TVS Motor REDUCE · 2019. 5. 3. · TVS Motor (TVSL) has delivered disappointing performance in...
Transcript of TVS Motor REDUCE · 2019. 5. 3. · TVS Motor (TVSL) has delivered disappointing performance in...
REDUCETVS MotorAutomobile | India
Institutional Equity Research
4QFY19 Result Update | April 30, 2019
Target Price: Rs435
CMP* (Rs) 492
Upside/ (Downside) (%) (11.7)
Bloomberg Ticker TVSL IN
Market Cap. (Rs bn) 233.9
Free Float (%) 43
Shares O/S (mn) 475
1
Research Analyst: Mitul Shah
Contact: 022 3303 4628
Email: [email protected]
Reiterate REDUCE on Likely Rural Slowdown & Lower Exports
TVS Motor (TVSL) has delivered disappointing performance in 4QFY19 – 8% lower than our estimates – primarily owing to muted volume performance and margin contraction amid intensifying competition. Company’s revenue and EBIDTA grew by 10% YoY (-6% QoQ) and 10% YoY (-18% QoQ) to Rs43.8bn and Rs3bn, respectively. Its PAT declined by 19% YoY and 25% QoQ to Rs1.3bn. Its EBIDTA margin was flat YoY but declined 103bps QoQ to 7%. Volume grew by 2% YoY (-8% QoQ) to 9,07,328 units on higher YoY base, while average realisation grew by 7.6% YoY due to price hike for safety norms, higher export contribution and better product mix. Its RM/sales increased by 285bps YoY and 84bps QoQ to 76.6%, while other expenses/sales declined by 180bps YoY (+62bps QoQ) to 11.7%, led by improved operating leverage and new accounting standards. Staff cost rose by 10% YoY and 14% QoQ. Higher interest expenses and tax rate impacted its net profit to some extent.
Volume Growth to Continue…but Limited Margin ExpansionTVSL has been outperforming the domestic 2W industry since past 4 years. While we expect its outperformance to continue on volume front, its margin growth is likely to be limited due to aggressive pricing strategy of the competitors and ongoing slowdown led by lower rural demand. Looking ahead, the Management expects TVSL to sustain higher volume and margin owing to success of new products and improving brand equity. We expect higher monsoon deficit in few pockets of West and South regions coupled with lower Rabi cropping to impact rural demand, going forward. We believe that cost inflation related to ABS/CBS implementation, BS VI implementation and discontinuation of tax benefits from HP plant may put pressure on TVSL’s margin going forward.
Outlook & ValuationIn view of slowdown in domestic 2W market, we reduce our volume and revenue estimates by 5-9% for FY20E and FY21E. Factoring margin pressure due to BS VI cost escalation, we lower our EBIDTA margin estimates by 130bps/96bps for FY20E/FY21E. Accordingly, we cut our EPS estimates by 26% and 16% for FY20E and FY21E, respectively. Considering competitive intensity in domestic as well as exports markets, imminent near-term industry headwinds and expensive valuation, we reiterate our REDUCE rating on the stock with a revised Target Price of Rs435 (from Rs520 earlier), valuing it at 20xFY21E EPS.
Quarterly Performance YE March (Rs. mn) 4QFY19 4QFY18 YoY (%) 3QFY19 QoQ (%) Total Volume (units) 9,07,328 8,89,133 2.0 9,89,787 (8.3)
Total Revenue 43,840 39,928 9.8 46,640 (6.0)
Total Expenditure 40,759 37,121 9.8 42,883 (5.0)
EBIDTA 3,081 2,807 9.8 3,757 (18.0) EBIT 2,050 1,863 10.1 2,745 (25.3)
Profit Before Extra-ord and Tax 1,839 1,921 (4.2) 2,585 (28.8) Profit After Tax 1,338 1,656 (19.2) 1,784 (25.0)
Adj. PAT 1,338 1,656 (19.2) 1,784 (25.0) Adj. EPS (Rs.) 2.82 3.49 (19.2) 3.75 (25.0)
EBIDTA Margin 7.0 7.0 - 8.1 (103) bps Adj. NPM 3.1 4.1 (110) bps 3.8 (77) bps
Source: Company, RSec Research
Share price (%) 1 mth 3 mth 12 mth
Absolute performance 4.5 (0.6) (26.2)
Relative to Nifty 3.4 (10.9) (35.6)
Shareholding Pattern (%) Dec’18 Mar’19
Promoter 57.4 57.4
Public 42.6 42.6
Key Financials(Rs mn) FY19E FY20E FY21E
Net Sales 1,82,099 2,10,579 2,50,083
EBITDA 14,333 16,174 20,097
EBITDA margin (%) 7.9 7.7 8.0
Adj. Net Profit 6,701 7,767 10,327
EPS (Rs.) 14.1 16.3 21.7
ROE (%) 20.8 20.8 23.2
P/E (x) 34.9 30.1 22.6
Change of Estimates(% change) FY20E FY21E
Net revenues (5.3) (6.5)EBIDTA (19.3) (11.8)Net Profit (25.5) (16.3)EPS (Rs.) (25.7) (16.4)
1 Year Stock Price Performance
Note: * CMP as on April 30, 2019
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TVS MotorAutomobile | India
Institutional Equity Research
Target Price: Rs435
CMP* (Rs) 492
Upside/ (Downside) (%) (11.7)
Bloomberg Ticker TVSL IN
2
REDUCE
Conference Call – Key Takeaways f Maintains Industry Outperformance Guidance: The Management attributed healthy
volume growth to good response to new products in domestic market. It aims to increase its market share in domestic 2W industry in FY19-FY20 with success of new Apache, Jupiter, Ntorq and new Radeon. The Management expects to outperform the industry on the back of success of new launches, as it has established few strong brands in domestic 2W industry over last two years. However, it expects muted industry volume in 1QFY20 and improvement in 2Q and 3Q, while 4Q is expected to remain full of uncertainty due to BS-VI transition. On a full year basis two wheeler industry is expected to record single digit volume growth in FY20.
