Turkey Economic Outlook 1Q18 - BBVA Research · Turkey Economic Outlook – 1Q 2018 The Turkish...
29
BBVA Research January 2018 Turkey Economic Outlook 1 st Quarter 2018
Transcript of Turkey Economic Outlook 1Q18 - BBVA Research · Turkey Economic Outlook – 1Q 2018 The Turkish...
BBVA Research January 2018
Turkey Economic Outlook 1st Quarter 2018
Turkey Economic Outlook – 1Q 2018
Key messages
1. The global demand continues to improve with better forecasts
for the US, China and the Eurozone, while the policy
normalization of global central banks is ongoing
2. The policy impulse and the resilience of the economy pushed
the Turkish economy to strong growth dynamics. We expect
GDP growth to reach 7% in 2017 and moderate towards 4.5%
this year
3. The labor market is finally benefiting from strong growth while
the degree of slack in the economy is dying out
4. Inflation will remain high during most of the year on inertia,
robust domestic demand and lagged effects of exchange rate
depreciation. It will moderate to 9% at the end of 2018
5. The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) will maintain the tight
stance waiting for clearer signs of disinflation and expectations
to ease. The fiscal policy will remain accommodative in 2018
6. Current account deficit should be monitored as it is already
above 5% of GDP and the pick up in investment and the new
oil prices scenario pose some upward risks
Turkey Economic Outlook – 1Q 2018
GLOBAL Global growth confirmed and
short-terms risks moderated
Turkey Economic Outlook – 1Q 2018
Global growth consolidates & monetary policy normalization is ongoing
01 Projections for the U.S., China
and Eurozone improve
There is less uncertainty in the
short run
02 More positive perspectives for
emerging economies
Better global demand and higher
commodity prices
03 Greater caution in financial
markets
Expectations of less liquidity
might reduce flows to emerging
economies
04 Central Banks continue progressing
towards normalization
Motifs to withdraw stimulus are
materializing in the midst of a
contained core inflation
05 Global risks
Less significant in the short run;
without changes in medium to
long run
4
Turkey Economic Outlook – 1Q 2018
Robust and sustained global growth…
5
World GDP growth (Forecasts based on BBVA-GAIN, % QoQ)
The global economy continues to grow,
supported by the recovery of the industrial sector
Confidence indicators continue to improve, and
anticipate the outlook will continue to be positive
Private consumption keeps sustaining growth in
advanced economies and gains momentum in
emerging economies
5 Source: BBVA Research
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Dec-1
2
Jun-1
3
Dec-1
3
Jun-1
4
Dec-1
4
Jun-1
5
Dec-1
5
Jun-1
6
Dec-1
6
Jun-1
7
Dec-1
7
CI 20% CI 40% CI 60%
Point Estimates Period average
Turkey Economic Outlook – 1Q 2018
Down
Up
Unchanged
…with a broad-based revision
UNITED STATES
2018
2.6 2019
2.5
SOUTH AMERICA
2019
2.6
EURO ZONE
CHINA 2018
2.2
2019
6.0
WORLD
2018
3.8 2017
3.8
2019
1.8
2018
1.6
2018
6.3 MEXICO 2019
2.2 2018
2.0
2019
4.3 2018
4.5
TURKEY
6 Source: BBVA Research
Turkey Economic Outlook – 1Q 2018
A weaker Phillips Curve but still something to monitor
7
Reduction in the economies’ output gap, but with
room to grow without strong inflationary
pressures
Less price reaction to the increase in activity, for
several reasons:
• Globalisation
• Increased flexibility in the labour market
• Low inflationary expectations
