TYNDP 2013-2022 Presentation of the concept

Olivier Lebois

Senior Adviser, System Development

5th TYNDP Workshop – Brussels – 20 June 2012

TYNDP 2013-2022 background

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Regulatory requirements

Supply adequacy outlook > Check that a reasonable range of demand scenarios may be covered by potential supply

scenarios

Assessment of the resilience of the system > European gas infrastructures should enable a supply adequacy in every country and

under a large range of situations

> Such assessment is based on the modelling of the European gas system

Consistence with regional and national plans > Consistence in scenarios and cases

> Comparable results

“Energy system wide analysis” is upcoming > Future Energy Infrastructure Guidelines could reinforce the role of ENTSOG TYNDP in

measuring the impact of infrastructure projects on gas system resilience

> Change in assessment details but not in its nature

Evolution based on stakeholders’ feedback

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Public consultation & ACER’s opinion on TYNDP 2011-2020 > Most stakeholders together with ACER have acknowledged the big improvements of

the TYNDP 2011-2020 compared to the pilot version

> Main improvements expected in:

Demand analysis

Market integration assessment

Stakeholders’ involvement

Stakeholder Joint Working Sessions > 7 sessions organized between January and May this year around demand, supply,

infrastructure projects, security of supply and market integration

> Evolution from a common understanding of current TYNDP to a more elaborated concept (scenarios, cases, methodologies, indicators, edition…)

Bilateral talks > Help stakeholders to first understand TYNDP big picture

> Best solution for very detailed points or confidential issues

Resulting concept

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Confirmation of TYNDP 2011-2020 directions > As in current TYNDP, assessment of infrastructure resilience in a highly uncertain

environment will be based on a sensitivity study

> Methodological evolution should prove the robustness of previous TYNDP results

Addressing the 3 pillars of European energy policy > In addition to security of supply and market integration, sustainability will be first

approach through gas demand breakdown

Definition of the spectrum of situations to be covered > Definition of assessment surface through scenarios and cases selection

Methodology and indicators > Definition of assessment depth through indicators

TYNDP process

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TYNDP 2011-2020 Feedback: - Public consultation - ACER’s opinion - 3rd & 4th TYNDP Workshops - 7 Stakeholder Joint Working Sessions

TYNDP 2013-2022 concept presented today

Data collection

Scenarios edition

Cases edition

Supply adequacy outlook (European level)

Country & Project profiles

Modelling

Overall analysis &

final edition

Approval process before public release

Report structure

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Aggregated supply adequacy outlook > Demand scenarios

> Supply scenarios

European gas infrastructure > Infrastructure scenarios translated into network-market topology

Infrastructure assessment > Definition of cases and methodologies

> Historical background of the Reference Case

> Investment gap identification

> Indicators assessing the completion of the 3 pillars of European energy policy

Annexes > Detailed country and project profiles

> Input and output data from the assessment

Supply adequacy outlook

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Definition of the surface to be explored

Extension of the scenario-based approach > Previous scenarios have to be updated according latest developments and

complemented with additional ones to enable further assessment

Striking the right balance > Scenarios defining the envelop of the cone have to stress the infrastructures still being

within a realistic range in order not to undermine gap identification and indicators

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European gas infrastructure

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Country & Infrastructure project profiles

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Country profiles > Main figures on national gas market

> Overview of existing infrastructures

Infrastructure project profiles > Most comprehensive database of European gas infrastructure projects

Pipes, UGS and LNG

Project promoters: TSOs and third parties

Broader than EU scope

Cross-border use

> General information on projects including detailed overview of their timeline

> Identification of changes since last edition

> Basic information for modeling purpose

A dual market/network topology

12 Model built on entry/exit zone as the basic block in order to ensure consistence

with TSO commercial products

Infrastructure assessment

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Definition of scenarios and cases

Supply and demand cases derived from scenarios > They are developed in parallel and will benefit from the work carried out by

ENTSOG since last edition (literature, historical database, experience…)

Infrastructure clustering > Infrastructure project timelines differ widely depending on project type and

countries then clustering used for modelling will remain based on:

