trzcinski 12 12 11 ie [tryb zgodno [ci] · 2012-04-05 · Impact Evaluation Seminar Warsaw,...
Transcript of trzcinski 12 12 11 ie [tryb zgodno [ci] · 2012-04-05 · Impact Evaluation Seminar Warsaw,...
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2011
Example from enterprise Example from enterprise Example from enterprise Example from enterprise
Rafał Trzciński
Example from enterprise Example from enterprise Example from enterprise Example from enterprise support in Polandsupport in Polandsupport in Polandsupport in Poland
Impact Evaluation Seminar
Warsaw, 12.12.2011
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Purpose of the evaluationPurpose of the evaluationPurpose of the evaluationPurpose of the evaluation
� Estimation of the impact of grants on growth of SMEs in Poland.Estimation of the impact of grants on growth of SMEs in Poland.Estimation of the impact of grants on growth of SMEs in Poland.Estimation of the impact of grants on growth of SMEs in Poland.
� Measure covered by the study:Improvement of competitiveness
of SMEs through investments (Measure 2.3) implemented within
Sectoral Operational Programme Improvement of the
Competitiveness of Enterprises, years 2004-2006 (SOP-ICE).
� Measure 2.3 was aimed at improvement of competitiveness of
Polish SMEs through modernisation of their product offer and
their technology base.
� Average value of the subsidy amounted to PLN 532 thousand.
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Impact evaluation problemImpact evaluation problemImpact evaluation problemImpact evaluation problem
?
Factor x1
Factor x2
SOP-ICE
EffectsSELECTION
BIAS?
Problem: low
competitivenessof enterprises
SOP-ICE
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The approachThe approachThe approachThe approach
� Counterfactual framework -> Q: what would have
happened in the absence of the intervention?
� Quasi-experimental approach was chosen.
� Control group was selected from unsuccessful
applicants.
� Method used to reduce the selection bias:
Propensity Score Matching.
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Data sets used in the evaluationData sets used in the evaluationData sets used in the evaluationData sets used in the evaluation
� PARP data sets (databases of all applicants, with employment +9);
� 19 covariates were controlled, such as: age, revenues, size, legal form, assets, the use of other subsidies, etc.
� Central Statistical Office data sets (Report on � Central Statistical Office data sets (Report on revenues, costs and financial results and the cost of fixed assets);
� 31 outcome variables were estimated, such as: net revenues from sales, employment, expenditures, profits, etc.
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Unsuccessful applicantsUnsuccessful applicantsUnsuccessful applicantsUnsuccessful applicantsControl groupControl groupControl groupControl group
ps= 0,8ps= 0,1
BeneficiariesBeneficiariesBeneficiariesBeneficiaries
Propensity Score Matching Propensity Score Matching Propensity Score Matching Propensity Score Matching (1(1(1(1----1; nearest neighbour)1; nearest neighbour)1; nearest neighbour)1; nearest neighbour)
ps= 0,6ps= 0,5
ps= 0,2
ps= 0,3ps= 0,2
ps= 0,01
ps= 0,4
ps= 0,9
ps= 0,8ps= 0,3
ps= 0,9ps= 0,4
ps= 0,1
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Selection biasSelection biasSelection biasSelection bias
VariableVariableVariableVariable