• Reduced productivity growth
The increase in the price of oil will push up
inflation in the short term, facilitating central
banks to move towards normalisation in
developed economies
OECD: Production gap and inflation (% of potential GDP, % YoY)
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Output gap Inflation
Turkey Economic Outlook – 1Q 2018
A better outlook for emerging economies but also for oil prices
The increase in oil prices reflects a greater
global demand, which would account for 60% of
such increase
But this is also due to supply factors, linked to
geopolitical risks and the correction of
inventories
Positive and significant impact on emerging
economies that produce raw materials
However, we still expect prices to converge to
$60 per barrel in the medium term, due to
increased competition and structural changes in
the energy sector
Price of oil
(Dollars per barrel,%)
8
Variation over previous period Dollars per barrel
4Q17 2018 2019
18%
21.8%
-2.8%
61.5
65.9
64.1
Source: BBVA Research
Turkey Economic Outlook – 1Q 2018
Withdrawal of non-conventional monetary policy measures is ongoing
9
Fed
ECB BoJ
Tig
hte
nin
g
Easin
g
Pre-crisis Crisis Normalization
Hike in interest rates
Reinvestment of
maturities
Interest rate
rises
Partial
reinvestment
Reduction
of
purchasing
of bonds
Turkey Economic Outlook – 1Q 2018
Elements of uncertainty:
FED ECB
Tightening cycle and reduction of
the balance in progress
Estimated rise of 75pbs in 2018 to
2.25% and reduction of the balance
by 500,000 million dollars
QE reduction, but extension
until September 2018
No rate hikes are expected
until 2019
Focus: avoid sudden
acceleration of long-term rates Focus:
gain room for manoeuvre
Monetary policy normalization: accelerated in the case of the Fed,
gradual in the case of the ECB
10
• Macro : possible
surprises in inflation
• Politics: changes in
government ministries
(Fed, ECB)
• Markets: Long-term rates
and slope of the curve
Turkey Economic Outlook – 1Q 2018
Cautiousness in financial markets, with gradual moderation in flows
to emerging economies
11
Appetite for risk indicator 1st Factor (global), analysis of capital flows EPFR
Source: BBVA Research, EPFR
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17
"Risk-on mood"
"Risk-off mood"
Acceleration in
the normalization
process
Post-Trump
Pre-Trump
Turkey Economic Outlook – 1Q 2018
12
Turkish
Economy Strong Growth and Inflation
Turkey Economic Outlook – 1Q 2018
The Turkish economy during the last quarter
01
Strong growth and declining
unemployment
Labor market is finally benefiting
from strong growth
02
Exchange rate depreciated on
Global & Geopolitical woes
High exchange rate volatility at
the end of the year
03 Inflation remain high on both
supply and demand factors
High inflation will recede but
remain at high levels
04 Tight Monetary Policy
The Central Bank tightened
monetary policy with words & deeds
05 Fiscal Policy loosened but lower
than expected
Strong nominal growth supported
revenues
06 The current account deficit should
be monitored
Again above the 5% mark on
investment recovery, oil prices and
gold imports
13
Turkey Economic Outlook – 1Q 2018
-0.04
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18
Global Component % Local Component %
TL Weekly Change %3.35
3.45
3.55
3.65
3.75
3.85
3.95
4.05
Jan-1
7
Jan-1
7
Feb
-17
Ma
r-1
7
Ma
r-1
7
Apr-
17
Ma
y-1
7
Ma
y-1
7
Jun-1
7
Jul-1
7
Jul-1
7
Aug-1
7
Sep-1
7
Oct-
17
Oct-
17
No
v-1
7
