends

ThegassupplymixconsideredinNationalTrendsreflectsthecurrentEuropeantargetsandrespectiveMemberStates’NECPs.ThelevelofinformationregardingthegassupplymixcanbeverydifferentdependingonhowthetargetsaresetintheNECPs.Thus,duetolackofconsistencybetweentheindividualNECPs,thegassupplymixforNationalTrendsisnotsplitintodifferentgasqualities.Basedoninformationavailablefordemandandnationalproduction,NationalTrendswillrequiresimilargasimportslevelsastoday,withapeakof4,000 TWhin2025.


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Figure25:Gassourcecomposition–DistributedEnergy

Figure26:Gassourcecomposition–GlobalAmbition


6.2.3.2.2 Distributed Energy Scenario

Asadecentralisedscenario,DistributedEnergyconsidersahighlevelofindigenousproductionofrenewablegas.Sincebothdecarbonisationandahigherself-sufficiencyarethemaindriversoftheDistributedEnergyScenario,itrequiresasignificantincreaseinrenewableelectricitygenerationtomeettheP2Gdemand.Moreover,withalmost1,000 TWhDistributedEnergyprojectsthehighestbiomethaneproductionofallscenarios.Ontheotherside,importsarereducedby70 %between2020and2050,accountingfor2,386 TWhin2040,and1,050 TWhin2050.Thelevelofimportsisthelowestofallthescenariosandtoreachcarbonneutralityby2050meansthattheremainingimportsmustbedecarbonisedorrenewablebythen.However,aimingfordecarbonisationrequiresasignificantincreaseinrenewableelectricitygenerationtomeettheP2Gdemand.

6.2.3.2.3 Global Ambition

Asacentralisedscenario,GlobalAmbitioncombinesbothhighdecarbonisationlevelswithaglobalgassupplyandaccesstoavarietyofsources.However,thankstogeneraldemanddecreasealsoimportsdecreaseby25 %by2050comparedtocurrentlevels( –830 TWh ).Toreachcarbonneutralitygasimportstobedecarbonisedorrenewablebythenareofalargerscale( 2,670 TWh/y )thaninDistributedEnergy.

BothP2GaswellasBiomethanearehigherthan inNationalTrendsbutlowercomparedtoDistributedEnergy.Togethertheycontributewith1,150 TWhby2050.


6.3 Sector Coupling: Capacity and Generation for P2G and P2L

DistributedEnergyhasasignificantlyhigherdemandforEUproducedhydrogen,syntheticmethaneandliquidsthanGlobalAmbitionin2030and2040.TheDistributedEner-gystorylineassumesareductionby70 %ofgasimportsby2050( from3,700 TWhin2020downto1,050 TWhin2050 )combinedwiththedecarbonisationofthegassupply.Italsoassumesaquasiphase-outoffossiloilby2050replacedbyEuropeanbiofuelandP2L.

DistributedEnergyandGlobalAmbitionhaveaspecificdemandfordomesticallyproducedhydrogen.Inthesescenarios,P2GandP2Lplantsareoperatedoutsidetheenergymarkets,usingdedicatedrenewables,butthe

curtailedelectricityfromthemarketisusedtofeedtheseplants.NationalTrendsdoesnothaveaspecifictopdowndemandforhydrogen,thereforethepower-to-gasplantsarebuiltsolelybasedoncurtailedrenewables.

IntheCOP21scenarios,themainsourceusedforelectrol-ysisisoffshorewind,butwhereregionalconstraintsexist,onshorewindandsolarPVwillbethealternative.

Thegenerationprofilesmatchthecapacitiesbuild.ThereismoreREScapacityinDistributedEnergy2040there-foreitisnaturalthatthereismorecurtailedenergyinthisscenario.

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Figure28:Generationmixforhydrogenandderivedfuels


6.4 Reduction in overall EU28 CO2 Emissions and necessary measures

17 IPCCspecialreportontheimpactsofglobalwarmingof1.5°Cabovepre-industriallevelsandrelatedglobalgreenhousegasemissionpathways,IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,2018

FollowingtheEU’s long-termgoal,NationalTrendistreatedtoreach80 %to95 %ofdecarbonisationby2050.Althoughthecommonlyagreedtargetfor2030is40 %GHGemissionreduction,thelatestadoptionstothe2030climateandenergyframework( 32,5 %improvementinenergyefficiency,32 %shareforrenewableenergy )willconsequentlyresultinhigherGHGemissionsreductions.ThisisalsoshownbytheEuropeanCommission’sLong-termStrategyScenarios.Ontheotherhand,theCOP21scenariosgoforcarbonneutralityby2050,assuggestedbythelatestIPCCSpecialReport 17andtargetedbytheEuropeanCommission.

AsmentionedinSection6.2.1,bothCOP21Scenariosregisterasignificantdecreaseinprimaryenergydemand

withincreasingsharesofrenewables,mainlybiomassandvariableelectricity( bothfordirectuseandP2Gproduc-tion ).Whereaselectricitygenerationhasalreadyfacedsomeleveloftransition,othercarrierssuchasgasneedtofollow.ENTSOs’scenariobuildingexerciseshowsthattodecarboniseallsectorsaswellasallfueltypes,addi-tionalmeasuressuchasCCU/S,alsoincombinationwithbioenergy,areneeded.Fulldecarbonisationalsoneedsthecontributionofnon-energyrelatedsectors,suchasthedecarbonisationofagriculture/meatproductionandfurtherafforestation.Itshouldbenoted,thatforGHGemissionsrelatedtonon-CO₂emissions( e. g.methaneemissions )andLULUFC,ENTSOs’scenariosrelyontheaveragegivenbythe1.5TECHand1.5LIFEscenariosoftheEuropeanCommission’sLong-termStrategy.

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Figure29:GHGemissionreductionpathwaysuntil2050


Electricity Generation

In2030theelectricitysectorproducesemissionsofbe-tween363and402MtCO₂,areductionofaround76 %ascomparedto1990.DistributedEnergyshowsthelargesttheemissionreductionisonparwithNationalTrends.IntheCOP21Scenarios,theelectricitymixbecomesalmostcarbonneutralby2040withemissionsof74MtCO₂inDistributedEnergyand87MtCO₂inGlobalAmbition.Inthiscasebothscenarioshavethegasbeforecoalmeritorder,butasthedemandishigherinDistributedEnergy,

thereismoreconsumptionofbothgasandcoal.However,tomeettheambitioustargetsintheelectricitygeneration,fuelinputintosmallscaleCHP,mainlygas,needstobe83 %decarbonised.Moreover,inDistributedEnergyalsoCCU/SneedstobeappliedtoCCGTsby2040.

NationalTrendsseesemissionsof196MtCO₂,ontargetwiththe2°CscenariosshownintheLong-termStrategyfromtheEuropeanCommission.

Gas supply

Gasasanenergycarrierwithincreasingsharesofrenew-ableanddecarbonisedgasesplaysakeyroleinthede-carbonisationoftheeconomy.BiomethaneandrenewablegasesproducedviaP2GdonothaveCO₂emissions,butifCCU/S( post-combustiveorduringtheproductionofbiomethane )isappliedtheirconsumptioncanevenleadtonegativeemissions.Apartfromindigenouslyproducedrenewablegases,alsotheconsumednaturalgasneedstobedecarbonisedwithcarboncapturetechnologies,eitherpre-combustiveincombinationwithsteammeth-anereformingormethanepyrolysis,orpost-combustiveinlarge-scaleindustrialsitesorpowerplants.However,post-combustiveCCSmaymostlybeappliedtolargescaleprocesssuchasindustrialsitesorpowerplantsanditscarboncapturerateisusuallyaround90 %.

InDistributedEnergyin2050,65 %ofthegaswillberenew-able,butfortheother35 %needstobedecarbonisedwithcarboncapturetechnologies:in2050,tobecarbon-neutral,90MtCO₂needtobecapturedduringtheconversionofnaturalgasintohydrogenandadditionally50MtCO₂needtoberemovedpost-combustiveatindustrialsites.

Figure31showstheemissionsrelatedtotheconsump-tionofgasesandtheaveragecarbonintensity( inkgCO₂/kWh )ofthegasmixinDistributedEnergy.Duetoabovementionedrestrictionsforpost-combustiveCCS,theCO₂intensityofthegasmixdecreasesby86 %inDistributedEnergyby2050comparedtoconventionalnaturalgas.

Duetohigherimports,GlobalAmbitionseesabroaderneedforCCU/Stodecarbonisethegasmixtoreachcar-bonneutrality.Toproducehydrogenfromnaturalgasupto264MtCO₂/yearneedtobecapturedandstoredorused.Additionally,upto83MtCO₂/yearneedtoberemovedpost-combustive.Furthermore,88MtCO₂needstobecapturedfrombiomethane,whichallowsfornegativeemis-sions.TheCO₂intensityofgasdecreasesby86 %inGlobalAmbitionin2050comparedtoconventionalnaturalgas.

InthiscontextENTSOGandENTSO-E’assumptionsontheneedandapplicationofCCSareguidedbytheEuropeanCommission’sLong-termStrategyanditsmostambitious1.5°Cscenarios:1.5LIFEand1.5TECHseethenecessityof281to606MtCO₂captured( seesection8.5forabench-markwiththesescenarios ).

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Figure30:CO²emissionsintheElectricityGeneration


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Imports for Methane Demand* Imports for Hydrogen Demand** Credits from Biomethane + CCS

0

–0.2

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Figure32:DecarbonisationpathofgasinGlobalAmbition


TheCO₂priceandelectricitydemanddirectlyaffectthemarginalcostofthescenarios.DistributedEnergyhasthehighestCO₂priceandelectricitydemandinbothtime-frames,thereforethemarginalcostisthehighest.Thecostassumptionsofwindandsolar,influencetheCO₂pricehavinganeffectontheLevelizedcostofelectricityineachmarketnode,andtheelectricitymarginalcostsofthescenarios.

