TVS Motor REDUCE · 2019. 5. 3. · TVS Motor (TVSL) has delivered disappointing performance in...

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REDUCE TVS Motor Automobile | India Institutional Equity Research 4QFY19 Result Update | April 30, 2019 Target Price: Rs435 CMP* (Rs) 492 Upside/ (Downside) (%) (11.7) Bloomberg Ticker TVSL IN Market Cap. (Rs bn) 233.9 Free Float (%) 43 Shares O/S (mn) 475 1 Research Analyst: Mitul Shah Contact: 022 3303 4628 Email: [email protected] Reiterate REDUCE on Likely Rural Slowdown & Lower Exports TVS Motor (TVSL) has delivered disappointing performance in 4QFY19 – 8% lower than our estimates – primarily owing to muted volume performance and margin contraction amid intensifying competition. Company’s revenue and EBIDTA grew by 10% YoY (-6% QoQ) and 10% YoY (-18% QoQ) to Rs43.8bn and Rs3bn, respectively. Its PAT declined by 19% YoY and 25% QoQ to Rs1.3bn. Its EBIDTA margin was flat YoY but declined 103bps QoQ to 7%. Volume grew by 2% YoY (-8% QoQ) to 9,07,328 units on higher YoY base, while average realisation grew by 7.6% YoY due to price hike for safety norms, higher export contribution and better product mix. Its RM/sales increased by 285bps YoY and 84bps QoQ to 76.6%, while other expenses/sales declined by 180bps YoY (+62bps QoQ) to 11.7%, led by improved operating leverage and new accounting standards. Staff cost rose by 10% YoY and 14% QoQ. Higher interest expenses and tax rate impacted its net profit to some extent. Volume Growth to Continue…but Limited Margin Expansion TVSL has been outperforming the domestic 2W industry since past 4 years. While we expect its outperformance to continue on volume front, its margin growth is likely to be limited due to aggressive pricing strategy of the competitors and ongoing slowdown led by lower rural demand. Looking ahead, the Management expects TVSL to sustain higher volume and margin owing to success of new products and improving brand equity. We expect higher monsoon deficit in few pockets of West and South regions coupled with lower Rabi cropping to impact rural demand, going forward. We believe that cost inflation related to ABS/CBS implementation, BS VI implementation and discontinuation of tax benefits from HP plant may put pressure on TVSL’s margin going forward. Outlook & Valuation In view of slowdown in domestic 2W market, we reduce our volume and revenue estimates by 5-9% for FY20E and FY21E. Factoring margin pressure due to BS VI cost escalation, we lower our EBIDTA margin estimates by 130bps/96bps for FY20E/FY21E. Accordingly, we cut our EPS estimates by 26% and 16% for FY20E and FY21E, respectively. Considering competitive intensity in domestic as well as exports markets, imminent near-term industry headwinds and expensive valuation, we reiterate our REDUCE rating on the stock with a revised Target Price of Rs435 (from Rs520 earlier), valuing it at 20xFY21E EPS. Quarterly Performance YE March (Rs. mn) 4QFY19 4QFY18 YoY (%) 3QFY19 QoQ (%) Total Volume (units) 9,07,328 8,89,133 2.0 9,89,787 (8.3) Total Revenue 43,840 39,928 9.8 46,640 (6.0) Total Expenditure 40,759 37,121 9.8 42,883 (5.0) EBIDTA 3,081 2,807 9.8 3,757 (18.0) EBIT 2,050 1,863 10.1 2,745 (25.3) Profit Before Extra-ord and Tax 1,839 1,921 (4.2) 2,585 (28.8) Profit After Tax 1,338 1,656 (19.2) 1,784 (25.0) Adj. PAT 1,338 1,656 (19.2) 1,784 (25.0) Adj. EPS (Rs.) 2.82 3.49 (19.2) 3.75 (25.0) EBIDTA Margin 7.0 7.0 - 8.1 (103) bps Adj. NPM 3.1 4.1 (110) bps 3.8 (77) bps Source: Company, RSec Research Share price (%) 1 mth 3 mth 12 mth Absolute performance 4.5 (0.6) (26.2) Relative to Nifty 3.4 (10.9) (35.6) Shareholding Pattern (%) Dec’18 Mar’19 Promoter 57.4 57.4 Public 42.6 42.6 Key Financials (Rs mn) FY19E FY20E FY21E Net Sales 1,82,099 2,10,579 2,50,083 EBITDA 14,333 16,174 20,097 EBITDA margin (%) 7.9 7.7 8.0 Adj. Net Profit 6,701 7,767 10,327 EPS (Rs.) 14.1 16.3 21.7 ROE (%) 20.8 20.8 23.2 P/E (x) 34.9 30.1 22.6 Change of Estimates (% change) FY20E FY21E Net revenues (5.3) (6.5) EBIDTA (19.3) (11.8) Net Profit (25.5) (16.3) EPS (Rs.) (25.7) (16.4) 1 Year Stock Price Performance Note: * CMP as on April 30, 2019 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19

