Tsunami-Prone Source Mechanisms in the Mediterranean ... · by Okada (1985). regard the sea...

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Tsunami-Prone Source Mechanisms in the Mediterranean

Region for Global Tsunami-Modelling System in Joint Research

Center (JRC)

Ergin ULUTAŞ1 , Alessandro Annunziato2

[email protected] [email protected]

1 Kocaeli University, Department of Geophysical Engineering, Kocaeli, TURKEY

2Institute for the Protection and the Security of the Citizen, EC-Joint Research Center, Ispra, Italy

7th International Tsunami Symposium, JRC, Ispra, ITALY, 12-14 September 2016

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1.Procedure of tsunami simulationa) Setting of fault parametersb) Calculation of the sea floor’s vertical deformationc) Initial form of the tsunamid) Calculation of tsunami propagation and run-up

2. The importance of source parameters on tsunami simulations

3. Objectives in determining the pre-defined sources

4. Pre-defined sources in Mediterranean region

5. Case Studies in Mediterranean region

6. Problems in determining pre-defined sources

7. Future Challenges

8. Open questions and Comments

Presentation Contents



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a) Setting of fault parameters

● Location and geometric features of the fault plane● Dimension of the fault plane● Slip angle and amount

Strike

Strike

Slip direction

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1.Procedure of tsunami simulation


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b) Calculation of sea floors vertical deformation

The seafloor deformation is calculated based on the elastic fault plane theory

by Okada (1985).

regard the sea floor’s vertical deformation as the initial ups and downs of the sea surface

c) Inıtial form of the tsunami

d) Calculation of tsunami propagation and run-up

Simulate the movement of the tsunami numerically by long wave theory (shallow water)


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Choosing the nodal plane !

2. The importance of source parameters on tsunami simulations


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Faults and Central Moment Tensor Solutions

Pure Strike Slip00 or 1800

Normal Fault -900

Reverse Fault 900

Pure Strike Slip00 or 1800

Reverse Fault 700 or 1100

Normal Fault -700 or -1100

Reverse (left lateral) 200 or 700

Normal (left lateral) 200 or -700


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Type of the plate boundaries


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Case Study for 13 January 2007

EAST OF KURIL ISLAND (Mw:8.1 Depth:10)

Strike: 93

Dip:86

Rake:-106

Strike: 348

Dip:16

Rake:-16

Observing point


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3. Objectives in determining the pre-defined sources

The objective is to decrease the elapsed time for tsunami warning and to simulate heights

close to the real heights in shore

JMA has been reducing time for

the issuance of tsunami warning

(Hasegawa, 2007)



How the sources could be used in JRC System

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4. Pre-defined sources in Mediterranean region

Predefined Tsunami Sceanerios

Kinematics of the Region

(Serpelloni, 2007)

Papers related to

Seismic Sources

Tectonic of the Region Seismological Data and Analysis

Plate Boundaries

(Bird, 2003) Moment Tensor Solutions

(Ponderelli et al., 1995)

(Lorito et al., 2008)

(Tiberti et al., 2009)

(Marotto et al., 2007)

(Papazachos et al., 2001)

(Yolsal et al., 2007)

P and T Deformation Axes

(Vannucci et al., 2004)

Epicentral Distribution of Earthquakes

National Earthquake Information Center

Seismicity and Seismic Hazard

(Marotto et al., 2007

Focal Mechanism

Historical Tsunami Earthquakes

(National Geophysical Data Center)

Surface Deformation

(Okada, 1985)

Bathymetry Data,ETOPO-2

(http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov)

Wave Model

Swan Code (Mader, 1988)

JRC-Tsunami Analysisi Tool

(Annunziato, 2007)

Tsunami Analysis


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Tectonic sketch of the Mediterranean Region (Serpelloni, 2007)

Plate boundaries and Tectonic of the Region7th International Tsunami Symposium, JRC, Ispra, ITALY, 12-14 September 2016

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Kinematic (Serpelloni, 2007)

Plate boundaries and Tectonic of the Region

Sketch of the major kinematics and tectonics features.

Africa-Eurasia kinematic boundary conditions predicted by geologically and some geodetically


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Previous Studies(Fault Mechanisms)

Serpelloni et al., 2007

Frohlich (1992, 2001) ternary diagram


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Plate boundaries

Epicenter of earthquakes

Depth of earthquakes

Magnitude of earthquakes

Historical Tsunamis

Seismic Sources

GIS Applications

(Plate boundaries and Historical Tsunamis)7th International Tsunami Symposium, JRC, Ispra, ITALY, 12-14 September 2016

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Previous Studies

Tectonic and Tsunamigenic Areas

Lorito et al., 2008

S. Yolsal, T. Taymaz and A. C. Yalçiner, 2007 Papazachos et al., 1998 Tiberti et al., 2008


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Previous Studies

(Mediterranean seismicity)

An atlas of Mediterranean seismicity(GIANFRANCO VANNUCCI (1), SILVIA PONDRELLI (1), ANDREA ARGNANI

(2),ANDREA MORELLI (1), PAOLO GASPERINI (3) and ENZO BOSCHI (3)

(1) Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, Italy

(2) Geologia Marina, ISMAR-CNR, Bologna, Italy

(3) Dipartimento di Fisica, Università degli Studi di Bologna, Italy

Presented a description of the characteristics of the seismic deformation occurring in the AlpineMediterranean Belt

They mapped seismic activity using several catalogs (Harward CMT, RCMT, ETH, and EMMA) Earthquake size and source geometry were evaluated from catalogs of earthquake mechanisms Depth of

earthquakes They controlled fault plane solutions where mechanisms based on waveform fitting are missing. They also grouped the focal mechanisms together to yield average mechanisms and enable synoptic wievs. The contribution of this paper is to give a panoramic view of the active tectonics as imaged by focal

mechanisms.


