TSCAPE: A Time Series of Consistent Accounts for Policy Evaluation
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TSCAPE: A Time Series of Consistent Accounts for Policy Evaluation Edward J. Balistreri Alan K. Fox U.S. International Trade Commission Washington, DC
description
TSCAPE: A Time Series of Consistent Accounts for Policy Evaluation. Edward J. Balistreri Alan K. Fox U.S. International Trade Commission Washington, DC. Introduction. Construct consistent social accounts for United States Cover 1978 to 2001 Aggregate to two-digit SIC level - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of TSCAPE: A Time Series of Consistent Accounts for Policy Evaluation
TSCAPE: A Time Series of Consistent Accounts for Policy
Evaluation
Edward J. BalistreriAlan K. FoxU.S. International Trade
CommissionWashington, DC
Introduction
Construct consistent social accounts for United States Cover 1978 to 2001 Aggregate to two-digit SIC level
Draw on variety of data sources Calibrate data for internal consistency Preserve integrity of trade, GDP data
Data Sources for TSCAPE:U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Value added by factor and sector (approx. 2-digit) Benchmark IO tables (1982, 1987, 1992, 1997) National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA)
Trade Policy Information System (TPIS) Trade by TSUS, Schedule B (1978-1988) Trade by HTS 10-digit (1989-2001)
Scope of TSCAPE
Defined by quantity index for GDP by industry (GDPI) Available at 2-digit level From 1977 to present
Defined by TPIS Highly disaggregated Available from 1978 to present
Discontinuity in Trade Data
1978 to 1988: TSUS, Sch. B to SIC 4 digit Based on DOC concordance Only half of lines originally mapped to SIC DOC concordance substantially revised and
extended by authors 1989 to 2001: HTS10 to SIC 4 digit
DOC concordance used unchanged No handshake between TSUS and HTS10 Discontinuity between 1988 and 1989
TSCAPE Use Matrix Architecture
C+I+G Use
Value Added
Gross Make
Gross Output
Me
rch
an
dis
e
Tra
de
Final Demand
Fac
tors
G
ood
s
Industry
Srv
.
Tra
de
TSCAPE Make Matrix Architecture
Make Gross Output
Gross Make
Indu
strie
s Goods
Construction of Social Accounts Calculate Complete VA matrix with GDPI data on factor
payment shares by industry Aggregate GDP is then consistent with NIPA
Calculate real intermediate purchases by sector If qUse available, If not, use interpolated BEA IO data
Build Make matrix Convert to coefficients, interpolate Multiply by real gross output from GDPI
Calculate final demand components
1996 real iii GDPqVAGDP
1996igiig UseqUseTgtUse ,,
Establish Consistency
Value added matrix: no changes Merchandise trade: no changes
Minimize loss function subject to Zero profit condition No excess demand Income balance
Optimization Problem: VariablesFree Variables
GOi Gross output by industry
IUseg,d Final demand by commodity and category (except trade)
Φi Scalar for total intermediate demand by industry
Fixed Parameters
TgtIUseg,d Target final demand by commodity and category
TgtUseg,i Target intermediate use of commodity by industry
Tgtξd Aggregate final demand mix from NIPA accounts
Optimization Problem: Specification
d g dgdg dgg dgd
g i igigiig
g d dgdgdg
TGTIUSETGTTGTIUSETGTIUSETGT
TGTUSETGTUSETGTUSE
TGTIUSEIUSETGTIUSE
21
21
21
,,,
,,,
,,,
Subject to
f i ifd g dg
d dgi igii igi
f ifg igii
ValueAddedIUSE
IUSETGTUSEGOMakeCoef
ValueAddedTGTUSEGO
,,
,,,
,,
Resulting Baseline
Labor’s value share of GDP averages 58% Imports’ share of GDP grew from 7% to 16% Exports’ share of GDP grew from 6% to 12% Protection fell dramatically in some sectors
Electronic Equipment (down by 86%) Industrial Machinery (down by 88%)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
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6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Bil
lio
ns
of
19
96
do
lla
rs
Labor Income
Other Value Added
Gross Domestic ProductBillions of 1996 Dollars
Aggregate Imports and ExportsBillions of 1996 Dollars
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
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1600
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Bill
ion
s o
f 1
99
6 d
olla
rs
export import
Relative Growth of Trade and IncomeIndex, 1978 = 1.0
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Ind
ex
(1
97
8 e
qu
als
on
e)
GDP Imports Exports
For More Information
[email protected] http://www.georgetown.edu/faculty/ejb37/
[email protected] http://www-personal.umich.edu/~alanfox
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