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1-) TGB GRAIN PURCHASES AND PRICES

A- GRAIN

According to TurkStat’s data, in our country, 19.674 thousand tons of wheat, 7.250 thousand tons of

barley, 366 thousand tons of rye, 204 thousand tons of oat and 93 thousand tons of triticale were produced in

2010. In 2011, 21.800 thousand tons of wheat, 7.600 thousand tons of barley, 366 thousand tons of rye, 218

thousand tons of oat and 104 thousand tons of triticale have been produced. While total production of the

mentioned products was 27.587 thousand tons in 2010, it has been 30.097 thousand tons in 2011 with an

increase of 9,1 %.

2012 period harvest has begun by 10th May 2012, markets have been monitored closely and, with

beginning of the harvest, purchases by undertaking have begun on 31st May 2012. On 18th June 2012, wheat

intervention purchase prices have been announced as given in the below table and the wheat purchases have

begun as of 19th June 2012. Until 1st July 2012, 153.638 tons of wheat have been purchased by cash. In

addition, 6.695 tons of wheat have been purchased as consignee and they have been stored. For barley, rye,

triticale and oat, no intervention purchase price has been announced and purchases by undertaking are in

progress.

2012 PERIOD TGB INTERVENTION PURCHASE PRICES (TL/TON)

Table:1

B- MAIZE

Maize production, which was 4,31 million tons in 2010, has been 4,2 million tons in 2011 with a 2,6 %

decrease. (TÜİK)

Information about TGB 2011 purchases;

2011 maize harvest began on 15th August 2011. Because the market prices are in favour of the

producers at 600-650 TL/Ton level, it wasn’t seen necessary to announce an intervention purchase price.

However, on the purpose of meeting the storage need of the market, making 30 % advance payment to the

demanding producers and providing the oppurtunity of using credit with letter of commitment to all of the

NUMBER: 2012/7 GRAIN NEWSLETTER 17.07.2012

TYPE INTERVENTION PURCHASE PRICE

DURUM WHEAT

DURUM WHEAT 705

LOW QUALITY DURUM WHEAT 575

MILLING WHEAT

ANATOLIAN WHITE AND RED HARD WHEAT 665

OTHER RED WHITE WHEAT 635

FEED WHEAT 555

TURKISH GRAIN BOARD

GENERAL DIRECTORATE

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sector, as of 19th August 2011 purchases as consignee started at the intervention purchase price of the

previous year.

With the beginning of the 2nd crop maize harvest, because of the decreasing trend of the market

prices at 490-539 TL/Ton level, TGB announced the intervention purchase price as 540 TL/ton on 17th

November 2011 to protect the producers. Within this context, by 30th June 2012, 47.632 tons have been

purchased by cash.

25.7 million Turkish Liras, value of the purchased maize, have been transfered to accounts of the

producers totally. Purchases are in progress.

Purchases as consignee have been completed by 31st December 2011 and 128.177 tons of maize have

been purchased as consignee. Of the maize purchased as consignee, 127.782 tons have been returned, 395

tons have been turned into purchase by cash.

Information about 2012 maize plantings in Turkey;

1st crop and 2nd crop maize plantings have been completed and the crop progress is good.

By 2nd July 2012, while differing among the regions, the market price of 14 % moisture maize is at

570 – 620 TL/ton range.

C- PADDY

While paddy production was 860 thousand tons in 2010, it has been 900 thousand tons in 2011, with

an increase of around 4,7 % compared to previous year (TÜİK). Rice equivalent of Turkish paddy production is

about 540 thousand tons. Our country’s annual rice consumption is about 600 thousand tons.

Information about TGB 2011 purchases;

2011 paddy harvest started as of 13th September 2011. TGB did not see it necessary to announce

paddy intervention purchase prices because with beginning of the harvest, the market prices of 60 % yield

Osmancık type, at 1,050 – 1,100 TL/ton range, developed in favor of the producers. However, until it would be

seen necessary to announce intervention purchase price, on the purpose of meeting the storage need of the

market, making 30 % advance payment to the demanding producers and providing the oppurtunity of using

credit with letter of commitment to all of the sector, on 28th September 2011 TGB started the purchases as

consignee at the prices which were applied at purchases as consignee in the previous year.

