Turkey’s World in the Next Decade

• Arab unrest has spread to oil-producing regions of several Gulf Cooperation Council countries, forcing periodic suspensions of oil

production

• Libyan oil has not come online as quickly as hoped and Algeria has production problems

 • United States has withdrawn from Iraq and decreased presence in

Persian Gulf• Iran has emerged as a major military and political force in the

region 

• Uncertainty over Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’s illness has caused regime collapse

• The majority of Venezuelan oil is now off the market

• Oil prices have surged to more than $200 a barrel on speculation• Spot shortages in the oil market are becoming more frequent

 • There is no global power prepared to deal with the situation

• Turkey and its neighbors must address the problem of regional energy security to maintain economic growth and regional

stability

Opening Scenario: 2012

Turkey/Europe

Turkey Oil