De
c-1
7
De
c-1
7
Jan-1
8
The volatility of Turkish Lira increased on geopolitical factors while
global factors started to be more supportive
Lira Exchange Rate : Global & Local (contribution to % weekly change from different factors )
Turkish Lira vs USD (TRL/USD)
Geopolitical Events Stress and Reversals
FX Depreciation
FX Appreciation
14
Turkey Economic Outlook – 1Q 2018
Economic growth skyrocketed in 3Q thanks to low base impact and
working day adjustments but remained promising in 4Q, consistent with
our 7% GDP growth forecast for 2017
Activity Indicators (%YoY 3MA)
Turkey: GDP Monthly Indicator (% YoY mov. avg. 3m)
Source: BBVA Research Nowcasting Model 15
M ean May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Industrial Production 3.9 4.2 2.2 7.7 7.7 13.8 8.6 9.6
Non-metal Mineral 1.7 2.7 0.9 8.2 8.4 14.2 7.7 8.7
Electricity Production 4.5 6.6 4.5 8.4 8.5 12.2 9.5 9.7 6.5
Auto Sales 3.5 -10.3 -9.7 2.4 7.1 14.6 7.3 -1.4
Tourist Arriv als 2.1 26.5 36.5 45.5 45.3 38.2 31.0
Number of Employ ed 5.5 16.1 10.5 6.1 1.5 -0.8 -5.1
Number of Unemploy ed 3.5 2.0 2.7 3.5 4.3 4.5 4.8
Auto Imports 5.1 -13.9 -14.4 -6.7 -3.4 3.1 -0.9 -8.4
Auto Exports 9.2 32.4 24.0 23.2 9.8 5.9 33.3 28.9
Financial Conditions 75.4 30.6 35.6 40.5 35.4 38.9 26.1 10.0 15.2
13-week Credit Growth 17.8 37.2 29.2 20.1 17.6 14.5 14.5 12.0 13.4
Retail Sales 3.6 0.1 0.8 1.8 2.0 1.5 1.3 1.9
Real Sector Conf idence 106.1 104.8 108.8 107.7 110.2 111.2 112.2 109.8 109.2
MICA Forecast 11.8% 9.1% 6.7%
GDP YoY 5.4% 11.1%
BoomContraction Slow-down Growth
2017
-4%
-3%
-1%
1%
2%
4%
5%
7%
8%
10%
11%
13%
14%
Sep-1
3
De
c-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Jun-1
4
Sep-1
4
De
c-1
4
Ma
r-1
5
Jun-1
5
Sep-1
5
De
c-1
5
Ma
r-1
6
Jun-1
6
Sep-1
6
De
c-1
6
Ma
r-1
7
Jun-1
7
Sep-1
7
De
c-1
7
Hu
nd
red
s
GDP Growth
BBVA-GB GDP Growth (Monthly)
GDP growth nowcast
October : 11.8% (100% of inf.)
November : 9.1% (90% of inf.)
December : 6.7% (26% of inf.)
Turkey Economic Outlook – 1Q 2018
The Credit Guarantee Fund (CGF) has proved to be an efficient
counter-cyclical tool, but not a “free lunch”
The Effects of a “Credit Supply Shock” to the Economy* (Shock of CGF, 5 times standard deviation in loans shock. Variables in 3-Month Moving Average)
* See the detailed analysis in the following link
Source: BBVA Research
The CGF had a positive contribution to growth
between 1.0-1.5pp in 2017 with a somewhat
delayed impact on inflation once the domestic
demand side of the economy reacted
There is some uncertainty about the magnitude
of the negative/positive base effect in 2018
depending on the allocation of remaining funds,
the roll-over of last year´s program or the
existence of new programs
The economic outlook will also matter.
Household and Corporate demand and Banks’
willingness to supply also depend on the
macroeconomic conditions surrounding the
program
16
Turkey Economic Outlook – 1Q 2018
Strong domestic demand has finally benefited the labor market while
the amount of slack has now disappeared
Unemployment Rate (SA, %)
Source: Turkstat and BBVA Research 17
15%
18%
21%
24%
9%
10%
11%
12%
Oct-
13
Feb
-14
Jun-1
4
Oct-
14
Fe
b-1
5
Jun-1
5
Oct-
15
Feb
-16
Jun-1
6
Oct-
16
Feb
-17
Jun-1
7
Oct-
17
Unemployment Rate
Youth people unemployment rate-rhs
* Output gap one standard deviation range includes: Linear Model, Capacity
Utilization, Hodrick-Prescott Filter (1600), Credit Neutral (Borio et al), Multivariate
Filter Model , Open Economy NK Model.