As the paddy market prices fell to 1,000 – 1,040 TL/ton levels by the completion of the harvest, TGB

has started intervention purchases on 4th November 2011 to protect paddy production level and the producers.

Paddy intervention purchase prices applied to product types in 2011 purchase period are listed in below

table.

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GROUP TYPE PURCHASE

CODE

PRICE

(TL/TON)

LONG GRAIN

BALDO 3570 1.200

ROCCA 3560

1.060

OSMANCIK-97, DRAGO, KORAL, RİBE, SÜREK-95,

NEĞİŞ, GÖNEN, BEŞER, KIRKPINAR, EDİRNE,

HALİLBEY, ECE, DURAĞAN, KIZILTAN, KARADENİZ,

TUNCA, GALA, OTHER LONG GRAIN PADDY

3550

MIDDLE GRAIN

VENERİA 3540

950 ARCO, CALROSE, KARACADAĞ, MARATELLİ,

AKÇELTİK, ŞUMNU, SARIÇELTİK, SERHAT-92,

KIZILIRMAK, OTHER MIDDLE GRAIN PADDY

3530

SHORT GRAIN KRASNODARSKY-421 3520

870 MISIR PADDY AND OTHER SHORT GRAIN PADDY 3510

By 30th June 2012, 12.849 tons have been purchased by cash and 3.661 tons have been purchased as

consignee.

Of 3.661 tons of paddy purchased as consignee, 3.395 tons have been returned and 266 tons have

been turned into purchase by cash.

The value of the purchased 12.849 tons of paddy is 12,4 million Turkish Liras and it has been

transfered to bank accounts of the producers totally.

Information about 2012 paddy plantings in Turkey;

While differing among the regions, paddy plantings in our country generally begin in the second half of

April and it is completed at the end of May.

However, because it has been cold in this year, plantings begun in the first days of May and they have

been completed by the second week of June.

There’s no problem at the crop progress in our country.

By 2nd July 2012, while differing among the regions, the market price of 60 % yield Osmancık paddy

is at 1.050 – 1.100 TL/ton range and market price of Baldo paddy is at 1.350 – 1.450 TL/ton range.

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2-) FORMS, TERMS AND PRICES OF TGB INTERNAL SALES AND STOCK EXCHANGE PRICES

A-) FORMS AND TERMS OF INTERNAL SALES

- Our Sales Against Cash Price:

In our sales against cash price; the commodity prices deposited by the demanders are taken into TGB

“Received Order Advances” accounts. In case of any changes in TGB prices or fees, these differences are

reflected to undelivered products exactly. In case the purchaser desists from the purchase, balance product

price is returned to the purchaser. Furthermore in case the sales are terminated by TGB for any reason during

delivery, the prices of undelivered products are returned to the purchasers upon request or delivery continues

at prevailing price, fee and terms upon re-opening of the sales.

Depositing of the product price into TGB bank account does not mean that sale is accepted.

Furthermore depositing the amount into bank account without information of the Office does not mean of a

contractual or implied acceptance.

By 1st June 2012 our sales (except the rice sales) have been completed.

All the rice in our stocks is open to the sale against cash price without any discrimination between

persons and/or companies.

B) INTERNAL SALES PRICES

Our rice sales prices are given in below Table: 3

RICE SALES PRICES

TYPE CODE NO PACKED 5 KG (¨)

PACKED 2 KG (¨)

PACKED 1 KG (¨)

Import Medium Grain Rice (Egypt) 3697 8.00 3.20 1.60

Other Long Grain (Osmancık) 3651 11.50 4.60 2.30

Long Grain (Baldo) 3671 15.00 6.00 3.00

NOTE: Including packing costs, manipulation, additional transportation costs and VAT, excluding other costs.

Table:3

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C) STOCK EXCHANGE VOLUMES AND PRICES

The wheat, barley, rye and oats, which are traded at exchange, are followed from Eskisehir, Konya, Polatlı,

Corum, Bandırma and Edirne stock exchanges by TGB, whereas corn is followed from Adana stock exchange on

daily basis. Average prices of June are given in below Table: 4.

