Welcome

2

Course Seminar

on

Twelfth five year plan- major challenges in agriculture

Presented by

Rishabh KumarRoll No. 20372M.Sc. I, IARI,

New Delhi

CONTENTS

1. Introduction

2. Recent trends

3. The climate challenge

4. State wise performance

5. Crop sector

6. Livestock and fishery

7. Output input and productivity

8. Subsidies and public development

9. Public distribution system

10. Consumer protection and welfare

11. Centrality of small holdings

12. Agricultural marketing and

processing

13. Cooperatives and credits

14. Climate risk

15. Agriculture research and

education

Introduction

• GDP share 14%

• Shifting of rural laborers to non farming sector

• 12th FYP-current focus

1. Viability of farm enterprise, mostly small farms.

2. Resource-use efficiency.

3. Technology to ensure sustainability of natural resources.

4. Adaptation to climate change.

5. Improvements in total factor productivity

RECENT TRENDS (of what?): PERFORMANCE ANDPOINTERS

• Failure to reach the target growth is one reason for the high inflation in prices of

food and other primary commodities that persist despite the recent slowdown in

overall GDP growth.

• Consequently, although the overall GDP growth target of the Twelfth Plan has been

revised down since the Approach Paper, the growth target for agriculture is

maintained at 4 per cent

Further focus

• Reduction in variability in growth rate through

1. Diversified agriculture

2. extended information reach

3. investments both on-farm and in watershed development

Growth Rate of Agricultural and Allied Sectors in FYPs

Plan Share of agriculture in the economy

Growth rate of agriculture and

allied sector

Growth rate of total economy

9th FYP 23.4 2.5 5.7

10TH FYP 19.0 2.4 7.6

11TH FYP 15.2 3.7 8.0

Source: Central Statistical Office, New Delhi Press Release dated 7th Feb, 2013.

The Climate Challenge

• Trend towards both drier and warmer weather, particularly during the last

three Plan periods

• Three (2008, 2009 and 2011) of the five Eleventh Plan years had annual rainfall

below 95 per cent of long period average, as compared to only five in the

previous 15 years

• The Eleventh Plan period contained the two warmest years (2010 and 2009)

ever recorded since 1900.

State-wise performance

• Recovery in agriculture after 2004 was associated with clear signs of renewed

dynamism in rain-fed areas.

• The states with best performance were Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Manipur, Tripura,

Mizoram, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, all with

above 5 per cent growth.

1981-82 1994-95 2000-01 2005-06to to to to

1993-94 1999-2000 2004-05 2011-12Andhra Pradesh 3.9 2.8 4.7 5.0Arunachal Pradesh 9.3 -0.8 1.6 5.0Assam 2.5 0.2 -0.1 4.1Bihar 1.1 3.1 7.4 3.3Chhattisgarh 4.9 -2.1 4.6 7.3Gujarat 8.8 5.2 9.1 5.5Haryana 4.5 2.1 2.7 4.2Himachal Pradesh 2.8 0.3 8.0 1.5Jammu & Kashmir 1.3 5.2 3.6 0.7Jharkhand 1.1 4.3 5.0 8.0Karnataka 4.5 4.1 -2.9 5.1Kerala 3.2 1.9 1.7 -0.2Madhya Pradesh 4.9 1.6 2.2 4.4Maharashtra 5.7 3.1 1.6 5.3Manipur 2.8 2.1 5.8 5.9Meghalaya 1.1 7.2 4.8 3.3Mizoram 0.1 5.7Nagaland 14.1 2.5Odisha 2.6 0.0 3.5 3.1Punjab 4.9 2.5 1.8 1.8Rajasthan 5.9 5.5 10.9 5.5Sikkim -1.2 6.5 3.4Tamilnadu 5.8 1.8 -0.5 4.6Tripura 2.5 3.7 4.0 5.7Uttar Pradesh 2.8 3.5 1.0 2.8Uttarakhand 2.8 2.4 3.3 2.0West Bengal 5.3 4.1 2.4 2.6Sum of GSDP of: 3.4 2.5 2.1 3.8All above states (3.4) (3.3) (1.7) (3.7)High irrigation states 3.8 3.2 1.7 2.7Medium irrigation states 2.9 1.8 3.1 4.2Low irrigation states 3.6 2.8 1.5 4.5High productivity states 4.1 2.9 2.5 2.1Mid productivity states 3.0 2.4 2.1 3.7Low productivity states 3.6 2.6 2.5 5.1Across States:Median 3.6 2.5 3.5 4.2Standard deviation 2.2 2.3 3.7 1.9

