©2015 The Advisory Board Company 1 eab.com

Prepared for the University of Wisconsin, Superior

Enrollment Opportunity and Risk Analysis

Academic Affairs Forum Research Brief

©2015 The Advisory Board Company 2 eab.com

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Academic Affairs Forum

Brittany Coppola Research Associate

Anna Krenkel

Senior Research Manager

©2015 The Advisory Board Company 3 eab.com

Table of Contents

1) Executive Overview ..................................................................................................... 4

Key Observations .............................................................................................................. 4

Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 6

2) Enrollment and Demographic Trends ........................................................................... 8

Total Enrollment Growth ..................................................................................................... 8

Enrollment Growth by Level ................................................................................................ 9

Growth by Undergraduate Student Segment ....................................................................... 10

Undergraduate Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity....................................................................... 11

Student Success by Racial or Ethnic Group ......................................................................... 12

Undergraduate Enrollment by Family Income ...................................................................... 13

3) Degree Completion Growth by Discipline ................................................................... 14

Bachelor’s Program Portfolio ............................................................................................. 14

Recent Program Growth at the University of Wisconsin, Superior – Bachelor’s ......................... 15

Recent Program Growth at Peer Institutions – Bachelor’s ...................................................... 16

Master’s Program Portfolio ................................................................................................ 17

Recent Program Growth at University of Wisconsin, Superior – Master’s ................................. 18

Recent Program Growth at Peer Institutions – Master’s ........................................................ 19

4) List of Resources ....................................................................................................... 20

Recommended Readings ................................................................................................... 20

5) Research Methodology ............................................................................................... 21

Project Sources ............................................................................................................... 21

Research Parameters ....................................................................................................... 21

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1) Executive Overview

For the vast majority of colleges and universities, financial sustainability

depends on maintaining or growing enrollment. A range of demographic,

economic and competitive trends, however, indicate that sustaining enrollment over

the next decade will become increasingly difficult. This diagnostic is intended to

identify the top enrollment opportunities and risks facing the University of

Wisconsin, Superior as the beginning of a process of building a comprehensive

strategy.

The University of Wisconsin, Superior is one of the slowest-growing

universities among profiled institutions. From 2003 to 2013, the University of

Wisconsin, Superior ranked third-to-last in total enrollment growth. During this time,

enrollment decreased by more than six percent. The two institutions that experienced

greater enrollment declines than the University were Shepherd University and Fort

Lewis College. The majority of enrollment declines at the University of Wisconsin,

Superior are due to declines in graduate enrollment; during this time, graduate

enrollment decreased by 30 percent, while undergraduate enrollment decreased by

one percent.

The University of Wisconsin, Superior enrolls lower percentages of black,

Hispanic, and Asian students than peer institutions. Although the enrollment of

minority students remains a growth opportunity for all profiled institutions, the

University of Wisconsin, Superior enrolls a greater proportion of white students than

peer institutions. However, the University has capitalized on the international student

market more successfully than peers, as international student enrollment composed

six percent of total student enrollment in 2013, compared to two percent at peer

institutions.

First-year students who come from families that earn between $48K and

$110K compose nearly half of total first year enrollments at the University of

Wisconsin, Superior. Combined, first year students from these income brackets

composed 48 percent of first year enrollments in 2012, compared to 35 percent at

peers. However, peer institutions are more dependent on the enrollment of first year

students that come from families that earn at least $110K than the University of

Wisconsin, Superior.

The two most popular bachelor’s degrees at the University of Wisconsin,

Superior are business and education. In 2013, the combined completions of these

two degrees composed 37 percent of total bachelor’s degree completions. Although

the University of Wisconsin, Superior completes a greater percentage of students in at

least six bachelor’s degrees, peers offer some undergraduate degrees that the

University does not; the most popular of these is general/liberal sciences.

More bachelor’s degrees are experiencing growth at peer institutions than

the University of Wisconsin, Superior. Enrollment in six of 14 bachelor’s degrees

declined at the University of Wisconsin, Superior from 2011 to 2013, whereas four of

17 bachelor’s degrees declined at peers during this time. Notably, the most popular

bachelor’s degrees at the University, business and education, were not the fastest-

growing bachelor’s degrees from 2011 to 2013.