Levelised cost of electricity

Acrossallthescenariosnewcapacityforelectricitygen-erationcomesmainlyfromwindandsolarpower.Globaltrendsshowthatincentives,innovation,andinvestmenthavematuredthesolarandwindindustry;theirlevelisedcostsofelectricity( LCOE )issignificantlylowercomparedtootherlowcarbongenerationtechnologies,suchastidalorCCGTswithCCS.

Electricity Costs

€/MWh Marginal Prices

20302025 2040

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10

Global Ambition

Distributed Energy

NationalTrends

Global Ambition

NationalTrends

Distributed Energy

NationalTrends

Figure33:Marginalcosts

7


ApowersysteminvestmentmodelreliesontheLCOEofaparticulartechnologytomakedecisionsonwhetheritcanbebuilt.TheinvestmentmodelensuresthattheCAPEXandfixedcostsofatechnologyarerecoveredovertheeconomic/technicallifetimeoftheinvestment.AnnexIIprovidesanoverviewoftheinvestmentCAPEXandfixedcostassumptionsforeachofthetechnologiesconsideredbythescenariobuildingprocess.

Thedecisiontobuildaparticulartechnologyisdrivenbytheachievedelectricitypriceforaparticularmarketarea,i. e.theweightedaveragepricefromhourswhenthewind/solargeneratorisproducing,whichisimpactedbygeneralsupply/demandsituationandtheamountofpreviouslyin-stalledcapacityofthesametechnology.Typicallyinanin-vestmentmodelwillpreventoverinvestmentinaparticulartechnology,suchasSolarPV,assimilaroutputprofilesreducethemarginalprice,sothatfurtherinvestmentisnoteconomicallyviable.Furthermore,thecostandavailabilityofflexibilitiessuchasinterconnectionorstorage,suchasP2Xandbatteries,impacttheinvestmentdecisions,sincehigheramountsofstoragemayimprovetheachievedpriceforvariablerenewabletechnologies.

ConventionalandRenewableLCOEarevariableandde-pendentondifferingfactors.TheLCOEofRenewableen-ergysourcesareimpactedbyresourceavailabilitybothinageographicalandclimaticsense.ThecostoftechnologyforresidentialPVistypicallystableacrossEuropehowevertheabilitytoconverttheenergytoelectriciswhollyde-pendentonthegeographicallocation,basedonourCostassumptionsforDE2040SpaincouldachieveanLCOEof~€17/MWhcomparedto~€40/MWhFinlandforthesameinvestmentcost,thedifferenceisdrivenentirelybythefactsthataSpainPVyieldsapprox.22 %energyfrom1MWcomparedto9 %energyfrom1MWinFinland.

Thedecisiononbuildingnewconventionalthermalplantsisnotadependentonlocation,butrathertheSRMCandtheresidualdemandonthesystem.Thedecisiontobuildnewconventionalplantwillbebasedontheneedtomeettheresidualdemandandensuresecurityofsupplyforaparticularmarket.Thechartsshowsdemonstratethatinthelongtermhorizonrenewableenergyismorecosteffec-tivethanthermalgeneration.Thevariabilityofrenewablehowevermeansthatbackupsupplyismorecritical,theinvestmentdecisiontobuildthermalswillrelyonwhetherornotsecurityofsupplyishighlightedinamarketareaandhighpricesignalsenablethebuildingofbaseloadorpeakingthermalplant.TypicallyOCGTorLightoilunitswillrecovercostoverasmallnumberofhourswhereasbase-loadormid-meritplantswillrequireasignificantnumberofhourswherethepriceishighenoughtomakeaneconomicdecisiontobuild.

Solar PV Capacity Factor

0

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I00

Figure34:SolarPVCapacityFactor

Offshore Wind

Onshore Wind

Solar PV

Average 43 % 28 % 14 %

Max 51 % 40 % 22 %

Min 27 % 19 % 9 %

Table5:WindandSolarCapacityFactorCharacteristics


OuranalysisshowsthatinvestmentinnewconventionalformsofenergysuchasnuclearandCCGTswithCCSaredifficultduetothehighCAPEXandtheneedforhighoperationalhour’s60-70 %ofGasCCGTsand80-85 %forCCGTwithCCSandNuclearpowerplants.

GlobalAmbitionassumesverystrongcostreductionsforoffshorewind,withoffshorewindeconomicalcompetitivetoonshorewindandsolarPV.DistributedEnergyassumesstrongreductioninsolarPVcosts.Windonshoreisgen-erallycompetitiveinbothscenarios.SolarPVisgenerallymostcompetitiveinSouthernEurope,whereasonshorewindisparticularlycompetitiveinNorthernandWesternEurope.Foroffshorewind,thelowestcoststakeplaceinNorthSeaandsouthernBalticSearegions.

€/MWh LCOE: Global Ambition 2040

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€/MWh LCOE: Distributed Energy 2040

Figure35:RESLCOEinGlobalAmbition2040

Figure36:RESLCOEinDistributedEnergy2040


Aliteraryreviewofrelevantexternalstudiesisabestprac-ticeapproachwhenundertakingacomplextasksuchasdevelopingscenarioforENTSOGandENTSO-EandEU28perimeter.ThepurposeoftheexerciseistounderstandwhetherornottheinputassumptionsandmethodologiesthatENTSOsemployresultincredibleandplausibleout-comescomparetootherexpertopinionandmethods.

Aspartofourinternalqualityprocessforscenariobuilding,ENTSOGandENTSO-EhavecomparedtheirTYNDP2020ScenariostotheEuropeanCommission’sScenarios:

a) EUCO32/32.5scenario( EC,2018 ).b) ACleanPlanetforall–AEuropeanlong-termstrategicvisionforaprosperous,modern, competitiveandclimateneutraleconomy”( EC,2018 ),inparticularwith

a. BaselineScenario( “Baseline” ) b. 1.5TECHScenario( “1.5TECH” ) c. 1.5LIFEScenario( “1.5LIFE” )

Itisacknowledgedthattherearedifferentapproachesandpurposesforbothlistedstudies.ThestudieseachhaveaviewontheEU28electricityandgassectors.Itispossibletocreateplausiblerangesforscenarioparameterssuchas,lowtohighrangesfordemand;EVuptake,HeatPumpuptake;installedcapacityforgeneration,lowtohighrangegasforimportsetc.InthefollowingsectionsENTSOshavefocusedtheirbenchmarkingontheoverallelectricityandgasdemand,electrificationandgassupply.

Benchmarking8


8.1 Final Electricity Demand

ThehighestfinalelectricitydemandcorrespondstoDis-tributedEnergy,withtheactualgrowthbeingduetotheverystrongincreaseinelectricvehiclesandheatpumps.TheGlobalAmbitionscenariohasthelowestfinalelectric-itydemand,duetothehighergasshare.

Electrification rates

Thefinalelectricityenergydemanddividedbyfinalener-gydemandindicatesthedirectelectrificationofdifferentscenarios.Thegeneralincreaseintheshareofelectricityinfinalusedemand,illustratesthatelectrificationisonekeydrivertryingtoachieveasufficientdecarbonizationupto2050.TheelectrificationtrajectoriesoftheTYNDP2020scenarios3–4percentagepointsaboveorbelowtheECLTS1.5scenarios.Asdisplayedfortheyear2050,theDis-

tributedEnergyscenariosachievesanelectrificationrateof54 %pointsabovethe1.5TECHscenario.TheGlobalAmbitionscenarioachievesanelectrificationrateof47 %,2pointsbelowthe1.5LIFEscenario.

Thesectorialbreakdownsoftheindustry,residentialandcommercialsectorsillustratethattheCOP21scenariosare,withregardtoelectrification,intheorderofmagnitudecomparedtotheECLTSscenarios.

Asimilarstatementcanalsobemadetothetransportsectorforthemid-termhorizon( 2030and2040 ),wheretheelectrificationisintheballparkofotherexternalsce-narios.For2050,thetransportelectrificationinENTSOGandENTSO-ECOP21scenariosmatchestheEC’s1.5TECHscenario.

2030 203520252015 2020 2040 2045 2050

60 %

50 %

40 %

30 %

20 %

Global AmbitionTYNDP 2020: EUCO reference case 2016 EU LTS Baseline Distributed Energy

Direct electrification rate

EC 1.5 TECH

EC 1.5 LIFE

EC 1.5 LIFE

Figure38:BenchmarkingofprojectedelectrificationrateforEU28

TWh Direct Electricity Demand

2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

4,500

4,000

3,500

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TYNDP 2020: Global AmbitionNational Trend Distributed EnergyEUCO reference case 2016 EU LTS Baseline

EC 1.5 TECHEC 1.5 LIFE

Figure37:Benchmarkingofprojectedelectricitydemandandwind/solargenerationforEU28


Electrification rate – Industry

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Global AmbitionTYNDP 2020: EU LTS Baseline

Distributed Energy

EC LTS 1.5 TECH

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Electrification rate – Residential and Tertiary

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Distributed Energy

EC LTS 1.5 TECH

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Figure39:BenchmarkingofprojectedelectrificationintheindustrialsectorforEU28

Figure40:BenchmarkingofprojectedelectrificationofresidentialandcommercialsectorsinEU28

Figure41:BenchmarkingofprojectedelectrificationinthetransportsectorforEU28


8.2 Gas demand

AlthoughENTSOsscenariosfollowtheirspecificassump-tionsandmethodologies,theyaredesignedtomeetthesameEUclimateobjectivesasotherexternalscenarios.

ENTSOs scenarios in the range of EC scenarios

Inthetimeframe2020–2040,NationalTrendsprojectsca.10 %highergasdemandthanEUCO32/32.5andtheBaselinescenario.Partofthedifferencecanbeexplained

bynationalcoal-phaseoutpoliciescapturedbyNationalTrendstakingintoaccountlatestinformationfromtheNECPsornationalclimatestrategies( suchastheGermancoal-phaseout ).

In2050,DistributedEnergyreachestheEUclimatetargetswith3,000 TWhrangingbetween1.5TECHand1.5LIFE.GlobalAmbitionreachesthesameobjectiveswithagasdemandof3,800 TWh,rangingabove1.5TECH.