Averages of Annual Growth Rates of GSDP from Agriculture and Allied Sectors

• The Eleventh Plan strategy gave much greater flexibility to States and focused

more on yield gaps within existing technology, rather than emphasizing new

technologies and supporting these.

• growth is more difficult to accelerate at higher productivity levels without

new technology, particularly if past patterns of growth have taken a toll on

natural resources.

OUTPUTS, INPUTS AND PRODUCTIVITY11th FYP focusses on:

• It funded research better but emphasised on getting more from existing technology.

• Decentralization of funds at state and lower level

• low public investment and food security needs- increased Centre’s spending in

disadvantaged regions.

• not just on production but also on farm incomes, stressing service delivery and

suggesting encouragement of group activity with land and tenancy reforms put back

on the agenda

FOR 12TH PLAN

• Greater technical thrust is needed, and the strategy for agriculture should take this

into account.

• Need to re-look policies relating to inputs, especially fertiliser and power

• To increase public investment in agriculture to 4 per cent of agricultural GDP and

thereby achieve growth of public sector capital stock in agriculture

CROP SECTOR

• Area under oilseeds, pulses and coarse cereals declining gradually.

• There are also legitimate complaints of non-availability of non-Bt seeds, for

example in Vidharbha.

• Genetically modified organisms (GMOs) therefore remain controversial- Bt

Brinjal

• NFSM and RKVY- record increase in the wheat and rice production.

For 12th plan

• Better price policy for pulses both in NFSM and RKVY.

• To put in place scientifically impeccable operational protocols and a

regulatory mechanism to permit GMOs when they meet rigorous tests that

can outweigh misgivings.

Horticulture sector

• During the 11th Plan, the growth rate of horticulture was 4.7 per annum,

slightly short of the projected 5 per cent.

• Lack of proper backward linkage with supply of quality seed and planting

material.

• Huge logistic gaps between production clusters and marketing centers.

For 12th plan

• Integration of the several horticultural schemes into single management of National

Horticulture Mission.

• Aiming at 5 per cent growth of horticulture production

• As recommended by NSSO committee on improvement horticulture statistics, there

is need to set up an extensive network of Horticulture Information Systems (HIS).

• Horticulture production, estimated at 265 million tonnes, exceeded the production

of foodgrains and oilseeds in 2012-13 , owing to an 8.6 per cent increase in

productivity of horticulture crops between 2008-09 and 2012-13.

Livestock and Fishery

• With over 75 per cent of cattle located in rain-fed areas, the major issue is

access to feed, fodder and drinking water which is becoming increasingly

scarce-causing inflation

• growing numbers of unproductive male cattle

• stagnation of marine fishery, a phenomenon which is expected to continue.

• Fish prices more than doubled during the Eleventh Plan, a higher inflation

than either crops or any other livestock segment.

FOR 12TH PLAN

• Involving dairy cooperatives in breed and feed issues

• Revisit breeding strategies

• Make fodder development higher priority in both animal

• National Dairy Plan

• National Livestock Mission

• Husbandry and crop programmes.

• Clearly differentiating the responsibilities of NFDB and the Department of Animal

Husbandry, Dairying and Fisheries.

• Enhancement of fish production in rainfed water bodies by 2-4 times.If fully

harnessed, it can secure over 6 per cent fishery growth.

• Implementation of Monitoring, Control and Surveillance (MCS) .

Subsidies vs Public Investment

• Subsidies increased from an average of 4.1 % of agricultural GDP during the 10th

Plan to average 8.2 % in the first four years of the 11th Plan.

