Turquoise CEE Event 3 October 2017 · ‒ Inflation: Year-over-year to remain low into early 2018,...

4 October 2017 London Stock Exchange Group

Turquoise CEE Event

3 October 2017

Opening Remarks

Dr Robert Barnes

CEO, Turquoise

Central Eastern Europe

Macroeconomic Summary

Elina Ribakova

MD, Chief Economist, Deutsche Bank

Research Deutsche Bank

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CEE: A strong cyclical upturn

September 2017

Elina Ribakova, Chief Economist

Kubilay M. Öztürk, Chief Türkiye and Senior EMEA Economist

Research

Deutsche Bank Elina Ribakova| +44(20)7547-1340| [email protected]

Kubilay M. Öztürk| +90 212 317 01 24 | [email protected]

May 2017

Overview of the Global Economy

5

− US economy

‒ Slightly above consensus growth forecast as consumer rebounds from unusually soft Q1; stronger

capex key driver of pickup

‒ Assumption of only modest boost from policy (e.g., deregulation and modest tax cuts)

‒ Labor market at full employment & should improve further: unemployment to fall near 3.5%

‒ Inflation: Year-over-year to remain low into early 2018, but inflation should normalize beyond

− Fed

‒ Pause in Sep to announce reinvestment phase out

‒ Inflation outlook is crucial for rate hikes: hike in Dec, three more in 2018, neutral rate below 3%

− Global outlook

‒ Faster, more synchronized growth in 2017

‒ Past peak central bank easing: Fed hiking, ECB tapering, hawkish shift by other CBs

− Risks

‒ Upside: more meaningful fiscal stimulus in US

‒ Downside: inflation fails to rise, (geo)political escalation

‒ In 2018 / 19: China financial stability; Fed falls behind the curve, forced to tighten more aggressively

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

Research



May 2017

-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.10.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.7

-1.6-1.4-1.2-1.0-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.4

Sep-14Mar-15Oct-15Apr-16Nov-16May-17

%QoQ Index SIREN Momentum (ls)

SIREN Surprise (ls)

Date of data release

DB SIREN

Europe growth momentum has been solid

6

Source: Markit, ECB, Haver Analytics, Deutsche Bank Research

‒ Strong external demand is likely to be well

supported by recent developments in Euro

area’s activity. Our European econ team

trackers point at Q3 momentum closely

following Q2, and implying 0.7% qoq GDP

growth.

‒ At the same time imported inflation is likely to

remain benign.

Expected inflation eases

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

EM AsiaEMEALatAmIMF all commodity price, rhs

CPI, SA, 3m/3m, ann. SA, 3m/3m, ann.

Research



May 2017

CEE Regional

7

Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank Elina Ribakova| +44(20)7547-1340| [email protected]


May 2017

CEE Regional : CE3 linked to bunds, EU-US relations after Trump

Source: NATO, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research

8

• CEE appears to be relatively insulated from impact of a Trump presidency, at least in near-

term

• Business & financial cycles in CEE structurally synchronized with EA.

•Though direct exposure to US is limited, bilateral economic and political links between US-EU

in a Trump presidency will likely set the tone for CEE.

• NATO’s role ahead will also be important for the Baltic and Balkan countries as well as Poland

– countries with under-funded NATO commitments likely to be under scanner.

• While President-elect Trump’s bias for a less globalized order could mean a structural

downward shift in trade flows, bilateral deals are likely to become the norm.

•Weaker local currencies as well as EUR could help CEE exports in short term.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

MX

N

HK

D

SG

D

MY

R

TH

B

ILS

KR

W

CO

P

CN

Y

CLP

PH

P

PE

N

HU

F

ZA

R

INR

CZ

K

IDR

BR

L

PL

N

TR

Y

RU

B

RO

N

AR

S

UA

H

Exports to US % GDP



May 2017

CEE Regional : Risks from disorderly Brexit high

Source: BIS, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research

9

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9Higher risk Lower risk

Residual

exposure Exposure to UK Exposure to EU ex-UK

% GDP Exports

Banking

claims FDI position FPI flows Exports

Banking

claims FDI position FPI flows EU funds

Czech 4.6 2.0 1.3 2.6 68.0 70.8 53.7 5.3 14.4

Hungary 3.3 1.5 5.0 4.6 63.3 42.9 100.5 22.0 20.5

Israel 1.4 0.9 - 2.2 4.8 2.8 - 2.1 -

Poland 2.8 1.2 1.3 2.1 30.3 45.3 34.9 14.4 14.9

Romania 1.5 0.1 0.9 1.0 23.6 38.6 34.3 9.8 9.0

Russia 0.6 0.5 0.5 1.1 11.9 5.7 9.7 2.2 -

S.Africa 1.2 19.8 17.9 4.6 4.4 4.2 12.6 13.3 -

Turkey 1.5 3.7 0.8 2.2 7.4 18.7 10.9 8.7 -

Ukraine 0.4 0.1 1.5 0.3 14.0 11.1 24.1 2.9 -

0.3 low risk (lower quartile)

1.5 moderate risk (interquartile range)

25.0 high risk (upper quartile)