Peers offer more master’s degrees than the University of Wisconsin,

Superior. The University of Wisconsin, Superior offers three master’s programs,

whereas peer institutions offer more than 10 master’s degrees. The most popular

master’s degree at all profiled institutions is education. However, the University of

Wisconsin, Superior, is more dependent on this master’s degree than peers; in 2013

Key

Observations

©2015 The Advisory Board Company 5 eab.com

the master’s in education composed 75 percent of total master’s degree completions

compared to 45 percent at peers.

Similar to trends in bachelor degree growth, more master’s degrees are

growing at peer institutions than the University of Wisconsin, Superior. From

2011 to 2013, the master’s degrees in education and arts experienced declines at the

University, and the enrollment in master’s in communications and journalism were

stable. At profiled peer institutions, the master’s-level business programs are one of

the most popular master’s degrees, and this degree experienced the greatest change

in the number of absolute completions during this time.

©2015 The Advisory Board Company 6 eab.com

As other funding sources come under pressure, universities are all becoming more

dependent on tuition revenue. At the same time, changing demographic patterns and

increasing competition for highly sought after student groups threatens traditional

enrollment patterns.

Undergraduate enrollment remains the core at most institution but faces the greatest

challenges over the next decade. The first section looks at overall enrollment growth

compared to peer institutions, comparing growth in undergraduate enrollment versus

graduate enrollment. Changes in undergraduate enrollment are analyzed by age,

race, ethnicity, family income, and state origin. Finally, student success rates are

compared across racial and ethnic groups.

Master’s enrollment offers the greatest potential for revenue growth for most

institutions. The second section analyzes master’s degree completions by discipline

comparing the University of Wisconsin, Superior’s portfolio and growth drivers to

those of peer institutions. The report concludes with a list of EAB research reports

related to the specific challenges and opportunities identified.

Peer Selection

The EAB custom research team provided a peer group:

• Eastern Connecticut State University

• Fort Lewis College

• Henderson State University

• Midwestern State University

• Shepherd University

• St. Mary’s College of Maryland

• The Evergreen State College

• University of Mary Washington

• University of Minnesota, Morris

• University of North Carolina at Asheville

See Section 5) Research Methodology for peer institutions’ classifications, regional

characteristics, and enrollment numbers, as well as for the selectivity data used in

determining the peer groups.

Data Sources

The majority of the data included in this report was gathered and published by the

Institute of Education Sciences’ Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System

(IPEDS). Complete data may not be available for every institution. It should also be

noted that the IPEDS degree completions data builds on Classification of Instructional

Program (CIP) codes, which were revised in 1990, 2000 and 2010. As a result, our

completions analyses rely on crosswalks that enable longitudinal comparisons of

completions. While these crosswalks allow us to track CIP codes that were changed, a

fraction of CIP codes were created or deleted with each revision.

This report also includes the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education’s

Knocking at the College Door high school graduate forecasts.

Introduction

©2015 The Advisory Board Company 7 eab.com

The analyses in this report use the latest data; enrollment data is available through

2003-2013, and degree completions data is available through 2011-2013. Please note

that the dates in the report refer to the spring semester of the year in question; thus,

2013 refers to the 2012-2013 academic year.

©2015 The Advisory Board Company 8 eab.com

2) Enrollment and Demographic Trends

The University of Wisconsin, Superior Grew More Slowly

than All But Two Peers from 2003 to 2013

The chart below maps the University of Wisconsin, Superior’s performance on

total fall enrollment growth, in both absolute and percentage terms, respective to its

peer institutions (bubble sizes represent total enrollment in 2013). From 2003 to

2013, the University of Wisconsin, Superior ranked third-to-last in enrollment growth.

During this time, enrollment declined at the University by approximately seven

percent. Two institutions experienced greater declines in enrollment than the

University of Wisconsin, Superior, (i.e., Shepherd University and Fort Lewis

College).

Total Enrollment Growth, All Institutions, 2003-2013

X

T

Total Enrollment Growth

©2015 The Advisory Board Company 9 eab.com

The University of Wisconsin, Superior is One of Four

Profiled Institutions that Experienced Declines in Undergraduate and Graduate Enrollment

The following chart contrasts percent growth from 2003 to 2013 for undergraduate

versus graduate fall enrollment at the University of Wisconsin, Superior and its

peer institutions.