TreatedTreatedTreatedTreated
((((meanmeanmeanmean
valuevaluevaluevalue))))
UntreatedUntreatedUntreatedUntreated
((((meanmeanmeanmean
valuevaluevaluevalue))))
ControlControlControlControl
groupgroupgroupgroup
((((meanmeanmeanmean valuevaluevaluevalue))))
TheTheTheThe standardizedstandardizedstandardizedstandardized
differencedifferencedifferencedifference inininin
percentpercentpercentpercent ((((beforebeforebeforebefore
matchingmatchingmatchingmatching))))
TheTheTheThe standardizedstandardizedstandardizedstandardized
differencedifferencedifferencedifference inininin
percentpercentpercentpercent ((((afterafterafterafter
matchingmatchingmatchingmatching))))
Age of the company 10,31 10,41 10,13 -1,12 2,28
Revenues (in total) 50409,24 74320,05 62275,93 -4,74 -2,35
Revenue growth before the programe (comparing 2 periods)
0,72 0,59 0,73 26,72 -2,35
Assets (in toatal) 32676,70 75478,18 30319,08 -2,78 0,15
Assets growth before the programe (comparing 2 periods)
0,70 0,60 0,70 20,12 -0,35
Value of deminimis 13802,67 9826,17 11593,88 5,22 2,90
Total employment 70,34 44,77 71,15 47,44 -1,50
Employment growth before the programme
0,66 0,57 0,66 18,88 -0,46programme
0,66 0,57 0,66 18,88 -0,46
Difference in employment 7,29 4,20 7,73 17,62 -2,49
Percentage of women 0,27 0,33 0,27 -25,82 0,98
Number of contracts signed in Phare 1,15 0,45 1,06 53,95 6,87
Value of signed contracts in Phare 15502,53 5301,36 13934,88 46,73 7,18
Application in SOP-ICE Measure 2.1 0,06 0,02 0,06 21,45 2,77
Contract in SOP-ICE Measure 2.1 0,04 0,01 0,03 20,24 2,60
Contract in SOP-HRD Measure 2.3 0,08 0,04 0,09 15,92 -2,28
Credit 0,70 0,53 0,68 34,68 4,86
Project area … … … … …
Region … … … … …
Legal form … … … … …
PKD code … … … … …
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Date of measurementDate of measurementDate of measurementDate of measurement
2004
2007 200840%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2003
2006
2007
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
PRE POST+1 POST+2
4 4 4 4 yearsyearsyearsyears (on (on (on (on averageaverageaverageaverage)))) 1 1 1 1 yearyearyearyear
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Employment and wages costsEmployment and wages costsEmployment and wages costsEmployment and wages costs
2 429
4 374 4 666
2 339
3 8524 065
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
WagesWagesWagesWages costscostscostscosts (i(i(i(in PLN n PLN n PLN n PLN thousandthousandthousandthousand))))
80,1%↑↑↑↑
64,7%↑↑↑↑
6,7%↑↑↑↑
5,5%↑↑↑↑
125124
114 112
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Average employment (in FTEs)Average employment (in FTEs)Average employment (in FTEs)Average employment (in FTEs)
37,8%↑↑↑↑
24,4%↑↑↑↑
-0,6%↓↓↓↓
-2,0%↓↓↓↓
0
500
1 000
1 500
PRE POST+1 POST+2
beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)
9192
80
85
90
95
PRE POST+1 POST+2
beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)
Impact: +14 FTEs Impact: +PLN 511thousand
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Net revenues from salesNet revenues from salesNet revenues from salesNet revenues from sales
40 683 41 894
33 195 34 07330 000
35 000
40 000
45 000
68,5%↑↑↑↑
3,0%↑↑↑↑
2,6%↑↑↑↑
24 140
21 530
15 000
20 000
25 000
PRE POST+1 POST+2
beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)
54,2%↑↑↑↑
Impact: +PLN 5 211 thousand
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Operating expensesOperating expensesOperating expensesOperating expenses
