Tt30 of the Club of Rome and its innovation potential for assuring the sustainability of our society...
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Transcript of Tt30 of the Club of Rome and its innovation potential for assuring the sustainability of our society...
tt30 of the Club of Romeand its innovation potential for assuring the
sustainability of our society
Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Ildiko TulbureUniversity “1 December 1918”, Alba Iulia, Romania
PD at the University of Technology Clausthal, Germany
tt30 of the Club of Rome and the Club of Rome
E-mail: [email protected]
© Tulbure 2007
CONTENT
1. General remarks about the Club of Rome and about tt30
2. tt30 projects 3. tt30-Web of the Problematique 4. Overcoming Technological Divides 5. Some selected results of the project work –
Sustainability in Europe? 6. Conclusions
© Tulbure 2007
1. General remarks about the Club of Rome
• Global think tank and catalyst for change
• 1972: CoR-report „The Limits to Growth“ -> incubator for environmental movement
• Long-term, interdisciplinary and holistic approach
• „World Problematique“: Complex set of interdependent challenges the world is facing
© Tulbure 2007
Founded in the year 2001 during the kick-off meeting
in Hamburg, Germany
Provide the perspective of the young generation on the World Problematique
Contribution to „Resolutique“ with concrete requests and proposals for solutions - projects
General remarks about tt30 of the Club of Rome
© Tulbure 2007
Participants of tt30
- Maximum 30 participants
- Age: 25 - 35
- Diverse Backgrounds (Academia, Business, Politics, NGO,...)
- From all around the world, covering Eastern & Western Europe, the Middle East, Asia, Africa, North & Latin America
© Tulbure 2007
Organisation of tt30- Using intensively the web-platform
- Leadership: Coordinating team reporting to the CoR Secretary General
- Close cooperation with the European Support Center in Vienna and the National Associations
- tt30 on national level - in Germany
- Annual Meetings: 2001 in Hamburg, Germanyuntil now 2002 in Valencia, Spain
2003 in Rome, Italy2004 in Amman, Jordan2005 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil2006 in Abuja, Nigeria
© Tulbure 2007
2. Most important tt30 - projects
1. Overcoming Technological Divides 2. Values Systems, Consumption Patterns and
Diversity
3. Knowledge Transfer Across Cultures: A Comparative Analysis of the
West, South East Asia & West Africa
4. Acceleration as a Threat to Sustainable Development
© Tulbure 2007
3. tt30 Web of the Problematique
• It is actually the tt30 perspective on the challenges of the world in 20 years perspective
• Makes this complex concept understandable
• Shows concretely how tt30 sees the World Problematique
© Tulbure 2007
tt30 Web of the Problematique
3 Fundamental dimensions
UNEQUAL ACCESSTO GOODS, INFORMATION
AND TECHNOLOGY
LACK OF
GOOD GOVERNANCE
CONFLICTS AND DISRUPTIONS OF
VALUE SYSTEMS
© Tulbure 2007
tt30 Web of Problematique: Further aspects & elements
UNEQUAL ACCESSTO GOODS, INFORMATION
AND TECHNOLOGY
LACK OF
GOOD GOVERNANCE
CONFLICTS & DISRUPTIONS OF
VALUE SYSTEMSGender inequality
Neglect ofthe commons
Flood and Quality of information
Apathy
Loss of identity
Violence
Lack ofhealthcare
Water scarcity
Basic needs
Conflicts over resources
Loss of Biodiversity
Migration
Brain DrainMilitary approach
Lack ofDemocracy
Renewable technologies
Neglect ofexternal costs
Intellectual property rights
Disrespect ofcultural differences
Lack of responsibility
Lack of accountability
Lack of transparency
Lack of legitimacy
Terrorism Int. political dominance
Consumption patterns
Consumptive lifestyles
Decrease ofresources °radation ofenvironment
Lack of and insufficiencies of
Education
Declineof traditional
values
Decreasingrespect of
human rights
Demographictransition
Poverty
Inappropriate division of political &
economic power
Inappropriateprocesses of
decision makingLack of
internationalsolidarity
Weakness of civil society
Shortcomings of market economy
Security vs.Civil Rights
Technological divides
Short termthinking
Lack ofwelfare
© Tulbure 2007
4. Overcoming Technological Divides
• tt30 project defined during the tt30 kick-off conference 2001 in Hamburg, Germany
• Covering several years• Interdisciplinary project• Guided by the fundamental principles of the CoR:
– Global perspective , holistic thinking and long-term perspective • Limited human, time and financial resources
Project team: Pauliina Arola (Finland), Christian Berg (Germany), Baker al-Hiyari (Jordan), Tadas Leoncikas (Lithuania), Michal Miedzinski (Poland), Peter-Olav Pleuß (Germany), Ildiko Tulbure (Romania/Germany), Ali Vali (USA/India), Aleksander Zidansek (Slovenia)
© Tulbure 2007
Why such a project? • The issue “Technological Divides” has been recognised as one
of the most important ones of the World Problematique.
