Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005 Tsunami Warning and Tsunami Hazard Mitigation...
-
Upload
norman-parmiter -
Category
Documents
-
view
216 -
download
1
Transcript of Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005 Tsunami Warning and Tsunami Hazard Mitigation...
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Tsunami Warning and Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Efforts in Nicaragua
Wilfried Strauch, INETER, Managua
http://www.ineter.gob.ni/geofisica/tsunami/tsunami.html
- Tsunami causes
- Tsunami hazard estimation
- Warning system
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Tsunami en los 1990
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Nicaragua 1992
- Tsunami earthquakeMw=7.6- Very low seismic effect- No warning> 170 killed
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
1992
• No knowledge about tsunami hazard
• No seismic network
• No communications system
• No tsunami warning system
• No trained personnel
• No educated population
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Actions of INETER after 1992• Sept. 1992: of seismic monitoring, service 24x7 • 1993: Integration into PTWS, ITSU• Development seismic network
(1992:2 estaciones, 2005: 61 estaciones)• Development of Monitoring and Early Warning center• Development Information&Communications del Systems• Execution of projects on tsunami hazard• Development of sea gauge network• Pushing a Regional Warning System in CA • 2005 Seismic broad band network, Small seismic array, • 2005 Facilities for immediate information to population
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Tsunami sources in Nicaragua
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Tsunami Catalogue1500-2002 – 49 tsunamis in Central America 5 affected Nicaragua
1 desastrous en Nicaragua (1992)
Sources: Morales, 1992-2005; Molina, 1994, Fernández et al, 1999
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Funding
• After 1992 tsunami little interest of funding agencies (“low probability for another tsunami”)
• Participation of INETER in research projects• Additional funding by Nicaraguan goverment –
financial source for development of seismic monitoring and Tsunami warning system
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Basic research on Tectonics, structure, etc• After the 1992 tsunami – deeper earthquake and tsunami knowledge
for Nicaragua and CA due to a large number of research work and projects on subduction processes, tectonics, geology, volcanology, seismic source mechanisms, tsunami generation, ..
Especially:• NSF funded “Subduction factory”• DFG/Germany funded “Special research area”
• E.g. 2005 – temporary broad band network for crustal structure and seismicity studies. Nicaragua & Costa Rica. 46 stations .
With Boston Univ. & Brown Univ.
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Tsunami due to submarine landslide
Shaded relief map of multibeam bathymetry data showing the Jaco scarp produced by seamount subduction offshore Costa Rica. A faulted block occurs downslope ofthe main scarp, which seems to indicate that detached blocks creep along headwall faults without loosing their coherent structure. However, a slumped mass at the base of the headwall scarp indicates that blocks may eventually fail catastrophically. Ranero & Weinrebe, 2004
Source: GEOMAR, 2004
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Lake Managua: Tsunamis caused by volcanic explosion
Sources: Volcanic hazards in Nicaragua: Past, present, and future. A.Freundt, St.Kutterolf, H.-U.Schmincke, T.Hansteen, H.Wehrmann,W. Perez,, W. Strauch, Navarro, in preparaciónTsunami in Lake Managua, Nicaragua, triggered by a compositionally zoned plinian eruption, A. Freundt, St. Kutterolf, H. Wehrmann, H-U. Schmincke, W.Strauch,Conference, IAVCEI, Chile, 2004
Source of volcanic explosion which generated tsunami
Sampling points
Max. Height of waves :20 m
When?Aprox 2000 years ago
Foto: Section of Mateare in the low area Oeste de la West of Chiltepe peninsula.
Unit A A, fallout, product of discontinuous plinian activity
2)Mateare sand (MS) deposited by the tsunami,and
3) Unit B – massive fallout of pommes of the stable plinian phase of the eruption..
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Lake Nicaragua: Tsunami by volcano collapse ?Mombacho volcano:Prehistorical collapse. No evidences yet for ocurrence of tsunami.
Other possible sites:Momotombo volcanoConcepción volcano.
In process: Study on possible tsunami generation and propagation in Lake Nicaragua.
Mombacho Volcano1200 m
Isletas
Granadacity
Apoyo Caldera
Landslide,Collapse
Tsunami!?
5 km
Source: INETER-NGI-Project
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Tsunami hazard estimation
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Identification of high risk areas, “hot spots”
Height -> “Hazard”10 - 20 m low 5 - 10 m high < 5 m very highvery high
Corinto
Population density
Landscan 2004
Source:Strauch, 2005
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Corinto “Hot spot”
Corinto
Population:
Aprox. 10,000
Height: 4 msnm.
Evacuation route10-15 km !???
Save place
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Inundation maps based on numerical simulation, Pacific coast
(to be finished December 2005)
• Recollection of existing bathymetric data• Bathymetric mapping of Masachapa area• Digital elevation model of the coastal strip• Seismic source mechanism, 1992 tsunami
earthquake• Numerical simulation of tsunami generation
and propagation (TIME)• Inundation maps
Source: INETER-JICA-Project
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Corinto
San Juan del SurPuerto Sandino
Study areas – most populated places
Masachapa
Bathymetry
Source: INETER-JICA-Project, 2004-06
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Pilot Project: Tsunami disaster prevention in Masachapa area
Source: INETER-COSUDE Project, 2005-06
-Information and education
-Local hazard map;
-Save places, evacuation routes
-Tsunami signs
-Prevention measures for schools
-Installation of sirens
-Participation of local administration and population
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Alert System
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Alert system: Local tsunami
-Magnitud: > 7.0
-Location: Nicaraguan Pacific Ocean
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Local Tsunami – Alert System
*Earthquake->Tsunami
Seismic recording
Civil Defense – to local administrations, 10 min
Evacuation
wave arrives in 45 minutes!