Transcript of TVS Motor REDUCE · 2019. 5. 3. · TVS Motor (TVSL) has delivered disappointing performance in...

Page 1: TVS Motor REDUCE · 2019. 5. 3. · TVS Motor (TVSL) has delivered disappointing performance in 4QFY19 – 8% lower than our ... Apache, Jupiter, Ntorq and new Radeon. The Management

REDUCETVS MotorAutomobile | India

Institutional Equity Research

4QFY19 Result Update | April 30, 2019

Target Price: Rs435

CMP* (Rs) 492

Upside/ (Downside) (%) (11.7)

Bloomberg Ticker TVSL IN

Market Cap. (Rs bn) 233.9

Free Float (%) 43

Shares O/S (mn) 475

1

Research Analyst: Mitul Shah

Contact: 022 3303 4628

Email: [email protected]

Reiterate REDUCE on Likely Rural Slowdown & Lower Exports

TVS Motor (TVSL) has delivered disappointing performance in 4QFY19 – 8% lower than our estimates – primarily owing to muted volume performance and margin contraction amid intensifying competition. Company’s revenue and EBIDTA grew by 10% YoY (-6% QoQ) and 10% YoY (-18% QoQ) to Rs43.8bn and Rs3bn, respectively. Its PAT declined by 19% YoY and 25% QoQ to Rs1.3bn. Its EBIDTA margin was flat YoY but declined 103bps QoQ to 7%. Volume grew by 2% YoY (-8% QoQ) to 9,07,328 units on higher YoY base, while average realisation grew by 7.6% YoY due to price hike for safety norms, higher export contribution and better product mix. Its RM/sales increased by 285bps YoY and 84bps QoQ to 76.6%, while other expenses/sales declined by 180bps YoY (+62bps QoQ) to 11.7%, led by improved operating leverage and new accounting standards. Staff cost rose by 10% YoY and 14% QoQ. Higher interest expenses and tax rate impacted its net profit to some extent.

Volume Growth to Continue…but Limited Margin ExpansionTVSL has been outperforming the domestic 2W industry since past 4 years. While we expect its outperformance to continue on volume front, its margin growth is likely to be limited due to aggressive pricing strategy of the competitors and ongoing slowdown led by lower rural demand. Looking ahead, the Management expects TVSL to sustain higher volume and margin owing to success of new products and improving brand equity. We expect higher monsoon deficit in few pockets of West and South regions coupled with lower Rabi cropping to impact rural demand, going forward. We believe that cost inflation related to ABS/CBS implementation, BS VI implementation and discontinuation of tax benefits from HP plant may put pressure on TVSL’s margin going forward.