May 2017

CEE Regional: Macro vulnerability: Low across region

Source: Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research

10

Growth InflationCredit

growth

Private

debtReal rates

Current

account

Reserve

cover

FX

valuation

Public

debt

Fiscal

balanceOverall

Z-score YoY% Excess % % GDP % % GDP % GEFR % % GDP % GDP Percentile

VEN -0.66 180.9 24.8 47.5 -59.2 -1.6 27.0 402.0 31.7 -14.5 0.78

ZAF -0.66 6.3 -0.8 75.5 1.0 -3.2 115.7 0.7 50.9 -3.5 0.63

CHN -0.76 1.4 5.3 145.2 2.6 1.5 345.5 7.3 47.0 -3.7 0.56

BRZ -0.48 4.9 -5.1 61.3 7.7 -1.1 524.0 18.2 79.0 -9.0 0.55

UKR -0.14 13.9 -22.3 41.4 -0.7 -3.7 77.6 -17.7 83.4 -2.4 0.55

SGP -0.63 0.6 3.2 135.5 0.3 19.1 27.0 -4.0 112.0 2.9 0.53

TUR -0.32 10.2 1.1 57.7 0.9 -3.9 78.2 -14.9 29.3 -2.4 0.53

MEX -0.28 4.3 6.7 51.5 1.3 -2.7 218.8 -15.9 57.9 -2.9 0.52

COL -0.64 5.5 0.9 48.0 2.2 -4.4 175.3 -7.8 47.1 -3.3 0.52

ARG 23.81 34.0 -2.8 13.5 -7.9 -2.8 87.7 -18.7 50.8 -5.9 0.52

MAL 0.19 4.3 -0.6 121.5 -0.8 2.2 104.4 -19.4 56.2 -3.0 0.50

IND -0.54 3.6 -1.1 56.1 4.1 -0.5 386.5 -0.1 69.1 -6.5 0.49

CHL -0.72 2.8 1.4 81.4 0.7 -1.9 185.9 -12.2 22.1 -2.9 0.48

KOR -0.25 2.1 1.8 167.8 -0.6 6.6 356.9 5.7 38.6 0.4 0.45

ISR 0.19 0.5 0.3 109.5 -0.4 3.8 331.8 4.0 62.3 -2.7 0.44

POL 0.26 2.1 1.4 52.9 -0.4 0.0 216.6 -9.3 54.3 -2.6 0.43

HKG 0.11 0.6 0.6 332.1 0.4 4.6 43.2 15.6 0.1 4.0 0.42

CZE 0.52 2.4 1.5 55.9 -2.1 0.6 198.4 1.3 37.3 0.1 0.42

TWN -0.42 0.8 2.4 145.2 -0.1 12.8 258.8 -7.5 35.0 -1.6 0.41

PHL 0.23 3.2 7.0 52.1 -0.8 -0.2 530.6 -1.3 33.4 -0.6 0.41

IDN -0.93 3.6 -0.7 32.2 3.1 -1.5 207.3 -1.9 27.9 -2.5 0.40

HUN 0.67 2.7 -7.4 33.5 -2.4 4.9 193.1 -4.2 74.0 -2.0 0.38

THA 0.02 1.3 -0.7 122.3 0.3 10.2 342.6 4.3 42.1 -0.1 0.37

RUS -0.37 4.6 -2.4 49.9 5.8 2.7 779.2 6.4 17.1 -3.4 0.36

ROM 0.12 0.2 -4.9 28.9 0.5 -2.6 134.4 -7.3 39.5 -2.7 0.36

PER -0.69 3.2 -1.5 34.7 1.8 -2.0 552.2 -6.4 25.1 -2.3 0.35

0.3 0.5 0.8

VEN

ZAF

CHN

BRZ

UKR

SGP

TUR

MEX

COL

ARG

MAL

IND

CHL

KOR

ISR

POL

HKG

CZE

TWN

PHL

IDN

HUN

THA

RUS

ROM

PER



May 2017

CZECH REPUBLIC

11



May 2017 04/10/2017 10:41:32 2010 DB Blue template

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Source: Haver Analytics, CNB, DB Global Markets Research

Czech Republic: real economy – A strong cyclical upturn...

12

Household consumption growth accelerated above

4.3% YoY in Q2, on the back of strong wage growth,

consumer confidence and accommodative

monetary policy....but may have lost some

momentum

A variety of monthly frequency indicators since

the later part of Q2 showed some deceleration.

Trend in EU fund absorption possibly to continue

grinding upwards and the economy to continue

benefiting from the drawdown funds until 2018 H2.

Tight labour conditions continue to support growth

via enhanced disposable income and resilient

consumer demand

Exports’ competitiveness is likely to be eroded by

the strong substitution effect between base-wages

and flexible-wages.

Net exports are likely to start negatively contributing

to growth since H1 2018.

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Q2-10 Q2-11 Q2-12 Q2-13 Q2-14 Q2-15 Q2-16 Q2-17

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Stocks GFCF

Govt Cons Pvt Cons

pp contribution YoY%

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17

% YoY % YoY / pp

Merchandise exports (rhs)

IP



May 2017

Czech Republic: fx – peg was finally removed in Apr-17…resulting in an engineered overshoot of internal inflation pressures

Source: NBH, Haver Analytics

13

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

Sep-07 Sep-09 Sep-11 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-17

Verbal intervention

Verbal intervention

CNB introduced the exchange-rate target of 27/EUR

CNB first mentions possibility of direct fx intervention

CNB removed FX floor

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17

CNB intervention

FX reserves (rhs)

EURbn EURbn

Introduction of fx floor

removal of fx floor



May 2017

Czech Republic: inflation – stabilise near target in 2018


14

We expect pressures from imported inflation to

stay subdued, while pressures from wages may

continue to grow until 2018H1.

Economy to start cooling off as a result of

continuous Koruna appreciation and/or agent’s

expectations of a sequence of rate hikes.