f Price Hike: Following price hike of Rs200-300/vehicle in Oct’18 to support margin and to pass higher commodity cost, TVSL hiked prices by 0.4% in 4QFY19. In addition to this, it further hiked prices on few model up to Rs6000-6500/vehicle in Feb’19 towards ABS implementation.
f New Products – The Key Volume Driver: TVSL has launched new Apache RTR 180, Ntorq and RR310 in 4QFY18. Response for all the new products is good and the Management plans to capitalise on improving brand image backed by success of these new products. The Company has been witnessing good growth across regions.
f Technology & BS-VI: The Company’s all the models like Ntorq, Radeon and Wego, Apache etc. are already available with new safety norms. It also plans to launch BS-VI vehicles well before deadline of Apr’20. It is fully equipped with technology and capacity to tackle any pre-buying/demand spurt.
f Capex & Investment: The Company plans to spend Rs6.5bn as capex and Rs2.5bn as investment in FY20. In FY19, it spent Rs6bn towards capex. The Company has invested Rs0.3bn in TVS Credit and Rs0.15bn in TVS Singapore during the quarter.
Key Risks f Major success of new launch.
f Favourable exchange rate.
f Sharp fall in commodity prices.
TVS MotorAutomobile | India
Institutional Equity Research
Target Price: Rs435
CMP* (Rs) 492
Upside/ (Downside) (%) (11.7)
Bloomberg Ticker TVSL IN
3
REDUCE
Exhibit 1: Result Summary
YE March (Rs mn) 4QFY19 4QFY18 YoY (%) 3QFY19 QoQ (%)
Domestic 7,11,703 7,28,139 (2.3) 8,13,123 (12.5)
Exports 1,95,625 1,60,994 21.5 1,76,664 10.7
Total Volume (units) 9,07,328 8,89,133 2.0 9,89,787 (8.3)
Total Revenue 43,840 39,928 9.8 46,640 (6.0) Less:
Net Raw Material consumed 33,593 29,458 14.0 35,347 (5.0)
Other Expenses 5,130 5,391 (4.8) 5,169 (0.8)
Personnel 2,036 2,272 (10.4) 2,367 (14.0)
Total Expenditure 40,759 37,121 9.8 42,883 (5.0) EBIDTA 3,081 2,807 9.8 3,757 (18.0)
Less: Depreciation 1,031 944 9.3 1,012 1.8
EBIT 2,050 1,863 10.1 2,745 (25.3) Less: Net Interest 247 183 35.3 167 47.9
Add: Other income 36 240 (85.1) 7 450.8
Profit Before Extra-ordinary items and Tax 1,839 1,921 (4.2) 2,585 (28.8) Less: Total Tax 501 264 89.5 801 (37.4)
Profit After Tax 1,338 1,656 (19.2) 1,784 (25.0)
Adj. PAT 1,338 1,656 (19.2) 1,784 (25.0)
Shares Outstanding (mn) 475 475 475
Reported EPS (Rs.) 2.82 3.49 (19.2) 3.75 (25.0) Adj. EPS (Rs.) 2.82 3.49 (19.2) 3.75 (25.0)Cost & Margin Analysis Change
in bpsChange
in bps EBIDTA Margin 7.0 7.0 (0) 8.1 (103)
Adj. NPM 3.1 4.1 (110) 3.8 (77)
Effective Tax Rate 27.2 13.8 1,347 31.0 (374)
Cost Analysis RM/Net Sales 76.6 73.8 285 75.8 84
Other Expenses./Net Sales 11.7 13.5 (180) 11.1 62
Personnel/Net Sales 4.6 5.7 (105) 5.1 (43)
Source: Company, RSec Research
Exhibit 2: Revised vs. Old Estimates
FY20E FY21E
Y/E Mar (Rs mn) Old New % Change Old New % Change
Domestic 36,93,059 33,72,745 (8.7) 40,30,917 36,00,619 (10.7)
Export 8,82,459 8,75,999 (0.7) 10,14,828 10,07,399 (0.7)
Total Volume Units 45,75,518 42,48,743 (7.1) 50,45,745 46,08,017 (8.7)
Net revenues 2,22,475 2,10,579 (5.3) 2,67,420 2,50,083 (6.5)
EBIDTA 20,042 16,174 (19.3) 22,774 20,097 (11.8)
EBIDTA margin (%) 9.0 7.7 (130) bps 9.0 8.0 (96) bps
Reported Net Profit 10,431 7,767 (25.5) 12,341 10,327 (16.3)
EPS (Rs.) 22.0 16.3 (25.7) 26.0 21.7 (16.4)
Source: RSec Research.