Outlook & ValuationIn view of slowdown in domestic 2W market, we reduce our volume and revenue estimates by 5-9% for FY20E and FY21E. Factoring margin pressure due to BS VI cost escalation, we lower our EBIDTA margin estimates by 130bps/96bps for FY20E/FY21E. Accordingly, we cut our EPS estimates by 26% and 16% for FY20E and FY21E, respectively. Considering competitive intensity in domestic as well as exports markets, imminent near-term industry headwinds and expensive valuation, we reiterate our REDUCE rating on the stock with a revised Target Price of Rs435 (from Rs520 earlier), valuing it at 20xFY21E EPS.

Quarterly Performance YE March (Rs. mn) 4QFY19 4QFY18 YoY (%) 3QFY19 QoQ (%) Total Volume (units) 9,07,328 8,89,133 2.0 9,89,787 (8.3)

Total Revenue 43,840 39,928 9.8 46,640 (6.0)

Total Expenditure 40,759 37,121 9.8 42,883 (5.0)

EBIDTA 3,081 2,807 9.8 3,757 (18.0) EBIT 2,050 1,863 10.1 2,745 (25.3)

Profit Before Extra-ord and Tax 1,839 1,921 (4.2) 2,585 (28.8) Profit After Tax 1,338 1,656 (19.2) 1,784 (25.0)

Adj. PAT 1,338 1,656 (19.2) 1,784 (25.0) Adj. EPS (Rs.) 2.82 3.49 (19.2) 3.75 (25.0)

EBIDTA Margin 7.0 7.0 - 8.1 (103) bps Adj. NPM 3.1 4.1 (110) bps 3.8 (77) bps

Source: Company, RSec Research

Share price (%) 1 mth 3 mth 12 mth

Absolute performance 4.5 (0.6) (26.2)

Relative to Nifty 3.4 (10.9) (35.6)

Shareholding Pattern (%) Dec’18 Mar’19

Promoter 57.4 57.4

Public 42.6 42.6

Key Financials(Rs mn) FY19E FY20E FY21E

Net Sales 1,82,099 2,10,579 2,50,083

EBITDA 14,333 16,174 20,097

EBITDA margin (%) 7.9 7.7 8.0

Adj. Net Profit 6,701 7,767 10,327

EPS (Rs.) 14.1 16.3 21.7

ROE (%) 20.8 20.8 23.2

P/E (x) 34.9 30.1 22.6

Change of Estimates(% change) FY20E FY21E

Net revenues (5.3) (6.5)EBIDTA (19.3) (11.8)Net Profit (25.5) (16.3)EPS (Rs.) (25.7) (16.4)

1 Year Stock Price Performance

Note: * CMP as on April 30, 2019

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Page 2: TVS Motor REDUCE · 2019. 5. 3. · TVS Motor (TVSL) has delivered disappointing performance in 4QFY19 – 8% lower than our ... Apache, Jupiter, Ntorq and new Radeon. The Management

TVS MotorAutomobile | India

Institutional Equity Research

Target Price: Rs435

CMP* (Rs) 492

Upside/ (Downside) (%) (11.7)

Bloomberg Ticker TVSL IN

2

REDUCE

Conference Call – Key Takeaways f Maintains Industry Outperformance Guidance: The Management attributed healthy

volume growth to good response to new products in domestic market. It aims to increase its market share in domestic 2W industry in FY19-FY20 with success of new Apache, Jupiter, Ntorq and new Radeon. The Management expects to outperform the industry on the back of success of new launches, as it has established few strong brands in domestic 2W industry over last two years. However, it expects muted industry volume in 1QFY20 and improvement in 2Q and 3Q, while 4Q is expected to remain full of uncertainty due to BS-VI transition. On a full year basis two wheeler industry is expected to record single digit volume growth in FY20.

f Price Hike: Following price hike of Rs200-300/vehicle in Oct’18 to support margin and to pass higher commodity cost, TVSL hiked prices by 0.4% in 4QFY19. In addition to this, it further hiked prices on few model up to Rs6000-6500/vehicle in Feb’19 towards ABS implementation.

