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Tsunami Early Warning System:SOPs and Communication Strategies
Initiatives byPakistan Meteorological Department
presenterZahid Rafi
Dated: 08 Oct, 2009Conference on working together for disaster risk reduction
Contents
• Mechanism of tsunami generation and propagation
• Pakistan tsunami hazards and risk• Establishment of Seismic Monitoring Network• Development of tsunami warning centers.• End To End tsunami warning and emergency
response.• Timeline and SOPs for TWCs. • Tsunami warning systems and support tools
TSUNAMI GENERATION MECHANISM AND PROPAGATION
• Large earthquakes along subduction zones in sea can generate tsunami
• These subduction zones are along boundaries of tectonic plates
• Largest earthquakes have taken place along these subduction zones.
• A general criteria for tsunami generation is:M>7.5Depth < 50km
Tectonic Plates and Subduction zones
Well known subduction zone Magnitude > 8.5 Sumatra - Andaman zone
History of tsunami along Indo-Pak Coast line
• November 326 BC earthquake near the Indus delta /Kutch region that set off massive sea waves in the Arabian Sea
• The arrival of Vascude Gama’s in 1524 coincided with a violent sea quake and tsunami that caused alarm at Debul and Portuguese port.
• 16 June 1819 Rann of Kuchch earthquake M 7.7, A tsunami from Arabian sea Surged across the Rann of Kuch.• 1845 June 19, India, Kutch. “The sea rolled up the Koree • In Arabian Sea Magnitude 8.2 earthquake (Makran
Earthquake (1945) caused a tsunami along coastal areas of Pakistan and India.Over 4000 deaths estimated
Up Gradation and Strengtheningof
Seismic Monitoring Network:A basic Component
forTsunami Early Warning System
Communication System
Projects for Strengtheningof
Tsunami Early Warning SystemSupported by
UNESCO/IOC
• Three Tide Gauge Systems for Ormara, Gwadar and Keti Bandar
• Satellite Communication System for data transmission• Establishment of Broadcast Centre for Mass Media at PMD
Islamabad.• Data Acquisition and Analysis System at central station
Karachi.• Development of Area Specific Tsunami propagation and
inundation model.• Soft Component: Tsunami and coast disaster risk reduction and preparedness at
the community level.
Project Details
Tsunami Hazard Map for PakistanSupported by
Asian Disaster Reduction Centre (ADRC), JapanObjectives:Objectives:Preparation of Tsunami Hazard Map Preparation of Tsunami Hazard Map Community Risk Awareness programCommunity Risk Awareness programTo enhance the capacity to train local experts.To enhance the capacity to train local experts.To identify the problems and improve the tsunami To identify the problems and improve the tsunami warning systemwarning system
SeisComP3 System
Global: Earthquake: Monitoring: Processing: Analysis
Map Showing Locations of Seismic Stations
Real Time Wave-form Data
GUITAR(Decision Making Tool)
Strategy: Standard Operating Procedure for
Issuance of Tsunami warning
Sr. No Time (Min) Activity ACTION COMMUNICATION
1 00 EARTHQUAKE ALERT Duty staff Alert each person at disk. Each of the shift duty person is clearly defined of their work.
2 05EARTHQUAKE AND / ORTSUNAMI BULLETIN NO-1(Preliminary analysis)
Use criteria for evaluation of Tsunami threat which includes magnitude location depth etc1- If below threshold Earthquake bulletin2- In case of crossing threshold Tsunami Advisory
One staff member deputed to communicate the bulletin to the agencies NDMA, NAVY, KPT, MSA, MEDIA etc.
Magnitude ≥ 7.5Depth < 50 KmLocation in between Latitude 22oN and aboveLongitude 55oE to 80oE
3 06 Tide gauge data would be received from tide gauge network.
This data will be used for confirmation of tsunami generation or otherwise.
4 08 1- Re-evaluation of Parameters starts before issuance of 2nd bulletin.2- Tsunami travel time estimation starts.
Duty personal are deputed to compute the revised earthquake parameters. Based on revised parameters 2nd bulletin will be for confirmation or cancellation.One person is assigned special task to calculate the time to reach shoreline using tables accounting for location depth and magnitude criteria.
NATIONAL SEISMIC MONITORING AND TSUNAMI WARNING CENTERPAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURESREGIONAL/ LOCAL TSUNAMI
4 08 1- Reevaluation of Parameters starts before issuance of 2nd bulletin.2- Tsunami travel time estimation starts.
Duty personal are deputed to compute the revised earthquake parameters. Based on revised parameters 2nd bulletin will be for confirmation or cancellation.One person is assigned special task to calculate the time to reach shoreline using tables accounting for location depth and magnitude criteria.
5 10 Tsunami bulletin No-02 (Alert)Annex-4(A)and Annex -5Or(Cancellation)
Automatic evaluation is revised and bulletin is issued. If parameters are above threshold level warning will be issued. As impact time is calculated above this bulletin defines impact time for all coastal cities.If Parameters are not satisfying the threshold value a cancellation of the Tsunami Bulletin will be issued
Communicated to all agencies with clear message about warning and time of impact.
6 12 1. Numerical models2. Sea level data
Numerical models are developed with pre-planned scenarios in order to compute arrival time.Continuous monitoring of sea level data obtained from tide gauge network.
14 Decision making for the issuance of Tsunami bulletin No-03
Revised magnitude, Depth, Location, Focal parameters are combined with sea level data to make decision about upgrading or downgrading the warning.
Careful study of all the available parameters will enable the duty seismologist to make this decision of Upgradation or downgrading or even cancellation of the Tsunami Bulletin No-02
7 15 Tsunami bulletin No-03(Warning)Annex-5
Contains the data of wave arrival time based upon tide gauge data and numerical models.
ToAll agenciesDG Met briefed about the situation and revised parameters or cancellation
Contd…
Earthquake & Tsunami Disaster in Pakistan
(A Research Study)
The study area was divided into 19 zones in which 1 to 15 are seismic zones, 16 to 18 are faults zones and zone 19 is exclusively for Rann of Kachch (Allah Band fault)
Makran Subduction zone
Extended portion of compression zone
Allah Band
Murray Ridge
Kirther Ranges
Pab & Ornach faults
Seismotectonic of the study area
Murray Ridge
MAXIMUM TSUNAMI HEIGHTS ALONG the COAST
Time (S)
Time (S)
Time (S)
Time (S)
Tsunami Time Line Map
Travel Times & Heights ObservationPoints
Latitude(N)
Longitude(E)
ArrivalTime (Sec)
TsunamiHeight (m)
Karachi 67.14 24.6 7200 2.8
Ormara 64.65 25.1 2200 9.3
Pasni 63.38 25.2 2900 8.5
Gwadar 62.33 25.1 1550 8.8
Jiwani 61.86 24.9 1100 8.9