Undergraduate and graduate enrollment declined from 2002 to 2013 at the University

of Wisconsin, Superior; undergraduate enrollment declined by one percent, and

graduate enrollment declined by approximately 33 percent. Three other institutions

also experienced declines in graduate and undergraduate growth, including the

Evergreen State College, Midwestern State University, and St. Mary’s College

of Maryland.

Only two institutions experienced increases in graduate enrollment, the University of

North Carolina, Asheville, and Shepherd University. Four institutions grew

undergraduate growth, including Shepherd University, Henderson State University,

the University of Mary Washington, and Eastern Connecticut State University.

The only institutions that grew undergraduate and graduate enrollment during this

time was Shepherd University.

Growth of Undergraduate versus Graduate Enrollment, 2003-2013

Graduate-Driven Growth

Undergraduate-Driven Growth

Enrollment Growth by Level

©2015 The Advisory Board Company 10 eab.com

Peer Institutions Enroll More Transfer Students than the

University of Wisconsin, Superior

From 2007 to 2013, the University of Wisconsin, Superior experienced decreased

enrollment of all major student segments. However, increasing the enrollment of

major student segments remains a growth opportunity for all profiled institutions.

Although the University of Wisconsin, Superior decreased the enrollment rates of

adults aged 25 and older during this time, peers experienced declines in enrollment of

this student segment by 16 more percentage points.

The recruitment of transfer students remains a growth opportunity for the University

of Wisconsin, Superior; peers capitalized on this market by increasing the enrollment

of transfer students by three percent, yet the enrollment of transfer students at the

University of Wisconsin, Superior decreased by 10 percent during this time.

Enrollment Growth (Percentage) by Major Student Segments, 2007-

20131

1 IPEDS began collecting this data in 2007, so figures for earlier years are unavailable.

Growth by Undergraduate

Student Segment

©2015 The Advisory Board Company 11 eab.com

The University of Wisconsin, Superior Enrolls a Greater

Percentage of International Students than Peers

Demographic projections show that the number of white high school graduates will

decline over the next decade, while Hispanic students (and to a lesser degree Asian

students) are anticipated to increase significantly.

Enrollment of black, Hispanic, and Asian peers remains a growth opportunity for all

profiled institutions. However, the University of Wisconsin, Superior enrolled

these minorities at lower proportions than peers in 2013. The University of Wisconsin,

Superior enrolled international students by four more percentage points than peers

during this time.

Share of Undergraduate Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity, 2013

Undergraduate Enrollment by

Race/Ethnicity

Stronger Than

Peers

Weaker Than

Peers

Weaker Than

Peers

Weaker Than

Peers

Weaker Than

Peers

Weaker Than

Peers

Stronger Than

Peers

©2015 The Advisory Board Company 12 eab.com

The University of Wisconsin, Superior has Lower 6-year

Graduation Rates for White, Black, and Hispanic Students than Peers

Student success is a priority for all institutions, and as demographic patterns shift,

populations with historically lower completion rates are projected to increase,

threatening to reduce overall completion rates.

Peer institutions had greater six-year graduation rates for white, black, Hispanic, and

Asian students than the University of Wisconsin, Superior in 2011. However, the

University of Wisconsin, Superior had higher six-year graduation rates for

Asian/Pacific Islander and American Indian/Alaskan students than peers during this

time.

Undergraduate Graduation Rates (6-year) by Race/Ethnicity, 2011

Student Success

by Racial or Ethnic Group

Weaker

Than Peers

Stronger Than

Peers

Stronger Than

Peers

Weaker

Than Peers

Weaker

Than Peers

Equal to Peers

©2015 The Advisory Board Company 13 eab.com

The University of Wisconsin, Superior Enrolled a Higher

Proportion of Middle Income and Wealthy Students than Peers in 2012

Tuition-dependent colleges and universities tend to enroll a larger share of high-

income students than publics, and these students are often critical to financial

sustainability. However, increasing competition for this segment will make

maintaining that enrollment a challenge. The graph below displays the income level of

the University of Wisconsin, Superior’s first-time, full-time freshmen who receive

Title IV financial aid.

The University of Wisconsin, Superior enrolled a greater proportion of first year

students from families that earn between $48K and $110K than peers in 2012.

