Two solitudes - how seasonality biases drought from tree rings
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TWOSOLITUDES
how seasonality biases drought records from tree rings
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TWOSOLITUDES
how seasonality biases drought records from tree rings
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why are Canadian streamflow reconstructions so lousy?
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Canada USA
explainedvariance
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Canada USA
explainedvariance
Woodhouse et al., 2006Upper Colorado River
Woodhouse, 2007Middle Boulder Creek
Meko et al., 2001Sacramento River
Meko et al., 2007Colorado River
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Canada USA
explainedvariance
Woodhouse et al., 2006Upper Colorado River
Woodhouse, 2007Middle Boulder Creek
Meko et al., 2001Sacramento River
Meko et al., 2007Colorado River
Beriault and Sauchyn, 2006Churchill River
Watson and Luckman, 2005Bow River
Case and MacDonald, 2003Saskatchewan River
Gedalof et al., 2007Columbia River
Bonin and Burn, 2005Athabasca River
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why are Canadian tree rings not connected to climate modes?
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Janice Lough and Hal Fritts
The Southern Oscillation and tree rings: 1600 - 1961Journal of Applied Meteorology 24, 1985
Roseanne D’Arrigo and Gordon Jacoby
A thousand year record of northwestern New Mexico winter precipitation reconstructed from tree rings and its relation to El Niño and the Southern OscillationThe Holocene 1, 1991
David Stahle and collaborators
Experimental dendroclimatic reconstruction of the Southern OscillationBulletin of the American Meteorological Society 79, 1998
Stahle et al., 1998
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Prairie ringwidth records138
Significant correlation with ENSO4
Expected from random chance6.9
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seasonality
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Trees, seasonality and climate forcings
The southwestern US
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Trees, seasonality and climate forcings
The Canadian Prairies
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DROUGHT AND SEASONALITY
1How does the connection between reconstructed drought and seasonal precipitation vary across North America?
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DROUGHT AND SEASONALITY
1How does the connection between reconstructed drought and seasonal precipitation vary across North America?
CLIMATE MODES AND TREE RINGS
2 In which regions are drought reconstructions most strongly connected to remote climate forcings (ENSO, PDO, AMO)?
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The North American Drought Atlas
Cook et al., 2007, Earth Science Reviews
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Cook et al., 2007, Earth Science Reviews
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CORRELATIONCOMPOSITESCOHERENCE
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PART ONEtree rings, drought and seasonality
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significant (α=0.05)
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instrumental tree rings
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SUMMER PRECIPITATION
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WINTER PRECIPITATION
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do tree rings replicate these patterns?
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+
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summer
winter
mixed
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DOMINANT
exclusive
not
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David Meko and Chris Baisan
Pilot study of latewood-width of conifers as an indicator of variability of summer rainfall in the North American monsoon regionInternational Journal of Climatology 21, 2001
...the regional summer precipitation signal is strong in Pseudotsuga menziesii latewood-width [in southeastern Arizona].
““
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Source: Environment Canada, Adjusted Historical Canadian Climate Data, 1895 – 2006
Medicine Hat, Alberta
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45
Prairie ringwidth records
138Significant correlation with ENSO
4Expected from random chance
6.9
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ENSO and winter precipitation
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PART TWOdrought records and climate modes
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PDSI PDOAMO
ENSO
from tree rings
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are these signals present in reconstructed drought?
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Julia Cole and Ed CookThe changing relationship between ENSO variability and moisture balance in the continental United StatesGeophysical Research Letters 25, 1998
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PDSI PDOAMO
ENSO
from tree rings
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COMPOSITESwhere is it wet or dry when ENSO is strong?
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PDSI PDOAMO
ENSO
from tree rings
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LOWfrequency
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61
LOW FREQUENCIES (>7yr)TREE-RINGS and PDO
0
mean squared coherence
0.5
0.25
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61
LOW FREQUENCIES (>7yr)TREE-RINGS and PDO
0
mean squared coherence
0.5
0.25
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1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
-10
-5
0
5
10
62
Mexican PDSI
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631900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
-10
-5
0
5
10PDO index Mexican PDSI
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PDSI PDOAMO
ENSO
from tree rings
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SEASONALITY AND DROUGHT
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summer
winter
mixed
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IMPLICATIONS
1590s
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what/where OK
IMPLICATIONS
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what/where OK
what/where/why NOT OK
IMPLICATIONS
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IMPLICATIONS
tree ring model output
Celine Herwiejer, Richard Seager and Ed Cook
North American droughts of the mid to late nineteenth century: a history, simulation and implication for Mediaeval droughtThe Holocene 16, 2006
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summer
winter
mixed
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MANY THANKS
Dave Meko
Ed Cook
Hal Fritts
Toby Ault