f New Products – The Key Volume Driver: TVSL has launched new Apache RTR 180, Ntorq and RR310 in 4QFY18. Response for all the new products is good and the Management plans to capitalise on improving brand image backed by success of these new products. The Company has been witnessing good growth across regions.

f Technology & BS-VI: The Company’s all the models like Ntorq, Radeon and Wego, Apache etc. are already available with new safety norms. It also plans to launch BS-VI vehicles well before deadline of Apr’20. It is fully equipped with technology and capacity to tackle any pre-buying/demand spurt.

f Capex & Investment: The Company plans to spend Rs6.5bn as capex and Rs2.5bn as investment in FY20. In FY19, it spent Rs6bn towards capex. The Company has invested Rs0.3bn in TVS Credit and Rs0.15bn in TVS Singapore during the quarter.

Key Risks f Major success of new launch.

f Favourable exchange rate.

f Sharp fall in commodity prices.

Page 3: TVS Motor REDUCE · 2019. 5. 3. · TVS Motor (TVSL) has delivered disappointing performance in 4QFY19 – 8% lower than our ... Apache, Jupiter, Ntorq and new Radeon. The Management

TVS MotorAutomobile | India

Institutional Equity Research

Target Price: Rs435

CMP* (Rs) 492

Upside/ (Downside) (%) (11.7)

Bloomberg Ticker TVSL IN

3

REDUCE

Exhibit 1: Result Summary

YE March (Rs mn) 4QFY19 4QFY18 YoY (%) 3QFY19 QoQ (%)

Domestic 7,11,703 7,28,139 (2.3) 8,13,123 (12.5)

Exports 1,95,625 1,60,994 21.5 1,76,664 10.7

Total Volume (units) 9,07,328 8,89,133 2.0 9,89,787 (8.3)

Total Revenue 43,840 39,928 9.8 46,640 (6.0) Less:

Net Raw Material consumed 33,593 29,458 14.0 35,347 (5.0)

Other Expenses 5,130 5,391 (4.8) 5,169 (0.8)

Personnel 2,036 2,272 (10.4) 2,367 (14.0)

Total Expenditure 40,759 37,121 9.8 42,883 (5.0) EBIDTA 3,081 2,807 9.8 3,757 (18.0)

Less: Depreciation 1,031 944 9.3 1,012 1.8

EBIT 2,050 1,863 10.1 2,745 (25.3) Less: Net Interest 247 183 35.3 167 47.9

Add: Other income 36 240 (85.1) 7 450.8

Profit Before Extra-ordinary items and Tax 1,839 1,921 (4.2) 2,585 (28.8) Less: Total Tax 501 264 89.5 801 (37.4)

Profit After Tax 1,338 1,656 (19.2) 1,784 (25.0)

Adj. PAT 1,338 1,656 (19.2) 1,784 (25.0)

Shares Outstanding (mn) 475 475 475

Reported EPS (Rs.) 2.82 3.49 (19.2) 3.75 (25.0) Adj. EPS (Rs.) 2.82 3.49 (19.2) 3.75 (25.0)Cost & Margin Analysis Change

in bpsChange

in bps EBIDTA Margin 7.0 7.0 (0) 8.1 (103)

Adj. NPM 3.1 4.1 (110) 3.8 (77)

Effective Tax Rate 27.2 13.8 1,347 31.0 (374)

Cost Analysis RM/Net Sales 76.6 73.8 285 75.8 84

Other Expenses./Net Sales 11.7 13.5 (180) 11.1 62

Personnel/Net Sales 4.6 5.7 (105) 5.1 (43)

Source: Company, RSec Research

Exhibit 2: Revised vs. Old Estimates

FY20E FY21E

Y/E Mar (Rs mn) Old New % Change Old New % Change

Domestic 36,93,059 33,72,745 (8.7) 40,30,917 36,00,619 (10.7)

