Tsunami Hazards on the East and Gulf Coasts
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Tsunami Hazards on the East and Gulf Coasts
Dr. Annie Kammerer, P.E.NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
RIC 2009
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Overview
• Research Goals
• Overview of program
• Available products
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Research Goals
• Better understanding for all US coasts• Development of a source database• Integration of landslide modeling• Input for probable maximum tsunami
(PMT) hazard levels• PTHA (probabilistic) where appropriate• Incorporation into regulatory guidance
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NRC RESEARCH
Pacific Coast
East Coast
Gulf Coast
Hawaii
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Damage comes from…• Wave inundation
• Drawdown (important for plants)
• Floating debris
• Scour
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Size of Tsunami (m)
Rec
urre
nce
Inte
rval
(yr
)
(ann
ual p
roba
bilit
y of
exc
eede
nce)
-1
1
10
100
1000
10000
1
10 100 1000
Distant Earthquakes
Local Earthquakes
Landslides
Asteroid Impact
Volcanoes
Idealization of size-frequency relationship of tsunami sources
Power et al., 2005
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Sources Addressed
• Near-field seismic
• Far-field seismic
• Near-field landslide
• Far-field landslide
• NOT:– Asteroid Impacts– Volcanic
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Research Plan
1. Data collection, review of current state of knowledge, interpretation of data, basic modeling (completed - first USGS report)
2. Targeted field work, additional analyses, additional modeling (second USGS report)
3. Updating NOAA models for landslide sources, global modeling
4. Hazard map development
5. PTHA
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Data collection, review of current state of knowledge, interpretation of data, basic modeling (2008) ML082960196
(IJMG special publication)
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Near Field Landslides
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Currituck Landslide
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Currituck Landslide
0 100 200 300 KM
-40
-20
0
20
40
Met
ers
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Existing Data
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Far-Field Landslide Sources EUS
• Cumbre Vieja, Canary Islands
• Glaciated margins of northern Europe and Canada– Storegga landslide, Norway– Eastern Scotian margin (0.15 MYA)– 1929 Grand Banks landslide
• The mid-Atlantic ridge
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Canary and Hawaiian Islands
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Lituya Bay
1,700 feet
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• West of Gibraltar– 1755 Lisbon– 1761 Earthquake
and Tsunami
• The Northeast
Caribbean– Puerto Rico Trench– Hispaniola Trench– Northern Panama
Far-Field Seismic Sources
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Caribbean Plate
Far-Field Seismic Sources
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Modeling Sources
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Southern Caribbean Subduction Zone
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Global Modeling & Mapping
• NOAA to use UGSG source information to add landslide capability that works with global (MOST) model
• NOAA modeling addresses “linear” part of analyses• Site-specific inundation modeling performed
separately
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Advanced Methods
• PTHA = Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments
• Focus of significant US research efforts
• Techniques analogous to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), which are the basis of US NRC seismic hazard guidance
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Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard
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Questions