TWh (GCV) Total gas demand (Methane + Hydrogen)

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EC – LTS – 1.5 TECH

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Gas before Coal SenstitivityGlobal Ambition

Distributed Energy

National Trends

EUCO32/32.5 GCVtotal demand

Figure42:Totalprimarygasdemand–BenchmarkwithECLongTermStrategy


Gas demand for final use and for power generation follow different evolutions

Whenlookingintothegasdemandmoreindetail,thetotalgasdemand( methaneandhydrogen )canbedividedinthegasdemandforfinaluse,wheregasisdirectlyusedasenergy( inresidential,tertiary,industryandtransport )orasfeedstock( onlyindustry )andthegasdemandforpowergeneration,wherethegasisconvertedintoelectricityinpowerplants,CHPorinthelongrunfuelcells.

Till2025,allTYNDPscenariosshowhighalignmentwiththeEUCO32/32.5scenarioforbothdemandcategories.For2030,TheTYNDPscenariosshowdifferentdemanddevelopmentscomparedtotheEUCO32/32.5scenario.

- Final demand:Withregardtothegasfinaldemand,theTYNDPScenariosconsidermoregasinsectorssuchastransportandindustrycomparedtotheEUCO32/32.5scenario,whichalsoleadaslightlyhigherdemand.

- Power Demand:IncaseofNationalTrends,thediffer-encecanbeexplainedbyrecentlystatedpoliciesandtheirreflectionintheNECPs.IncaseofDistributedEnergyandGlobalAmbition,thereasonistwofolded:bothscenarioscombineahigherelectricitydemandwithanearlycoal-phaseout.Thecombinationleadstoanincreasingroleforgasinpowergeneration.

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EUCO32/32.5

TWh (GCV) Methane + Hydrogen demand

Gas demand for final use

Gas demand for power generation

Gas before Coal

Figure43:Primarygasdemandforfinaluseandforpowergeneration


8.3 Renewable gas supply

Therenewablegasproductioninthenextthirtyyearscanbedividedinthreedifferentcategories:productionofbiomethane,Power-to-Methane( P2CH4 )andPower-to-Hydrogen( P2H2 ).

Biomethane in the range of EC LTS scenarios and Gas for Climate study

BiomethanegenerationinGlobalAmbitioniscomparableto1.5TECHand1.5LIFEscenariosofECLTS,whereasDistributedEnergyconsidersahighergenerationofbiom-ethanewithintheEUcomparabletotheP2Xscenario.withNationalTrendshavingthemostlimitedpenetrationofbiomethane,allscenariosarethereforeintherangeofthe

ECLong-TermStrategy.Additionally,DistributedEnergyshowscomparablegenerationtotheGasforClimatestudybyNavigant( 1,200 TWhingrosscalorificvalue ).

Power-to-gas sees a limited development compared to EC LTS

Asaresultoftheassumptionsonthegenerationpoten-tialaswellasthedevelopmentrateofP2Gtechnologies,ENTSOGandENTSO-Escenariosalllookmoreconserva-tivethanECLTS,explainingthelimitedgapbetweentheoverallindigenousgenerationconsideredinECLTSandENTSOsscenarios.

TWh (GCV) Renewable Gas Production

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2030 2040 2040National Trends

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2030 2050

Biomethane Power-to-HydrogenPower -to-Methane

Distributed Energy

Figure44:Renewablegasproduction–ENTSOsvsECLTS(P2X,1.5TECH,1.5LIFE)


8.4 Energy imports

Thefigurebelowcomparestheenergyimportin2050betweenENTSOsandECLTSscenarios.AsDistributedEnergyfocusesonhigherEuropeanself-sufficiency,thisscenarioforeseesthelowestlevelsofenergyimport.EvenwellbelowtheenergyimportsintheECLTSscenarios.TotalenergyimportinGlobalAmbitionisquitecomparablewithboth1.5TECHand1.5LIFEscenarios.Thetypeofen-ergycarrier,whichareimporteddiffer,however.ComparedtotheECscenarios,GlobalAmbitionforeseeslessimportofoilandmoreimportof( renewable )gas.Thehighergasimporthoweverstemsexplicitlyfromthescenariostorylineofthisscenario.Furthermore,comparedtotheLTSbase-linescenariothegasimportsinGlobalAmbitionarestillreasonable.

Figure46presentsthedevelopmentsofgasimportsovertime.Althoughgasimportmightseelimitedincreaseinthenextfiveyears,allscenariosforeseeadecreaseingasim-portafter2025.Withhighsharesofindigenouslyproducedrenewablegases,DistributedEnergyshowsalignmentwithEC’smostambitious1.5TECHScenario.Ontheotherhand,GlobalAmbitionshowsabalanceddevelopmentofgasimportsonatrajectorywhichseemssimilartotheNECPbasedNationalTrends.

Thedifferenceinimportsfor2020reflectstherecentreductionofGroningenfieldproductiondecidedbytheNetherlands,whichisnotconsideredintheotherexternalscenarios( EUCO32/32.5inparticular ).

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1,000

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EC – LTS – 1.5 TECH EC – LTS – 1.5 LIFE

Global Ambition Distributed Energy National Trends

EUCO32/32.5 GCV total demand

Energy imports in 2050TWh (NCV)

Distributed Energy 1.5 TECH 1.5 LIFEGlobal Ambition LTS Baseline0

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Hydrogen demand**Oil demand Methane demand*

Figure46:Gasimportsperscenarioandperyear

Figure45:Energyimportsin2050byenergycarrier

*decarbonised,eitherbynaturalgasimportswithpost-combustiveCCU/soranyothertechnology **naturalgasconvertedtohydrogenatimportpoint/citygateordirecthydrogenimports


8.5 Carbon Capture and Storage

BothDistributedEnergyandGlobalAmbitionscenariosshowanincreasedapplicationofcarboncaptureandstor-age( CCS ).DistributedEnergyforeseesaboutagrowthofupto130MTperyearin2050.ThisisslightlyaboveECLTS1.5LIFE,butwellbelowEC1.5TECH.GlobalAmbitiondoesexceedECLTSscenarioshowever.ButincomparisonwithforexampleGasforClimate( Navigant )theamountCCSinthisscenariostillseemsreasonable.

8.6 Conclusion

Benchmarkingthedemand,renewablegenerationandelectrificationwiththemostimportantreferencestudiesillustratesthereasoningbehindthenTYNDP2020Sce-nariosintheirassumptionsandmethodologies.NationalTrendsisbasedonthenationalpoliciestowardsmeetingtheEU’sclimatetargetsfor2050.However,thebenchmarkconfirmsbothGlobalAmbitionandDistributedEnergyscenariostobeplausiblepathwaystowardsmeetingtheCOP21targetsconsideringcontrastedevolutionsoftheenergysystem.

Inaddition,itshouldbenotedthattheDistributedEnergyscenariocomesveryclosetoEC’s1.5°Cscenariosformostoftheirfeatures.

ENTSOs scenarios robust and fit for purpose

Thecontrastsindemandandproductiontechnologiesaswellasthecentralised/de-centralisedapproachtothedevelopmentofrenewabletechnologiesanditsimpactontheenergyimportsmakeENTSOGandENTSO-Escenariosthebestsupportforassessingtheinfrastructureneedsoftheenergysystemforthenextdecades.

MT/y Carbon Capture and Storage in 2050

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Figure47:CCSin2050inENTSOsandECscenarios


Fuelpricesarekeyassumptionsforthepowermarketmodellingastheydeterminethemeritorderoftheelec-tricitygenerationunits,hencetheelectricitydispatchandresultingelectricityprices.

ENTSOGandENTSO-Ehaveusedseveralsourcestobenchmarkthedifferentpriceforecastsandprojectionsinordertoconcludeonthereferencesourcetobeusedforthescenarios( IEA,Primes,Bloomberg,IHS ).Thisas-sessmentshowsthatthepricesprovidedbythePRIMES,whichconsiderstheglobalcontextanddevelopmentthatinfluencescommodityprices,in-linewiththeECtargets,isrobustenoughtobeusedasareferenceforgas,oilandcoalpricesaswellfortheCO₂price.Pricesfornuclear,ligniteandbiofuelsarekeptthesameasconsideredforTYNDP2018.

ThefollowingtablesummarizesthesourceforeachfueltypeandCO₂.

StartingfromthePRIMESreferencepriceforNationalTrends2030,theCO₂pricewillbeincreasedinordertoachieveaspecificcarbonbudgetasdefinedforeachspe-cificstorylineandyear.

Thetablebelowsummarizesalltheresultingpricesperscenario.

Fuel Commodities and Carbon Prices

Figure48:Summaryoffuelpricereferences

TYNDP 2018

PRIMES

Endogenous to reach the carbon budgetPRIMES

Global Ambition and Distributed EnergyNational Trends

CO�

Table6:FuelpricesinTYNDP 2020scenarios

2020 2021 2023 2025 2030 2040

BE G2C NT DE GA NT DE GA

€/GJ

Nuclear 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47

Lignite 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1

Oilshale 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3

HardCoal 3.0 3.12 3.4 3.79 4.3 6.91

NaturalGas 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.46 6.91 7.31

LightOil 12.9 14.1 16.4 18.8 20.5 22.2

HeavyOil 10.6 11.1 12.2 13.3 14.6 17.2

€/tCO2 CO2 price 19.7 20.4 21.7 23 56 27 53 35 75 100 80

9


Externalstakeholdersrepresentingthegasandelectricityindustries,customersandenvironmentalNGOs,regulators,EUMembersStatesandtheEuropeanCommissionwerekeyinbuildinganambitious,yettechnicallysound,setofscenarios.

TheScenarioBuildingprocesswassetupbyENTSOGandENTSO-Eworkjointlywithstakeholdersthroughinterac-tiveworkshops,webinarsandweb-consultations.Dozensofstakeholdersprovidedinputtoformulate,withENTSOGandENTSO-E,thenewscenariosstorylines.