22 205
37 844 39 005
20 132
31 066
31 927
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000
70,4%↑↑↑↑
54,3%↑↑↑↑
3,1%↑↑↑↑
2,8%↑↑↑↑
20 132
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
PRE POST+1 POST+2
beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)
Impact: +PLN 5 006 thousand
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Losses Losses Losses Losses –––– scale of the phenomenonscale of the phenomenonscale of the phenomenonscale of the phenomenon
15,4%
20,7%
11,9%
18,8%
23,5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
LossLossLossLoss on on on on salessalessalessales
164,9%↑↑↑↑
34,3%↑↑↑↑58,7%↑↑↑↑
24,5%↑↑↑↑
11,9%
15,4%13,7%
19,2%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Net Net Net Net losslosslossloss
40,2%↑↑↑↑
114,0%↑↑↑↑ 29,7%↑↑↑↑
5,8%
0%
5%
PRE POST+1 POST+2
beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)
164,9%↑↑↑↑
2,6%
6,4%
0%
5%
PRE POST+1 POST+2
beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)
363,9%↑↑↑↑
Impact: +3,3% Impact: zero
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LossesLossesLossesLosses
3 416
4 795
2 4162 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
Net Net Net Net losslosslossloss (i(i(i(in PLN n PLN n PLN n PLN thousandthousandthousandthousand))))
565,2%↑↑↑↑
40,4%↑↑↑↑
-33,8%↓↓↓↓1 4281 141
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
LossLossLossLoss on on on on salessalessalessales (i(i(i(in PLN n PLN n PLN n PLN thousandthousandthousandthousand) ) ) )
66,5%↑↑↑↑
514653
1 600
0
1 000
PRE POST+1 POST+2
beneficiaries (NPRE=19; NPOST+1=81; NPOST+2=102)
control group (NPRE=46; NPOST+1=92; NPOST+2=123)
269,9%↑↑↑↑426
858534
1 141
1 1770
1 000
PRE POST+1 POST+2
beneficiaries (NPRE=42; NPOST+1=102; NPOST+2=131)
control group (NPRE=81; NPOST+1=121; NPOST+2=145)
66,5%↑↑↑↑
101,6%↑↑↑↑ 3,1%↑↑↑↑113,5%↑↑↑↑
Impact: +PLN 360 thousand Impact: +PLN 3 335 thousand
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ProfitsProfitsProfitsProfits
2 073
3 409 3 784
1 627
2 7462 926
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
Profit on Profit on Profit on Profit on salessalessalessales
6,6%↑↑↑↑68,8%↑↑↑↑
11,0%↑↑↑↑
64,5%↑↑↑↑
1 672
2 875 2 946
1 249
2 3112 275
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
Net profitNet profitNet profitNet profit
84,9%↑↑↑↑-1,5%↓↓↓↓
72,0%↑↑↑↑2,5%↑↑↑↑
1 627
0
1 000
PRE POST+1 POST+2
beneficiaries (NPRE=721; NPOST+1=661; NPOST+2=632)
control group (NPRE=682; NPOST+1=642; NPOST+2=618)
1 249
0
1 000
PRE POST+1 POST+2
beneficiaries (NPRE=741; NPOST+1=681; NPOST+2=661)
control group (NPRE=717; NPOST+1=670; NPOST+2=639)
84,9%↑↑↑↑
Impact: +PLN 412 thousand Impact: +PLN 248 thousand
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Asset TurnoverAsset TurnoverAsset TurnoverAsset Turnover
1,92
1,51
1,96
1,641,58
1,60
1,80
2,00
2,20
-21,1%↓↓↓↓ -3,5%↓↓↓↓
-16,4%↓↓↓↓
1,511,44
1,00
1,20
1,40
PRE POST+1 POST+2
beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)
-5,0%↓↓↓↓
Impact: -0,10
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TTTTotalotalotalotal expenditures on expenditures on expenditures on expenditures on ttttangibleangibleangibleangible fixed assets in usefixed assets in usefixed assets in usefixed assets in use
1 144
2 274 2 226
1 287
1 516
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
TTTTotalotalotalotal expendituresexpendituresexpendituresexpenditures............