Export 8,82,459 8,75,999 (0.7) 10,14,828 10,07,399 (0.7)

Total Volume Units 45,75,518 42,48,743 (7.1) 50,45,745 46,08,017 (8.7)

Net revenues 2,22,475 2,10,579 (5.3) 2,67,420 2,50,083 (6.5)

EBIDTA 20,042 16,174 (19.3) 22,774 20,097 (11.8)

EBIDTA margin (%) 9.0 7.7 (130) bps 9.0 8.0 (96) bps

Reported Net Profit 10,431 7,767 (25.5) 12,341 10,327 (16.3)

EPS (Rs.) 22.0 16.3 (25.7) 26.0 21.7 (16.4)

Source: RSec Research.

Page 4: TVS Motor REDUCE · 2019. 5. 3. · TVS Motor (TVSL) has delivered disappointing performance in 4QFY19 – 8% lower than our ... Apache, Jupiter, Ntorq and new Radeon. The Management

TVS MotorAutomobile | India

Institutional Equity Research

Target Price: Rs435

CMP* (Rs) 492

Upside/ (Downside) (%) (11.7)

Bloomberg Ticker TVSL IN

4

REDUCE

Exhibit 3: Volume Analysis

Units 4QFY19 4QFY18 YoY (%) 3QFY19 QoQ (%)

Motorcycles75 cc to 110 cc 1,10,319 79,327 39.1 1,32,923 (17.0)

110 cc to 125 cc 10,373 29,125 (64.4) 22,750 (54.4)

150 cc to 225 cc 1,10,058 1,12,299 (2.0) 97,681 12.7

250 cc to 350 cc 806 1578 (48.9) 742 8.6

Total Domestic Motorcycles 2,31,556 2,22,329 4.2 2,54,096 (8.9)Domestic Scooter 2,58,070 2,73,529 (5.7) 3,38,276 (23.7)

Domestic Moped 2,18,320 2,26,653 (3.7) 2,16,775 0.7

Domestic 3Ws 3,757 5,628 (33.2) 3,976 (5.5)

Total Domestic Volume 7,11,703 7,28,139 (2.3) 8,13,123 (12.5)Exports 1,95,625 1,60,994 21.5 1,76,664 10.7

Total Sales 9,07,328 8,89,133 2.0 9,89,787 (8.3)Source: Company, RSec Research

Exhibit 4: Market Share Trend (%) Exhibit 5: Volume Contribution (%)

Source: Company, RSec Research

Exhibit 6: Revenue and EBITDA Trend

Source: Company, RSec Research

Volume & Market ShareAs per SIAM, TVSL’s total volume grew by 2% YoY (-8.3% QoQ) to 9,07,328 units. Its domestic bike volume grew by 4% YoY and (-8.9% QoQ) to 2,31,556 units vs. industry decline of 6% YoY. While scooter volume decreased by 6% YoY and 24% QoQ to 2,58,070 units, moped volume fell by 4% YoY to 2,18,320 units. Exports volume grew by 22% YoY and 11% QoQ to 1,95,625. Its domestic 3W sales fell by 33% YoY and 6% QoQ to 3,757 units vs. industry volume decline of 9% YoY in 4QFY19.

TVSL’s market share in domestic 2W segment rose by 60bps YoY to 11%, while it rose by 80bps YoY to 7.6% in motorcycle segment. Market share of scooter segments rose by 50bps YoY to 18.7%, while TVSL’s market share in 3W fell by 80bps YoY to 2.1%.