Though, continuous firming up of the Business

confidence indicator may also propel price-setters

to increase their mark-ups, posing a persistent

upside risk to Q3 inflation and beyond.

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17

12-month-ahead consumer price trends

Industry selling price expectations (rhs)

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

CPI

CNB inflation target

CNB Policy rate (%)

% YoY

forecast



May 2017

Czech Republic: CNB: not now, but in November

Source: CNB, Deutsche Bank

15

The CNB kept its rates on hold at its September 27 meeting.

• The official CNB board statement contained embedded hints of hawkishness related to

the build-up of domestic pressures.

• Revealed preference shows that a tightening bias is favoured by a significant fraction of

the MPC members, even if the projected inflation under the central bank's baseline has

less than 50% probability of exceeding the CNB target by more than one percentage

point (limit of the tolerance band)

• Risks of a hawkish tone of 'management of inflation expectations' remain high.

• Thus, we expect a 25bp hike in November 2017.

Beyond 2017, we retain our scenario of two hikes of 25bps each in 2018.

• With risk of another 25bp hike should external inflationary conditions mature by 2018 Q3,

and/or should non-linear effects finally commence in the relationship between wage and

consumer inflation.



May 2017

Czech Republic: Opinion polls show ANO in comfortable lead

* 6.8% vote share in 2013 is for KDU-CSL only. STAN fought along with Top 09 and secured 12.0% vote share in 2013..

Source: Sanep, Phoenix Research, CVVM, STEM/MARK, TNS Aisa, Median, ppm Factum, Médea Research, Focus, Kantar TNS,

Deutsche Bank

16

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

ČSSD

ANO

KSČM

TOP 09

ODS

Opinion polls: Vote %

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

AN

O

ČS

SD

KS

ČM

KD

U_…

OD

S

TO

P 0

9

SP

D

PIR

ÁT

I

RE

AL

ZE

LE

NÍ

SV

OB

…

ÚS

VIT

Median Max Min

Opinion poll vote share: 25 June - 14 %

Party M edian2013 election

results*Change

ANO 28.3 18.7 9.6

ČSSD 13.4 20.5 -7.0

KSČM 11.9 14.9 -3.0

KDU_CSL + STAN 10.0 7.7 2.3

ODS 9.6 6.8 2.8

TOP 09 6.5 12.0 -5.5

SPD 5.5 N.A N.A

PIRÁTI 4.0 2.7 1.3

REAL 3.5 N.A N.A

ZELENÍ 2.0 3.2 -1.2

SVOBODNÍ 1.5 2.5 -1.0

Others 3.8 11.1

Opinion poll vote share: 25 June - 14 September

**Moving median of 8 consecutive opinion polls

While broad policy continuity is

expected with an ANO win, the

difficulties posed by coalition

forming may lead to a moderate

rise in economic policy

uncertainty.




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Source: DB Global Markets Research

Czech Republic: key risks

17

The main risk for the Czech Republic is external

#1: EU slowdown – The very open nature of the economy means that any meaningful

slowdown in the European Union due to a disorderly Brexit or spill over from the Italian

banking crisis will quickly impact on the Czech Republic.

#2: Inflation - We see upside risks that the CNB would like to distance its policy rates as

far away and as fast as possible away from the ZLB, given the conjuncture provided by

the strength of the current cycle.

#3: Elections – The difficulties posed by coalition forming post October election may lead

to a moderate rise in economic policy uncertainty.

#4: Risk aversion – The rising volume and share of non-resident holdings leaves the T-

bond market increasingly vulnerable to wider EM risk aversion.

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17

Non-residents holding (T-bonds)

% total

140

240

340

440

540

640

740

840

Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17

Non-residents holdings (T-bonds + T-bills)

CZKbn



May 2017

POLAND

18




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Poland: real economy – growth resilient

19

We expect the economy to keep growing above

potential for the rest of the year, and commence a

gradual deceleration towards 3.5% YoY growth by

end 2018.

Labour market remains tight and wage growth is

forecast to accelerate in an environment of all-

time low unemployment rates.

Fiscal transfers to households also are expected

to support disposable income this year.

Low interest environment aids consumption

through borrowing.

Investments are likely to recover in 2017 as more

projects financed by EU funds under the new

2014-2020 programming

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Q2-10 Q2-11 Q2-12 Q2-13 Q2-14 Q2-15 Q2-16 Q2-17

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Stocks GFCF

Govt Cons Pvt Cons

Net Exports Real GDP (rhs)


-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10


pp % YoY IP (sa)

Real gross wagesRetail salesManufacturing PMI (vs. 50,rhs)



May 2017

Poland: inflation risks


20

Inflation accelerated to 2.2% YoY in September

accompanied by a 0.4% MoM increase.

But core inflation remains missing in action.

Factors such as favourable base effect and

lagged effects from weakening import prices

point towards loss of pressure from headline

CPI inflation, for the rest of the year and into

2018Q1.

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

13-0

3

13-0

6

13-0

9

13-1

2

14-0

3

14-0

6

14-0

9

14-1

2

15-0

3

15-0

6

15-0

9

15-1

2

16-0

3

16-0

6

16-0

9

16-1

2

17-0

3

17-0

6

17-0

9

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5Food

Energy and transportation

CPI ex. energy, food and transportation

Headline CPI (rhs)

pp contribution YoY

%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6 CPI

NBP inflation target

Core (ex. food and energy)

12m ahead expectations (rhs)

YoY% %

Forecasts

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-15

-5

5

15

25

35

45

55

Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17

12-month-ahead consumer price trends

Industry selling price expectations (rhs)



May 2017

Poland: rates outlook - Expect NBP to retain a watchful approach with an explicit dovish bias

Source: NBP , Bloomberg, Reuters, DB Global Markets Research

21

The NBP retains neutral bias despite upward revision to inflation forecasts.