2 scenarios: “existing infra. + FID” & “Existing infra. + FID + non-FID”

3 cases: 2013, 2017 & 2022

> More detailed information on project status will be provided through a global chart

Events > Slight evolution in the definition of disruptions (especially technical ones) and UGS

low deliverability in comparison with TYNDP 2011-2020

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The 200 cases of TYNDP 2013-2022 defined the surface on which European gas infrastructure will be assessed

A little bit of historical background

Inform the Past period > Past Period for TYNDP 2013-2022 is the 3-year period between 2009 and 2011

> This period is used as an input for the definition of import supply shares of the Reference Cases

Provide background to the gap identification and indicators > Information on the Past Period will concern:

Demand level

Supply by source and route

> Such information should help the reader to analyze deviation between Reference Case and extreme scenarios/cases of the sensitivity study

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Investment gaps & Indicators

Gap identification based on Remaining Flexibility > Received feedback confirmed the approach (methodology and thresholds)

> Report structure should ease result interpretation (gaps & proposed projects)

Main improvement related to diversification indexes > Most indicators cover both Security of Supply and Market Integration

> Diversification of sources and routes are measurable under a supply/infrastructure perspective

> Source influence will be considered under various flow patterns

> Consideration of LNG embedded diversification

Tricky interpretation > Indicators are all linked to the considered scenarios and cases

> The most robust interpretation is in the evolution of the indicators

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Where are we in the process?

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Process timeline

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> Since 4th TYNDP WS last September, half of the process has been used to define the concept

> A robust and stable concept will enable ENTSOG to collect data and draft the report efficiently

> Communication on concept should help the future readers

ENTSOG TYNDP 2013-2022 ENTSOG TYNDP 2013-2022TYNDP Concept S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Report edition J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J

Launch of TYNDP 2013-2022 process Modelling

TYNDP Workshop Simulation

Internal preparation Result analysis

SJWS Macro-analysis

S&D, SoS, Mkt Int, Infra & Model Country profiles

Concept approval Infrastructure projects

INV WG opinion Supply-demand balance

Board approval Report editing

Concept presentation Layout and structure definition

TYNDP Workshop Report consistence monitoring

Data collection process S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Release process and consultation J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J

Infrastructure projects Release process

Data collection process INV WG opinion

Data checking Board approval & GA approval

Existing infrastructure and demand Public release

Data collection process Public consultation

Data checking Public consultation

Supply TYNDP follow-up workshop

Data investigation Responses analysis

Scenario and case generation Board approval

Scenario and case generation Formal submission to ACER

2011 2012 2012 2013

Next steps

Data collection process > All data would have to be collected by mid-September then checked by the end of

September

> Internal ENTSOG process for demand, supply and TSOs’ projects

> Third-party infrastructure project collection to start now

Macro-analysis and simulations > Analysis of demand and supply at European level

> Modelling of cases and result analysis

> Report drafting will focus on the clarity of the results

Report edition and approval > Major report requiring extensive approval process

> Targeted public release for February 2013 opening a 3-month formal consultation period before submission to the ACER

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Summary on the general concept

Should prove the robustness of previous report > Potential changes in the results should derived rather from the evolution of

considered scenarios than methodological improvement

> Methodological improvements aim at providing more details and confidence to the readers

> Scenarios/cases and indicators should ensure comparability with previous edition and improve robustness

The challenges for ENTSOG in developing the TYNDP > Some expectations exceed the scope of the report and are rather related to the

impact of new business rules implementation (e.g. Network Codes)

> The huge variety of stakeholders leads sometimes to contradictory expectations

> Ability to provide data beyond TSOs’ remit or pragmatic feedback is often lower than expectations

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TYNDP aims at providing meaningful information to decision-makers and not at central planning of European infrastructures

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May your feedback be with us

Olivier Lebois, Senior adviser, System Development ENTSOG -- European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas Av. De Cortenbergh 100, B-1000 Brussels EML: Olivier.Lebois@entsog.eu T: + 32 2 894 5105 WWW: www.entsog.eu