TVS MotorAutomobile | India
Institutional Equity Research
Target Price: Rs435
CMP* (Rs) 492
Upside/ (Downside) (%) (11.7)
Bloomberg Ticker TVSL IN
4
REDUCE
Exhibit 3: Volume Analysis
Units 4QFY19 4QFY18 YoY (%) 3QFY19 QoQ (%)
Motorcycles75 cc to 110 cc 1,10,319 79,327 39.1 1,32,923 (17.0)
110 cc to 125 cc 10,373 29,125 (64.4) 22,750 (54.4)
150 cc to 225 cc 1,10,058 1,12,299 (2.0) 97,681 12.7
250 cc to 350 cc 806 1578 (48.9) 742 8.6
Total Domestic Motorcycles 2,31,556 2,22,329 4.2 2,54,096 (8.9)Domestic Scooter 2,58,070 2,73,529 (5.7) 3,38,276 (23.7)
Domestic Moped 2,18,320 2,26,653 (3.7) 2,16,775 0.7
Domestic 3Ws 3,757 5,628 (33.2) 3,976 (5.5)
Total Domestic Volume 7,11,703 7,28,139 (2.3) 8,13,123 (12.5)Exports 1,95,625 1,60,994 21.5 1,76,664 10.7
Total Sales 9,07,328 8,89,133 2.0 9,89,787 (8.3)Source: Company, RSec Research
Exhibit 4: Market Share Trend (%) Exhibit 5: Volume Contribution (%)
Source: Company, RSec Research
Exhibit 6: Revenue and EBITDA Trend
Source: Company, RSec Research
Volume & Market ShareAs per SIAM, TVSL’s total volume grew by 2% YoY (-8.3% QoQ) to 9,07,328 units. Its domestic bike volume grew by 4% YoY and (-8.9% QoQ) to 2,31,556 units vs. industry decline of 6% YoY. While scooter volume decreased by 6% YoY and 24% QoQ to 2,58,070 units, moped volume fell by 4% YoY to 2,18,320 units. Exports volume grew by 22% YoY and 11% QoQ to 1,95,625. Its domestic 3W sales fell by 33% YoY and 6% QoQ to 3,757 units vs. industry volume decline of 9% YoY in 4QFY19.
TVSL’s market share in domestic 2W segment rose by 60bps YoY to 11%, while it rose by 80bps YoY to 7.6% in motorcycle segment. Market share of scooter segments rose by 50bps YoY to 18.7%, while TVSL’s market share in 3W fell by 80bps YoY to 2.1%.