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Total Revenue Rs mn (LHS) EBIDTA Rs mn (LHS) EBIDTA Margin (RHS)

Page 5: TVS Motor REDUCE · 2019. 5. 3. · TVS Motor (TVSL) has delivered disappointing performance in 4QFY19 – 8% lower than our ... Apache, Jupiter, Ntorq and new Radeon. The Management

TVS MotorAutomobile | India

Institutional Equity Research

Target Price: Rs435

CMP* (Rs) 492

Upside/ (Downside) (%) (11.7)

Bloomberg Ticker TVSL IN

5

REDUCE

Profit & Loss StatementY/E Mar (Rs mn) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Net revenue 1,51,297 1,82,099 2,10,579 2,50,083

Expenditure 1,40,005 1,67,767 1,94,406 2,29,986

Raw Materials 1,11,330 1,38,423 1,61,093 1,91,313

Employee Expenses 8,680 9,226 10,149 11,164

Other expenditure 19,995 20,118 23,164 27,509

EBITDA 11,292 14,333 16,174 20,097

Depreciation and amortization expense 3,387 3,993 4,201 4,588

EBIT 7,905 10,340 11,973 15,508

Non-operating income 644 75 95 284

Interest including finance charges 566 806 971 1,040

Adjusted pre-tax profit 7,982 9,610 11,096 14,752

Less: Extraordinary Exp (804) - - -

Reported pre-tax profit 8,786 9,610 11,096 14,752

Less: taxes 2,161 2,908 3,329 4,426

Reported PAT 6,626 6,701 7,767 10,327

Adjusted PAT 6,020 6,701 7,767 10,327

EPS (Rs), based on fully diluted shares 12.7 14.1 16.3 21.7

Fully diluted shares outstanding (mn) 475 475 475 475

Balance SheetY/E Mar (Rs mn) FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Equity capital 475 475 475 475

Reserves and surplus 28,329 33,040 38,818 47,154

Total equity 28,804 33,516 39,293 47,629

Deferred tax liability (net) 1,482 2,126 2,126 2,126

Total borrowings 10,370 13,870 13,870 13,870

Current liabilities 31,139 36,295 39,514 45,655

Total liabilities 71,795 85,806 94,803 1,09,281

Cash and bank Bal 109 440 1,018 1,334

Inventory 9,644 11,951 13,848 16,383

Trade receivables 9,684 14,141 14,423 15,759

Other current assets 6,974 8,584 10,023 11,903

Total current assets 26,411 35,115 39,313 45,379

Gross block 44,410 50,446 57,271 64,271

Less: depreciation and amortization 20,691 24,684 28,885 33,473

Add: capital work-in-process 1,311 1,575 1,750 1,750

Total fixed assets 25,030 27,337 30,136 32,548

Total Investments 20,354 23,354 25,354 31,354

Total assets 71,795 85,806 94,803 1,09,281

Page 6: TVS Motor REDUCE · 2019. 5. 3. · TVS Motor (TVSL) has delivered disappointing performance in 4QFY19 – 8% lower than our ... Apache, Jupiter, Ntorq and new Radeon. The Management

TVS MotorAutomobile | India

Institutional Equity Research

Target Price: Rs435

CMP* (Rs) 492

Upside/ (Downside) (%) (11.7)

Bloomberg Ticker TVSL IN

6

REDUCE

Cash Flow StatementY/E Mar (Rs mn) FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Operating cashflow

Pre-tax income 8,786 9,610 11,096 14,752

Add: depreciation and amortization 3,387 3,993 4,201 4,588

Add: interest expense (net) 440 806 971 1,040

Less: other adjustments (1,300) - - -

Less: taxes paid (2,465) (2,908) (3,329) (4,426)

Add: working capital changes 3,668 (3,218) (400) 391

Total operating cashflow 12,516 8,282 12,539 16,346

Investing cashflow

Capital expenditure (7,929) (6,036) (6,825) (7,000)

Investments (3,463) (3,000) (2,000) (6,000)

Others 535 (264) (175) -

Total investing cashflow (10,856) (9,300) (9,000) (13,000)

Financing cashflow

Share issuances - - - -

Loans 1,714 3,500 - -

Dividend (1,876) (1,990) (1,990) (1,990)