Source: BBVA Research & CBRT Inflation Report
Output Gap Models and Core inflation ( Ouput gap % of GDP (left) and Core Inflation B YoY ,right)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Median 6 Models* 1 stdev range BBVA MPM Model Output Gap
Core Inflation Central Bank of Turkey November IR Output Gap (RHS)
Turkey Economic Outlook – 1Q 2018
Favorable base effects on food will help inflation fall sharply in the
short term but it will navigate on high levels due to still high domestic
demand, inertia and lagged effects of exchange rate depreciation
CPI Inflation & Its Components (YoY)
Inflation Expectations (YoY)
Source: Turkstat and BBVA Research
-4%
-1%
2%
5%
8%
11%
14%
17%
De
c-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Jun-1
4
Sep-1
4
De
c-1
4
Ma
r-1
5
Jun-1
5
Sep-1
5
De
c-1
5
Ma
r-1
6
Jun-1
6
Sep-1
6
De
c-1
6
Ma
r-1
7
Jun-1
7
Sep-1
7
De
c-1
7
Core Food Energy CPI
0.06
0.065
0.07
0.075
0.08
0.085
0.09
0.095
De
c-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Jun-1
4
Sep-1
4
De
c-1
4
Ma
r-1
5
Jun-1
5
Sep-1
5
De
c-1
5
Ma
r-1
6
Jun-1
6
Sep-1
6
De
c-1
6
Ma
r-1
7
Jun-1
7
Sep-1
7
De
c-1
7
12-month ahead 24-month ahead
18
Turkey Economic Outlook – 1Q 2018
CBRT Interest Rates (Annual Level, %)
The CBRT tightened monetary policy by 75 bps at the end of 2017 with
additional «verbal tightening» during the last meetings
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
Jan-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Sep-1
5
Jan-1
6
Ma
y-1
6
Sep-1
6
Jan-1
7
Ma
y-1
7
Sep-1
7
Jan-1
8
Hu
nd
red
s
CBRT One-Week Repo CBRT Cost of Funding
CBRT LLW
CBRT Monetary Policy Statement Sentiment (Standardized, estimated through Big Data LDA Techniques from Minutes & Statements)
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Jan-0
6
Jul-0
6
Jan-0
7
Jul-0
7
Jan-0
8
Jul-0
8
Jan-0
9
Jul-0
9
Jan-1
0
Jul-1
0
Jan-1
1
Jul-1
1
Jan-1
2
Jul-1
2
Jan-1
3
Jul-1
3
Jan-1
4
Jul-1
4
Jan-1
5
Jul-1
5
Jan-1
6
Jul-1
6
Jan-1
7
Jul-1
7
Jan-1
8
Loose Monetary Policy Sentiment
Tight Monetary Policy Sentiment
Source: CBRT and BBVA Research 19
Turkey Economic Outlook – 1Q 2018
Strong nominal growth boosted revenues supporting a better than
expected Central Government deficit of 1.5% of GDP in 2017
Budget and Primary Balance (% GDP, *4Q GDP data is a forecast)
We expect some deterioration in fiscal balance
on the back of lower nominal revenues and
some upward pressures on expenditures
Better than expected budget deficit in 2017
opens the door for more fiscal consolidation
However, we think that the Government will
stick to the programmed Medium Term Plan
given some pressures on some expenditure
items (i.e defence and security)
BBVA Research Forecasts Government MTP Forecasts
-0.025
-0.02
-0.015
-0.01
-0.005
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
De
c.1
2
De
c.1
3
De
c.1
4
De
c.1
5
De
c.1
6
De
c.1
7
De
c.1
8
De
c.1
9
De
c.2
0
Budget Balance Primary Balance
Source:Turkstat, Ministry of Finance 20
Turkey Economic Outlook – 1Q 2018
Jan-1
6
Feb
-16
Ma
r-1
6
Apr-
16
Ma
y-1
6
Jun-1
6
Jul-1
6
Aug-1
6
Sep-1
6
Oct-
16
No
v-1
6
De
c-1
6
Jan-1
7
Feb
-17
Ma
r-1
7
Apr-
17
Ma
y-1
7
Jun-1
7
Jul-1
7
Aug-1
7
