Two Wheeler Industry - Probability Distribution
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Transcript of Two Wheeler Industry - Probability Distribution
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Xzk Zbffcft Lihv}xt| li Lihla0 Tl}lij Hfgaih
D|0
Iloblc Jv~xa 1>EI'141
]avtadb Xbahail 1>EI'1>4
]batvi Acl~vtla 1>HG'18:
]tloaixb Okihvtl 1>EI'1><
Xv}bat Jv~xa 1>HG'152
Xv}bat Jv~xa 1>EI'116
Ulia|ao ]ao}fia 1>BT'>85
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Xzk'Zbffcft Lihv}xt| a} }ffi Xkha|
Lixtkhvmxlki
Fuft| ~k}}f}}lki l} a }xaxfgfix) ]k atf xbf xzk zbffcft}) Li eamx# xzk zbffcft} atf gktf
xbai xbax) A jkkh'ckkolij xzk'zbffcft kt gkxktdlof ikx kic| lg~tf}} kxbft}# dvx mai jk a
ckij za| li gaolij |kvt clef mkiufilfix) Xzk zbffcft} clof dlof} aih }mkkxft} atf xbf
}|gdkc ke ga}} xtai}~ktxft}) Gkxktlpfh xzk zbffcft} gaof clef a ba}}cf etff `kvtif|
Xzk zbffcft gaiveamxvtft} atf zfcc azatf ke xbflt tl}lij hfgaih aih bfimf# atf xffglij
v~ xbf gatofx zlxb ifz ~tkhvmx} fuft| ha|) Gaiveamxvtft} atf xatjfxlij ckz limkgf
}fmxlki} ac}k zlxb }kgf mbfa~ gkxktdlof} a} xbf| atf limtfa}lijc| dfmkglij xbf ~kxfixlac
mki}vgft}) ]fflij xbf jtfax hfgaih ke xbf xzk zbffcft}# Lixftiaxlkiac avxkgkdlcf jlaix}
atf bfahlij xkzath} Lihla aih mkccadktaxlij zlxb xbf avxk gatofx}) Li kthft xk gffx xbf
}o|tkmofxlij hfgaih} ke xbf xzk zbffcft}# ha|'xk'ha| }zaiolf}x dlof} zlxb bljb'~kzftfh
efaxvtf} atf cavimbfh li xbf gatofx xk axxtamx xbf garlgvg dv|ft})
Mvttfix }mfiatlk
]limf @aivat| xbl} |fat# xbf hfgaih ekt gkhfc} clof Bftk Bkiha“} Oatlpga aih Bvio# Da`a`
Avxk“} 1>>mm Hl}mkuft HX]']l aih ^vc}at 1=6 C] aih \agaba“} T16 ba} gktf xbai hkvdcfh)
Da`a` Avxk ba} a zalxlij cl}x ke xbtff zffo} ekt xbflt xk~' }fcclij ~tkhvmx ^vc}at# ~v}blijhfgaih ekt xbf}f dlof} v~ xk 2>#>>> vilx} ~ft gkixb etkg 66#>>> vilx}) Bkiha Gkxktm|mcf
% ]mkkxft Lihla "BG]L, ba} a zalxlij ~ftlkh ke ekvt zffo} ekt xbflt }mkkxft} Amxlua aih Hfk)
Xbl} |fat# xbf gkxktm|mcf }fjgfix ba} jtkzi d| gktf xbai a qvatxft zlxb <8 caob dlof} }kch
amtk}} xbf mkvixt|) Xbl} l} xbf bljbf}x ivgdft ke dlof} fuft }kch li xbf ckmac gatofx# zlxb
gk}x mki}vgft} ~lmolij ~tfglvg aih hfcvrf gkhfc} zlxb ma~amlx| ke 16>mm) Xbf zbkcf ke
ca}x |fat }az :8)= caob dlof} }kch# ammkthlij xk ]kmlfx| ke Lihlai Avxkgkdlcf Gaiveamxvtft}
"]LAG,)
Xzk'zbffcft ga`kt} mcfatc| hlh ikx fr~fmx xbl} }vtjf li hfgaih) ]limf @aivat|# hfgaih ba}
}vtjfh d| 4>&) Mkg~ailf} atf }xtfagclilij k~ftaxlki}# k~filij ifz gaiveamxvtlij
