Turning the Tide: Using Longitudinal Data to Understand the Flow of Children through Foster Care

CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley

Turning the Tide:Using Longitudinal Data to Understand

the Flow of Children through Foster Care

Daniel WebsterJoseph Magruder

University of California, Berkeley

Terry ShawUniversity of Maryland

The 12th National Child Welfare Data and Technology ConferenceBethesda, MD

June 2009

The Performance Indicators Project is funded by the California Department of Social Services and the Stuart Foundation


Outline

o Approaches to examining longitudinal data

o Limitations of these approaches

o Flow—an expanded perspective

o Application of flow across a seven-year span

o Conclusions and next steps


Approaches to Longitudinal Data

o How do we investigate children’s experience in the child welfare system?

• Point in time – counts of children on a day.

• Exits – counts of children leaving care.

• Entries – counts of children entering care.

• Ecological – counts of children in a year.


Limitations of Approaches

o These approaches give a limited view of children’s trajectory and often cyclical involvement with the foster care system. How long was the child in care? How many placements did the child have? Did the child’s placement level step down? How many episodes has the child had? Did the child reenter care?


Flow through the foster care system

o Flow—building upon the ecological data approach

o Fully-longitudinal data are necessary to answer these questions.

o The following slides look at children’s experience in the child welfare system from 1999 through the end of 2008. Looking at exits Reentries Re-exits and Re-reentries


Data Sourceo Based on quarterly extracts from California’s Child

Welfare Services/Case Management System (CWS/CMS)

o Extracts are configured into a longitudinal database as part of a collaboration between the California Department of Social Services and the Center for Social Services Research (CSSR) at UC Berkeley

o 1999-2001 child welfare-supervised careo Children 0-11 years old (on first day of year or at entry to care)

o Followed for 7 years in and out of care (data cut-off: 1/1/09)


102,136 Children1999

26,035

48

1,168240

77,077 Children2000

1999 In-care (74,398 children) and Entry population (27,738)Flow through

the foster care system



77,077 Children2000

24,405

+655

87

2,129121

54,112 Children2001





77,077 Children2000

54,112 Children2001

40,084 Children

2002

15,0

77

+1,1

79

2,232

73

69





77,077 Children2000

54,112 Children2001

2002 2,087

47

58

32,684 Children2003

40,084 Children

8,0

67

+1,4

31





77,077 Children2000

54,112 Children2001

200240,084 Children

5,6

40

+1,6

77

27,615 Children2004

69

32,684 Children2003

2,24

9

70





77,077 Children2000

54,112 Children2001

200240,084 Children

2004

32,684 Children2003

24,506 Children2005

27,615 Children

3,515

+1,821

7077

2,234





77,077 Children2000

54,112 Children2001

200240,084 Children

2004

32,684 Children2003

27,615 Children

3,670 +2,142

20,821 Children2006

24,506 Children2005

702,133

76







77,077 Children2000

54,112 Children2001

200240,084 Children

2004

32,684 Children2003

27,615 Children

3,455 +2,106 2006

24,506 Children2005

66

1,899 84

20,821 Children

17,141 Children

(16.8%of

original)





77,077 Children2000

54,112 Children2001

200240,084 Children

2004

32,684 Children2003

27,615 Children

2006

24,506 Children2005

20,821 Children

17,141 Children

(16.8%of

original)•17,141 children in care on 12/31/2006 (16.8% of the original)

•11,991 Children never exited from care (11.7% of original – 70.0% of children in care on 12/31/2006)


98,135 Children2000



67,630 Children2001

48,238 Children2002

200336,446 Children

2005

28,943 Children2004

24,890 Children

2007

22,363 Children2006

19,152 Children

15,397 Children

(15.7%of

original)•15,397 children in care on 12/31/2007 (15.7% of the original)

•10,653 Children never exited from care (10.9% of original - 69.2% of children in care on 12/31/2007)