• Clear evidence of overuse.

• But with nearly 90 %of fertilisers and 95 % of farm electricity currently being used

outside eastern, central and north eastern area (20–25 %arable area).

• Urea prices remain controlled with only a 10 %rise at the time of adoption of the

NBS in 2010. Meanwhile prices of decontrolled products doubled.

• Little incentive to expand domestic capacity.

• Fertiliser consumption rose over 30 %

2009-10 2010-11 2012-13

Bihar 5.3 : 1.5 : 1 5.8 : 1.9 : 1 12.3 : 3.6 : 1

Haryana 15.9 : 5.5 : 1 20.4 : 6 : 1 61.4 : 18.7 : 1

Punjab 18.4 : 5.9 : 1 19.1 : 5.4 : 1 61.9 : 19.3 : 1

All India 4.3 : 2 : 1 5.0 : 2.4 : 1 8.2 : 3.2 : 1

Source: Agricultural Statistics at a Glance, 2013

NPK Ratios: All India, Bihar, Punjab, and Haryana (2009-10 and 2012-13)

Cereals Production and Build up of Stocks

• NFSM-rise in cereal production by 37 million tonnes from 2006-07 to 2011-12.

• Costing about Rs. 5 per kg per year to store, these are tying up huge resources that

could have been put to better use.

• Rising consumption of edible oils and pulses which led to imports.

• Milk, eggs, fish and meat-till 2009 no effect of inflation but subsequently drought

led to scarcity of feed and fodder.

FOR 12TH PLAN

• 12th Plan Working Group on Crop Husbandry, Demand and Supply Projections,

Agricultural Inputs and Agricultural Statistics- present levels of production already

exceed likely demand at the end of 12th plan.

• This means that agricultural production must diversify so as to satisfy both tastes

and nutrition.

• MSP policy- Should made more effective in case of pulses and oilseeds where India

is a net importer.

Public Distribution System• Need for rejuvenated approach towards the TPDS .

• Enhanced transparency and accountability.

• Shift from per household basis to per capita basis.

• End-to-end computerization of the TPDS operations with the help of a

comprehensive Plan.

• NFSA is an opportunity to expand PDS coverage to include coarse cereals, pulses

and edible oils.

• Decentralising procurement and the innovative methods of transferring food

subsidy.

• Comprehensive electronic benefit transfer system whereby subsidy is loaded on to a

smart card.

Consumer Welfare and Protection

• Formulation of a comprehensive National Consumer Policy in conformity with the

UN guidelines.

• Need to revisit existing legislations administered by the Department of Consumer

Affairs.

• Amendments in Bureau of Indian Standards Act and

Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act.

• The Gross Budgetary Support for the Department of Consumer Affairs is `1,260

crore for the 12th FYP

The Centrality of Smallholdings

• Land records must be both time-bound and comprehensive.

• Collective approach should be promoted for small and women farmers.

• Channelizing NGO strength in mobilising people to a group-oriented approach.

• To set up Public Land Banks (PLB) at Panchayat level.

Expanding AgriculturalMarketing and Processing

• Focus on leveraging the required private investment

• ‘Speedy reforms’ of APMC Act across different States along with ‘time-bound

development’ of marketing infrastructure.

• Need to fast track modernization of mandi infrastructure.

• Post-harvest losses- Very large investments are required.

• Common Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for all markets.

Contd.

• Warehouse Regulatory and Development Authority (WRDA)- till now only <300

warehouses registered.

• Creation of 17 Mt of additional storage capacity including 2 Mt in the form of silos.

• FDI- It will only add depth and competition to the present situation.

• FDI has an added potential to link farmers to wider markets by expanding exports.

Credit and Cooperatives

• Projections for demand for credit- between Rs.31,24,624 crore and Rs. 42,08,454

crore.

• Updating of KCC databases with priority analysis of KCC percentage provided to

the small and marginal farmers.

• More intensive use of ICT applications to track the flow of credit and transmission

losses.

• Implementation of the revival package for the LTCCS on the lines of the STCCS.

