Trying to Make (yawn) Demographics (snore) Interesting ...€¦ · Trying to Make (yawn)...
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Trying to Make (yawn) Demographics(snore) Interesting (yeah, right):
No – Really!!
A Presentation by:Jonathan Schechter, Executive Director
The Charture InstituteJackson, Wyoming
A Presentation to:The Jackson Hole Community School
September 24, 2008
P.O. Box 4672 • 485 Arapahoe Ln.Jackson, WY 83001 • (307) 733-8687 • [email protected]
Copyright © 2008 – The Charture Institute
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The Charture Institute
Founded to examine PEAS (Places of Ecological and Aesthetic Significance), places such as resort and national
park gateway communities. In practice, a three-legged stool.
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The Charture Institute
Founded to examine PEAS (Places of Ecological and Aesthetic Significance), places such as resort and national
park gateway communities. In practice, a three-legged stool.
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Founding HypothesisResorts & gateways are growing and changing more rapidly than the nation asa whole. They share this and other qualities, but aren’t learning from each other.
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The Charture Institute
Founded to examine PEAS (Places of Ecological and Aesthetic Significance), places such as resort and national
park gateway communities. In practice, a three-legged stool.
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Founding HypothesisResorts & gateways are growing and changing more rapidly than the nation asa whole. They share this and other qualities, but aren’t learning from each other.
PEAS
Leg 1:
Research
Sustaining Jackson Hole
Leg 2:
ActionsLeg 3:
Funding
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Changing Demographics – I
Context – The world’s population stayed flat 0-1100 C.E.;started taking off with the Industrial Revoluation in 1700s
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Changing Demographics – II
As Industrial Revolution took hold, population grew 70%
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Population - 1800-1900
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Total World Population
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Changing Demographics – III
During the 1900s, the world’s population quadrupled
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World Population - 1800-1900
World Population - 1900-2000
0 - 2000 CE (Census Bureau & estimates)
Total World Population
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Changing Demographics – IV
From 1960-2000, the world’s population grew by 3 billion
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Changing Demographics – V
During the 1900s, America’s population almost quadrupled
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Total U.S. Population
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Changing Demographics: Teton WY – I
Slow growth (2%/yr.): 1900=1,100 (est.); 1960= 3,100
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20,000Teton WY 1900-1960
Total Permanent Population of Teton WY (1900-1920 est.)
Teton WY Population Growth: 1900-2000
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Changing Demographics: Teton WY – II
Fast growth (6%/yr.): 1960=3,100; 1980=9,400
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20,000Teton WY 1900-1960
Teton WY 1960-1980
Total Permanent Population of Teton WY (1900-1920 est.)
Teton WY Population Growth: 1900-2000
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Changing Demographics: Teton WY – III
Slow growth (2%/yr.): 1980=9,400; 1990=11,100
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Teton WY 1960-1980
Teton WY 1980-1990
Total Permanent Population of Teton WY (1900-1920 est.)
Teton WY Population Growth: 1900-2000
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Changing Demographics: Teton WY – IV
Fast growth (5%/yr.): 1990=11,100; 2000=18,300
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Teton WY 1960-1980
Teton WY 1980-1990
Teton WY 1990-2000
Total Permanent Population of Teton WY (1900-1920 est.)
Teton WY Population Growth: 1900-2000
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Changing Demographics: Teton WY – V
Since 1960, Teton WY has grown faster than nation, world
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Relative Population Growth: 1900-2000
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Changing Demographics: Teton WY – VI
The relationship between population growth and the economy
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10,000
15,000
20,000Teton WY - Ag./Mining Era
Teton WY - Industrial Tourism era
Teton WY - Transitition era
Teton WY - Lifestyle Economy era
Total Permanent Population of Teton WY (1900-1920 est.)