Interest Payment (582) (806) (971) (1,040)

Less: Others (891) 644 - -

Total financing cashflow (1,636) 1,349 (2,961) (3,030)

Net change in cash 24 331 578 316

Opening cash 85 109 440 1,018

Closing cash 109 440 1,018 1,334

Page 7: TVS Motor REDUCE · 2019. 5. 3. · TVS Motor (TVSL) has delivered disappointing performance in 4QFY19 – 8% lower than our ... Apache, Jupiter, Ntorq and new Radeon. The Management

TVS MotorAutomobile | India

Institutional Equity Research

Target Price: Rs435

CMP* (Rs) 492

Upside/ (Downside) (%) (11.7)

Bloomberg Ticker TVSL IN

7

REDUCE

Key RatiosY/E Mar FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Growth Ratios (%)

Net revenue 24.7 20.4 15.6 18.8

EBITDA 30.6 26.9 12.8 24.3

Adjusted net profit 20.7 11.3 15.9 32.9

Other Ratios (%)

Effective tax rate 24.6 30.3 30.0 30.0

EBITDA margin 7.5 7.9 7.7 8.0

Adjusted net income margin 4.0 3.7 3.7 4.1

ROaCE 16.4 15.8 15.8 18.3

ROaE 22.0 20.8 20.8 23.2

Total asset turnover ratio (x) 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3

Inventory days 23 24 24 24

Debtor days 23 28 25 23

Creditor days 66 66 63 63

Per share numbers (Rs)

Diluted earnings 12.7 14.1 16.3 21.7

Free cash 9.7 4.7 12.0 19.7

Book value 60.6 70.5 82.7 100.3

Valuations (x)

P/E 38.8 34.9 30.1 22.6

EV/EBITDA 21.6 17.3 15.3 12.3

P/B 8.1 7.0 6.0 4.9

Page 8: TVS Motor REDUCE · 2019. 5. 3. · TVS Motor (TVSL) has delivered disappointing performance in 4QFY19 – 8% lower than our ... Apache, Jupiter, Ntorq and new Radeon. The Management

TVS MotorAutomobile | India

Institutional Equity Research

Target Price: Rs435

CMP* (Rs) 492

Upside/ (Downside) (%) (11.7)

Bloomberg Ticker TVSL IN

8

REDUCE

Rating Guides

Rating Expected absolute returns (%) over 12 months

BUY >10%

HOLD -5% to 10%

REDUCE >-5%

Reliance Securities Limited (RSL), the broking arm of Reliance Capital is one of the India’s leading retail broking houses. Reliance Capital is amongst India’s leading and most valuable financial services

companies in the private sector. Reliance Capital has interests in asset management and mutual funds, life and general insurance, commercial finance, equities and commodities broking, wealth

management services, distribution of financial products, private equity, asset reconstruction, proprietary investments and other activities in financial services. The list of associates of RSL is available on

the website www.reliancecapital.co.in. RSL is registered as a Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014

General Disclaimers: This Research Report (hereinafter called ‘Report’) is prepared and distributed by RSL for information purposes only. The recommendations, if any, made herein are expression of

views and/or opinions and should not be deemed or construed to be neither advice for the purpose of purchase or sale of any security, derivatives or any other security through RSL nor any solicitation

or offering of any investment /trading opportunity on behalf of the issuer(s) of the respective security(ies) referred to herein. These information / opinions / views are not meant to serve as a professional

investment guide for the readers. No action is solicited based upon the information provided herein. Recipients of this Report should rely on information/data arising out of their own investigations.

Readers are advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed trading/investment decision before executing any trades or making any investments. This Report has been

prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed by RSL to be reliable. RSL or its directors, employees, affiliates or representatives do not

assume any responsibility for, or warrant the accuracy, completeness, adequacy and reliability of such information / opinions / views. While due care has been taken to ensure that the disclosures and

opinions given are fair and reasonable, none of the directors, employees, affiliates or representatives of RSL shall be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, punitive or exemplary

damages, including lost profits arising in any way whatsoever from the information / opinions / views contained in this Report.

