Two Brothers Brewing Co. - Team 8
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Transcript of Two Brothers Brewing Co. - Team 8
Deloitte Consulting LLP
TWO BROTHER’S BREWING COMPANY’S SUSTAINED ROAD TO GROWTH
Client Discussion document : Growth plan over the next 3 year
9th November, 2011
Team Resumes
¡ Nationality: Indian
• Undergrad: St. Stephens School, New Delhi
¡ Nationality: Polish
• Undergrad: Politecnico di Milano
Karam Malhotra
Michal Laube
¡ Nationality: American
• Undergrad: Columbia University
¡ Nationality: American
• Undergrad: NYU Stern School of Business
Edward Krule
Val Misra .
Photo Photo
Photo Photo
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Opportunity There is an opportunity to maintain sustained growth and expand its business by more than 2-3x in the next 3 years through:
• Larger distribution reach (geographic and channel)
• Increased consumption levers
• Improved product mix
• Competitive M&A expansion
Two Brothers has the opportunity to more than double its revenue in the next 3 years even in a current diminishing beer category
• Craft beer is a $7.6 bn in the US and accounts for 5-6% of the total beer category
• Overall beer industry is declining at 1%, but craft beer has been growing at 13-15%
• Competition has increased dramatically with an estimated 1790 breweries in the USA, (10% increase YoY)
Industry Trends and size
Consumer Trends
Two Bros distinctive positioning
• The primary drinking category ages of 24-35 drink more craft beer due to niche taste preferences and premium perception
• Also, although on-trade accounts for 25% distribution and 50% revenue, the growth in off-trade is outpacing on-trade currently
• Two Bros is primarily concentrated in the Midwest and is 100% family owned
• They have low brand proliferation as compared to competitors and focus on artisan and seasonal beers
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When compared to the Top Regional Craft Breweries, Two Brothers has potential to increase its production volume, price and distribution network
Sales Volume
Salve Volume (Barrels)
Revenue
Distribution
154149
97
13
TwoBros
+642%
Bell’s Boulevard Summit
3027
18
Summit TwoBros
2
+800%
Bell’s Boulevard
USD million
17
21
17
7
Bell’s Boulevard Summit TwoBros
Number of states
Average Price Estimates
195181186
153
+21%
Bell’s Boulevard Summit TwoBros
USD / barrel
Source: Inc.com, Mintpost.com, medill.edu
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Potential organic and inorganic initiatives
Can we grow organically?
Can we grow through M&A?
Acquire other breweries
Move into adjacent spaces
Increase pricing
Increase per capita
consumption
How can we grow substantially over the next three years?
Create additional drink occasions
Revamp channel distribution strategy
Expand geographically
Increase pricing of current products
Create an upscale line/brand
Breweries in Chicago area to improve economies of
scale
Breweries in other regions to improve distribution
Increase the number of customers
Modify SKU sizes / packaging type
Target new customer segments
Enter wine / RTD drinks production
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Four initiatives should be launched immediately Fe
asib
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/ Ea
se o
f im
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Hig
h Wave 2 Wave 1
Med
ium
Wave 3
Wave 2
Medium High
Mid-term growth potential
Create additional drink occasions
Revamp channel distribution strategy
Expand own distribution to new geographic areas
Increase pricing of current products
Create an upscale line/brand
Breweries in Chicagoland to improve economies of
scale
Breweries in other regions to improve distribution
Modify SKU sizes / packaging type
Target new customer segments
Enter wine / RTD drinks production
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Wave 1 Initiatives: TwoBros will need to follow an inorganic growth strategy in the West and a more in-house strategy in the east to cover the key beer states
Impact: • Acquisition of $1.5mn revenue brewery would allow to double current sales and would break-
even within 3-4 years • Growth in the Northeast could allow for 3-5% one-time growth of current sales (as
consumption per capita in untapped states is ~20% higher, though volume base is lower)
TwoBros current reach
Top 10 states for craft beer1
Acquisition of a local Westcost craft brewery would allow to tap into the largest markets in the US as well as expand distribution of TwoBros beers
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Organic growth in the Northeast, extending the reach of distribution networks to Vermont, New Hampshire, Delaware
1 State’s favorability was ranked along the following metrics: production, consumption, tax regulation, number of breweries per capita
Source: Craft Brewery Business booming – The Street
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Grocery supermarkets
¡ Increasingly important channel (untapped)
¡ Crucial to identify and cover key growth segments specific for craft beer, e.g. Whole Foods
Wave 1 Initiatives: Distribution - Two Brothers must ensure that distribution covers the most important as well as the highest growing segments for craft beers