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Previous Studies

(Fault Mechanisms)

The main deformation areas


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Previous Studies(Fault Mechanisms)

Sum of the moments tensors (grid – one degree)

The average strain tensors induced by earthquakes is

given by

Kostrov (1974)


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Previous Studies

(Fault Mechanisms)

Sum of the moments tensors (grid – one degree)Horizontal projections of P and T deformation axes


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Previous Studies

(Fault Mechanisms)

Pondrelli, 1999

Frohlich (1992, 2001) ternary diagram

(Moratto et al., 2000)


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Predefined Seismic Sources


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Predefined Seismic Sources

Overlaid study with JRC grids and EMMA catalog


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Why we have prefered seismic zones ?

!! !! !! !!!! !! ! !! !! !! !! !! ! ! !!! !! !!!! ! !!!! !! ! !! !! ! !! ! ! !! !!!! ! !!!!!!! ! !! ! !!!!!! ! ! !! !! !! !!!! !!! ! !! !!! !! !! ! !!! ! !!!! ! ! !! !!! !!! ! ! ! ! !! !!!! ! !!!!! !! !! ! ! !!! !!!! ! !!! !! !! !! ! !!!! ! ! !! !! ! !!!! ! ! ! !!! !!!! ! ! !!!!! ! ! !!!!!! !! !! ! !! ! !!!!! !

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Vannucci grid points!

Legend

Moratto et al., 2007; Lorito et al., 2007

Legend

Pondrelli et al., 1999


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!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!

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!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Legend

Moratto et al., 2007; Lorito et al., 2007

Legend

Pondrelli et al., 1999


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Strike parameters for Mediterranean Sea7th International Tsunami Symposium, JRC, Ispra, ITALY, 12-14 September 2016

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Dip parameters for Mediterranean Sea7th International Tsunami Symposium, JRC, Ispra, ITALY, 12-14 September 2016

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Rake parameters for Mediterranean Sea7th International Tsunami Symposium, JRC, Ispra, ITALY, 12-14 September 2016

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Challenges and Future Studies for improving the reliability of pre-defined

sourses in Mediterrenean Sea

Focal mechanisms defines a set of two possible orthogonal fault planes

Which of the orthogonal fault planes is in fact the fault plane ??

However, P and T axes are correspond to the maximum shortening and

extensional strain directions for these shear faults (Zoback et al., 1989).

As the focal mechanism gives information on the faulting type, the relative

magnitudes of Sv, SHmax and Shmin are known

The plunges (pl) of P-, B-, and T- are used to assign the appropriate stress

regime to the data record


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30, 4 July 2013, Roma, Italia Institito Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy, 23 September 2013

Focal mechanisms defines a set of two possible orthogonal fault planes

Which of the orthogonal fault planes is in fact the fault plane ??

However, P and T axes are correspond to the maximum shortening andextensional strain directions for these shear faults (Zoback et al., 1989).

As the focal mechanism gives information on the faulting type, the relativemagnitudes of Sv, SHmax and Shmin are known

The plunges (pl) of P-, B-, and T- are used to assign the appropriate stressregime to the data record


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12 M

arch

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Tectonic regime assignment (Zoback, 1992).

Plunges of Axes

P/S1 B/S2 T/S3 Regime SHmax Azimutha

pl > 52 pl < 35 NF azim. of B-axis

40 < pl < 52 pl < 20 NS azim. of T-axis + 90°

pl < 40 pl > 45 pl < 20 SS azim. of T-axis + 90°

pl < 20 pl > 45 pl < 40 SS azim. of P-axis

pl < 20 40 < pl < 52 TS azim. of P-axis

pl < 35 pl > 52 TF azim. of P-axis

aFor some overcoring and hydraulic testing of preexisting fractures m measurements, the magnitudes of the full stress

tensor are determined and the SHmax azimuth can be calculated directly from the eigenvectoors of the tensor.

However, the stress regime characterizatioin in these cases is still based on the plunges of the principal axes.


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12 M

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S1, S2, S3 in terms of Sv, SHmax and Shmin


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12 M

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Maximum Horizontal Stress Axes (Shmax) determined

from the plunges of the P, T, B axes for CMT Catalogue.

Ulutas et al., 2013. INGV, Rome, September 2013


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The styles of faultings determined from the plunges of the P, T, B axes for CMT Catalogue.



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The styles of faultings determined from the plunges of the P, T, B axes for RCMT Catalogue



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What we expectWhat we see

Expectation and Reality


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Historical Earthquakes in Mediterrenean region


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Historical Earthquakes and 2D visualisations


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Thank you


Tsunami-Prone Source Mechanisms in the Mediterranean ... · by Okada (1985). regard the sea...

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