• Technological Divides between societies as well as within each society
• Continuously increasing technological gaps because of fast progress in technology, quickly leaving more and more people behind
• The situation in the field of Divides is not very well known
• Better understanding of secondary effects of technological developments
• World Summit on Sustainable Development 2002 “No limits to Knowledge, but Limits to Poverty”
• World Summit on the Information Society, Geneva, 2003
• Digital Worlds, Paris, 2005
© Tulbure 2007
Goals of the project
• To analyse and evaluate existing Divides
• To understand what effects can Divides have
• To recognise appropriate strategies how to overcome the Divides.
• Structured in two main parts:
– First step: analysis and diagnosis of the existing situation in the field of Technological Divides i.e. access to technologies, ability to use, effective use together with potential impacts
– Second step: elaboration of strategies how to overcome Divides
© Tulbure 2007
Social and environm.impacts
Policy issues
Analysis and diagnosis(including values,
regional differences)
2001 2020How to bridge the gaps?
Education
Regionaldifferences
Infrastructure
Conclusions, Strategies andRecommendations
CoR Policy ... (e.g. NGOs)
Future paths, scenarios
Infrastructure
Education
Flow-chart
© Tulbure 2007
5. Some selected results of the project work – Sustainability in Europe
• A. Digital Divide in Europe
• B. Sustainability in the Information Society
• C. Holistic education for sustainable development
© Tulbure 2007
A. Digital Divide in Europe
• Is Digital Divide a theme for Europe?
• At first view Not a special one compared with the world-wide situation.
• Where do we stand?
• Europe - Africa - America - other selected countries
© Tulbure 2007
% of worlds internet hosts
Africa0.3%
Asia6.1%
Europe13.9%
Americas77.8%
Oceania1.9%
% of worlds internet users
Africa1.1%
Asia27.3%
Europe28.6%
Americas40.1%
Oceania2.9%
© Tulbure 2007
05
1015202530354045
Africa America Asia Europe Oceania
1999 2001 2003
Estimated PCs in the world per 100 inhabitants
© Tulbure 2007
Digital Divide in Europe - internal analysis
• By careful analysis of the situation: Divides between European societies and within societies between generations.
• Even within a country there are big regional differences concerning the Divides, particularly between big cities and rural areas.
• Gaps also between different educational levels.
© Tulbure 2007
Divides in Europe
Fully „on-line“
„On-line“
Moving forward
© Tulbure 2007
B. Sustainability in the Information Society• The emergence and use of ICT have beside primary desired
effects also secondary (negative) ones in all human activity fields and on the environment.
• With the present usage patterns of ICT the sustainability of our society will be put under question.
• Emerging the Information Society is necessary but does not assure per se the sustainability of our society because of rebound-effects in all human activity fields and on environment.– Reduction of energy consumption by using ICT?
– Less environmental impacts by using ICT?
– More welfare by using ICT?
• Emerging the Information Society in unequal way in the world will leave more and more people behind - African situation
© Tulbure 2007
C. Holistic education
• Education - key issue for the world sustainability !
• In his book "Continuity, Innovation and Change", HRH Prince Hassan, former President of the Club of Rome, pointed out the need for education as a key issue for achieving these three human goals: continuity, innovation, and change. These are the fundamentals of sustainable development of our society.
• Three dimensions of education are recognised: infrastructure, methodologies and values. All these three dimensions of education are of crucial importance for the educational process regardless about which region we are talking about. Frameworks (economic, politic, social, cultural) are, in our opinion, the bound elements between these dimensions.
• It is to be clarified how important are these three spheres for educational processes.
© Tulbure 2007
From tt30 for consideration to the CoR
• Life-Cycles in our Dynamic World
• Rebound effects
• Short-term thinking
• Education
• Lack of long-term Responsibility
• Acceleration
© Tulbure 2007
Networking & spreading our results
• Partnerships through project teams with other global organisations for emerging the tt30 innovation potential
• Several articles. For example: “An Agenda for the Young generation” in “Europe in Perspective of Global Change”, ed. Antoni Kuklinski, Warsaw 2003
• Book: Exploring a worthwhile Future for All
• Organising and participating in international conferences for spreading out the tt30 ideas related to sustainable development
University "1 Decembrie 1918" Alba Iulia, Romania,23th - 25th February, 2006
Kick-off conference of the Network for Sustainability Strategies, Monitoring and Management in South
Eastern Europe (NESSEE 06)
© Tulbure 2007
6. Conclusions
• tt30 is acting by its great innovation potential for assuring the sustainable development of our world
• There are different major problems regarding sustainability in different parts of the world.