Combined, enrollment of students from these income levels composed 48 percent of

first year students during this time. Notably, peers enrolled a higher proportion of

first year students from families that earned $110K or more during this time by 13

percentage points.

First year students that came from families that earned $48K or less composed 20

percent of first year enrollment at all profiled institutions in 2012.

Share of Full-time First Year Federal Aid Recipients2 by Income Level,

2012

2 IPEDS only collects family income data for those students who receive federal grants or student loans (i.e., Title IV aid). This represents

about 50% of all students at public universities and 58% at private, non-profit institutions (doctorate-granting), according to NCES

analysis. Since students who do not receive Title IV aid are more likely to be high-income, our analysis produces income distribution estimates that are biased downward; that is, an institution’s real income distribution is likely to be more skewed towards wealthy students

than this graph suggests.

Undergraduate

Enrollment by Family Income

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3) Degree Completion Growth by Discipline

The University of Wisconsin, Superior Is Dependent on

the Undergraduate Degree in Business

The following chart examines each discipline’s share of total bachelor’s degree

completions at the University of Wisconsin, Superior and its peers; in essence, it

shows the “dependence” of each institution on certain disciplines.

The most popular undergraduate degrees at the University of Wisconsin, Superior are

business and education; in 2013, the combined completion rates for these composed

37 percent of total undergraduate bachelor completions. Peers were most dependent

on undergraduate psychology and general/liberal studies during this time.

Peers offer six more undergraduate degrees than the University of Wisconsin,

Superior, including general/liberal studies, parks, recreation and fitness studies,

foreign language/linguistics, natural resources and conservation, philosophy/religious

studies, and engineering.

Share of Bachelor’s Completions by Discipline, University of

Wisconsin, Superior and Peer Institutions, 2013

Bachelor’s Program Portfolio

Percentages may not add to 100 because disciplines which accounted for <1% of completions across institutions were eliminated from the sample.

©2015 The Advisory Board Company 15 eab.com

Forty Three Percent of Undergraduate Degrees Declined

from 2011 to 2013 at the University of Wisconsin, Superior

Six of 14 undergraduate degrees experienced declines from 2011 to 2013 at the

University of Wisconsin, Superior. The undergraduate degree that experienced the

greatest decline was history, which declined by more than 60 percent.

The undergraduate degree that grew the fastest from 2011 to 2013 was art, which

added 20 absolute completions. However, the undergraduate degree that added the

greatest number of absolute undergraduate completions during this time was

business (25 absolute completions). Although education is one of the most popular

bachelor’s programs at the University of Wisconsin, Superior, this undergraduate

degree grew slowly from 2011 to 2013.

Bachelor’s Degree Completions Growth by Discipline (Absolute and

Percentage), University of Wisconsin, Superior, 2011-2013

Recent Program Growth at the

University of

Wisconsin, Superior –

Bachelor’s

©2015 The Advisory Board Company 16 eab.com

The Most Popular Undergraduate Master’s Programs at

Peer Institutions are Slow-Growing or Declining

The most popular undergraduate degree at peer institutions is liberal arts and

sciences. From 2011 to 2013, this undergraduate degree grew by approximately 10

percent. Notably, another popular undergraduate degree, social sciences, declined

during this time by one percent. The fastest-growing undergraduate degree during

this time was health, which grew by 30 percent.

Although the majority of undergraduate degrees at peer institutions are experiencing

growth, social sciences, foreign languages, security and law enforcement, and

interdisciplinary studies declined from 2011 to 2013.

Bachelor’s Degree Completions Growth by Discipline (Absolute and

Percentage), Peer Institutions, 2011-2013

Recent Program

Growth at Peer Institutions –

Bachelor’s

©2015 The Advisory Board Company 17 eab.com

The University of Wisconsin, Superior Offers Fewer

Master’s Degrees than Peers

The following chart examines each discipline’s share of total master’s degree

completions at the University of Wisconsin, Superior and its peers; in essence, it

shows the “dependence” of each institution on certain disciplines.

The University of Wisconsin, Superior is more dependent on the master’s degree in

education than peers. In 2013, this master’s degree composed 75 percent of total

master’s completions. By contrast, completions of master’s degrees in education

composed 45 percent of total master’s completions at peer institutions. The second

most popular master’s degree is visual and performing arts, which composed 20

percent of master’s completions during this time.