Risks: Trading and investment in securities are subject to market risks. There are no assurances or guarantees that the objectives of any of trading / investment in securities will be achieved. The trades/

investments referred to herein may not be suitable to all categories of traders/investors. The names of securities mentioned herein do not in any manner indicate their prospects or returns. The value

of securities referred to herein may be adversely affected by the performance or otherwise of the respective issuer companies, changes in the market conditions, micro and macro factors and forces

affecting capital markets like interest rate risk, credit risk, liquidity risk and reinvestment risk. Derivative products may also be affected by various risks including but not limited to counter party risk, market

risk, valuation risk, liquidity risk and other risks. Besides the price of the underlying asset, volatility, tenor and interest rates may affect the pricing of derivatives.

Disclaimers in respect of jurisdiction: The possession, circulation and/or distribution of this Report may be restricted or regulated in certain jurisdictions by appropriate laws. No action has been or will

be taken by RSL in any jurisdiction (other than India), where any action for such purpose(s) is required. Accordingly, this Report shall not be possessed, circulated and/or distributed in any such country or

jurisdiction unless such action is in compliance with all applicable laws and regulations of such country or jurisdiction. RSL requires such recipient to inform himself about and to observe any restrictions

at his own expense, without any liability to RSL. Any dispute arising out of this Report shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the Courts in India.

Disclosure of Interest: The research analysts who have prepared this Report hereby certify that the views /opinions expressed in this Report are their personal independent views/opinions in respect of

the securities and their respective issuers. None of RSL, research analysts, or their relatives had any known direct /indirect material conflict of interest including any long/short position(s) in any specific

security on which views/opinions have been made in this Report, during its preparation. RSL’s Associates may have other potential/material conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and

related information and opinions at the time of publication of research report. RSL, its Associates, the research analysts, or their relatives might have financial interest in the issuer company(ies) of the

said securities. RSL or its Associates may have received a compensation from the said issuer company(ies) in last 12 months for the brokerage or non brokerage services.RSL, its Associates, the research

analysts or their relatives have not received any compensation or other benefits directly or indirectly from the said issuer company(ies) or any third party in last 12 months in any respect whatsoever for

preparation of this report.

The research analysts has served as an officer, director or employee of the said issuer company(ies)?: No

RSL, its Associates, the research analysts or their relatives holds ownership of 1% or more, in respect of the said issuer company(ies).?: No

Copyright: The copyright in this Report belongs exclusively to RSL. This Report shall only be read by those persons to whom it has been delivered. No reprinting, reproduction, copying, distribution of this

Report in any manner whatsoever, in whole or in part, is permitted without the prior express written consent of RSL.

RSL’s activities were neither suspended nor have defaulted with any stock exchange with whom RSL is registered. Further, there does not exist any material adverse order/judgments/strictures assessed

by any regulatory, government or public authority or agency or any law enforcing agency in last three years. Further, there does not exist any material enquiry of whatsoever nature instituted or pending

against RSL as on the date of this Report.

Important These disclaimers, risks and other disclosures must be read in conjunction with the information / opinions / views of which they form part of.

RSL CIN: U65990MH2005PLC154052. SEBI registration no. ( Stock Brokers: NSE - INB / INF / INE 231234833; BSE - INB / INF / INE 011234839, Depository Participants: CDSL IN-DP-257-2016 IN-DP-

NSDL-363-2013, Research Analyst: INH000002384); AMFI ARN No.29889.

Date Reco CMP TP

05-Apr-19 REDUCE 485 520

22-Jan-19 REDUCE 554 520

23-Oct-18 HOLD 535 585

07-Aug-18 HOLD 549 585

16-May-18 BUY 611 700

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Rating History