COMPARISON OF STOCK EXCHANGE PRICES

PRODUCT NAME

STOCK EXCHANGES TGB

SALES PRICE

ESKİŞEHİR KONYA POLATLI ÇORUM EDİRNE ADANA BANDIRMA TL/Ton

Price TL/Ton

Trade qty.

(Ton)

Price TL/Ton

Trade qty.

(Ton)

Fiyat TL/Ton

Trade qty.

(Ton)

Price TL/Ton

Trade qty.

(Ton)

Price TL/Ton

Trade qty.

(Ton)

Price TL/Ton

Trade qty.

(Ton)

Price TL/Ton

Trade qty.

(Ton) June

DURUM WHEAT

- - 648 2.012 - - 567 14 - - - - - - -

ANATOLIAN RED HARD

MILLING WHEAT

598 98 652 683 668 2.123 - - - - - - - - -

OTHER WHITE MILLING WHEAT

572 210 608 370 - - - - - - - - 596 1.820 -

OTHER RED MILLING WHEAT

595 820 630 692 624 1.021 - - 622 1.805 - - - - -

BARLEY 572 744 562 1.673 562 1.032 540 39 - - - - - - -

RYE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

OATS 560 11 570 36 550 43 - - - - - - - - -

CORN - - - - - - - - - - 576 23.200 - - -

RICE* 1.780 2.300

ROUGH RICE* 1.081 -

* Rice and rough rice prices belong to Osmancık type and are average of wholesale prices in free market.

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3-) WORLD CROP MARKETS ( in accordance with the montly report of International Grain Council – IGC

dated 02.07.2012 and number 473.)

PRODUCTION

WHEAT

In spite of a small increase in harvested area, an anticipated fall in average yields from the previous

season’s record is forecast to cut the 2012/13 world wheat crop by 4%, to 665m. tons. This is 6m. tons lower

than last month’s forecast, including reduced projections for Russia, Ukraine, Argentina and Australia, only

partly offset by improved prospects in Canada, the US, China and Algeria.

Widespread rains in the EU aided crop development in the past month, notably in western and

northern areas, but Spain and parts of central Europe remained overly dry. Improved crop prospects in

Bulgaria, France, Italy and Sweden are partly countered by downward revisions in Poland, Romania and Spain,

and the production forecast is 0.9m tons higher than last month, at 132.1m. (137.6m.), including 124.5m.

(129.4m.) of common wheat. Unfavourable growing conditions for much of this season are reflected in the

lowest harvested area in five years, at 25.0m. ha (26.0m.).

In Kazakhstan, June rains have alleviated the drought conditions in the major northern growing areas,

boosting spring crop development. Nevertheless, the area is stil projected 2% lower than last year, at 13.5m.

ha., and with yields expected to be close to average, production is forecast to fall by one-third from last year’s

record, to 15.0m. tons. In western Russia, hot and dry weather continued to stress crops in the Volga District

and southern regions, but conditions in central and northern areas remained favourable. Rains brought some

relief to spring wheat areas east of the Urals. Because of lower than expected spring wheat plantings, especially

in western Siberia, the total harvested area is reduced by 1.2m. ha. from the last report, to 25.3m. (24.9m.).

This, together with lower yields because of dryness in the south, is reflected in a 6.0m. tons cut in the

production forecast, to 49.0m. (56.2m.).

In Ukraine, crops in south-central and eastern regions continued to suffer from dry and hot weather,

while heavy rains boosted soil moisture across western areas. Adverse autumn weather and an early spring are

expected to reduce the harvested area by one-third, to 4.8m. ha. (6.7m.), and with yields forecast to decline,

production is placed at a nine-year low of 13.0m. tons (22.3m.).

Cool and showery weather across Canada’s western Prairies slowed the final stages of wheat sowing.

Nevertheless, planted area is forecast to rise by 11%, to 9.6m. ha., with the biggest increase in durum, up by

17%, reflecting low stocks and better sowing conditions than last year in Saskatchewan. With other spring

wheat area projected to increase by 8%, and assuming both normal growing conditions and average yields,

production is forecast at 26.5m. tons (25.3m.), 0.5m. higher than last month.