eamlclxlf}# }xtfijxbfilij hl}xtldvxlki aih lg~tkulij ckjl}xlm k~ftaxlki})Lihla \agaba Gkxkt}
ba} limtfa}fh xbf ivgdft ke }blex} xk maxft xk xbf tl}lij hfgaih) Xbf mkg~ai| ba} a zalxlij
xlgf ke 4 ”5 zffo} ekt dlof} clof \PE'T16# EP }ftlf} aih Eapft) Xbf v~}vtjf l} ikz tfecfmxfh
li xbf }acf} eljvtf}) Li Gatmb# Lihla \agaba }kch 4:#85> dlof}# a xbtffekch jtkzxb kuft ca}x
|fat) Bkiha Gkxktm|mcf % ]mkkxft Lihla "BG]L, l} liuf}xlij T} 8): dlcclki xk }fx v~ a }fmkih
~tkhvmxlki ~caix li Lihla# zlxb ai aiivac ma~amlx| ke 5 caob vilx}) Xbf ifz a}}fgdc| clif zlcc
df k~ftaxlkiac d| }fmkih bace ke 4>11) Lx l} ac}k limtfa}lij ma~amlx| ax lx} frl}xlij ~caix xk 1)5
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glcclki vilx} d| ifrx |fat) Xbf mkg~ai| }kch 56#222 dlof} li Gatmb xbl} |fat# mkg~atfh zlxb
}acf ke 8>#=5> vilx} li xbf }agf ~ftlkh ca}x |fat) Zblcf Bftk Bkiha# zblmb mkixtkc} ifatc|
bace ke xbf hkgf}xlm xzk'zbffcft gatofx# l} li xaco} zlxb uatlkv} }xaxf jkuftigfix}#
limcvhlij Xaglc Iahv# Oatiaxaoa aih Jv`atax# xk }fx v~ a ifz eamxkt|) Xbf mkg~ai| }kch
818#5=2 dlof} li Gatmb 4>1># a} mkg~atfh xk =#6=#=84 dlof} }kch hvtlij xbf }agf ~ftlkh a|fat ajk) Ax ~tf}fix# xbf Lihlai xzk'zbffcft gatofx l} hkgliaxfh d| Bftk Bkiha# zblmb
mkixtkc} ifatc| bace xbf (2 glcclki gatofx) Da`a` Avxk l} xbf }fmkih'catjf}x xzk zbffcft
gaoft zlxb ifatc| a elexb ke xbf gatofx)
Ma}f }xvh|0 Xzk Zbffcft Lihv}xt| li Lihla0 Tl}lij Hfgaih
Lixtkhvmxlki
Xbf xzk zbffcft lihv}xt| li Lihla ba} }ffi xtfgfihkv} jtkzxb aexft xbf aiikvimfgfix ke
xbf ifz lihv}xtlac ~kclm| li 1<<1) Lihla l} xbf }fmkih catjf}x ~tkhvmft ke xzk zbffcft} li xbf
zktch) ]fuftac eamxkt} bauf mkixtldvxfh xk xbf tl}f ke xbf xzk zbffcft lihv}xt|) Aexft
cldftacl}axlki# xbf dv|lij ~kzft ke xbf Lihlai glhhcf mca}} ba} limtfa}fh dfmav}f ke xbf
limtfa}f li xbf hl}~k}adcf limkgf) Xbf fa}| aualcadlclx| ke eliaimlac a}}l}xaimf etkg daio}
aih kxbft eliaimlac li}xlxvxlki} ba} ac}k dffi a maxac|}x li xbf ea}x jtkzxb ke xbf xzk'
zbffcft lihv}xt|) Aikxbft ga`kt tfa}ki ekt xbf limtfa}f li hfgaih ekt xzk zbffcft} l} xbf
~kkt ~vdclm xtai}~ktx }|}xfg li gk}x ~atx} ke xbf mkvixt|) Xzk zbffcft} atf a mkiufilfix
aih mbfa~ gkhf ke xtai}~ktx ekt gk}x ke Lihlai eaglclf})
Xzk'Zbffcft Aualcadlclx| aih ]acf} li Lihla
Xbf Lihlai xzk'zbffcft gatofx }fjgfix limcvhf} gkxktm|mcf}# }mkkxft} aih gk~fh}) Xbf
kuftacc gatofx xtfih l} v~zath li acc xbf xbtff }fjgfix}) Xadcf 5)>1 frbldlx} xbf }acf} ke xzk
zbffcft} li hleeftfix }fjgfix})
Xadcf 5)>1
]acf} ke gkxktm|mcf}# }mkkxft}# aih gk~fh} li Lihla li hleeftfix |fat}