Why do we do external stakeholder interaction?

StakeholdersfortheTYNDP2020ScenarioBuildingprocessaredividedintotwogroups:internalandexternal–andthereforeabovequestionsrequiresadifferentiatedanswer:

Internal Stakeholders

SincethescenariosaredevelopedbyENTSO-EandENTSOG–therepresentativesofEuropeanelectricityandgastransmissionoperators–theparticipantsinthese

organisationsareregardedasinternalstakeholders.Rep-resentativesofENTSO-EandENTSOGformthesteeringcommitteefortheScenarioBuildingprocess.Theyreceiveupdatesonthedevelopmentoftheprocess,aredirectlyconsultedonmajorprocess-decisions( e. g.thedecisiontoengageClimateActionNetworkEuropeandtheRenewa-blesGridInitiativeinthecalculationofaParis-compliantcarbonbudget ),andultimatelyapprovethescenarioreportforpublish.

External Stakeholders

Toensurecompletetransparencyandtoencouragethewidestpossiblerangeofopinions,participationintheex-ternalstakeholderactivitiesisentirelyopen.Anyorganisa-tionorprivateindividualwhichwishesmaytakepartintheexternalstakeholdereventswhichaccompanythescenariobuildingprocess.Anyorganisationorprivateindividualmayalsoofferfeedbackinthetwoconsultationperiodsduringtheprocesswithoneexception:Inordertoensuretransparencywhentakingexternalstakeholderfeedbackintoaccount,feedbackfrommembersofENTSO-EandENTSOGisnotconsideredintheexternalconsultations.

Stakeholder feedback and how it shaped the scenarios10


SincethescenariosalsoformthebasisfortheTenYearsNetworkDevelopmentPlansforelectricityandgas,andthereforealsohaveadirectinfluenceonthecost-benefitanalysisforProjectsofCommonInterest,theEuropeanCommissionandtheAgencyfortheCooperationofEnergyRegulators( ACER )areconsultedregularlyandbilaterallythroughouttheentirescenariobuildingprocess.

How does the external stakeholder inter action work?

Theexternalstakeholderinteractionwasdesignedtoaccompanytheentirescenariobuildingprocess.Theinteractioncanbegenerallygroupedintotwophases:consultationofthequalitativescenarioelementsinthefirstyearoftheprocess,andtheconsultationofthefinalscenarios–incorporatingbothqualitativeandquantitativescenarioelements–intheinthesecondyearofthepro-cess.Consultationswerepreceededbystakeholderwork-shops.Whilemanysimilarstudiesorscenariodevelopmentprocessesoftenholdworkshopsafterthecompletionofaconsultationphase,theWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingfeltitwouldbemorebeneficialtoholdworkshopspriortoconsultation.Thisgavestakeholdersabetterunderstand-ingofthescenariosandtheopportunitytoaskquestionsbeforetakingpartintheconsultationprocess.

Thedevelopmentprocessiscoveredindetailbythematerialreleasedpriortothepublicationofthisreport,thehigh-levelprocessforthesestorylinesfollowedthestepsbelow:

1. Public workshop: “TYNDP 2020 Scenario Develop-ment Workshop”, 29 May 2018 (link)

2. Publication of first draft of five storylines describ-ing potential relevant futures for the electricity and gas system in Europe developed by ENTSO-E and ENTSOG, 2 July 2018 (link)

3. Public consultation of storylines: “2020 Scenario Storylines ”, 2 July to 14 September 2018 (link)

4. Public Webinar on “Scenario Development Process Update”, 21 November 2018 (presentation sent to participants via email)

5. Public Webinar on Final Storyline Release, 18 April 2019 (link)

6. Publication of Final Storylines, 29 May 2019 (link)

7. ENTSOG’s Public Workshop on the Supply Poten-tials and Market Related Assumptions for TYNPD 2020, 10 July 2019 (link)

8. TYNDP Cooperation Platform (with EC and ACER) and High-Level Meetings throughout the whole process with main focus on National Trends as the central policy scenario.

9. Public Workshop on “Draft Scenario Report 2020”, 5 December 2020 (link)

10. Public consultation on “Draft Scenario Report 2020”, 25 November 2019 to 22 January 2020 (link)

https://www.entsog.eu/entsos-gas-and-electricity-tyndp-2020-scenario-development-workshop#welcome

https://www.entsog.eu/sites/default/files/entsog-migration/publications/TYNDP/2018/180702_WGSB_Scenario%20Building%202020_Consultation_Document.pdf

https://www.entsog.eu/events/joint-entsos-consultation-build-europes-future-tyndps-2020-scenario-building-storylines#

https://www.entsog.eu/sites/default/files/2019-06/190418_WGSB_Storyline_Webinar_Final1.pdf

https://www.entsog.eu/sites/default/files/2019-06/190408_WGSB_Scenario%20Building%202020_Final%20Storyline%20Report.pdf


https://www.entsog.eu/scenarios#entsog-ten-year-network-development-plan-2020

https://www.entsog.eu/sites/default/files/2019-11/PR0195_191125_Press%20Release_ENTSOs%20commence%20public%20consultation%20on%20their%20Scenario%20Report%20for%20TYNDP2020.pdf


10.1 Storyline Consultation

Theinitialstorylineswerepresentedforconsultationinthesummerof2018.Beforethebeginningoftheconsultation,astakeholderworkshopwasheldinBrusselson29May2018.Thegoalofthisworkshopwastointroducethefiveinitialqualitativestorylinesandthestorylinematrices.StakeholdersweregiventheopportunitytointeractwithmembersoftheWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingdirectlyandtoofferopinionsandaskquestionsabouttheunder-lyingassumptionsforallfivestorylines.

AftertheworkshoptheStorylineReportwaspublishedforconsultation.Respondentswereaskedtoremarkontheconsistencyandcredibilityofthefivestorylinesandtorankthestorylinesaccordingtotheirpreferences.TheywerealsoaskedabouttheiropinionsonkeyissuesunderpinningthestorylinessuchasdisruptivetechnologieswhichmightplayamajorroleintheEUenergysystemby2050,theroleofcoalintheEnergyTransition,andthepotential( ornot )ofCCStosupportdecarbonisation.Theresultsofthefirststakeholderconsultationprovidedsomeimportantfeedbackforthequantificationofthescenarios.

Storyline Feedback and Storyline Selection

Feedback on Distributed Energy

TheDistributedEnergystorylinereceivedthemostpos-itivefeedbackofthefivestorylinespresentedandwasgenerallyseenasconsistentandcredible.Criticismofthisstorylineprincipallyrevolvedaroundpossiblelimitationsorweaknessesinthedecentralisedenergymodel.Forexample,thehighlevelofelectrificationattheexpenseofgas( includinglow-carbongases )wasnotedbyseveralstakeholdersaswereconcernswithmaintainingsecurityofsupplywithdecentralisedgeneration.Finally,severalstakeholdersfeltthattheroleofdistributiongridsinthestorylineneededtobeconsideredingreaterdetail.How-ever,thisstorylinewasclearlythemostpopularamongrespondents.

Feedback on European Focus

TheEuropeanFocusStorylinewasaplaceholderforanexternalScenario,asrequestedbytheEuropeanCommis-sionintheTYNDP2018Scenarios.ENTSOs,EuropeanCommissionandACERhavejointlydecidednottouseanexternalScenario,butinsteadtoalignNationalTrendswiththeNECPstotheutmostpossible.However,theEuropeanFocusStorylinereceivedlessdirectfeedbackthantheoth-

erstorylinesbutwasgenerallypositivelyreceived.SeveralrespondentsnotedthesimilarityofthisstorylinetotheNationalTrendsstorylineand,likewise,criticiseditforapparentlyfailingtoreachEUTargets.EuropeanFocuswasthesecond-mostpopularstorylineamongrespondents,narrowlyaheadofNationalTrendsandGlobalAmbition.

Feedback on National Trends

Theconsensusamongstrespondentswasthatthestorylinewasbothconsistentandcredible.Manyrespondentsspokeofthisstorylineasforminga„reference“scenarioincomparisontothemoreambitioustop-downscenarios.Nonetheless,thelackofambitioninthisscenarioalsodrewcriticismasmanystakeholders( correctly )recognisedthatsuchascenariowouldnotachievethenecessaryclimatechangegoalsby2050.SeveralstakeholdersalsonotedthatadjustmentstothecurrentETSmodelwouldbecrucialtoachievingclimatetargetsanddoubtedwhethertheadjustmentsassumedintheNationalTrendsstorylinewouldbesufficient.NationalTrendsrankedthirdamongrespondents,slightlybehindEuropeanFocusandslightlyaheadofGlobalAmbition.

Feedback on Global Ambition

ThemajorityofstakeholderswereunsatisfiedwiththeconsistencyandcredibilityoftheGlobalAmbitionsto-ryline.Manyenvironmentalandsocietalstakeholdersviewedthe95 %reductioninCO₂emissionsasunrealistic,especiallyasthiswouldbeachievedthroughtheglobalscale-upofseverallow-carbontechnologies( PtX,CCS )whichrespondentsconsideredimmaturetoday.Whiletheglobalfocusofthestorylinereceivedpraisefromsomere-spondents,othercriticisedthehigherlevelsof( renewable )energyimportsthatwouldentail.GlobalAmbitionrankedfourthamongrespondents,slightlybehindbothEuropeanFocusandNationalTrends.

Feedback on Delayed Transition

TheDelayedTransitionstorylinewasby-fartheleastpopularstorylineamongstakeholderswhofeltitlackedbothconsistencyand,inparticular,credibility.Thesto-rylinewascriticisedforitslackofambitionandnegativemessageitwouldsendifsuchascenariowereincludedinthefinalreport.Multiplerespondentsnotedthatthisscenariowouldentailthegreatestsocietalcostsduetotheincreasesinglobaltemperatureswhichwouldoccurifthisscenariooccurredworldwide.Thestorylinerankedlastoutofthefive.