Sep-1
7
Oct-
17
No
v-1
7
De
c-1
7
Lo
w
Sa
fe
Hig
h
Inte
ns
e
Turkey: Conflict Index (Conflict News op Total News in News Media)
Number of Tourists and Tourism Revenues (3MA, YoY)
-45%
-30%
-15%
0%
15%
30%
45%
No
v-1
2
Feb
-13
Ma
y-1
3
Aug-1
3
No
v-1
3
Feb
-14
Ma
y-1
4
Aug-1
4
No
v-1
4
Feb
-15
Ma
y-1
5
Aug-1
5
No
v-1
5
Feb
-16
Ma
y-1
6
Aug-1
6
No
v-1
6
Feb
-17
Ma
y-1
7
Aug-1
7
No
v-1
7
Foreign Tourist Arrivals Tourism Revenue
The security climate has improved markedly allowing tourism arrivals
and revenues to recover
Source: BBVA Research,, GDELT, Turkstat 21
Turkey Economic Outlook – 1Q 2018
Strong domestic demand, higher energy prices and gold imports led
current account deficit to rise above 5% of GDP again
22
Current Account Balance (12M sum, bn USD)
Current Account Financing (12M sum, % GDP)
-90.0
-70.0
-50.0
-30.0
-10.0
10.0
30.0
No
v-0
6
No
v-0
7
No
v-0
8
No
v-0
9
No
v-1
0
No
v-1
1
No
v-1
2
No
v-1
3
No
v-1
4
No
v-1
5
No
v-1
6
No
v-1
7
CAB CAB Exc. Energy & Gold
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Ma
r-0
9
Sep-0
9
Ma
r-1
0
Sep-1
0
Ma
r-1
1
Sep-1
1
Ma
r-1
2
Sep-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Sep-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Sep-1
4
Ma
r-1
5
Sep-1
5
Ma
r-1
6
Sep-1
6
Ma
r-1
7
Sep-1
7
Net Portfolio Flows Net FDI Net Other Investment CAD
Source: CBRT, Turkstat and BBVA Research
Turkey Economic Outlook – 1Q 2018
23
Turkey
Outlook The Base Scenario and
The Balance of Risks
Turkey Economic Outlook – 1Q 2018
24
GDP Forecasts (YoY)
Strong growth set to moderate but with balanced risks
Economic growth will moderate as last year´s
stimuli fade away. We expect GDP to grow
4.5% in 2018 after the extraordinary growth
rate of 2017 at 7.0%
A positive outlook of the global economy, a
sustained recovery of non-residential private
investment and a new round of policy stimulus
pose risks on the upside
A more aggressive than expected Global
Monetary Policy normalization and Geopolitical
risks pose risks on the downside
Source: Turkstat & Garanti MPM Model
-3%
-2%
0%
2%
3%
5%
6%
8%
9%
11%
12%
De
c.1
4
Ap
r.1
5
Au
g.1
5
De
c.1
5
Ap
r.1
6
Au
g.1
6
De
c.1
6
Ap
r.1
7
Au
g.1
7
De
c.1
7
Ap
r.1
8
Au
g.1
8
De
c.1
8
Ap
r.1
9
Au
g.1
9
De
c.1
9
Turkey Economic Outlook – 1Q 2018
25
Inflation Forecasts (3MA YoY baseline scenario)
Inflation will remain high but the worst is over in our base case scenario
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
De
c-1
5
Ma
r-1
6
Jun-1
6
Sep-1
6
De
c-1
6
Ma
r-1
7
Jun-1
7
Sep-1
7
De
c-1
7
Ma
r-1
8
Jun-1
8
Sep-1
8
De
c-1
8
Ma
r-1
9
Jun-1
9
Sep-1
9
De
c-1
9
CBRT target
Inflation will start to moderate soon (1Q) but
will remain near 10% until 4Q before ending
the year at 9.0%
Risks are balanced. Exchange rate
depreciation lower than expected and
structural measures to reduce food price
volatility may result in positive surprises
Higher oil prices, strong inertia and new
exchange rate shocks from global &
geopolitical factors may pose upside risks
Source: Turkstat & Garanti MPM Model
Turkey Economic Outlook – 1Q 2018
The CBRT will maintain the current policy unless a new shock arises.
Exchange rate will depreciate more moderately.