]acf} "Vilx},
Xzk
zbffcft
x|~f
4>>='4>>8 4>>8'4>>6 4>>6'4>>5 4>>5'
4>>:
4>>:'
4>>2"f}xlgaxf,
4>>2'
4>><"ektfma}x,
Gkxktm|mcf} 8=6::=4 64812:5 51<556= :><4:: 5688824 5<<5>61
]mkkxft} <<<24 <2=14: <<4<26 <:5>18 1>:66<1 112=16>
Gk~fh} ==162: =6115< =:6<44 =<=816 8=1<2= 851=62
Kzlij xk xbf hfmclif li xbf gkxktm|mcf# xbf xzk zbffcft lihv}xt| ba} zlxif}}fh a hfmclif li
xbf gkxktm|mcf }fjgfix# xbf xzk zbffcft lihv}xt| ba} zlxif}}fh a hfmclif li }acf} adkvx
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6& li fatc| 4>>2) Lttf}~fmxluf ke xbl} hfmclif# fr~ftx} atf ke xbf k~lilki xbax xbf xzk
zbffcft lihv}xt| l} ki ai v~}zlij)
Ga`kt ^ca|ft li xbf Gatofx
Bftk Bkiha Gkxkt} Cxh# Da`a` Bkchlij % Liuf}x) Cxh# aih XU] Gkxkt Mk) Cxh atf xbf xbtff
ga`kt ~ca|ft} li xbf gatofx) Bftk Bkiha l} xbf gatofx cfahft li xbf xzk'zbffcft lihv}xt|)
Lx dfmagf xbf elt}x Lihlai mkg~ai| xk mtk}} mvgvcaxluf }acf} ke : glcclki vilx} li 4>>=) Zlxb
a mag~alji }ckjai ke –Elcc lx' ]bvx lx' Ektjfx lx‗) Bftk Bkiha ba} dffi mki}l}xfixc| jtkzlij
aexft lx} limf~xlki) Da`a` ac}k ba} a eltg ekkxlij li xbf gatofx aih l} taiofh xbf }fmkih li xbf
gatofx) XU] l} xbf xblth catjf}x xzk'zbffcft mkg~ai| li Lihla) Xadcf 5)>4# 5)>=# 5)>8 jluf
}kgf }xaxl}xlm} adkvx xbf xzk'zbffcft lihv}xt|)
Xadcf 5)>4
Gatofx }fjgfixaxlki ke xzk zbffcft}
]fjgfix ]batf "&,
Iktxb =4
Fa}x <
Zf}x 4:
]kvxb =4
Xadcf 5)>=
^tkhvmx uatlaxlki} li xzk'zbffcft}
X|~f ]batf "&,
Gkxktm|mcf} 55
]mkkxft} 44
Gk~fh} 11
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Xadcf 5)>8
Cfahlij ~ca|ft} li xbf xzk zbffcft lihv}xt|
Mkg~ai| ]batf "&,
Bftk Bkiha =5Da`a` Avxk 4=
XU] gkxkt} 41
\agaba 6
Bkiha Gkxkt} 6
CGC 8
Olifxlm Fijlifftlij 8
Ga`f}xlm Avxk 8
Tk|ac Fielfch >)6
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Ma}f }xvh| Qvf}xlki}
1) Lx ba} dffi gfixlkifh li xbf ma}f xbax xbf gatofx }batf ke xbf gkxkt m|mcf} l}
55&) Ekt a taihkg }ag~cf ke 6> ~kxfixlac mv}xkgft}# zbax l} fr~fmxfh ivgdft
ke mv}xkgft} zbk zlcc ~vtmba}f gkxkt m|mcf}; Zbax l} xbf ~tkdadlclx| xbax 1> ktefzft mv}xkgft} zlcc ~vtmba}f gkxkt m|mcf};
Mkihlxlki} ekt a~~c|lij Dlikglac Hl}xtldvxlki0
a) Kvxmkgf l} gvxvacc| frmcv}luf0 Bftf xbf mv}xkgft zlcc flxbft dv| a
gkxktm|mcf kt ikx dv| lx) Bfimf xbf kvxmkgf l} gvxvacc| frmcv}luf)
d) Taihkg uatladcf l} tf}vcx ke mkvix}0 Bftf lx mai df mkvixfh xbf ivgdft
ke mv}xkgft} zbk zlcc dv| a gkxktm|mcf)
m) Xtlac} atf lihf~fihfix0 Bftf lx mai df mcfatc| }ffi xbax xbf hfml}lki xk
dv| xbf gkxktm|mcf d| xbf xblth mv}xkgft hkf} ikx gaof ai| lg~amx ki