• Financing of PACS through commercial banks needs to be widened, deepened and

strengthened.

Farm Income Variability: Climate Risk

• Gramin Krishi Mausam Seva (GKMS) will be launched to extend IAAS to block

level, initially on experimental basis.

• IMD- Monsoon Mission aimed at generating better seasonal monsoon rainfall

forecasts.

• Weather Based Crop Insurance Scheme (WBCIS)

• Modified National Agricultural Insurance Scheme (MNAIS).

• ‘Catastrophe Protection.’ A blanket Life Insurance- To protect non-insured farmers

from extreme financial distress

Tenth Plan Eleventh Plan

States Plan 4,151 5,401

Non-Plan 6,477 7,629

Total 10,629 13,030

Centre Plan 4,977 7,938

Non-Plan 4,125 6,808

Total 9,102 14,745

RKVY Plan 576

Centre and Plan 9,128 13,914

States Non-Plan 10,603 14,437

Total 19,732 28,351

GDP Agriculture andAllied (2006-07 prices)

33,40,648 39,82,837

Research/Education 0.59% 0.70%

Expenditure on Agricultural Research and Education( in Rs. crore at 2006-07 prices)

AGRICULTURE RESEARCH AND EDUCATION

• To reach 1% of agriculture GDP

• Conceived Research Platforms: focused, time bound multi-disciplinary research.

• National Agricultural Education Project

• National Agriculture Entrepreneurship Project

• Farmer FIRST

• Student READY-Rural Entrepreneurship and Awareness Development Yojana

• Attracting and Retaining Youth in Agriculture (ARYA)

Priorities of NARS

• Strengthening soil organic carbon (SOC) research.

• Developing Models and technology interventions on rational use of inputs.

• The Expert Group on Pulses

• Development of heat resistant varieties of wheat.

• Post-harvest management, secondary agriculture and value addition, along with by-

products and waste management.

• NICRA-2011

Irrigation

• The original 11th Plan targetted for creating irrigation potential was 16 million ha.

This was subsequently revised to 9.5 million ha.

• Overexploitation of water resources is leading to alarming reduction in the water

table in the ‘rice bowl of India that is Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh.

• The total States proposals on investment in Irrigation and Flood Control for the

Twelfth plan add up to about 4,00,000 crore.

FOR 12TH PLAN

• The total States proposals on investment in Irrigation and Flood Control for the

Twelfth plan add up to about 4,00,000 crore.

• Crop Diversification programme-for rice bowl.

• Under the Accelerated Irrigation Benefit Programme (AIBP), Rs. 64,228 crore of

central loan assistance (CLA)/grant had been released up to 31 December 2013.

• Micro-irrigation coverage will be given priority both in irrigated and rain-fed

areas, as part of comprehensive local planning.

PLAN FINANCING

• During the Eleventh Five Year Plan, a combined Plan outlay of Rs. 1,36,381

crore (at 2006–07 prices) by the Centre, States and UTs was envisaged for the

agriculture and allied sectors. The realisation was Rs. 1,30,076 crore at 2006–07

prices, that is, 95 per cent of projected Plan.

• The priority to agriculture and allied sectors in allocation of resources-5.6%.

• 50% by centre including RKVY.

• Drought of 2009 and attempt to introduce a large number of schemes with small

outlays during Eleventh Plan which faced problems in their conceptualisation,

formulation and approval at various stages.

• Comprehensive District Agriculture Plans (C-DAPs), which was weak in previous plan is to be fully implemented.

FOR 12TH PLAN

Conclusion

• Bringing scale through development of Farmer Producer Organisations

• Emphasising technology, both on the research and development sides

• • Stressing standards and protocols and standard operating procedures in every scheme

• Improving statistics and evaluation

• Initiating a shift towards sustainable and climateresilient agriculture, not only through

NMSA but more generally by laying emphasis on rain-fed areas and bringing about

shifts of water-intensive rice cultivation from water-stressed North-WestIndia to

Eastern India.

• Preparing for faster growth through a more diversified agriculture, with investment in

thenecessary modern infrastructure required for perishable products