In the US, rains were favourable in several droughtaffected areas, including key production regions of

the central and southern Plains and parts of the Midwest. The harvest made rapid progress, reaching the half-

way point by the middle of June. Total wheat plantings are officially estimated to be 3% higher than last year,

at 22.7m. ha., including 16.9m. (16.4m.) of winter wheat. The durum area is placed at 0.9m. ha., a 61% rise,

mainly in North Dakota, where the area is expected to have doubled from the previous year’s lower than

normal level. Based on average abandonment and taking into account improved yield prospects for both winter

and spring sown crops, the production forecast is raised by 1.5m. tons, to 60.5m. (54.4m.). Drier weather

helped planting to accelerate in Argentina, with about 25% completed by mid-June. However, overly dry

conditions in some areas contributed to lower planting expectations than before, now placed 16% below the

previous year, at 3.8m. ha., also reflecting competition for area from more profitable crops. The crop forecast is

trimmed by 1.0m. tons, to 11.5m. (13.4m.).

In China, hot and dry weather in the Yangtze Valley and the North China Plain was beneficial for crop

maturation and aided harvesting, while rains in north-eastern regions improved conditions for spring wheat.

With the total area and yields expected to be similar to last year, production is forecast at 117.0m. tons

(117.9m.), up 1.0m. from previously. In India, with harvesting completed, production is estimated at a record

90.0m. tons (86.9m.), owing to the largest-ever area of 29.6m. ha. (29.4m.).

Warm and dry weather accelerated harvesting in Iran and Syria, with production forecast at 14.0m.

tons (13.5m.) and 3.7m. (3.9m.), respectively. After several weeks of wet weather, warm and dry conditions

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were favourable for crop maturation and early harvesting in Turkey’s major-producing area of the Anatolian

Plateau. The wheat area is forecast 6% higher, at 8.2m. ha., and assuming average yields, production is

projected at 18.5m. tons (18.8m.), unchanged from previously. In North Africa, larger crops are being

harvested in Algeria and Tunisia, at 4.0m. tons (2.8m.) and 1.6m. tons (1.3m.), respectively. In contrast,

drought has slashed yield prospects in Morocco, with production projected to fall by some 40%, to 3.5m. tons.

In Australia, planting was aided by recent rains, helping to relieve the drought for winter crops in Western

Australia and replenish soil moisture in the southeast. However, the dry start to the season cuts the

area forecast by 0.3m. ha. from before, to 13.4m. Weaker anticipated prices contribute to the 5% fall in

projected area compared with last year. Together with a droughtrelated drop in yields, production is forecast to

drop by 19% from last year’s record, to 24.0m. tons (29.5m.). Planting is underway in South Africa, aided by

ample moisture supplies. Production is forecast marginally lower than last year, at 1.9m. tons (2.0m.), due to a

slight decline in area.

MAIZE

Given increased plantings, particularly in North America and China, and higher yields on average,

2012/13 world maize production is expected to be a record 917m. tons (868m.). The global area is forecast at

a record of 171.1m. ha. (168.3m.), while average yields are expected to increase to 5.4 tons/ha. (5.2

tons). The main gains are projected in the US, Argentina and China.

In the US, drought conditions with above-average temperatures continued to spread across most of

the major corn-producing regions of the country in the southern and eastern Corn Belt, especially in southern

Illinois and Indiana, stressing the crop as it enters the sensitive reproductive stage of development. Excessive

heat was recently reported across parts of Kansas, Missouri, Indiana and Ohio. This is reflected in the crop

progress reports, where the percentage of the crop in good/excellent condition declined to 56% (68%) as at 24

June, compared to 72% at the beginning of the month.

The planted area is officially placed at 39.0m. ha. (37.2m.), up 4.9% from last year and the highest

since 1937, responding to higher prices, and the harvested area is forecast at about 36.1m. ha., 6.2% higher

than last year. However, less than favourable weather conditions have reduced yield prospects. This

month, the forecast yield has been reduced to 9.7 tons/ha., below the 10-year trend, and broadly in line

with the five- year average. The production forecast has consequently been trimmed by 5.0m. tons. Output is

still expected to reach a record 350.0m. tons, 12% higher than in 2011/12, but the risks are to the downside.

In Canada, warm weather with showers inOntario, the major-producing province, has benefited crop

development. Plantings are expected to increase by 21% to a record 1.5m. ha. and the production forecast has

been increased by 0.5m. tons, to 12.5m. (10.7m.).