On-trade channels
¡ Traditionally main distribution channel
¡ Often first touchpoint with the brand
¡ Important to maintain relationship with selected local bars to build awareness and loyalty
Convenience stores
¡ Main distribution channel for home consumption
¡ Key growth channel for craft beers. E.g., C stores, liquor stores
Mass merchandizers
¡ Difficult to cover
¡ Low negotiating power
¡ Lack of production capacity to cover potential demand
¡ Still low number of target customers in stores
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Impact depends on current channel distribution structure. Typical improvement seen in range of 10-20% of revenue
Priority
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Wave 1 Initiatives: Pricing: There is a large opportunity in increasing pricing to match competitor levels
1 2
Average Price Estimates
USD / barrel
195181186
153
+22%
Bell’s Boulevard Summit TwoBros
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2
Increase price on current brands
• Quick win, easy to implement for short term gain
• Will most probably lead to decreased consumption among current customers
Launch premium, artisanal brands
• More difficult to implement, potentially requires research and high marketing expenditures
• Potentially high upside, especially over a longer time horizon
There is a consumer trend to move into premium craft beer segments – willingness to pay is rising
Source: Inc.com, Mintpost.com, medill.edu
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Description of Wave 2&3 initiatives
¡ Experiment with packaging and communication to increase the number of occasion drinking (beer with a home dinner, cans )
¡ Create artisanal packaging and aim to become a wine substitute ¡ Introduce larger bottle size (22oz, 750 ml) to increase the single
occasion consumption and smaller SKUs to drive frequency
Create new drink occasions
Experiment with SKUs
Acquisition of brewery in
Chicagoland area
Entry into adjacent
segments – wine & RTD
¡ Acquisition of a brewery in Chicagoland would help Two Brothers achieve economies of scale, especially in sourcing (stronger negotiation position against suppliers) and in distribution
¡ Acquiring a Westcoast brewer is a priority to larger potential for upside and lower cannibalization risk
¡ Wine is one of the highest growth categories and is often considered as a substituting beer (especially traditional domestic beers)
¡ TwoBrothers now in the highest growing category within beer – recommend to focus limited immediate resources on ancillary services
Target new customers
¡ Create new tastes catering to new untapped segments: women, the elderly and other
¡ Develop new seasonal tastes (Octoberfest, Christmas) ¡ Experiment with can packaging and target environmentally-aware
customers
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In order to achieve this, Two Brothers will have to strengthen their internal functions
¡ Two Brothers will need to support their increase in demand in both bottling and fermentation facilities.
– Short term demand - Contract brewing / acquisition of a brewing facility.
– Long term demand - Expand current production facilities
Production
People
Marketing
Financial prowess
¡ Two Brothers still has less than 70 employees. TwoBros will need to invest in
– FTEs especially well trained on distribution and sales
– M&A experts in the Craft brewing industry
¡ Two Brothers will have to review its marketing strategy
– They will be entering new geographies and extending product lines
– New speciality brands could also be launched (SKU sizes, cans instead of bottles, low-calorie variants for women / football season)
¡ Due to the busy M&A activity that may arise, TwoBros should
– Negotiate better interest rates with banks if it plans to take on debt
– As the TwoBros forecasted IRR is high enough to support VC funding, they could look at this and other sources of cash generation
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Impact of various initiatives deployed in Wave 1 and Wave 2 along with enablers, could more than double the business in 3 years
285
1,500
380190
Total (yr 3)
4,350
Wave 2&3 Total Wave 1 inititatives
3,970
Channel rationalization
Westcoast Acquisition
Northeast Distribution
95
Pricing improvement
2011
1,900
32%
¡ Pricing improvement of 15% of current revenue, after considering loss in sales
¡ Northeast dsitribution: 3-5% additional sales ¡ Westcoast acquisition: 1.5m in revenue
¡ Channel rationalization : 10% ¡ Wave 2-3 initiatives: ~20% additional
contribution through increase in consumption and product base
Assumptions
Revenue, USD ’000s
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BACKUP
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Backup of NPV analysis assuming $6m investment in yr 0
St line depreciation
35% Tax
13% CoC
1 2 3 4 5
1000000 2000000 18000000 27000000 30000000
13041 96799 149088 153973
153.3625 185.9523 181.1011 194.8394
0 yr 1 yr 2 yr 3 yr 4 yr 5
Rev '000s 2000 2700 3645 4920.75 6643.013 8968.067
PAT 140 189 255.15 344.4525 465.0109 627.7647
FCF with TV -5860 609 675.15 764.4525 885.0109 6975.163
DCF -5860 608.2093 673.398 761.4789 880.4237 6930.001
npv 3993.5
BACKUP