The Role of CCS

Asamaturebutcontroversialtechnology,withthepoten-tialtosupportdecarbonisation,stakeholderswereaskedfortheiropiniononwhatroleCCSshouldplayinthesce-narios.ManyoftherespondentsheldaskepticalviewofCCS,largelythiswasbasedonaperceivedimmaturityofthetechnologyandanexpectedlackofsocialacceptanceontheEuropeanmainland.Ontheotherhand,respond-entsalsosuggestedtoincludeCCSwithregardto“hardtodecarbonize”sections( suchasnon-energydemandorcement/fertilizerproduction )andnetnegativeemissionsasalsoexpressedbytheIPCC1.5SpecialReport.

The Role of Coal

StakeholderswereaskedaboutwhethercoalfiredpowergenerationwouldplayaroleintheEuropeanenergysys-temin2050and,ifnot,whichmeasuresshouldbeusedtoinduceacoalphase-out.Whilemanystakeholdersbelievedthatcoalshouldnotplayanyroleinthefuture,othersfeltthatitwouldcontinuetoplayatleastaminorroleinsomecountriesuntil2050.However,therewasageneralcon-sensusthatachievingEUclimatechangetargetsby2050wouldbeextremelydifficultifcoalcontinuedtoplayamajorroleintheenergymix.Thereweremajordiscrepan-ciesinthefeedbackregardingwhetherthecoalphase-outshouldbepolicy-oreconomically-driven.Themajorityofstakeholdersadvocatedforapolicydrivenapproach,howevermanyfeltbothpolicyandeconomywouldhavetoplayacentralroleinthisprocess.ImprovementoftheETSsystemandagreatlyincreasedcarbonpricewerethemainpolicyoptionssuggestedintheconsultation.

Disruptive Technologies

Aspartoftheconsultation,stakeholderswerealsoaskedtheiropiniononwhichpotentialdisruptivetechnologieswouldhaveamajorimpactonthefutureEuropeanenergysystem.Morethananyothertechnologies,stakeholdersmentionedenergystoragetechnologiesaspotentiallydisruptiveinthefuture.Power-to-Xtechnologieswerethesecond-mostcommonresponse,followedbyimprovedrenewablesgenerationtechnologies,smartgridtechnolo-giesandCCS/CCU.

How did the Storyline Consultation influence the Scenario Building Process?

OneofthecentraldecisionsmadeaftercompletionoftheStorylineConsultationwasthefinalstorylineselection.TheWorkingGroupScenarioBuildinghadpreviouslyagreedtomodelthreeofthefivestorylinespresented.ThisdecisionwasmadebasedontimeandresourceconstraintswithinthegroupandwithrespecttotheoverallTYNDPprojectsandtheadjacentProjectofCommonInterestselectionprocess.

TheWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingagreedthattwoofthescenariosshouldhaveahigherlevelofclimate-changeambitionandremainwithintheParis-compliantcarbonbudgetcalculatedbyCANEuropeandchosenbyENTSOGandENTSO-E.Tocounterbalancethesetwoscenarios,thethirdscenarioshouldbeabottom-upscenariobasedonofficialEUandmember-statedata.AsDistributedEnergyhadbeenthemostpopularstorylineamongrespondents,itwaschosenbytheWorkingGroupScenarioBuilding.TheteamalsofeltthatGlobalAmbitionofferedthegreatestcontrasttoDistributedEnergyfromaninfrastructure-perspectiveand that thecreationofacentralised,import-focusedscenariojuxtaposedespeciallywellthedecentralised,EU-focusednarrativeofDistributedEnergy.GlobalAmbitionalsohadahigherlevelofdecarbonisationambitionthanEuropeanFocus( althoughEuropeanFocushadbeenslightlymorepopularamongexternalstakehold-ers ).

AsEuropeanFocushadbeensopopularamongexternalstakeholders, theWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingfeltitshouldalsobetakenintoaccountinthescenariodevelopment.BoththeWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingandexternalstakeholdershadnoticedthesimilaritybe-tweenNationalTrendsandEuropeanFocusandmostofthekeyparametersofthetwostorylineswerecombinedinthedevelopmentofNationalTrends.InordertoensurealignmentwiththeaimsoftheEuropeanFocusstorylineandasjointlydecidedwiththeEuropeanCommissionandACER,theNationalTrendsscenariowasalignedwithdatafromtheNationalEnergyandClimatePlans( NECP )oftheEUmemberstates.

AlthoughACERfavouredtheinclusionoftheDelayedTransitionstorylineinthefinalScenarioReport,boththeEuropeanCommissionandthemajorityofexternalstakeholderswereextremelycriticalofthis.Moreover,ENTSOGandENTSO-Etakeenergyinfrastructureread-inessfortherequiredenergytransitionforinevitableandthereforefocustheirTYNDPontheassessmentofprojectsincompliancewithnationalandEU-wideclimatetargets.Therefore,theWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingdecideditwouldbeintransparenttoincludesuchawidelyunpopularstorylineinthefinalreport.


10.2 Draft Scenario Report Consultation

18 LinktoPCI

ThesecondphaseofexternalstakeholderconsultationbeganafterthepresentationoftheDraftReporton 5December2019.Thegoalsofthesecondexternalstakeholderconsultationwerefarbroaderthanduringthefirstconsultation.Tothisend,theconsultationquestion-nairewasmoredetailedandentailedquestionswithtwodifferentbroadfoci:

- Presentationofdataandengagementwith externalstakeholders

- Consistencyandcredibilityofthescenarios, themethodsusedandtheirambition

TheWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingreceived42directresponsestotheconsultation( thisdoesnotincludebilat-eralornon-consultationfeedbackfrominstitutionssuchastheEuropeanCommissionandACER ).Morethanhalfofthesecamefromprojectpromoters,researchersandNGOs,showingthehighlevelofengagementtheseorganisationswereabletoachieveinthescenariobuildingprocess.

Presentation of data and engagement with stakeholders

Themajorityofstakeholdersweresatisfiedwiththepres-entationandlevelofexplanationprovidedbytheWorkingGroupScenarioBuilding.Inparticulartheuseofvisualisationtoolswaspraisedformakingthedatasetsmoreaccessible,althoughsomerespondentsstillfeltthatbetteraccesstotherawdatawasneededtofullycomprehendthescenarios.StakeholdersexpressedlesssatisfactionwiththelevelofengagementbytheWorkingGroupScenarioBuilding,how-everitshouldbenotedthatalmosthalfofallrespondentsfailedtoanswerthequestionsonthistopic.Theprincipalconcernsregardingthestakeholderengagementprocessrelatedtothetimingofthefinalconsultationperiodandthecommunicationofitsgoals.Somerespondentsfeltthesec-ondconsultationoccurredtoolateintheprocess.Indeed,severalstakeholdersmistakenlybelievedthattheresultsoftheTYNDP2020ScenarioReportwouldbeutilisedforthe4thProjectofCommonInterestList 18( releasedinOctober2019andconfirmedbytheEuropeanParliamentinFebru-ary2020 )andthereforecriticisedtheapparentlatenessofthestakeholderconsultationinthisrespect.TheWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingalsonotedthatcommunicationoftheScenarioMethodologyReport( publishedinparalleltothemainreportandavailableatENTSOGandENTSO-ETYNDPScenarioReportmicrosite )wasapparentlylesssuc-cessfulthanforthemainDraftScenarioReportasmanyofthestakeholdersquestionsregardingthescenariobuilding

processhadbeenaddressedintheScenarioMethodologyReport.Itisclearthatinthe2022scenariobuildingprocess,greateremphasisshouldbeplacedonexplainingandpre-sentingtheScenarioMethodologyReporttostakeholders.

Consistency and credibility of the scenarios, the methods used, and their ambition

ThevastmajorityofrespondentsagreedthatthescenariosshoulduseEU2030and2050climatechangetargetsasaminimumstandard.TherewasalsogeneralagreementthattheNationalTrendsscenarioshouldbebasedondatafromtheNationalEnergyandClimatePlans( NECPs )oftheEU-28,although,astheWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingalsonoted,thisapproachcancreatediscrepanciesbetweenna-tionalenergyandclimatepoliciesthatundermineEU-widedecarbonisationmeasures.

TheuseofacarbonbudgetfortheDistributedEnergyandGlobalAmbitionscenarioswaswidelyregardedasapositivestep.However,manyrespondents,especiallythosefromenvironmentalNGOs,foundthescenarioswerestilltooconservativeandrequestedmoreextremescenarioswithgreaterlevelsofdecarbonisationorcompletelyexcludingcertainenergycarriersfromthemodels.Furthermore,sever-alrespondentsfeltthattheGlobalAmbitionandDistributedEnergyscenariosdidnotdiffersufficientlytoprovidetrulyalternativevisionsoftheEnergyTransitionin2050.

Severalrespondentsalsofeltthelevelsofbiomassandnatu-ralgasdemand,especiallyintheDistributedEnergyscenarioweretoohigh.TheyalsoarguedthattheuseofCCSand,toalesserextent,LULUCFtocompensateforthesefossilfuelsintheenergymixwasnotcredibleconsideringthehighdecarbonisationambitionsattachedtothesescenarios.

How did the Draft Scenario Report consultation influence the Final Scenario Report 2020?

AstheWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingthemselvesnoted,itwillbenecessarytorestructurethetimelineforthe2022ScenarioReporttoensurethatthedelayswhichoccurredlateinthe2020processarenotrepeated.Certainrespondentssuggestedshorteningthestorylineselectionphaseearlyintheprocesstoallowmoretimeformodel-ling.TheWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingwilltakethissuggestiononboardinthe2022process.Respondentsalsorequestedbetteraccesstodatasetsinordertogaina

https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/technical_document_4th_pci_list.pdf


betterunderstandingoftheprocess.TheWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingnotedthisconcernandwillendeavourtotransparencyofdatasetsinthe2022ScenarioReportandtoallowstakeholderstoviewthecoreassumptionsandparametersusedtobuildthescenarios.Toensurethatstakeholderscanretainthehighlevelofengagementintheearlystagesoftheprocess,theWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingsuggestincludingkeyassumptionsandparametersinthefirstexternalconsultationphaseinadditiontothequalitativestorylineelements.