•We anticipate the well known hawkish MPC members to keep voicing their concerns about

negative real interest rates in the following months

•However, we think the marginal voter may only start leaning towards considering voicing

disagreements more openly from the rest of the board if

• we were to see not only upward surprises in headline inflation in the coming months,

• but some transmission from those surprises into core inflation,

• which has been on a downward trajectory for the past four months, and stood at

0.7% YoY in August.

•The majority of the members of the MPC remains Dovish.

• At the last MPC press conference it was highlighted that a low interest rate

environment is still necessary to foster the needed pickup in private investment.




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Poland: fiscal – a planned widening in deficit

22

# 2017 budget deficit set at 2.9% of GDP is likely to be no higher than 2.6% of GDP

# Poland's central budget posted a surplus of PLN 5.9 bln in H12017, as compared to a deficit of PLN 18.7 bln

in last year. Value added tax revenue rose by 28.1% YoY, helping total tax revenue increase by 17.7%. The

budget was also supported by a PLN 8.7 bln payment of the central bank profit into state coffers in June.

# 2018 budget bill deficit foreseen at PLN 41.5bn (2.7% of GDP)

# The budget revenue is planned to be PLN 355 bln, with expenditures assumed to reach PLN 397 bln, leaving

the deficit at somewhere around PLN 41.5 billion. Economic growth had been put at 3.9% of GDP and inflation

at 2.3% in the 2018 budget bill.

# The 2017 budget to be scrutinized closely:

- based on a slightly ambitious 3.6% growth

- The budget assumes 8-9% rise in tax revenues – pointing to slight over-reliance on a robust nominal

consumption pattern ahead

- increasing cost of the child benefit in 2017

- planned lowering of the statutory retirement age (as of Q4 2017)

- partial hike in tax-free allowances

- higher EU co-financed investments

- retail tax has been deferred to 2018

# Rating agencies, particularly Moody’s with a negative outlook, will keep a close eye on the trajectory of

Polish public finances for 2017 and beyond. Moody’s has already said in a statement that the cut in retirement

age is credit negative for Poland and could push general government deficit beyond 3% of GDP in 2018.

# The government already recognizes the risks to their budget and is trying to boost its fiscal position by

encouraging workers to work past the official retirement age and also plans to further reduce tax avoidance.



May 2017

Poland: fx –impacted by politics and Brexit; one of cheapest currencies in EM on valuations

Source: NBP, Haver Analytics< Deutsche Bank (YTD through Sept 22th)

FX valuations from “FX Valuation Snapshot – (April 2017)”: author Gautam Kalani (EMEA FX strategist)

23

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

Sep-09 Sep-11 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-17

EURPLN

NBP intervened 4 times

between Sep 2011 and

Nov 2011

NBP intervened

again in June 2013

NBP intervened in

April 2010 to

weaken the zloty

0

5

10

15

20

TRY RUB ZAR RON EUR HUF PLN CZK

YtD change /

USD

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.71.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Aug-02 Aug-05 Aug-08 Aug-11 Aug-14 Aug-17

PLNUSD (lhs)

EURUSD (rhs, inverted axis)

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

Aug-09Aug-10Aug-11Aug-12Aug-13Aug-14Aug-15Aug-16Aug-17

DBeer FEER PPP



May 2017

Poland: Politics

Source: Millward Brown / RMF, IBRiS, CBOS, IPSOS / TVP, PressMix, Millward Brown / "GW", Pracownia Mediowa, TNS Poland / "Fakt", TNS Poland,

TNS Poland / "GW", Kantar Public / CBOS,Dobra Opinia, Kantar Public / wSieci, IBRiS / ZET, PAS-P, IPSOS / OKO, Millward Brown, Kantar Public / "GW", Kantar Public / TVP,

IPSOS, Kantar Public, IBRiS / "Rz", Pollster, Estymator, IBRiS / Onet, Deutsche Bank

24

The next parliamentary elections will be held by November 2019

Law and Justice (PiS) party formed a majority government post 2015 elections.

There will be elections for the 200 seats of the Chamber of Deputies, and the leader of the

resultant government is to become the Prime Minister.

Law and Justice (PiS) party is leading as per latest opinion polls for next election.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17

PiS

PO

K'15

.N

PSL

SLD

Opinion polls: Vote share* %





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Poland: key risks

25

Government policy to dominate risks

#1: Fiscal outlook – The initial budget for 2018 will be closely watched. The cabinet projects

Poland’s economic growth at 3.8 per cent and inflation rate of 2.3 per cent. The

unemployment should not exceed 6.4 per cent.

#2: CHF mortgage conversion plan – Risks to the banking sector remain and will depend on

the measures that will be put in place to induce banks to convert CHF mortgages to zloty.

Costs to banks, however, likely to be spread out over a longer time-frame.

#3: Constitutional crisis – The crisis is far from over and could continue to generate

negative headlines for some time exerting downward pressure on investment climate.

#4: Further divisions with EU - Concerns have re-emerged that Poland’s relationship with

the EU is likely to strain further and that Poland will have to cope with a smaller inflow of

EU funds in the new EU budget cycle that will start in 2021. The issue regarding EU migrant

quotas could also blow up.

#5: Ratings – The rating agencies, particularly Moody’s with a negative outlook , will

continue to monitor any fiscal risks for 2017 and beyond as well as growth dynamics and

political risks in the form of the Constitutional Tribunal row and further details regarding the

FX mortgage relief.