Monetary Policy Rate Forecasts (% Average Funfing Cost)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
De
c-1
3
Apr-
14
Aug-1
4
De
c-1
4
Apr-
15
Aug-1
5
De
c-1
5
Apr-
16
Aug-1
6
De
c-1
6
Apr-
17
Aug-1
7
De
c-1
7
Apr-
18
Aug-1
8
De
c-1
8
Apr-
19
Aug-1
9
De
c-1
9
Exchange Rate Forecasts (USDTRY Level baseline scenario)
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5
5.2
De
c-1
5
Ma
r-1
6
Jun-1
6
Sep-1
6
De
c-1
6
Ma
r-1
7
Jun-1
7
Sep-1
7
De
c-1
7
Ma
r-1
8
Jun-1
8
Sep-1
8
De
c-1
8
Ma
r-1
9
Jun-1
9
Sep-1
9
De
c-1
9
• Macro : Domestic demand
pressures and inflation risks
Elements of uncertainty:
• Global: Normalization of
Monetary Policies (Fed, ECB)
• Risk Premia:
Geopolitical risks
26
Turkey Economic Outlook – 1Q 2018
Baseline forecasts
27 F= forecast. (*) realization.
2016 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f
GDP Growth (%) 3.2% 7.0% 4.5% 4.3% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
Private consumption (%) 3.7% 6.2% 4.0% 3.6% 4.3% 4.1% 4.1% 4.3%
Public consumption (%) 9.5% 2.2% 4.0% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
Gross fixed investment (%) 2.2% 7.9% 3.0% 4.6% 5.1% 5.7% 5.6% 5.5%
Exports (%) -1.9% 11.8% 8.4% 6.5% 6.0% 5.6% 5.6% 5.5%
Imports (%) 3.7% 6.1% 5.2% 5.6% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
Inflation (end of period. YoY %) 8.5% 11.9%* 9.0% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.7% 6.0%
Exchange Rate vs US dollar (end of period) 3.52 3.77* 4.15 4.45 4.65 4.84 5.04 5.25
Exchange Rate vs US dollar (average) 3.02 3.65* 4.01 4.31 4.56 4.75 4.95 5.16
Official Interest Rate (end of period) 8.3% 12.8%* 12.8% 10.0% 8.3% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5%
Official Interest Rate (average) 8.4% 11.5%* 12.8% 11.6% 8.6% 7.8% 7.5% 7.5%
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.8% -5.5% -5.6% -5.6% -5.4% -5.4% -5.4% -5.5%
Central Government Budget Balance (% of GDP) -1.1% -1.5% -2.2% -2.2% -2.1% -1.8% -1.6% -1.4%
EU Defined Public Debt (% of GDP) 28.3% 29.3% 30.9% 31.6% 31.7% 31.4% 31.1% 31.0%
Turkey Economic Outlook – 1Q 2018
BBVA-Research Jorge Sicilia Serrano
Macroeconomic analysis
Rafael Doménech
Global Economic Situations
Miguel Jiménez
Global Financial Markets
Sonsoles Castillo
Long-Term Global Modelling and Analysis
Julián Cubero
Innovation and Processes
Oscar de las Peñas
Financial Systems and Regulation
Santiago Fernández de Lis
International Coordination
Olga Cerqueira
Digital Regulation
Álvaro Martín
Regulation
Financial Systems
Ana Rubio
Financial Inclusion
Spain and Portugal
Miguel Cardoso
United States
Nathaniel Karp
Mexico
Carlos Serrano
Middle East, Asia and
Geopolitical
Álvaro Ortiz
Turkey
Álvaro Ortiz
Asia
Le Xia
South America
Juan Manuel Ruiz
Argentina
Gloria Sorensen
Chile
Jorge Selaive
Colombia
Juana Téllez
Peru
Hugo Perea
Venezuela
Julio Pineda
This report has been produced by the Turkey, China and Geopolitics Unit Chief Economist for Turkey, China and Geopolitics Unit
Álvaro Ortiz
Seda Güler Mert
+90 212 318 10 64
Adem İleri
+90 212 318 10 63
Yiğit Engin
+90 212 318 10 60
Serkan Kocabas
+90 212 318 10 57
Ali Batuhan Barlas
+90 212 318 10 67
Deniz Ergun
+90 212 318 10 59
With the collaboration of
Global Economic Situations Miguel Jiménez
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BBVA Research January 2018
Turkey Economic Outlook 1st Quarter 2018