Inordertotakeintoaccountfeedbackreceivedonalackofdifferencebetweenthetop-downscenarios,theconsid-erableuseofbiomass,andaperceivedlackofambitionintheelectrificationandRESdevelopment,theWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingmadethedecisiontoupdatetheScenarios.

– National Trends

ForNationalTrends,ENTSOGhasrunanadditionaldatacollectionwithitsmemberstocollectinformationfromthefinalNECPs.Moreover,latestpolicydecisionshavebeentakenintoaccount,suchasfortheGermancoal-phaseoutortheDutchgasproduction.UpdateofdatacompliantwiththefinalNECPsandGermanCoalphaseout.UpdatesonpoliciesarealsotakenintoaccountforDistributedEn-ergyandGlobalAmbition.

– Distributed Energy

Gas demand: ThegasdemandforDistributedEnergyin2050hasbeenre-computedfollowingalinearextrapola-tionofthedevelopmentbetween2025and2040–withanewtotalgasdemandof3,000 TWhforDistributedEnergy.

Bioenergy:DistributedEnergyhasbeenupdatedinthefinalreportfortheyears2040and2050.Thiswasdonebylimitingtheoveralluseofbiomassto2,424 TWhin2040and2,757 TWhin2050inlinewiththe2,442–2,907 TWhrangeofthe1.5LIFEand1.5TECHscenariosoftheEurope-anCommissionLongTermStrategy.Theenergyproduction

deficitwhichresultedfromthiswascompensatedbyanincreaseinelectrificationlevels.

Biomassusewasreducedby26 %intheresidentialandtertiarysectors,by80 %inthemobilitysectorandby30 %intheindustry.ThishasbeencompensatedbyanincreaseindirectelectrificationcombinedwithP2Lintransportaccordingtothefollowingtable:

Thisadditionalelectricitydemandtriggeredanincreaseofdispatchablegenerationandtheadditionaldevelopmentof740and1,415 GWofRESrespectivelyin2040and2050.

AdditionalRESfordirectelectrificationhavebeenmod-elledaspartoftheelectricitysystemwhilethededicatedRESforP2LhavebeenmodelledoutsidetheelectricitysystemaccordingtotheP2Gapproach.

– Global Ambition

ThegasdemandforGlobalAmbitionin2050hasbeenre-computedfollowingalinearextrapolationofthedevel-opmentbetween2025and2040–withanewtotalgasdemandof3,800 TWhforGlobalAmbition.

Electricity demand increase by sector (TWh) 2040 2050

Residential 53 42

Tertiary 16 16

Transport– Direct electrification–Power-to-Liquid

35648

50905

Industry 142 126

Table7:ElectricitydemandincreaseinDistributedEnergy


SinceTYNDP 2018 ENTSOG and ENTSO-E havealignedtheirTYNDPtimelinesandprocessesleadingtothesameTYNDPpublicationtimeframes.Beforethattime,eachorganisationhaditsownindividualprocesswiththeENTSO-ETYNDP2016andENTSOGTYNDP2017respectively.ThejointdevelopmentoftheTYNDPScenariosintroducedattheTYNDP2018projectstartmustbehighlightedasoneofthemostsignificantprocessim-provementsteps,asENTSO-EandENTSOGpooledtheirScenarioBuildingeffortsandexpertiseintheframeoftheinterlinkedmodel.

Thefocusstudyontheinterlinkagebetweengasandelectricity 19,performedbyArtelysandpresentedtoCopenhagenInfrastructureForum2019,concludesthat

19 https://www.entsog.eu/methodologies-and-modelling#consistent-and-interlinked-electricity-and-gas-model

mostoftheinterlinkageiscapturedinthescenariosandthelevelofdirectinteractionmainlydependsontheassumptionsmadeonthedifferenttechnologiesforgastopowerandpowertogasconversion,aswellasonthehybridtechnologies.Thoseinteractionsdefiningtheinterlinkagebetweengasandelectricitythusdirectlyderivefromthestorylinesdefinedandselectedwiththestakeholders.

BothENTSOsconsistentlyworktomodernisetheirdata,toolsandmethodologiesbetweeneachreleaseofthescenarios.SomeofthekeyimprovementsfortheScenarios2020arepresentedbelow.ThemethodologiesusedbybothENTSOstoproducethescenariosarepresentedindetailintheAnnexofthisreport.

Improvements in 2020 Scenarios11

https://www.entsog.eu/methodologies-and-modelling#consistent-and-interlinked-electricity-and-gas-model


11.1 More sustainability-oriented Scenarios ( carbon budget )

WiththeintroductionofacarbonbudgetasaninputtotheCOP21scenarios,ENTSOGandENTSO-EcanassesswhatthetargetssetbytheCOP21requirefromtheenergysystembeyond2025andhence,supportthepolicydecision-makingprocess.

Thedevelopmentofthecarbonbudgetandtheinputassumptionstothescenarioshaveinvolvedawiderangeofstakeholdersincludingenvironmentalorganisation,participatingtothecredibilityofthetwoverydifferent

pathwaystheenergysystemcouldtaketowardsreachingthe EuropeanUnionclimateambitions.Buildingonpreviousexercise,ENTSOGandENTSO-Ehavekeptthecentralisedanddecentralisedapproachof,respectively,GlobalAmbitionandDistributedEnergyscenarios.Evenifthesescenariosshouldnotbeconsideredmorelikelythanothers,theywillallowENTSOGandENTSO-Etoconsidertheelectricityandthegassystemunderthemostcontrastedsituations,thusdeliveringthemostcomprehen-siveassessment.

11.2 Total Energy Scenarios ( Top-down )

WhereasENTSOs’TYNDP2018Scenariosweremainlybasedonbottom-upcollecteddataforthegasandelec-tricitysectors,forthefirsttime,theyhavedevelopedtop-downScenarioscapturingthefullenergysystem( allsectors,allfuels ).Inthissense,thejointWorkingGroupScenarioBuildingdevelopedanin-houseenergymodeltoolcalledthe“AmbitionTool”.

Themainobjectiveswere:

1) tobettermapthesectoralcouplingandtheassociatedinterdependencebetweengasandelectricitysector

2) toimprovethemethodologiestocaptureallGHGemis-sionsandtheirdevelopmentwithinatimeperiodandthusensurethatthescenariosareincompliancewiththeParisAgreementtargets( carbonbudgetmethodasstatedbytheIPCCSpecialReport ).

Itisapolicydriventop-downenergymodel,asnocostelementsareconsideredandislinkedtotheEurostat2015dataasprojectionstartingpoint.WorkingGroupScenarioBuildingislookingattheEuropeanambitionlevelwithleverssectoraltechnologysplit,fueltypes,supplysourcesetc.andisworkingoutthefutureenergycarriercontent( focusingonthegasandelectricitysystem ).

11.3 Electricity Demand

TRAPUNTA( TemperatureRegressionandloAdProjectionwithUNcertaintyAnalysis )isthenextstepinelectricityloadforecastingafteraboutoneyearofdevelopment.Thistoolisasoftwarethatallowstoperformelectricloadpredictionstartingfromdataanalysisofthehistoricaltimeseries( electricload,temperature,otherclimaticvariables )andevaluationofthefutureevolutionofthemarket( e. g.,

penetrationofheatpump,electricvehicles,batteries,pop-ulationandindustrialgrowth ).IthasbeendevelopedbyMilanoMultiphysicsforENTSO-E.TRAPUNTAisbasedonaninnovativemethodologyfortheelectricloadprojectionanalysisbasedonregression,modelorderreductionanduncertaintypropagation.


11.4 Gas Demand

Quality SplitTakingintoaccountrecenttechnologicandpoliticaltrends,ENTSOshavedecidedtoinvestigatethedemandformethaneandhydrogenseparately.Thetermgasthereforestandsforthesumofbothgastypes.

Daily gas peak demand computationAsforTYNDP2018Scenarios,thedailygaspeakdemandfiguresforgashavebeencollectedfromtheTSOsforthebottom-upscenarioNationalTrends.Forthetop-downsce-narios,astheannualdemandvaluesweredeterminedwiththeAmbitionTool,ENTSOshavedevelopedamethodologytocomputedailygaspeakdemandfiguresusingsectoralfullloadhoursandtemperature-demandregressioncurves.

Dunkelflaute climatic caseConsideringthelevelofdevelopmentofrenewablegenera-tioncapacitiesintheCOP21scenarios,especiallyin2040,ENTSOGandENTSO-EhavedevelopedforthefirsttimeaDunkelflauteclimaticcase( DF )toassessthepossibleimpactofadditionalgasdemandforpowergenerationwhenminimumvariablerenewablegenerationisavailablefortwoweeks.

11.5 Electricity Generation

Co-optimisationFollowingtheexchangewithinternalandexternalstake-holdersaco-optimisationofgenerationcapacityandgridwasperformed.Thisnewmethodincludesfollowingkeyimprovements:

- Endogenousandsimultaneousoptimisationofgenera-tioncapacityandinterconnectors

- UtilisationofscenariodependentCAPEXcosts,OPEXcostsandfuelpriceswithendogenousCO₂ leveladjustment

- EndogenousCO₂pricesettingasafunctionofcarbonbudgetasmaininvestmentlever

- Considerationofhouseholdsolarbatterystoragesys-tems,vehicletogridandindustrydemandsideresponse

- ImplementationofREStechnologyevolutionbytheusageoftimehorizon( 2025,2030and2040 )relatedRESinfeedtimeseries

Trajectories collectionTheScenarioBuildingprocessisdeveloping“top-down”scenariodatasetsthatarequantifiedusinganumberofoptimisationloopsaccordingtothestakeholderagreedstorylines.Inordertoimprovethescenarioquantificationbysettingplausibleboundaries,theWorkingGroupSce-narioBuildingestablishedaTrajectorydatacollectionforvariouscoresupplyanddemandelementsbasedonuptothreenationalscenarios( withlow,mediumandhighdevel-opmenttrajectories ).Themainaimofthiscomplementaryinformationistohelpbetterintegrateuncertaintiesonnationalpoliticaldecisionslikecoalphase-outs,nuclearfleetdevelopments,RESsupportschemesbutalsotoelaborateonupcomingtechnologieslikeelectricvehicles,batterystoragesorP2G.