#6: Domestic political volatility – Large protests against the ruling PiS government in May.

Protests against the government’s “curbs on democracy” and its anti-EU stance. Recent

opinion polls show opposition PO ahead of the PiS for the first time since 2015.

#7: EU slowdown – Although growth is currently a domestic-led dynamic any meaningful

drop back in the European recovery or a disorderly Brexit would have an impact.



May 2017

HUNGARY

26




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Hungary: real economy – growth pick up faster than expected

27

KSH reported the final estimate of Q2 GDP at

0.9 % QoQ, taking YoY growth to 3.2% (NBH

2.9%, consensus 3.6%) .

According to KSH, main contributors to

growth are industry and market-based

services.

Domestic absorption will likely remain the

main driver of growth from the expenditure

side as evidenced by the continued uptick in

retail sales.

YTD high frequency indicators continue to

point to tight conditions in the labor market,

as manifested in almost all-time low

unemployment rate (4.2% in July) and real

wage growth hovering close to 12% YoY

(also following the strong minimum wage

hike).

IP dropped unexpectedly in July, mostly

because of decline in automobile production,

probably on the back of summer breaks.

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Q2-10 Q2-11 Q2-12 Q2-13 Q2-14 Q2-15 Q2-16 Q2-17

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Stocks GFCF Govt Cons

Pvt Cons Net Exports Real GDP (rhs)


-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


Manufacturing PMI (vs. 50, pp)

Real gross wages (YoY%)

Retail sales (wda, YoY%)

IP (wda, % YoY)



May 2017

Hungary: Inflation likely to remain below target for forecasting horizon

Source: NBH , Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research

28

-NBH’s updated estimates in the June

forecasting round still envisages sustainable

fulfillment of the target only by mid-2019

-The Bank kept its 2017 annual headline

forecast intact to 2.4%YoY (DB: 2.3%) while

slashing the 2018 and 2019 forecast by 0.3pp

and 0.1pp to 2.5% and 2.9% respectively.

-Assumption for core CPI was slightly upgraded

in light of rising wage-cost pressure as well as

higher imported inflation, whose combined

impact was envisaged to be partially dampened

by a lower rate on employers’ social

contribution and corporate income tax.

-Barring adverse oscillation in energy prices,

NBH’s inflation outlook seems plausible, in our

view.

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18

% YoY Forecasts

Headline

annual

NBH inflation

target DB

forecasts

NBH Jun'17

forecasts

Core CPI

exc. indirect

taxes

NBH: inflation

expectations



May 2017

Hungary: NBH: Business as usual

Source: NBH, Haver Analytics , DB Global Markets Research

29

•NBH still remaining committed to maintain the current base rate and loose monetary

conditions for an extended period.

•The MPC has also reiterated its readiness to ease monetary conditions further, via

unconventional, targeted instruments, if inflation remains persistently below the 3% target.

Hence, it is business as usual on monetary policy front.

•The Q2 GDP print transpired above the National Bank of Hungary’s (NBH) latest estimate

(3.6%). Yet, we do not think such upside surprise would trigger a re-calibration in the MPC’s

stance any time soon.

•Next decision on the limit for three-month deposits will be in October and until then NBH will

remain on auto-pilot with a well-known bias for easing – notwithstanding the strong economic

activity in Q2.

•The limit on the 3-month deposit facility has been fixed at HUF75bn. Given its expectations for

a declining liquidity in the banking system and also policy-makers’ inclination to keep monetary

conditions as loose as they are now, monetary policy instruments currently relevant for the

markets are the stock and maturity of swap instruments, as well as the possibility of a further

decline in the lower band (i.e. O/N deposit rate).

• Limited compression in the 3M BUBOR rate is possible in the near term while a gradual rise

seems likely starting in H2 2018, i.e. after general out of the way and headline inflation starts

converging to the 3% target in a consistent way.

•Other targeted measures, such as extension of the FGS and/or the Growth Supporting

Program, however seem slightly less likely following the strong Q2 GDP print.



May 2017

Hungary: fiscal policy – a looser fiscal stance ahead of 2018 elections

Source: Haver Analytics, DB Global Market Research

30

•Fiscal policy to remain accommodative in 2018. Parliament adopted the 2018 national budget

on 15th June.

•Main priorities of the Budget comprise increasing employment, improving security, and

supporting growth.

•Budget deficit is foreseen at 2.4% of GDP, i.e. unchanged from the 2017 target.

•Around 6%YoY rise in expenditures due to higher social and defence spending and enhanced

housing and infrastructure projects are planned.

•To be financed by improved revenues (7.4%YoY) thanks to better economic activity, and hence

higher VAT receipts.

•The recently submitted update to the EU on the Convergence Programme also confirms that

the government has formally postponed the fiscal consolidation until after the 2018 elections

as a more nuanced decline in public debt is projected only from 2019 onwards.

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018F

Budget balance (ESA 2010)

Primary balance

% GDP

72.8

71.5

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

Government debt % GDP



May 2017

Hungary: Politics

Source: Medián, Tárki, Publicus, Republikon, Nézőpont, Századvég, Iránytű, ZRI , Deutsche Bank

31

The next parliamentary elections will be held by Spring 2018

In 2014 elections Fidesz and its alliance Christian Democratic People’s Party(KDNP) achieved

two-thirds majority to form the government .

Fidesz- KDNP is leading as per latest opinion polls for next election.