Widespread rains and seasonable temperatures have recently improved crop prospects across much of

the EU. Taking into account replanting of damaged winter grains, the maize area is projected to increase by

some 7%, to about 9.5m. ha., well above the five-year average of 8.5m. However, yields are expected to

return to average from the previous year’s high levels and production is forecast to increase only marginally, to

65.9m. tons (65.2m.), up 0.5m. from last month, the second-largest on record. Farmers in Ukraine planted

31% more maize this year, estimated at 4.6m. ha. (3.5m.), reflecting solid export demand and replanting of

frost-damaged winter grains. With yields expected to be lower than last year’s, but still above average,

production is forecast at a record 24.0m. tons (22.8m.).

In China, after abundant rains in May, hot and dry weather in the Yangtze Valley and the North China

Plain was beneficial for crop maturation. Recent rainfall has improved growing conditions in north-eastern

regions, although more rain is needed in parts of the North China Plain to replenish irrigation reservoirs. With

more farmers switching away from soyabeans, the maize area forecast is increased by 0.4m. ha., to 34.8m.

(33.4m.), the highest ever. Assuming slightly above average yields, the crop projection has been increased by

6.0m. tons, to a record 195.0m. (191.8m.).

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In the southern hemisphere, where the main planting season will start in September, farmers in

Argentina are expected to further increase plantings, and assuming average yields, recovering from the 15-

year low of 2011/12, production is forecast at a record 25.0m. tons (20.0m.). Provided weather patterns are

normal, production in South Africa is forecast to rebound to 12.5m. tons (11.4m.), based on higher yields.

BARLEY

The 2012/13 global barley output forecast has been reduced by 3.2m. tons this month, to 135.0m.

(134.4m.), following crop downgrades in Russia, Ukraine and Australia, which were only partly offset by upward

revisions for the EU and Argentina. This is still a 0.5% year-on-year increase in production as plantings have

expanded. The global harvested area is forecast up 8%, at 53.7m. ha. (49.7m.), in line with the five-year

average, with increased area in the EU, the CIS, North America and Argentina.

Widespread rains and warm weather across most of the EU have benefited spring crop development.

Consequently, frost-related winter barley losses, notably in France, Germany and Poland, have been more than

compensated by increased planting of spring varieties. The total EU barley area is now estimated to be up 4%

year-on-year at 12.4m. ha. (11.9m.), including 8.1m. (7.2m.) of spring barley. The EU production forecast is

also lifted by 0.6m. tons from last month, to 53.0m. (51.7m.), largely reflecting better prospects in France.

However, production remains below-average for the third consecutive year due to relatively low yields.

In Russia, where the crop is predominantly spring-sown, planting is expected to expand by nearly 20%, to

about 9.2m.ha., to satisfy growing domestic feed requirements. Rainfall has improved soil moisture across

western Siberia, but southern regions in western parts continued to experience warmer than average weather.

The production forecast incorporates lower yield prospects, and is reduced by 1.0m. tons, to 15.5m.

(16.9m.). In Ukraine, severe drought conditions in southern growing areas have affected the main spring crop

and, despite an increase in area to 4.0m. ha. (3.7m.), production is now expected to be broadly unchanged

year-on-year at 9.0m. tons (9.1m.), 2.0m. lower than forecast in May.

Canada’s barley plantings are expected to rise by 23%, to about 3.2m. ha., owing to more favourable

planting conditions and attractive prices. Assuming average abandonment and yields, production is projected

at 9.0m. tons, 15% higher than in 2011/12. Farmers in the US have also increased barley plantings by over

40%, to 1.5m. ha. (1.0m.) due to better sowing conditions in North Dakota, a key producing state.

Assuming average yields, production is forecast to be up 38% in 2012/13, at 4.7m. tons. Argentina’s output is

forecast to increase by 27%, to 5.2m. tons, following an expansion in area to 1.4m. ha. (1.1m.) in response to

growing demand. In contrast, Australia’s barley area is expected to decrease slightly, to 3.9m. ha. (4.0m.),

in favour of more profitable canola, with production down 13%, at 7.5m. tons, a 0.7m. reduction from the May

forecast.