89,227 Children2001



62,244 Children2002

44,518 Children2003

200431,951 Children

2006

25,617 Children2005

22,145 Children

2008

20,124 Children2007

16,968 Children

13,355 Children (14.97%

of original)•13,355 children in care on 12/31/2008

(14.97% of the original)

•9,227 Children never exited from care (10.3% of original - 69.1% of children in care on 12/31/2008)


1999-2001 Followed for 7 Years

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

1999 2000 2001

%

Percent Not Exiting in 7 Years

Total in care during yr

Stock (in care Jan.1)

Entries during yr

(n=11,991) (n=10,653) (n=9,227)



0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

1999 2000 2001

%

Percent Not Exiting in 7 Years out of All Entering or In-Care During Year

Total

(n=11,991) (n=10,653) (n=9,227)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

1999 2000 2001

%

Percent Not Exiting in 7 Years out of All Entering or In-Care During Yearby Ethnic Group

Black

White

Hispanic

Asian

Native Am.

Total

(n=11,991) (n=10,653) (n=9,227)



0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

1999 2000 2001

%

Percent Not Exiting in 7 Years out of All Entering or In-Care During Year

Total

(n=11,991) (n=10,653) (n=9,227)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

1999 2000 2001

%

Percent Not Exiting in 7 Years out of All Entering or In-Care During Yearby Age Group

Total

11yr

9-10yr

6-8yr

3-5yr

1-2yr

<1yr

(n=11,991) (n=10,653) (n=9,227)



51.7% 49.8% 48.0%

18.9% 18.9% 19.4%

27.0% 28.6% 29.8%

1.2% 1.4% 1.6%1.2% 1.3% 1.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1999-2001 Children Never Exiting by Ethnic Group

Native Am.

Asian

Hispanic

White

Black

1999(n=11,991)

2000(n=10,653)

2001(n=9,227)

2.3% 2.7% 3.6%

26.1% 28.1% 29.4%

40.3%41.1% 41.2%

22.0% 20.1% 18.6%

6.7% 5.8% 5.2%2.7% 2.2% 2.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1999-2001 Children Never Exiting in 7 Years by Age Group

<1yr

1-2yr

3-5yr

6-8yr

9-10yr

11yr

1999(n=11,991)

2000(n=10,653)

2001(n=9,227)


2001 Children Not Exiting in 7 Years by Age & Ethnic Group

2.3 1.1 2.3 1.4 3.55.6 3.4 5.8 3.4

5.3

19.415.1

19.619.6

18.4

40.143.4

41.441.9

43.0

28.2 35.0 27.6 31.8 28.1

4.5 2.1 3.4 2.0 1.8

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%(n=9,227*)

11yr

9-10yr

6-8yr

3-5yr

1-2yr

<1yr

Black(n=4,426)

Hispanic(n=2,749)

Asian(n=148)

White(n=1,788)

Native Am.(n=114)

*2 children with missing ethnicity not included.


Conclusions• Children already in care at start of a period (the ‘stock’) were

much less likely to ever exit over a span of 7 years than children entering during the period.

• There appears to be a slight decrease in the never-exit proportion from 1999 to 2001, which holds for almost all ethnic groups.

• Nonetheless, it is quite notable that one out of ten children already in or entering care in 2001 never exited foster care over a span of 7 years.

• African Americans and young school-aged children (6-10 year olds) had the highest proportions for never exiting.


Next Steps• Examination of flow by county or region (to uncover potential

practices worth replicating via PQCR)

• Application of multivariate model on likelihood of never exiting (using demographic, placement constellation, service history covariates)

• In addition to ‘non-exiters,’ analysis of children with multiple exits and reentries (‘recyclers’).

• As time passes, examination of flow with more follow-up time, and for post CFSR years will be instructive.


Daniel [email protected]

510.290.6779

Joseph [email protected]

510.643.2585

Terry [email protected]

410.706.3811

Questions

mailto:[email protected]

Turning the Tide: Using Longitudinal Data to Understand the Flow of Children through Foster Care

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