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17

Fidesz-KDNP

MSZP

Jobbik

LMP

DK

Opinion polls: Vote share* %



May 2017

CEE Regional: Public debt and external liabilities : Hungary stands out, CZ non-resident holdings on sharp rise


32

34.1

20.9

26.2

33.6

18.0

45.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

PLN HUF CZK

Jul-16

Jul-17

non-resident holdings (% total)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

PL HU CZ

Foreign currency Local currencyPublic sector debt

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

Czech Hungary Poland Romania

2011 2012 2013

2014 2015 2016

2017*

Net IIP % of 0

50

100

150

Czech Hungary Poland Romania

2011 20122013 20142015 20162017*

External debt % GDP




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Hungary: key risks

33

External and fiscal risks dominate

#1: EU slowdown – As a highly open economy any meaningful slowdown in the

European Union would quickly impact Hungary’s growth outlook. Repercussions

from a disorderly Brexit and spill over from the Italian banking crisis are also likely

to impact Hungary. Spillover from European politics has receded.

#2: Monetary policy instruments – Ongoing tinkering with the monetary policy

framework leaves uncertainty over what else is to come.

#3: Large external/public financing requirement - Hungary’s large NIIP position and

external debt obligations as compared to peers leaves it vulnerable to external

shocks.

#4: Fiscal – Fiscal policy is to remain accommodative ahead of the elections in 2018.

The recently submitted update to the EU on the Convergence Programme also

confirms that the government has formally postponed the fiscal consolidation until

after the 2018 elections as a more nuanced decline in public debt is projected only

from 2019 onwards.

#5: EU migrant quotas – Hungary has so far refused to accept any refugees and are

against the mandatory migrant quotas of the EU. The EC has reportedly given a

deadline of June to both Poland and Hungary to start accepting refugees or face

sanctions.



May 2017

Additional Tables

34




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Global forecast overview

35

2016 2017F 2018F 2016 2017F 2018F 2016 2017F 2018F 2016 2017F 2018F

Euro land (top-down) 1.8 2.2 2.0 0.2 1.5 1.4 3.5 3.0 2.6 -1.5 -1.3 -1.3

Germanyb 1.9 1.9 1.8 0.4 1.6 1.6 8.4 8.0 7.8 0.8 0.5 0.2

France 1.1 1.7 1.7 0.3 1.1 1.1 -0.9 -0.5 -0.6 -3.4 -3.0 -2.7

Italyb 0.9 1.5 1.2 -0.1 1.4 1.2 2.6 2.6 2.3 -2.4 -2.3 -2.2

Spain 3.2 3.0 2.5 -0.3 2.0 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.7 -4.5 -3.4 -2.5

Netherlands 2.2 3.2 3.3 0.1 1.2 1.3 9.0 10.2 10.2 0.4 1.1 0.5

Belgium 1.2 1.9 2.0 1.8 2.2 1.7 -0.4 0.0 0.5 -2.6 -2.1 -1.8

Austria 1.6 2.4 1.9 1.0 2.1 1.8 1.7 2.0 2.3 -1.6 -1.0 -0.8

Finland 1.9 2.5 1.9 0.4 0.9 1.2 -1.1 -0.5 0.0 -1.9 -0.8 -0.4

Greece 0.0 1.5 2.7 0.0 1.2 0.8 -0.6 -0.5 0.0 0.7 -2.0 -1.5

Portugal 1.5 2.6 1.7 0.6 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.4 -2.0 -1.6 -1.4

Ireland 5.1 4.5 3.7 -0.2 0.3 1.1 3.3 4.5 3.5 -0.6 0.0 0.0

Ukh 1.8 1.6 1.0 0.6 2.6 2.7 -4.4 -3.8 -3.5 -2.9 -2.9 -2.6

Sweden 3.1 2.7 2.4 1.0 1.6 1.8 4.7 4.8 4.8 1.9 0.7 0.7

Denmark 1.7 1.6 1.8 0.3 1.2 1.4 6.5 7.5 7.3 -2.1 -1.2 -0.7

Norway 0.7 1.3 1.9 3.6 2.0 2.0 4.4 6.1 6.4 3.0 3.6 3.8

Switzerland 1.4 1.5 1.9 -0.3 0.3 0.3 9.5 11.2 11.0 -0.1 0.5 0.5

Poland 2.7 3.9 3.4 -0.6 1.8 1.9 -0.3 -1.2 -1.4 -2.5 -2.7 -2.9

Hungary 2.0 3.8 3.5 0.4 2.3 2.5 5.5 3.0 2.3 -1.9 -2.3 -2.4

Czech Republic 2.5 3.8 3.0 0.7 2.4 2.2 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.0