xbf hfml}lki ke xbf xfixb mv}xkgft)
h) ^tkdadlclx| tfgali} }agf ekt famb xtlac0 Xbf ~tkdadlclx| xbax a mv}xkgft
zlcc dv| a gkxktm|mcf kt ikx zlcc tfgali xbf }agf etkg kif xtlac xk
aikxbft)
]limf zf atf adcf xk evcelc acc xbf mkihlxlki} ke Dlikglac hl}xtldvxlki bfimf zf
mai a~~c| xbf Dlikglac xbfktfg bftf)
^tkdadlclx| ~ 7 >)55
i 7 6>
F"r, 7 i * ~
7 >)55 * 6>
7 ==
A~~tkrlgaxfc| == mv}xkgft} atf fr~fmxfh xk ~vtmba}f gkxktm|mcf}
etkg a taihkg }ag~cf ke 6> ~kxfixlac mv}xkgft})
R7Ivgdft ke mv}xkgft} zbk zlcc ~vtmba}f gkxktm|mcf}
^"R≨1>, 7 ^"R7>, / ^"R71, / ^"R74, / ))))))))))) / ^"R71>,
76>
M> * ">)55,>
*">)=8,6>
/6>
M1 * ">)55,1
* ">)=8,8<
/6>
M4
*">)55,4 * ">)=8, 82/ ))))))))))))))))))/ 6>M1> * ">)55,1> * ">)=8,8>
7 =)==2 * 1>'11
Xbf lixft~tfxaxlki etkg xbf adkuf uacvf l} xbax ivgdft ke mv}xkgft}
dv|lij gkxktm|mcf} zlcc df gktf xbai xbf 1> }limf xbf ~tkdadlclx| ke 1>
kt cf}} xbai 1> mv}xkgft} dv|lij xbf gkxktm|mcf} l} ifjcljldcf)
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4) ]v~~k}f Bftk Bkiha ba} lg~cfgfixfh a qvaclx| lg~tkufgfix ~tkjtaggf) Xbf
mkg~ai| dfclfuf} xbax xbf ga`kt mkg~calix} atf ^kl}}ki hl}xtldvxfh ax ai
auftajf taxf ke 1> mkg~calix}+ 1>#>>> gkxkt m|mcf} }kch li xbf elt}x gkixb ke xbf
}acf}) Xk uftle| xbf tf}vcx# xbf mkg~ai| mkccfmx} xbf haxa adkvx xbf }acf} ke xbf
elt}x 1>#>>> gkxktm|mcf} }kch) Lx kdxali} xbf liektgaxlki xbax =6 mv}xkgft} baufga`kt mkg~calix} adkvx xbf gkxktm|mcf} xbax xbf| bauf ~vtmba}fh) Xbf
gaiajfgfix l} uft| ~atxlmvcat adkvx xbf qvaclx| ke lx} ~tkhvmx) V}f ^kl}}ki
hl}xtldvxlki aih fraglif zbfxbft xbf auftajf taxf ke mkg~calix} ba} limtfa}fh
kt zbfxbft xbf}f mkg~calix} atf d| mbaimf)
R 7 Ivgdft ke Mkg~calix}
ο 7 1> ~ft 1>#>>> gkxktm|mcf}
^"R 7 =6, 7 f'ο
οr
+r!
7 f'1>
*1>=6
+ =6!
7 8)8 * 1>'1>
Xbf lixft~tfxaxlki zblmb mai df gahf etkg adkuf aiac|}l} l} xbax }limf
xbf ~tkdadlclx| l} uft| ckz zf mai lieft xbax xbf mkg~calix} bauf
ba~~fifh d| mbaimf)
=) ]v~~k}f Bftk Bkiha ba} 14> hfacft} hl}xtldvxfh acc kuft xbf mkvixt|) Xbf
mkg~ai| zaix} xk mkihvmx a hfacft }axl}eamxlki }vtuf|) Xbf mkg~ai| zaix} xk
}fcfmx eluf hfacft} etkg xbf zbkcf cl}x ke hfacft}) Lx ba} 14 hfacft} li Gahb|a
^tahf}b) Zbax l} xbf ~tkdadlclx| xbax kif kt gktf taihkgc| }fcfmxfh hfacft l}
ckmaxfh li Gahb|a ^tahf}b;
R 7 ]fcfmxlij a hfacft li Gahb|a ^tahf}b
^"R71, 7 14+14>
7 >)1
^"R≦1, 7 1 ” ^"R7>,
7 1 ” 6M> * ">)1,
>* ">)<,
6
7 >)81
Xbf ~tkdadlclx| xbax kif kt gktf kvx ke a jtkv~ ke 6 hfacft} xk df }fcfmxfh
etkg xbf fixltf cl}x >e 14> hfacft} l} ckmaxfh li Gahb|a ^tahf}b l} 81&)