0.0
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Motorcycle Scooter Three Wheeler
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Total Revenue Rs mn (LHS) EBIDTA Rs mn (LHS) EBIDTA Margin (RHS)
TVS MotorAutomobile | India
Institutional Equity Research
Target Price: Rs435
CMP* (Rs) 492
Upside/ (Downside) (%) (11.7)
Bloomberg Ticker TVSL IN
5
REDUCE
Profit & Loss StatementY/E Mar (Rs mn) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Net revenue 1,51,297 1,82,099 2,10,579 2,50,083
Expenditure 1,40,005 1,67,767 1,94,406 2,29,986
Raw Materials 1,11,330 1,38,423 1,61,093 1,91,313
Employee Expenses 8,680 9,226 10,149 11,164
Other expenditure 19,995 20,118 23,164 27,509
EBITDA 11,292 14,333 16,174 20,097
Depreciation and amortization expense 3,387 3,993 4,201 4,588
EBIT 7,905 10,340 11,973 15,508
Non-operating income 644 75 95 284
Interest including finance charges 566 806 971 1,040
Adjusted pre-tax profit 7,982 9,610 11,096 14,752
Less: Extraordinary Exp (804) - - -
Reported pre-tax profit 8,786 9,610 11,096 14,752
Less: taxes 2,161 2,908 3,329 4,426
Reported PAT 6,626 6,701 7,767 10,327
Adjusted PAT 6,020 6,701 7,767 10,327
EPS (Rs), based on fully diluted shares 12.7 14.1 16.3 21.7
Fully diluted shares outstanding (mn) 475 475 475 475
Balance SheetY/E Mar (Rs mn) FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity capital 475 475 475 475
Reserves and surplus 28,329 33,040 38,818 47,154
Total equity 28,804 33,516 39,293 47,629
Deferred tax liability (net) 1,482 2,126 2,126 2,126
Total borrowings 10,370 13,870 13,870 13,870
Current liabilities 31,139 36,295 39,514 45,655
Total liabilities 71,795 85,806 94,803 1,09,281
Cash and bank Bal 109 440 1,018 1,334
Inventory 9,644 11,951 13,848 16,383
Trade receivables 9,684 14,141 14,423 15,759
Other current assets 6,974 8,584 10,023 11,903
Total current assets 26,411 35,115 39,313 45,379
Gross block 44,410 50,446 57,271 64,271
Less: depreciation and amortization 20,691 24,684 28,885 33,473
Add: capital work-in-process 1,311 1,575 1,750 1,750
Total fixed assets 25,030 27,337 30,136 32,548
Total Investments 20,354 23,354 25,354 31,354
Total assets 71,795 85,806 94,803 1,09,281
TVS MotorAutomobile | India
Institutional Equity Research
Target Price: Rs435
CMP* (Rs) 492
Upside/ (Downside) (%) (11.7)
Bloomberg Ticker TVSL IN
6
REDUCE
Cash Flow StatementY/E Mar (Rs mn) FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Operating cashflow
Pre-tax income 8,786 9,610 11,096 14,752
Add: depreciation and amortization 3,387 3,993 4,201 4,588
Add: interest expense (net) 440 806 971 1,040
Less: other adjustments (1,300) - - -
Less: taxes paid (2,465) (2,908) (3,329) (4,426)
Add: working capital changes 3,668 (3,218) (400) 391
Total operating cashflow 12,516 8,282 12,539 16,346
Investing cashflow
Capital expenditure (7,929) (6,036) (6,825) (7,000)
Investments (3,463) (3,000) (2,000) (6,000)
Others 535 (264) (175) -
Total investing cashflow (10,856) (9,300) (9,000) (13,000)
Financing cashflow
Share issuances - - - -
Loans 1,714 3,500 - -
Dividend (1,876) (1,990) (1,990) (1,990)
Interest Payment (582) (806) (971) (1,040)
Less: Others (891) 644 - -
Total financing cashflow (1,636) 1,349 (2,961) (3,030)
Net change in cash 24 331 578 316
Opening cash 85 109 440 1,018
Closing cash 109 440 1,018 1,334
TVS MotorAutomobile | India
Institutional Equity Research
Target Price: Rs435
CMP* (Rs) 492
Upside/ (Downside) (%) (11.7)
Bloomberg Ticker TVSL IN
7
REDUCE
Key RatiosY/E Mar FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Growth Ratios (%)
Net revenue 24.7 20.4 15.6 18.8
EBITDA 30.6 26.9 12.8 24.3
Adjusted net profit 20.7 11.3 15.9 32.9
Other Ratios (%)
Effective tax rate 24.6 30.3 30.0 30.0
EBITDA margin 7.5 7.9 7.7 8.0
Adjusted net income margin 4.0 3.7 3.7 4.1
ROaCE 16.4 15.8 15.8 18.3
ROaE 22.0 20.8 20.8 23.2
Total asset turnover ratio (x) 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3
Inventory days 23 24 24 24
Debtor days 23 28 25 23
Creditor days 66 66 63 63
Per share numbers (Rs)
Diluted earnings 12.7 14.1 16.3 21.7
Free cash 9.7 4.7 12.0 19.7
Book value 60.6 70.5 82.7 100.3
Valuations (x)
P/E 38.8 34.9 30.1 22.6
EV/EBITDA 21.6 17.3 15.3 12.3
P/B 8.1 7.0 6.0 4.9
TVS MotorAutomobile | India
Institutional Equity Research
Target Price: Rs435
CMP* (Rs) 492
Upside/ (Downside) (%) (11.7)
Bloomberg Ticker TVSL IN
8
REDUCE
Rating Guides
Rating Expected absolute returns (%) over 12 months
BUY >10%
HOLD -5% to 10%
REDUCE >-5%
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Date Reco CMP TP
05-Apr-19 REDUCE 485 520
22-Jan-19 REDUCE 554 520
23-Oct-18 HOLD 535 585
07-Aug-18 HOLD 549 585
16-May-18 BUY 611 700
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Rating History