US 1.5 2.1 2.4 1.3 2.2 2.0 -2.6 -2.9 -3.2 -3.1 -3.6 -2.8

China 6.7 6.7 6.3 2.0 1.7 2.7 1.8 1.3 1.1 -3.8 -4.0 -4.0

Japan 1.0 1.5 0.7 -0.1 0.3 0.4 3.7 4.0 4.2 -3.5 -3.5 -3.1

Advanced Economies 1.6 2.1 2.0 0.7 1.7 1.6

Emerging M arkets 4.1 4.7 4.9 6.3 8.8 17.0

Worlde 3.1 3.6 3.7 4.0 5.9 10.8

Real GDP % growthb CPI % growthc Current a/c % GDP d Fiscal balance % GDP



May 2017

36

Czech

Republic Hungary Poland

Jan-17 24-Jan 11-Jan

Feb-17 2-Feb 28-Feb 8-Feb

M ar-17 30-M ar 28-M ar 8-M ar

A pr-17 25-A pr 5-A pr

M ay-17 4-M ay 23-M ay 12-M ay

Jun-17 29-Jun 20-Jun 7-Jun

Jul-17 18-Jul 5-Jul

A ug-17 3-A ug 22-A ug

Sep-17 27-Sep 19-Sep 6-Sep

Oct-17 24-Oct 4-Oct

Nov-17 2-Nov 21-Nov 8-Nov

Dec-17 21-Dec 19-Dec 5-Dec

Central Bank meetings in 2017

S&P Current

Czech Republic AA- (Stable) 20-Jan 21-Jul

Hungary BBB- (Stable) 24-Feb 25-Aug

Poland BBB+ (Stable) 21-Apr 20-Oct

Fitch

Czech Republic A+ (Stable) 7-Apr 1-Sep

Hungary BBB- (Stable) 12-M ay 10-Nov

Poland A- (Stable) 13-Jan 7-Jul 8-Dec

M oody's

Czech Republic A1 (Stable) 10-Feb 9-Jun 22-Sep

Hungary Baa3 (Stable) 3-M ar 7-Jul 20-Oct

Poland A2 (Negative) 13-Jan 12-M ay 8-Sep

2017 releases

Sovereign credit rating announcement calendar

Current Policy Rate Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

Czech 0.25 0.50 0.50 0.75

Hungary 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90

Poland 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50

Policy Rate Forecasts




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Czech Republic: Key Forecasts

37

2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

External Accounts (USD bn)

Goods Exports 128.4 131.0 131.5 144.2

Goods Imports 120.8 120.8 121.7 134.5

Trade Balance 7.6 10.2 9.8 9.6

% of GDP 4.1 5.2 5.1 4.7

Current Account Balance 0.4 2.2 2.3 2.0

% of GDP 0.2 1.1 1.2 1.0

FDI (net) - 2.0 5.8 3.7 4.4

FX Reserves (eop) 61.3 82.8 120.1 103.1

USD/CZK (eop) 24.82 26.07 22.22 21.42

EUR/CZK (eop) 27.0 27.5 26.0 25.7

Debt Indicators (% of GDP)

Government Debt 40.3 37.2 36.6 36.2

Domestic 23.2 19.1 17.5 18.1

External 17.2 18.2 19.2 18.2

External debt 68.9 70.5 69.8 62.8

in USD bn 128.7 137.6 133.5 129.3

Short-term (% of total) 44.4 48.1 44.1 45.5

General (ann. avg)

Industrial Production (YoY%) 4.7 3.6 3.9 3.2

Unemployment (%) 6.5 5.5 4.4 5.0

Current 17Q4F 18Q1F 18Q2F

Financial M arkets

Key official interest rate (eop) 0.25 0.50 0.50 0.75

PRIBOR 3M rate (eop) 0.47 0.50

10Y yield (eop) 1.26 1.10 1.25 1.35

USD/CZK (eop) 22.18 22.22 21.95 21.76

EUR/CZK (eop) 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.9

2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

National Income

Nominal GDP (USDbn) 187 195 191 206

Population (mn) 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.6

GDP per capita (USD) 17 753 18 515 18 116 19 506

Real GDP (YoY%) 5.4 2.5 3.8 3.0

Private Consumption 3.7 3.5 4.6 3.8

Government consumption 1.9 2.0 3.5 2.7

Gross Fixed Investment 13.1 - 2.4 1.8 4.4

Exports 6.2 4.3 3.8 3.8

Imports 7.0 3.1 3.5 4.8

Prices, M oney and Banking (YoY%)

CPI (eop) 0.0 2.0 2.2 2.1

CPI (annual avg) 0.3 0.7 2.4 2.2

Broad money (eop) 8.4 6.6 6.2 5.9

Fiscal Accounts (% of GDP)

Fiscal balance - 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0

Revenue 41.4 40.5 41.0 40.8

Expenditure 42.1 39.9 40.7 40.8

Primary Balance 0.5 1.5 1.3 1.1




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Poland: key forecasts

38




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Hungary: key forecasts

39

Elina Ribakova| +44(20)7547-1340| [email protected]


May 2017

Appendix 1 – Important Disclosures Additional information Available Upon Request

40



May 2017

Regulatory Disclosures

41



May 2017

42

Country Focus: Hungary

Róbert Ésik

President, Hungarian Investment

Promotion Agency

Country Focus: HUNGARY SMART. AMBITIOUS. COMPETITIVE.

Robert ÉSIK President

HIPA

03 October 2017

HUNGARY

HUNGARY Strategic location

Easy access to the 500 million EU market: • At the crossroads of 3

TEN-T corridors

• 6 European capitals available only in a few hours of driving

• Most of the major European capitals within 2 hours by air

• Connecting European gauge railway network with Eastern broad gauge system

HUNGARY Stable and growing economy

• Continuous GDP growth (3.5%, Q2 2017)

• Stable budget deficit (-1.8% of GDP, 2016)

• 0.4% inflation in 2016

• 4.2% unemployment (July 2017)

• EUR 845

Average gross earnings

• EUR 19,735 GDP/capita (2015)

Investment grade with stable outlook

HUNGARY Foreign trade-focused foreign policy

70

62

51

40 39

30

Hungary CzechRepublic

Slovakia Romania Poland Slovenia

Highest inward FDI stock in CEE (%, 2015)

Key benefits:

• Partnership with investors is a national priority in Hungary

• Strategic partnership program giving fast access to the government

• Consistent economic

policy supporting business’ needs

HUNGARY

SMART. AMBITIOUS. COMPETITIVE.