CONSUMPTION

WHEAT

The forecast for world wheat consumption in 2012/13 is up by 1m. tons from last month, to 682m.,

but still 7m. under the estimate for the year before. While global food and industrial uses are expected to

increase, feed demand is forecast to decline from the past year’s record, curtailed by larger maize

availabilities. Nevertheless, feed use is placed 2.6m. tons higher than previously, at 131.4m. (143.1m.),

mainly due to an upward revision for China, to 23.5m. (22.5m.).

MAIZE

Driven by projected strong growth in feed demand, world maize consumption in 2012/13 is forecast to

increase by 39m. tons, to 910m. This month’s forecast is 8m. tons higher than before, mainly due to revised

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forecasts for China, but also increased consumption projections for the EU and Brazil. Although the US crop

may not reach previously projected levels, supplies are expected to be larger than in 2011/12 and, with good

harvests expected in Ukraine and Russia, more comfortable world exportable availabilities are likely to pressure

prices, with some compound feed producers likely to switch back into maize from wheat.

Overall feed use is forecast at 520m. tons (489m.), up 5m. from last month. Underpinned by rising

demand for animal proteins, feed maize use in China is forecast to increase to 132m. tons (126m.). The

ongoing industrialisation of China’s livestock industry will also boost demand for maize and other energy feeds.

After recent very strong growth, demand for feed-grade wheat may increase at a relatively slower pace, which

could also promote maize use. In the EU, relatively cheaper prices could result in maize feed demand rising to

52.4m. tons, up 1.6m. from 2011/12. US feed/residual use is also forecast to be sharply higher, at 130.0m.

tons (115.6m.). Demand from poultry and pig producers is likely to be firmer, and the “residual” element,

which includes unspecified uses and waste, as well as any inaccuracies of other components of the balance

sheet, also tends to rise with larger supply. Global industrial consumption is forecast at a record 256m. tons

(250m.). Due to increased forecasts for starch production in China and Brazil, as well as use for fuel ethanol in

the EU, the projection is up almost 3m. tons compared to late May. Given projections for a drop in gasoline

consumption and uncertain export prospects, maize used for the production of fuel ethanol in the US is

forecast to dip to 127.0m. tons (128.3m.).

BARLEY

World barley consumption in 2012/13 is expected to fall slightly to 133.8m. tons (135.6m.),

reflecting reduced availability in the Black Sea region and Australia, as well as a fall in demand for feed barley.

Global feed use is seen lower, at 88.0m. tons (90.2m.), with a notable decline in Saudi Arabia due to

substitution with other feed crops. In contrast, world industrial demand is forecast to grow by 0.7%, to 29.1m.

tons due to increased demand in China, including the brewing industry.

STOCKS

WHEAT

This month’s increase in forecast global use, together with lower beginning stocks and reduced

production expectations, lead to a 9m. tons cut in the world wheat carryover projection for the end of 2012/13,

to a four- year low of 182m. This is down by 17m. tons compared with the estimate for the year before, mainly

reflecting a drop in the eight major exporters. Their combined stocks are forecast to fall by 12.3m. tons, to

58.3m., the lowest in five years. The figure is 4.1m. tons lower than last month, including downward

adjustments for Australia and Kazakhstan, where smaller harvests will likely see a contraction from high

opening inventories. A reduced production forecast in Russia is only partly offset by lower domestic use and

exports. Given a tighter outlook for Black Sea availability, higher anticipated export demand contributes to

slightly lower forecasts for the US, Canada and the EU.

MAIZE

While cumulative carryover stocks at the end of 2012/13 (respective marketing years) are forecast to

increase for the first time in four years, to 137m. tons (129m.), the estimate is down by 4m. tons compared to

last month. Forecast 2012/13 carryovers for the US and Brazil have both been reduced, by 5.0m. tons and

1.5m., respectively, and the projection for the four major exporters (Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine and the

US) is 6.6m. lower, at 46.5m. (38.9m.). While the still record crop is forecast to lift end-of-season US

inventories to 31.8m. tons, up 47% from the very low level in 2011/12, the stocks to disappearance ratio

(including exports) of 9% would still lag the 11% five-year average.