Basedonthosedata,itispossibleto:

- Ensurecoherencywithnationalstudies

- Takeintoaccountnationalpoliciesandpoliticaldecisions/plans

- Setboundariesfortechnologydevelopments

- ComparetheoutcomesofENTSOGandENTSO-Escenarioswithnationalperspectives


11.6 Gas Supply

InTYNDP2018,gassupplyassumptionsconsistofmainlybottom-updatafordomesticproductionofnaturalgas,biomethaneandP2Gwithoutaqualitysplitinmethaneandhydrogen.

Import shareAsdoneinexternalstudies( e. g.EC’s“CleanPlanetforall” )ENTSOs’developedgenericassumptionsontheimportshareforgassupply.ThisenablesENTSOGandENTSO-Etotestthegasinfrastructureunderdifferentconditions( highimportshares,lowimportshares ).ENTSOsareconvincedthatcentralisationandde-centralisationwillhaveamajorimpactonfutureinfrastructureneeds.

BiomethaneTofurtherimprovethedataqualityandcapturelatesttrends,ENTSOGincollaborationwiththeconsultancyNavigant( previouslyEcofys )hasdevelopeda“Biomethane

Productiontool”,whichisbasedontheassumptionsofthe“GasforClimate”study.Thetoolconsidersanaerobicdigestionandthermalgasificationastechnologiestoproducebiomethane.TocapturethepotentialofbothtechnologiesitdifferentiatesbetweenseveralfeedstocktypesandgrowingregionswithinEurope.

Hydrogen supplyForthefirsttime,ENTSOshaveidentifiedtheneedforhydrogensupplyconsideringthreemajortechnologies:P2G,SteamMethaneReformingplusCCU/SandMethanePyrolysis.Theyhavedevelopedmethodologiestoidentifytheindigenousproductionofhydrogenbyaforementionedtechnologiesand,followingtheirassumptionsontheim-portshare,theneedfordirecthydrogenimportsand/ornaturalgasimportstoconvertitintohydrogeninEurope,respectively.

11.7 P2G and P2L

Forthetop-downscenarios,thequantificationoftheproductionofsynthetichydrogen,methaneandliquidviaP2GandP2Lwasextendedtoatwo-stepapproachforthetop-downscenarios.Inafirststep,curtailedelectricityfromtheelectricitymarketmodelisconsideredassourceofrenewableelectricitytoproducerenewablegases( hy-drogen,methaneandliquids ).Inasecondstep,additionalrenewableelectricityproductionisassumedandmodelledtomeetthedemandforrenewablegases.Thisisdoneviaa

dedicatedmodel,whichquantifiestheneededRES,P2GandP2Lcapacitiesforthepurposeofsupplyingsyntheticgas.

NexteditionswillprovidetheopportunitytofurtherenhancethemodellingofP2Xbytakingintoaccountdifferentconfigurations( e. g.P2GsuppliedbydedicatedRES,attheinterfaceofelectricityandgassystemsoratconsumerfacility )andanalyzingtheirimpactonelectricityandgasinfrastructures.

11.8 Data Visualisation Platform

Anonlinedatavisualisationplatformwassetuptoengagewithinternalandexternalstakeholdersandimprovethetransparencywithregardtothescenariooutcome.Stake-

holdershavesimplifiedaswellasextendeddataaccesswithonlineanalysisfunctions.


ENTSOGandENTSO-EarecurrentlyworkingonthefurtherdevelopmentoftheirInterlinkedModelandontheintegrationofthefocusstudyrecommendationsfortheidentificationofprojectsworthadualassessmentonbothgasandelectricitysystems.

ENTSOGcompleteditsprojectcollectionphaseinJuly2019.ForthefirsttimeENTSOGopeneditsTYNDPtoEnergyTransitionRelatedprojectsincludingbiomethane,P2Gandccs/uprojects.ENTSO-EiscollectingsubmissionsinOctober–November2019andwillrunasecondsub-missionwindowforfutureprojectsafterthereleaseofitsIdentificationofSystemNeeds2040studyinApril2020.

Overthecomingmonths,ENTSOGandENTSO-Ewillpursue their respectiveTYNDP2020developmentprocess,inaclosetimeline:

- TheelectricityandgasdraftTYNDPswillbepublishedinQ32020forpublicconsultation.

- FurthertoreceivingthepublicconsultationfeedbackaswellasACER’sopinion,ENTSOGandENTSO-EwillpublishthefinalTYNDPs,byend2020forgasandinspring2021forelectricity.

- BothTYNDPswillsupportthe5thPCIselectionprocess.

NationalTrendswillserveasbasisforENTSO-E’sIdentifi-cationofSystemNeedsstudy,whichassessespan-Euro-peannetworkneeds,theirimpactinregions,wheregridprojectsshouldbeconsidered,potentialneededpolicyadjustmentsandtechnicalchallenges.

Acost-benefitanalysis( CBA )ofelectricitytransmissionandstorageprojectswillbeperformedfortheNationalTrends( 2025and2030timehorizons ).Additionally,toillustratetherobustnessoftheproposedinfrastructureprojects,asubsetofCBAparameterswillbedeterminedforDistributedEnergyandGlobalAmbition( 2030timehorizon ).Projectswillalsobeassessedina‘CurrentTrends’scenario,anENTSO-Escenarionotincludedinthisreportwhichdescribesafuturewheretheenergytransitionisslowerthanplanned.

ThescenarioswillalsofeedintoprojectswithinENTSO-E’sMarketsandSystemOperationscommittee,suchaslook-ingatmarketdesignandsystemoperabilityin2030.

ENTSOGTYNDP2020willincludetheProject-SpecificCBAs( PS-CBAs )forthoseprojectshavingdeclaredtheirintentiontoapplyforthe5thPCIlist.FullPS-CBAswillbeperformedfortransmission,storageandLNGterminalgasprojects,andwillconsiderallscenariosandthewholetime-horizonoftheTYNDP( from2020to2040 ).EnergyTransitionRelated( ETR )projectswillbeassessedwithareducedandsustainability-orientedCBA,toassesshowtheycandeliverintermsofdecarbonisationoftheenergysystemandsupporttheEuropeanclimateambitions.

Next Steps12


ACER:AgencyfortheCooperationofEnergyRegulators.

BECCS:Bio-EnergyCarbonCaptureandStorage.CCSappliedtoBio-Energy,thusresultinginanetnegativeemissionofcarbondioxide.

Biomethane:Gaseousrenewableenergysourcederivedfromagriculturalbiomass( dedicatedcrops,by-productsandagriculturalwasteandanimalwaste ),agro-industrial( wastefromthefoodprocessingchain )andtheOrganicFractionMunicipalSolidWaste( OFMSW ).

Bottom-Up:ThisapproachofthescenariobuildingprocesscollectssupplyanddemanddatafromGasandElectricityTSOs.

Blue Hydrogen:HydrogenobtainedfromnaturalgasorindustrialresidualgasesbysplittingthemintohydrogenandCO₂.TheCO₂isthencapturedandstored/used.

CAGR:Compoundannualgrowthrate.

CAPEX:Capitalexpenditure.

Carbon budget:Thisistheamountofcarbondioxidetheworldcanemitwhilestillhavingalikelychanceoflimitingaverageglobaltemperatureriseto1.5°Cabovepre-indus-triallevels,aninternationallyagreed-upontarget.

Carbon price:costappliedtocarbonpollutiontoencour-agepolluterstoreducetheamountofgreenhousegasestheyemitintotheatmosphere.

CBA:CostBenefitAnalysiscarriedouttodefinetowhatextentaprojectisworthwhilefromasocialperspective.

CCS:CarbonCaptureandStorage.Processofsequestrat-ingCO₂andstoringitinsuchawaythatitwon’tentertheatmosphere.

CCU:CarbonCaptureandUsage.ThecapturedCO₂,in-steadofbeingstoredingeologicalformations,isusedtocreateotherproducts,suchasplastic.

CHP:Combinedheatandpower.

COP21:2015UnitedNationsClimateChanceConference.

Curtailed Electricity:Curtailmentisareductionintheoutputofageneratorfromotherwiseavailableresources( e. g.windorsunlight ),typicallyonanunintentionalbasis.Curtailmentscanresultwhenoperatorsorutilitiescontrolwindandsolargeneratorstoreduceoutputtominimizecongestionoftransmissionorotherwisemanagethesys-temorachievetheoptimummixofresources.

Coal phase-out:Coalisthemostcarbonintensivefossilfuelandphasingitoutisakeysteptoachievetheemis-sionsreductionsneededtolimitglobalwarmingto1.5°C,asenshrinedintheParisAgreement.

DSR:DemandSideResponse.Consumershaveanactiveroleinsofteningpeaksinenergydemandbychangingtheirenergyconsumptionaccordingtotheenergypriceandavailability.

( Kalte ) Dunkelflaute:Germanfor„( cold )darkdoldrums”expressesaclimatecase,whereinadditiontoa2-weekcoldspell,variableRESelectricitygenerationislowduetothelackofwindandsunlight.

EC:EuropeanCommission.

EV:Electricvehicle.

GCV:Grosscalorificvalue.Theheatproducedbycom-bustionofafuelataconstantpressureof1atmosphere,includingtheheatprovidedthecondensationofallvaporsproducedbythecombustion.Withnetcalorificvalueontheotherhandtheheatprovidedbcondensationisnotincluded( seealsoNCV ).

GDP:Grossdomesticproduct.

GHG:Greenhousegas.