Peers offer 10 more master’s degrees than the University of Wisconsin, Superior.

Share of Master’s Completions by Discipline, University of Wisconsin,

Superior and Peer Institutions, 2013

Master’s Program

Portfolio

Percentages may not add to 100 because disciplines which accounted for <1% of completions across institutions were eliminated from the sample.

©2015 The Advisory Board Company 18 eab.com

Master’s Degrees Experienced Stagnant Enrollment from

2011 to 2013

The two most popular master’s programs at the University of Wisconsin, Superior,

education and the visual and performing arts, declined from 2011 to 2013 (each by

approximately 20 percent). The master’s in communication and journalism did not

experience any changes in enrollment during this time.

Master’s Degree Completions Growth by Discipline (Absolute and

Percentage), University of Wisconsin, Superior, 2011-2013

Recent Program

Growth at

University of Wisconsin,

Superior –

Master’s

©2015 The Advisory Board Company 19 eab.com

Unlike the University of Wisconsin, Superior Most

Master’s Programs are Growing at Peer Institutions

Although most master’s programs at peers experienced growth from 2011 to 2013,

the change in the number of absolute completions was small; the master’s in

business experienced the greatest change in the number of absolute completions

during this time (approximately 12). Education is the most popular master’s degree at

peer institutions, yet this degree declined by nearly 20 percent from 2011 to 2013.

Master’s Degree Completions Growth by Discipline (Absolute and

Percentage), Peer Institutions, 2011-2013

Recent Program

Growth at Peer

Institutions – Master’s

©2015 The Advisory Board Company 20 eab.com

4) List of Resources

Opportunity Areas

This report has identified international enrollment, minority enrollment and

completions, and master’s and professional degree development.

EAB Research on Existing Areas of Opportunity

Opportunity Related Research

Increase international enrollment

Research Briefs

• International Student Recruitment and Marketing: Administration, Trends, and Techniques

• Organizing International Recruitment through Cross-Campus Partnerships

• Considerations for ESL Program Operations

Improve completion rates for minority students

Research Briefs

• Support Services for First-year Students of Color: Summer Sessions, Pre-orientation Programs, and Peer Mentoring

• Services and Support for First Generation Students and their Families

• Targeted Hispanic Student Recruitment

Developing new master’s and professional degree programs

Research Briefs

• Expediting New Program Development

• Program Development, Modification, and Termination Processes

• Developing Program-Specific Marketing Campaigns

Recommended

Readings

©2015 The Advisory Board Company 21 eab.com

5) Research Methodology

The Forum consulted the following sources for this report:

▪ EAB’s internal and online research libraries (eab.com)

▪ The Chronicle of Higher Education (http://chronicle.com)

▪ National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) (http://nces.ed.gov/)

▪ Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE)

(http://www.wiche.edu/)

The Forum included the following peer institutions:

A Guide to the Peer Institutions in this Brief

Institution Approximate Institutional Enrollment, 2013 - 2014 (Undergraduate/Total)

Sector and Classification

Admissions Rate

SAT Scores, 75th Percentile (Verbal/Math)

Composite ACT Scores

Eastern Connecticut State University

5,139 / 5,287 Public, 4-year 63% N/a N/a

Fort Lewis college 3,766 / 3,791 Public, 4-year 91% 632 / 565 24

Henderson State University

3,232 / 3,627 Public, 4-year 63% 530 / 530 24

Midwestern State University

5,144 / 5,874 Public, 4-year 62% 550 / 550 23

Shepherd University 3,776 / 4,041 Public, 4-year 98% 540 / 550 24

St. Mary’s College of

Maryland

1,688 / 1,721 Public, 4-year 79% 650 / 633 28

The Evergreen State College

3,878 / 4,219 Public, 4-year 99% 630 / 570 26

University of Mary Washington

4,167 / 4,535 Public, 4-year 77% 610 / 590 27

University of Minnesota, Morris

1,899 (all undergraduate) Public, 4-year 64% 680 / 650 28

University of North Carolina, Asheville

3,804 / 3,845 Public, 4-year 73% 660 / 630 28

University of Wisconsin, Superior

2,466 / 2,600 Public, 4-year 89% N/a 24

Research

Parameters

Project

Sources