SMART At the forefront of creating high added value jobs

IBM-PLI Global Location Trends 2017 • Hungary created the 5th highest added value jobs in the world in 2016 • Hungary ranked 9th in the world in job creation per inhabitants

IBM-PLI Global Location Trends 2016

• Hungary is first in CEE among destination countries by estimated jobs, and estimated jobs per million inhabitants

EY Attractiveness survey Europe 2016

• Hungary led the growth of the CEE region with 103% increase in the number of investment projects, driven by the automotive sector

fDi Intelligence, greenfield investment in 2015

• Hungary was ranked first in Europe in relative to the size of the country’s economy

• Hungary saw the largest increase in scores compared to last year’s results to reach the overall second place

SMART IBM Global Location Trends report 2017

SMART Main sectors

Automotive industry 4 OEMs and more than 700 suppliers Shared Services Centres More than 110 operating sites Information & Communication Technology On the verge of 5G Electronics industry EUR 17.4 billion production value Food industry 100% GMO free, quality raw materials Life sciences Tatabánya & Budapest on the top Medical technology 8 R&D centres around Hungary Logistics & Transportation Third highest road density in Europe Renewable energy 1.5x higher geothermal gradient than the world average

SMART Made in Hungary

Morgan Stanley Case Study

„In July 2006 based on Hungary’s excellent higher education and

the good quality professional local talent, the firm furthered its

presence in the region by opening the Business Services

and Technology Centre in Budapest to support the business

activities in North America, Europe and Asia.”

„In Budapest, we're making a difference in the world and having an excellent time doing it.”

2006

2017

Morgan Stanley established the Mathematical

Modeling Centre in Budapest.

In September 2017 more than 1.900 colleagues

In July 2006 opening the

Business Services and Technology

Centre.

The World's Largest Asset Manager has Opened an Innovation Centre in Budapest

”At BlackRock we are building something great in Budapest, our

new global technology and Innovation hub, where we want to

shape a culture in which challenge, development and innovation

happen every day.”

2018

2016

The new innovation centre will create more than 500 jobs in

Budapest.

BlackRock had chosen Budapest because of its: – education system, – quality of infrastructure, – security, quality of life, – the government’s

commitment to the enterprise.

HUNGARY


AMBITIOUS Moving up the value chain

Building on recent successes, the Hungarian economy steps up from the “Made in Hungary” age to the “Invented in Hungary” era to become an ideal research and development location in addition to being a manufacturing hub in Europe. Automotive industry E-mobility and self-driving Shared Services Centres Centres of excellence Information & Communication Technology On the verge of 5G Electronics industry E-mobility and Industry 4.0

AMBITIOUS Brands on board forming the innovation hub of CEE

• Technological centre for electric driveline manufacturing in Győr

• Budapest Development Centre is the second largest Bosch centre in Europe

• Innovation and technology centre in Budapest

• R&D centre for Central Europe

• One of its six global digital hubs established in Budapest

• Developing the 5G thinking network in Global Technology Centre in Budapest

• Budapest E/E competence centre employing 500 professionals

• Budapest testing centre for active ingredients produced by all units

HUNGARY


COMPETITIVE Favourable taxation environment

Reducing taxes year by year

9% flat rate corporate income tax from 2017

15% personal income tax

Continuously reduced social contribution tax

27% - 2016

22% - 2017

20% - 2018

Tax benefits favoring R&D

R&D expenses can be deducted from

tax base

Reduction of social tax in case of

negative tax base

Tax allowances for promoting labour mobility

VAT rates are from zero to 27%

27/18/5/0 %

COMPETITIVE Regional aid intensity map

Maximum available amount of regional incentives

COMPETITIVE New incentive schemes for advanced technologies

Significant changes from 2017 R&D cash subsidy

New incentive measure to support R&D activities

Max. 25% aid intensity Throughout Hungary, including

Budapest Technology-intensive investments

New CAPEX-based subsidy to promote capacity expansions and technology-intensive investments which do not result in the increase of the headcount

Before you make a decision, we offer you: One-stop-shop management consultancy

services

Tailor-made incentive offers and information

packages

Assistance with your incentive application

Location search, evaluation and site visits

Reference visits at companies already

established in Hungary

Meetings with specialised consultants

After you have chosen Hungary: We are open to your feedback and mediate

between government and businesses based

on your inputs

We support you further expansion and plans

HIPA Opening doors for your investment

Thank you for your attention!

Róbert Ésik President (+36 1) 872 6523 [email protected]

Panel I: Optimising Trading and Execution in CEE Equity Securities

• James Baugh, Head of Market Structure, Citi • Peter McStay, Co-Head of Emerging Markets- EMEA, Liquidnet • Salvador Rodriguez, Head of electronic and Program Trading, Instinet • Bartocz Świdziński, Head of Business Development, Erste Securities,

Polska SA Moderator: Scott Bradley, Head of Cash Sales, LSE and Turquoise

Coffee Break

Panel II: PostTrade Landscape in

CEE

• Tim Beckwith, Head of Sales, LCH Ltd

• Ryan Marsh, Director, Custody & Clearing Global Product

Development Manager, Citi

• Bogumil Kloc, Vice President, Investor Services Sales, Deutsche

Bank Polska SA

Moderator: Dr Robert Barnes, CEO, Turquoise

Closing Remarks

Dr Robert Barnes

CEO, Turquoise

Turquoise CEE Event 3 October 2017 · ‒ Inflation: Year-over-year to remain low into early 2018,...

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