Analysis – Seismic data centerAutomatic procedures:-Broad band sensor-Small seismic array-Virtual regional network
Radio, TV stations – to population, 2 min
Cellular phone –to local population, 2 min
10 min ?human factor
3 min
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Chinandega (El viejo)
1.- Venecia2.- Aposentillo3.- Jiquilillo4.- Aserraderos5.- Los Zorros6.- Padre Ramos7.- Mechapa8.- Punta Nata9.- Potosí
Chinandega (Corinto)
10.- Corinto11.- Isla del Cardón12.- Isla del Amor
Chinandega (El Realejo)
13.- Isla Maderas Negras14.- Isla Paredones15.- Paso Caballos
León
16.- El Tránsito 17.- Puerto Sandino18.- Salinas Grandes19.- Poneloya20.- Las Peñitas21.- Los Brasiles
Managua
22.- Salamina23.- Montelimar24.- Masachapa25.- Pochomil26.- San Diego27.- Gran Pacífica28.- Miraflores
Carazo
29.- Casares30.- La Boquita31.- Bocana de Masapa
Jinotepe
32.- Tipilapa33.- Huehuete34.- La Bocana
Rivas
35.- El Ostional36.- San Juan del Sur37.- El Menco38.- El Gigante39.- San Martín40.- Las Salinas41.- El Astillero42.- La Flor
(130,000) under risk
INETERINETER
CODECODE
DEFENSA CIVILDEFENSA CIVIL
90 kms
45 min
1
34
3837
23
4
65
87
9
1011
1213
14
15
16
17
18
19
202122
2324
2526
2728
2930
3132
33
3536
39
404142
Civil Defense Communications SystemSource Defensa Civil, 2005
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
-Alert messenger to PC screen of radio/TV presenters (under testing)
-SMS cell phone to decision maker (under testing)
-SMS cell phone to large sectors of population (under development)
New communication methods(in development)
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Thank you !
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Towards a Regional Tsunami Warning System in Central America
Wilfried Strauch, INETER, Managua
with support from:
CEPREDENAC
INSIVUMEH – Guatemala;
SNET- El Salvador;
OVSICORI, UCR, CASC-Costa Rica;
UPA- Panama;
COPECO-Honduras.
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
“Hot Spots” Tsunami CA
Corinto
PanamáPuerto Armuelles
Puntarenas
El Triunfo
Boca del Toro
Bilwi
El Bluff/BluefieldsSan Carlos
- Low profile of the coast; -high population concentration
Hight -> “Hazard”10 - 20 m low 5 - 10 m high < 5 m very highvery high
Colón
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Regional program for a tsunami warning system in Central America• Proposal of INETER (2003) to CEPREDENAC, based on experience in Nicaragua
• Adopted in 2005
• Creation of national warning systems• Every national WS obtains data from all other countries, in
real time• Every national WS transmits its warning messages to all other
countries• A variety of technical communications measures are tobe used• A very redundant system
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
The 2004 Tsunami in South Asia stimulated:
• Actions of CEPREDENAC (Regional Center for Disaster Prevention)
• Tsunami hazard studies and education measures in Costa Rica
• Interest of Emergency Commissions in all CA countries
• Meetings of the relevant institutions of all CA countries
• More interest of funding agencies
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Activities in CA towards a Tsunami Warning System, 2005
- Meeting of body of Directors of CEPREDENAC,Kobe, Decision about a strategic meeting
- Strategic meeting on Tsunami WS, in San Salvador, - Decision on program Regional Tsunami WS
- Tsunami Workshop, 25-27Abril, Managua
Presentation of immediate actions and project profiles
- Workshop on digital seismic data acquisition and processing
Training for data seismic data exchange and virtual networks
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
National Warning Centers
• Consider the threat of local tsunamis: The local tsunami threat is more efficient using the national capacities of seismic and hidrografic monitoring and using local communications methods to the population.
• Independent alert for regional eventss : For the detection of a potentional regional threat a single seismic station can be sufficient (e.g. with TREMORS software).
• Interpretation of the messages of PTWC : It is national responsability to interprete the inforemation or warning messages of PTWC and to decide how to act on them.
• Dissemination of alert messages: Only the national centers can cooperate efficiently with national and local authorities to make sure that the warning messages are distribute rapidly to the areas under risk and to establish evacuation plans.
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Alert system- Formation of a technical steering committee- Formation of National Warning Centers- Integration in PTWS of all CA countries (missing: Panama, Honduras)- Elaboration of national communications plans, preliminary
Monitoring and communications network - Exchange of seismic data in real time, virtual seismic networks
Projects- Elaboration of project proposals for long an medium term development
Immediate actions, planned for 2005
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Possibles Projects
Monitoreo y Alerta.Improvement/installation of a seismic broad band network, satelital. Installation of a sea gauges, including off shore. Information on alternative tsunami detection methodsHazard mapping. Hazard mapping, tsunami simulation, inundation maps. “Hot spot” = population centers under high risk. Factibility studies on special protection measures for “Hot Spots”. Studies of tsunami causes – earthquakes, volc.explosiones, submarine slidesInformación y Educación. Alternative measures for information and education of population
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Muchas Gracias!