98,7%↑↑↑↑
48,3%↑↑↑↑
-2,1%↓↓↓↓
17,8%↑↑↑↑1 203
1 2201 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
ExpendituresExpendituresExpendituresExpenditures of enterprises on of enterprises on of enterprises on of enterprises on machinerymachinerymachinerymachinery and and and and
technicaltechnicaltechnicaltechnical equipmentequipmentequipmentequipment
91,3%↑↑↑↑1,4%↑↑↑↑
8,8%↑↑↑↑868
0
500
1 000
PRE POST+1 POST+2
beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)
629
442587 638
0
500
PRE POST+1 POST+2
beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)
32,7%↑↑↑↑8,8%↑↑↑↑
Impact: +PLN 434 thousand Impact: +PLN 395 thousand
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LiabilitiesLiabilitiesLiabilitiesLiabilities
1 080
2 323 2 443
1 8281 828
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
ShortShortShortShort----termtermtermterm liabilitiesliabilitiesliabilitiesliabilities: : : : creditscreditscreditscredits and and and and loansloansloansloans
115,1%↑↑↑↑
98,2%↑↑↑↑
5,2%↑↑↑↑
0,0%→→→→ 1 7992 015
1 521
1 566
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
LongLongLongLong----term term term term liabilitiesliabilitiesliabilitiesliabilities: : : : creditscreditscreditscredits and and and and loansloansloansloans
171,9%↑↑↑↑
12,0%↑↑↑↑
2,9%↑↑↑↑
923
0
500
1 000
PRE POST+1 POST+2
beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)
98,2%↑↑↑↑
662584
0
500
1 000
PRE POST+1 POST+2
beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)
160,4%↑↑↑↑
Impact: +PLN 458 thousand Impact: +PLN 372 thousand
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ExportExportExportExport
3 659
6 965
6 830
5 579
4 544
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
NNNNet income from sales of et income from sales of et income from sales of et income from sales of productsproductsproductsproducts for for for for
exportexportexportexport
90,4%↑↑↑↑
-1,9%↓↓↓↓
95,6%↑↑↑↑-18,6%↓↓↓↓
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
NNNNet income from sales of goods and et income from sales of goods and et income from sales of goods and et income from sales of goods and
materials for exportmaterials for exportmaterials for exportmaterials for export
2 853
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
PRE POST+1 POST+2
beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)
537 794837
6411 255 1 694
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
PRE POST+1 POST+2
beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)
5,3% ↑↑↑↑47,9%↑↑↑↑
95,6%↑↑↑↑35,0%↑↑↑↑
Impact: +PLN 1 479 thousand Impact: -PLN 753 thousand
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Value of purchases in total importsValue of purchases in total importsValue of purchases in total importsValue of purchases in total imports
3 301
6 0596 066
2 945
4 4254 402
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
83,5%↑↑↑↑
50,3% ↑↑↑↑
0,1%↑↑↑↑
-0,5%↓↓↓↓
0
1 000
2 000
PRE POST+1 POST+2
beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)
Impact: +PLN 1 307 thousand
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StructureStructureStructureStructure of importsof importsof importsof imports
2290
3965 4057
2318 21972000
3000
4000
5000
IIIImportmportmportmport ofofofof raw materials and raw materials and raw materials and raw materials and semifinishedsemifinishedsemifinishedsemifinished
products for productionproducts for productionproducts for productionproducts for production
73,2%↑↑↑↑2,3%↑↑↑↑
-5,2%↓↓↓↓ 18882067
2000
3000
4000
5000
IIIImportmportmportmport of goods intended for resaleof goods intended for resaleof goods intended for resaleof goods intended for resale
47,2% ↑↑↑↑9,5% ↑↑↑↑
1587
2318 2197
0
1000
2000
PRE POST+1 POST+2
beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)
46,1% ↑↑↑↑-5,2%↓↓↓↓
880
1662 15561282
1888
0
1000
2000
PRE POST+1 POST+2
beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)
89,0%↑↑↑↑-6,4%↓↓↓↓
47,2% ↑↑↑↑
Impact: +PLN 1 158 thousand Impact: -PLN 109 thousand
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Current ratioCurrent ratioCurrent ratioCurrent ratio
1,63
1,66 1,65
1,55 1,62 1,64
1,40
1,50
1,60
1,70
1,80
1,90
2,00
-0,6%↓↓↓↓
1,4%↑↑↑↑4,2%↑↑↑↑
1,7%↑↑↑↑
1,00
1,10
1,20
1,30
PRE POST+1 POST+2
beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)
Impact: -0,07
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� Main positive impacts:
� Employment and wages.
� Export and import (production activity).
� Profits.
SummarySummarySummarySummary
� Expenditures on tangible fixed assets in use
(machinery and technical equipment).
� Main negative impacts, or no impact:
� Productivity of the enterprises.
� Losses and their amount.
� Liquidity of the enterprises.
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More on this…More on this…More on this…More on this…
www.parp.gov.pl/index/more/24238
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Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!
Polish Agency for Enterprise Development
81/83 Pańska Street
00-834 Warsaw, Poland
Tel + 48 (22) 432 80 80
Fax + 48 (22) 432 86 20
+ 48 (22) 432 84 04
Infoline: + 48 (22) 432 89 91/92/93
www.parp.gov.pl