• Technological Divides: a very complex and interdisciplinary field
• Divides in the world - qualitatively different• Rebound-effects are dangerous for the sustainable
development of our society• Global emerging the Information Society - is this the
sustainable way ?• Education - key issue regarding overcoming Divides and the
driving force for Sustainable Development
© Tulbure 2007
Thank you for your attention !
www.clubofrome.org/tt30
© Tulbure 2007
University "1 Decembrie 1918" Alba Iulia, Romania,23th - 25th February, 2006
Kick-off conference of the Network for Sustainability in South Eastern Europe
(NESSEE)Thursday, Feb. 23th: Official opening of the conference
Friday, Feb. 24th: Sustainable Development1. Sustainable Development and Society, Institutionalisation, Networks 2. Energy/Environmental Aspects and Sustainable Development, Initiatives 3. Economy/Educational Aspects and Sustainable Development, Initiatives
Saturday, Feb. 25th: Future working way Launching the Network for Sustainability in South Eastern Europe
© Tulbure 2007
Technological Divides - Standard definition
• Technological Divides: gaps between societies or specific societal groups in access as well as in ability to use and effective use of (new) technologies in practice.
• Problems here: with which eyes (from which part) do we look at the gaps? What is the cultural understanding for how to use technologies and for which goals?
© Tulbure 2007
Number of PCs per 1000 Inhabitants
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Be
lgiu
m
De
nm
ark
Ge
rma
ny
Fin
lan
d
Fra
nce
Gre
ece
Gre
at B
ritta
in
Italy
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
No
rwa
y
Au
stri
a
Po
lan
d
Po
rtu
ga
l
Ro
ma
nia
Ru
ssia
Sw
ed
en
Sw
itze
rla
nd
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
van
ia
Sp
ain
Tze
ch R
ep
ub
lic
Ukr
ain
e
Hu
ng
ary
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
© Tulbure 2007
05
101520253035404550
Africa America Asia Europe Oceania
1999 2000 2001
Mobile phone subscribers in the world per 100 inhabitants
© Tulbure 2007
Rebound-effects
• A case study using modelling and simulation with scenario development concerning possible rebound-effects due to use of ICT
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Percentage of use (1) (on-line-informing)
5% 50% 95% 95%
Percentage of use (2) (e-working) 5% 50% 95% 95%
Average distance to the workplaceof user (2)
100km
100km
100km
100km
Average per person paperconsumption of user (1)
0,166t
0,25t
0,166t
0,25t
© Tulbure 2007
CO2- emissions,in [Mt]
400
300
200
100
0
2000 2005Time
"CO2-Emissionen" : Szenario 4"CO2-Emissionen" : Szenario 3"CO2-Emissionen" : Szenario 2"CO2-Emissionen" : Szenario 1
Total primary energy consumption,in [GWh]
6
4.5
3
1.5
0
2000 2005Time
"Gesamt-Primärenergieverbrauch" : Szenario 4"Gesamt-Primärenergieverbrauch" : Szenario 3"Gesamt-Primärenergieverbrauch" : Szenario 2"Gesamt-Primärenergieverbrauch" : Szenario 1
1
2
1
4
2
43
3
Total mileage,in [Billions km]
1200
750
500
250
0
2000 2005Time
Gesamtfahrleistung : Szenario 4Gesamtfahrleistung : Szenario 3Gesamtfahrleistung : Szenario 2Gesamtfahrleistung : Szenario 1
Net energy consumption without motor vehicles,
in [MWh]
200
175
150
125
100
2000 2005Time
Nutzenergieverbrauch : Szenario 4Nutzenergieverbrauch : Szenario 3Nutzenergieverbrauch : Szenario 2Nutzenergieverbrauch : Szenario 1
1
2
3=4
12
3
4
© Tulbure 2007
Sustainability?
• For American/European countries - rebound-effects !• For African/Arabic countries: early stage of emerging the
Information Society• For American/European countries: how to use technological
applications without compromising sustainable development?• For African/Arabic countries: how to solve basic Technological
Divides: water supply, energy supply, infrastructure, Divides in environmental technologies? It does not make sense to give each child in an African country an e-mail-address without having electrical power supply or even food! Considering the trends in the population growth and GNP/capita it is to be expected that these divides will deepen.
• There are Divides in Europe as well as in other world regions - but there are qualitative differences !