Hybrid Heat Pump:heatingsystemthatcombinesanelectricheatpumpwithagascondensingboilertoopti-mizeenergyefficiency.

IEA:WorldEnergyOutlook.

Indirect electricity demand:Indirectelectrificationmeansthatelectricityisnotusedasadirectreplacementforfossilfuels,butasaninputinindustrialprocesses.

Glossary


LCOE:Levelisedcostsofelectricity.Itrepresentstheaver-agerevenueperunitofelectricitygeneratedthatwouldberequiredtorecoverthecostsofbuildingandoperatingageneratingplantduringanassumedfinanciallifeanddutycycle.

LNG:Liquefiednaturalgas.

LULUCF:LandUse,LandUseChangeandForestry.SinkofCO₂madepossiblebythefactthatatmosphericCO₂canaccumulateascarboninvegetationandsoilsinterrestrialecosystems.

NCV:Netcalorificvalue.Theheatproducedbycombustionofafuelataconstantpressureof1atmosphere,undertheconditionthatallwaterintheproductsremainsintheformofvapor.Withgrosscalorificvalueontheotherhand,theheatproducedbycondensationofallvaporsisalsoincluded( seealsoGCV ).

NECPs:NationalEnergyandClimatePlansarethenewframeworkwithinwhichEUMemberStateshavetoplan,inanintegratedmanner,theirclimateandenergyob-jectives,targets,policiesandmeasurestotheEuropeanCommission.CountrieswillhavetodevelopNECPsonaten-yearrollingbasis,withanupdatehalfwaythroughtheimplementationperiod.TheNECPscoveringthefirstperiodfrom2021to2030willhavetoensurethattheUnion’s2030targetsforgreenhousegasemissionreduc-tions,renewableenergy,energyefficiencyandelectricityinterconnectionaremet.

NGO:Non-governmentalOrganization.

OPEX:Operationalexpenditure.

P2G:Powertogas.Technologythatuseselectricitytoproducehydrogen( PowertoHydrogen–P2H₂ )bysplit-tingwaterintooxygenandhydrogen( electrolysis ).ThehydrogenproducedcanthenbecombinedwithCO₂toobtainsyntheticmethane( PowertoMethane–P2CH4 ).

P2L:Powertoliquids.Combinationofhydrogenfromelec-trolysisandFischer-Tropschprocesstoobtainsyntheticliquidfuels.

PCI:ProjectofCommonInterest.

Power-to-Hydrogen/P2Hydrogen:HydrogenobtainedfromP2H₂.

Power-to-Methane/P2Methane:Renewablemethane,couldbebiomethaneorsyntheticmethaneproducedbyrenewableenergysourcesonly.

PRIMES:ThePRIMESenergymodelsimulatestheEuro-peanenergysystemandmarketsonacountry-by-countrybasisandacrossEuropefortheentireenergysystem.Themodelprovidesprojectionsofdetailedenergybalances,bothfordemandandsupply,CO₂emissions,investmentindemandandsupply,energytechnologypenetration,pricesandcosts.

RES:Renewableenergysource.

Shale gas:Shalegasisnaturalgasthatisfoundtrappedwithinshaleformations( e. g.viafracking ).

Synthetic methane:fuelgasthatcanbeproducedfromfossilfuelssuchaslignitecoal,oilshale,orfrombiofuels( whenitisnamedbio-SNG )orfromrenewableelectricalenergy.

Top-Down:The“Top-DownCarbonBudget”scenariobuildingprocessisanapproachthatusesthe“bottom-up”modelinformationgatheredfromtheGasandElectricityTSOs.ThemethodologiesaredevelopedinlinewiththeCarbonBudgetapproach.

TRAPUNTA:TemperatureREgressionandloAdProjectionwithUNcertaintyAnalysis.Softwarethatallowstoperformelectricloadpredictionstartingfromdataanalysisofthehistoricaltimeseries( electricload,temperature,otherclimaticvariables )andevaluationofthefutureevolutionofthemarket( e. g.,penetrationofheatpump,electricvehicles,batteries,populationandindustrialgrowth ).IthasbeendevelopedbyMilanoMultiphysicsforENTSO-E.

TSO:TransmissionSystemOperator.

TYNDP:TenYearNetworkDevelopmentPlan.


List of Figures & Tables

Figures

Figure 1: NationalTrendsscenariointeractions withNECPs .....................................................................9

Figure 2: GHGemissioninENTSOS’scenarios .....................10

Figure 3: EU28CumulativeEmissionsinCOP21 ScenariosinMTCO₂ ................................................ 11

Figure 4: KeydriversofScenarioStorylines.......................... 14

Figure 5: TheTYNDP2020Scenariosaredefinedby threeStorylines ........................................................... 16

Figure 6: FinalenergydemandinCOP21scenarios ............18

Figure 7: Directelectricitydemandperscenario(EU28) ....19

Figure 8: Exampleofwinterhourlydemandprofile forasinglemarketnode ............................................20

Figure 9: Exampleofsummerhourlydemandprofile forasinglemarketnode ............................................20

Figure 10: Peakelectricitydemandperscenario(EU28) ....... 21

Figure 11: Numberofelectricandhybridvehiclesand heatpumps(excl.districtheating)comparedtoarangebasedonanalysisofthirdpartyreports ..... 22

Figure 12: Sectoralbreakdownoftotalgasdemand inEU28 .......................................................................... 23

Figure 13: Gasdemandinhighdemandcases (Peak,2-Weekcoldspell,Dunkelflaute) ............... 23

Figure 14: Totalmethaneandhydrogendemandin COP21scenarios ....................................................... 24

Figure 15: PrimaryenergymixandRESsharein DistributedEnergy(EU28) ........................................25

Figure 16: PrimaryenergymixandRESsharein GlobalAmbition(EU28) .............................................25

Figure 17: Shareoffinalelectricitydemand coveredbyRES ............................................................ 26

Figure 18: ElectricitygenerationmixinDistributedEnergy(EU28) ............................................................................27

Figure 19: ElectricitycapacitymixinDistributedEnergy (EU28) ............................................................................27

Figure 20: Peakgeneration,demandsideresponseand batterytechnology(EU28) ........................................28

Figure 21–23:NationalTrends,DistributedEnergy, GlobalAmbition...........................................................29

Figure 24: Gassourcecomposition–NationalTrends ........... 31

Figure 25: Gassourcecomposition–DistributedEnergy ..... 31

Figure 26: Gassourcecomposition–GlobalAmbition.......... 31

Figure 27: Capacityforhydrogenproduction .......................... 33

Figure 28: Generationmixforhydrogenand derivedfuels ................................................................. 33

Figure 29: GHGemissionreductionpathwaysuntil2050 .... 34

Figure 30: CO₂emissionsintheElectricityGeneration .........35

Figure 31: Decarbonisationpathofgas inDistributedEnergy ................................................. 36

Figure 32: Decarbonisationpathofgas inGlobalAmbition ...................................................... 36

Figure 33: Marginalcosts ..............................................................37

Figure 34: SolarPVCapacityFactor ..........................................38

Figure 35: RESLCOEinGlobalAmbition2040 .......................39

Figure 36: RESLCOEinDistributedEnergy2040 ..................39

Figure 37: Benchmarkingofprojectedelectricitydemand andwind/solargenerationforEU28 ...................... 41

Figure 38: Benchmarkingofprojectedelectrificationrate forEU28 ........................................................................ 41

Figure 39: Benchmarkingofprojectedelectrificationin theindustrialsectorforEU28 .................................. 42

Figure 40: Benchmarkingofprojectedelectrificationof residentialandcommercialsectorsinEU28 ......... 42

Figure 41: Benchmarkingofprojectedelectrificationin thetransportsectorforEU28 .................................. 42

Figure 42: Totalprimarygasdemand–Benchmarkwith ECLongTermStrategy ............................................... 43

Figure 43: Primarygasdemandforfinaluseandfor powergeneration ........................................................ 44

Figure 44: Renewablegasproduction– ENTSOsvsECLTS(P2X,1.5TECH,1.5LIFE) ........45

Figure 45: Energyimportsin2050byenergycarrier ............. 46

Figure 46: Gasimportsperscenarioandperyear................... 46

Figure 47: CCSin2050inENTSOsandECscenarios ...........47

Figure 48: Summaryoffuelpricereferences ...........................48

Tables

Table 1: CumulativeemissionsandrequirednetnegativeemissionsinDistributedEnergy .............................. 12

Table 2: StorylineCentralMatrix ............................................15

Table 3: AnnualEU-28electricitydemandvolumesand theassociatedgrowthrate .......................................19

Table 4: AnnualpeakdemandandCARGperscenario ..... 21

Table 5: WindandSolarCapacityFactorCharacteristics ..38

Table 6: FuelpricesinTYNDP 2020scenarios ....................48

Table 7: Electricitydemandincreasein DistributedEnergy ......................................................54

Joint-Publishers

ENTSOG

EuropeanNetworkof TransmissionSystemOperators forGas

AvenuedeCortenbergh100 1000Brussels,Belgium

www.entsog.eu

ENTSO-E

EuropeanNetworkof TransmissionSystemOperators forElectricity

AvenuedeCortenbergh100 1000Brussels,Belgium

www.entsoe.eu

Co-authors

OlivierLebois PieterBoersmaDavidMcGowanThomasRzepczykCihanSönmezDantePowellMariaFernandez

MagdalenaBoguckaLouisWatineMartinGraversgaardNielsenWGSB SCNWG RGGroups

Design DreiDreizehnGmbH,Berlin|www.313.de

Pictures

Page4/6/17:CourtesyofTeréga Page9:CourtesyofAmberGrid Page13/49:CourtesyofStatnett Page37:CourtesyofTenneT Page40:CourtesyofInfrastruttureTrasportoGas/Edison Page55:CourtesyofGasum Page59:CourtesyofNationalGrid

Publishing date

June2020

i Imprint

European Network ofTransmission System Operators

for Electricity

TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report – Final Report, June 2020 · 2020-07-02 · 4 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG...

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