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BARLEY

As a result of marginally higher production and a small decline in consumption, carryover stocks are

expected to rise to 28.6m. tons at the end of 2012/13, 4.4% higher year-on-year. However, the world market

will still remain relatively tight, with stocks below the five-year average of 31.1m. tons. Given higher output,

closing stocks will likely rise in the EU, the US and Argentina, but will fall in Ukraine and Australia where output

is expected to decline.

TRADE

WHEAT

The forecast for world wheat trade in 2012/13 is slightly lower than last month, at 134.6m. tons,

and sharply below the previous year’s estimated record of 143.5m. Most of the fall from last year is due to

smaller anticipated purchases of feed wheat, although at a projected 13.1m. tons (18.0m.), trade is placed

1.8m. higher than previously and well above the longer term average of around 7m. While greater availability

of maize is expected to limit imports of wheat for feed, favourable prices may prompt buyers in some countries

to maintain purchases at higher than normal levels. The increase in the projection of feed wheat trade is

outweighed by lower than previously forecast milling wheat shipments, including to North Africa. Given large

carryover stocks and a bigger domestic harvest, the forecast of imports by Egypt is reduced by 0.7m. tons, to

10.1m. (10.8m.). Better than expected harvest results in Algeria cut the import forecast by 0.7m. tons, to

5.1m. (6.2m.).

Export surpluses in the Black Sea region are not expected to be as high in 2012/13, including a notable

decline in Russia. Due to the deteriorating production outlook, the country’s exports are placed 5.0m. tons

lower than last month, at 12.0m. (21.5m.). Combined shipments by Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine are

forecast at 25.0m. tons (36.5m.), representing 19% of projected global trade, compared with an estimated

25% in 2011/12. Due to reduced Black Sea competition, exports by the EU are raised by 2.1m. tons from

before, to 18.1m., the same as last year. This is also expected to strengthen demand for North American

supplies; the forecast for US exports (July/June) is increased by 1.0m. tons from before, to 32.0m. (27.5m.),

while the projection for Canada is lifted by 0.6m., to 18.6m. (18.3m.). Even though Australia’s harvest is

revised lower, large carryover stocks will help to limit any fall in exports, forecast at 21.5m. tons (22.5m.).

MAIZE

Solid feed demand is forecast to lift global trade to new record highs in 2012/13 (July/June), with most

major importers expected to increase purchases. At 102.7m. tons, trade is forecast to be almost 10% higher

than in 2011/12 and 12% above the previous five-year average. The country forecasts are largely unchanged

from last month, except for the EU, where expected imports are placed 1.0m. tons higher, at 7.0m. (4.8m.).

Demand from feed and ethanol producers is expected to be firm and, with good supplies of

competitively priced maize from Ukraine, Russia and Serbia, imports are likely to increase. Assuming domestic

prices remain high relative to third-country imports, purchases by China are expected at 7.0m. tons (4.0m.).

US marketing year shipments in 2012/13 (September/August) are forecast to increase to 47.0m. tons

(41.9m.). Due to strong export competition from Ukraine and South America, the US export share is expected

to increase only slightly, to around 46%, down from an average 54% in the past five years. Ukraine has

quickly become a major exporter of maize, with recent shipments surpassing combined exports of wheat and

barley. Another large crop later this year should enable October/September shipments to be maintained at

14.0m. t.

11

BARLEY

World feed and malting barley trade is forecast to decline to 17.5m. tons (19.3m.) in 2012/13, due to

lower demand for feed barley in Saudi Arabia and, given increased spring production, a decline in EU malting

barley imports. Lower export availability from Australia is expected to be offset somewhat by increased

production and exports from Argentina. Due to lower domestic output in Morocco, imports are expected to be

higher at 0.6m. tons (0.5m.). A strong harvest in Algeria should result in a sharp reduction in imports in

2012/13, to a forecast 0.3m. tons (0.7m.), although firm consumption growth will keep volumes above

historical levels. Despite the forecast increase in Canada’s crop, exports are not expected to rise, as

competition from Argentina will limit export potential, while tight supplies will limit export sales from the EU.

