Tse trend analysis_2014

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Trend Analysis and Desktop Research The Smart Entrepreneur

Transcript of Tse trend analysis_2014

Trend Analysisand Desktop Research

The Smart Entrepreneur

Trend analysis

• Trends describe where new fashions, consumer behaviours, industry developments, social changes or customer needs are forming and gaining momentum.

• Trend analysis is one of several means of identifying what customers are looking for and profitable potential markets (and, hopefully, spotting them at the right time).

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Why do this exercise?

This exercise is a starting point for exploring and identifying:

• Unmet customer preferences >> areas for which a new product could be devised to solve a problem or meet a desire/need

• Potential markets that could be receptive to your existing innovation• Applications: ways to shape and refine your innovation into a specific

application based on a genuine, sizable market need (rather than your own personal tastes)

In later phases you can test the ideas and assumptions that you formed inthis activity to further adapt your product/service offer to genuine customer needs.

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Why do this exercise?

Whether you are:

• seeking possible opportunities/market gaps for which to develop an innovation; or

• Looking for information to help you identify a suitable market for your existing innovation

• Looking for top-down data as part of your Entrepreneurial Market Research (see IE&D Toolbox)

you need to base your thinking on the tastes and needs of a tangible and sizable market, not assume that something you would buy yourself will also appeal to many customers.

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How to identify trends

Use a PEST analysis to observe trends:

• Political

• Economic

• Social

• Technological

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Political

• Public policy trends (e.g. Policy focus on environmental problems, education & training, health, help for the disadvantaged, promote enterprise, promote culture, promote technology)

• New laws & regulations (e.g. ban on smoking in public, CO2 emissions, congestion charging, industry deregulation, employment laws, health and safety laws, trade and commerce rules, taxation & savings)

• Government spending plans (e.g. money for defence, education, infrastructure & systems, etc.)

• Political stability, voter sentiment

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Economic

• Economic cycle (growth, recession, recovery)• Income/wealth levels; poverty levels, disposable income• Resource scarcity/surplus

(e.g. time, labour, liquidity, materials, services, suppliers, infrastructure)• Birth of new industries/markets• Decline of old industries• Changes in the way an industry is organised (supply chain, value chain, new

methods or technologies)• Inefficient financial markets• Indicators

(e.g.: price/inflation trends, business sector sales/profit figures, growth rate, currency exchange rates, labour costs, debt levels, customer preference and market research surveys)

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Social

• Demographic change: age, urban/rural living, growth patterns, career and retirement patterns

• Education levels

• Cultural attitudes(e.g. gender roles, family, diversity)

• Use of leisure time (sports, games, travel, culture)

• Work trends (e.g.: flexible/mobile working, childcare needs, time constraints, commuting, work from home, company size)

• Public mood (optimism, anxiety, entrepreneurial spirit, individualism, social/community engagement, conservatism, desire for change)

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Technological

• New research

• Recent technological developments/inventions

• Impact of new technologies on: automation, cost structures, supply chain, communication, specialised methods, service delivery, etc.

• Faster, cheaper, safer, smaller, more accurate, more efficient, etc.

• Pace of technological change

• Adoption cycles - pace at which consumers adopt a new technology

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Desktop research resources to spot trends

• Publications – newspapers, trade journals, market research reports, social research papers, Factiva

• Websites – government agencies, think-tanks, Office of Statistics, trade associations, fashion and entertainment blogs… search engines!

• Company reports – product segment sales

• Speak to experts in the sector you are investigating

• Look around you, note repeating events, changes in sentiment, then look for figures/studies to back up your observations

>> Also take advantage of the Open Data initiatives of various governments and NGOs (UK, US, World Bank, city councils, and many more)

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If you are looking for a business opportunity...

• Does any trend - or combination of trends - generate needs or desires that have not been met by the market

• and can you devise a new product or service to meet these needs/desires?

• Refer to ‘Idea Generation’ slides in the IE&D Toolbox

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If you are looking for applications for a given product or technology...

• Can your technology be turned into an application that meets requirements/desires evidenced by these trends? Which one(s)?

• Think of as many applications as possible, ranging from the more complex or specialist niche to the simpler or more standardised (mass consumer).

• Refer to the ‘Idea Generation’ slides in IE&D Toolbox for a way to do this

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Trend examples of different kinds

• 24-hour society• ‘Money rich, time poor’• Environmental issues and global warming• Globalisation• Desire for ‘gadgets’• Increasing design- and style-consciousness• Convergence of Internet, communication links, mobile & wireless,

etc.• Increased government spending and investment• Attitudes toward a certain sector or activity (e.g. mistrust of banks in

2008)

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Solution example: Designing to meet poorly addressed needs

Limited space (resource constraints) and the growing use of IT in schools

led to design of a desk incorporating a flip-up computer monitor and keyboard

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Solutions: Matching new technologies to user needs or desires

The ‘on-the-go’ and ‘multi-tasking’ or ‘hands-free’ culture, the increasing desire for ‘connectivity’ everywhere

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Solutions: New business models that accelerate a growing market…

Growing market for travel:

Customer willingness to acceptfewer frills for cheaper fares Dell: growing market for PCs –

harness the growth by offering a direct selling model that lowers prices to consumers

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Solutions: take advantage of new regulations or legislation

Patientline developed a communication tool for hospitals that offers (revenue-generating) access to telephone and entertainment for patients, while also fulfilling NHS, Dept. of Health and GMC guidelines on the delivery and availability of health information to patients

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Solutions: create or import new experiences

Sushi bars: a fresher and healthier version of fast food for a more sophisticated customer; widespread in Japan but relatively unknown in the UK until the spread of the Yo! Sushi chain

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• PEST is a useful starting point to identify trends and spot business opportunities, as it encourages you to look across sectors and make comparisons and links with your own business area.

• Use a trend analysis if you want to think of areas in which a new technology could be applied, spot opportunities for which you might create a business solution or reality-check an existing idea in the light of current trends.

• You can use the techniques in the ‘Idea Generation’ exercise in the IE&D Toolbox to help your thinking process.

Conclusion and deliverables

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