WORLD GRAIN PRICES ON 17/07/2012

PRODUCT CODE PRICE US$/Ton

USA 2HRW 371,00

FRANCE BREAD WHEAT 327,90

ARGENTINA BREAD -

USA 2SRW 339,50

CANADA DURUM 2WAD -

FRANCE DURUM 347,04

FRANCE BARLEY 304,90

RUSSIA BARLEY 305,00

USA CORN (3YC) 346,30

USA LONG GRAIN RICE 574,00

(*) Selling rate of Central Bank on 16/07/2012 : 1,8184 (**) REFERENCE: REUTERS (***) Russian Barley price is according to IGC Report dated 16.07.2012 (****) USA Long Grain Rice price is according to IGC Report dated 10.07.2012 (*****) France Durum price is according to FRANCE AGRIMER dated 16.07.2012

Table: 5

WORLD WHEAT PRODUCTION, TRADE, CONSUMPTION AND STOCK VALUES (MILLION TONS)

WHEAT 2008/09 2009/2010 2010/11

2011/12 ESTIMATE

2012/13 FORECAST

PRODUCTION 685 679 653 695 665

TRADE 137 128 126 144 135

CONSUMPTION 645 653 658 689 682

STOCK 173 199 194 199 182

*REFERENCE: IGC JUNE 2012 Table: 6

WORLD MAIZE PRODUCTION, TRADE, CONSUMPTION AND STOCK VALUES (MILLION TONS)

MAIZE 2008/09 2009/2010 2010/11

2011/12 ESTIMATE

2012/13 FORECAST

PRODUCTION 800 820 829 868 917

TRADE 84 86 93 94 103

CONSUMPTION 784 821 844 871 910

STOCK 150 149 133 129 137

*REFERENCE: IGC JUNE 2012 Table: 7

12

WORLD GRAIN PRODUCTION (2012/13 FORECAST MILLION TONS)

COUNTRY NAME WHEAT BARLEY MAIZE

EUROPE (27 COUNTRIES) 132,1 53,0 65,9

CHINA 117,0 2,6 195,0

INDIA 90,0 1,6 22,0

USA 60,5 4,7 350,0

RUSSIA 49,0 16,5 -

CANADA 26,5 9,0 12,5

AUSTRALIA 24,0 7,5 0,4

TURKEY 18,5 6,0 3,8

UKRAINE 13,0 9,0 24,0

ARGENTINA 11,5 5,2 25,0

KAZAKHISTAN 15,0 2,1 -

WORLD TOTAL 665,1 135,0 917,2

*REFERENCE: IGC JUNE 2012 Table: 8

PRODUCTION STATUS OF WORLD WHEAT PRODUCERS (MILLION TONS)

WHEAT PRODUCER COUNTRIES

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

ESTIMATE 2012/13

FORECAST

2012 RATIO IN WORLD

PRODUCTION PER

FORECASTED PRODUCTION

VALUES %

FAR EAST 227,3 227,3 236,1 238,1 35,8

CHINA 115,1 115,2 117,9 117,0 17,6

INDIA 80,7 80,8 86,9 90,0 13,5

EUROPE 143,0 140,6 142,1 136,4 20,5

EU-27 138,3 136,8 137,6 132,1 19,9

FRANCE 38,3 38,1 36,1 37,2 5,6

GERMANY 25,2 24,0 23,0 22,7 3,4

ENGLAND 14,1 14,9 15,3 15,6 2,3

ROMANIA 5,2 6,0 7,0 5,3 0,8

HUNGARY 4,4 3,8 4,1 4,0 0,6

C.I.S 113,6 81,1 115,0 91,4 13,7

RUSSIA 61,7 41,5 56,2 49,0 7,4

UKRAINE 20,9 16,8 22,3 13,0 2,0

KAZAKHISTAN 16,5 9,6 22,7 15,0 2,3

USA 60,4 60,1 54,4 60,5 9,1

CANADA 26,8 23,2 25,3 26,5 4,0

AUSTRALIA 21,8 27,9 29,5 24,0 3,6

PAKISTAN 24,0 23,9 24,2 23,5 3,5

TURKEY 18,5 17,5 18,8 18,5 2,8

ARGENTINE 9,0 15,8 13,4 11,5 1,7

SYRIA 4,0 3,6 3,9 3,7 0,6

WORLD 679,0 653,1 694,7 665,1 100,0

*REFERENCE: IGC JUNE 2012

Table: 9