Teton WY Population Growth: 1900-2000
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Changing Demographics: Teton ID – I
Fast growth (5%/yr.): 1900=1,500; 1960= 3,900
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Total Permanent Population of Teton ID
Teton ID Population Growth: 1900-2000
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Changing Demographics: Teton ID – II
Decline (-1%/yr.): 1920=3,900; 1970=2,400
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Teton ID - 1920-1970
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Teton ID Population Growth: 1900-2000
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Changing Demographics: Teton ID – III
Slow growth (2%/yr.): 1970=2,400; 1990=3,400
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Teton ID - 1920-1970
Teton ID - 1970-1990
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Teton ID Population Growth: 1900-2000
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Changing Demographics: Teton ID – IV
Fast growth (6%/yr.): 1990=3.400; 2000=6,000
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Teton ID - 1920-1970
Teton ID - 1970-1990
Teton ID - 1990-2000
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Teton ID Population Growth: 1900-2000
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Changing Demographics: Teton ID – V
Since 1960, Teton WY has grown faster than nation, world
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Relative Population Growth: 1900-2000
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Changing Demographics: Teton ID – IV
The 1990s boom: Teton WY’s population grew as much in the1990s as it did from 1930-1980
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Tetons Area Population Growth: 1900-2000
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Changing Demographics: Teton ID – V
Since 1960, Teton WY has grown faster than nation, world
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Relative Population Growth: 1900-2000
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POf America’s 3,140 counties, the top 10 in 1980-1990 medianhome price increase:
! New York, NY (island of Manhattan)– $394,300! Pitkin, CO (Aspen) – $252,700! San Mateo, CA (suburb of San Francisco) – $219,500! Nantucket, MA (Nantucket Island) – $214,700! Marin, CA (suburb of San Francisco) – $203,200! Westchester, NY (suburb of New York City) – $199,800! San Franciso, CA (city of San Francisco) – $194,300! Santa Clara, CA (suburb of San Francisco) – $180,000! Santa Cruz, CA (suburb of San Francisco) – $162,000! Fairfield, CT (suburb of New York City) – $157,500
Not Just the Tetons: Median Home Prices
Median price of US home in 1990 = $79,100Median price of in 1980 = $37,300
Difference = $41,800
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POf America’s 3,140 counties, the top 10 in 1990-2000 medianhome price increase:
! New York, NY (island of Manhattan)– $512,700! Pitkin, CO (Aspen) – $297,200! Nantucket, MA (Nantucket Island) – $278,100! Eagle, CO (Vail) – $233,200! Teton, WY (Grand Teton NP; Jackson Hole) – $232,000! San Miguel, CO (Telluride) – $206,400! Summit, CO (Breckenridge) – $196,000! Summit, UT (Park City) – $188,200! Routt, CO (Steamboat) – $173,600! Blaine, ID (Sun Valley) – $161,400
Median Home Prices II: 1990-2000
Median price of US home in 2000 = $119,600Median price of in 1990 = $79,100
Difference = $40,500
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PEagle, CO (Vail)
PPitkin, CO (Aspen)
PRoutt, CO (Steamboat)
PSan Miguel, CO (Telluride)
PSummit, CO (Breckenridge)
PBlaine, ID (Sun Valley)
PNantucket, MA (Nantucket Island)
PSummit, UT (Park City)
PTeton, WY (Grand Teton NP; Jackson Hole)
The A9 Counties
The “Archetypal 9" – 9 counties which serve as archetypes forunderstanding the growth and change going on in resort &
gateway towns – in fact, in all “nice” places to live –throughout the nation, world
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Changes in the A9 – Housing
The proportion of A9 second homes has declined...
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Changes in the A9 – Housing (cont.)
... and prices have risen as demand crushes supply
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A9 Counties Median Home Value
Median Home Value in the A9 (constant $s)
A9 Home Values: 1950-2000
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Changes in the A9 – Economy I
A9 income is growing faster than the US’s.It’s also growing faster than the A9's population
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US - Per Capita Income (constant $s)
Per Capita Income, by Year (constant $s)
US v. A9 Counties: 1970-2005
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Changes in the A9 – Economy II
There is now 1 A9 job for every A9 resident (US=0.6)
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Changes in the A9 – Education Levels
We’re better-educated than the nation (and think we’re smarter)
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US v. A9 Education Levels: 1950-2000
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Changes in the A9 – Voting Patterns
From 1960-1988, GOP candidates won the A9s 55%-40%;from 1992-2004, the Democratic margin was 47%-38%
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Voting in A9 Counties - 1960-2004
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Two basic reasons:
1. Because people want to move to the A9
2. Because they can
– There link between where people work and where they live is becoming increasingly severed
– There are Six Basic Changes driving this. The Six Basic Changes are affecting not just the A9, but all “nice” places to live
Part 2 – Why the A9 are Changing
A fundamental question: Why are the A9 booming?
As for Michael Corleone, he found himself standing, his heartpounding in his chest; he felt a little dizzy. The blood wassurging through his body, through all its extremities, andpounding against the tips of his fingers, the tips of his toes... Itseemed as if his body had sprung away from him out of himself.
“You got hit by the thunderbolt, eh?” Fabrizio said, clapping himon the shoulder... “You can’t hide the thunderbolt. When it hitsyou, everyone can see it. Christ, man, don’t be ashamed. Some men pray for the thunderbolt. You’re a lucky fellow.”
The Thunderbolt
From “The Godfather” by Mario Puzo
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#1 – The Thunderbolt ! People are moving to the A9 because they want to and because they can
Three Big Take-away Points
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PTechnology
PEconomy
PTransportation
PMores
PValues
PQuality of urban life
Why People Can Move to the A9
The Six Basic Changes transforming the A9, nation, world
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P 1980! No fax, FedEx, PCs, telecommunications competition
P 1990! No World Wide Web, cell phones, DVDs, MRI machines
P 2000! No iPods; wireless internet, digital cameras, hybrid vehicles! What else will be commonplace in 2010?
Basic Change 1 – Technology
Cheaper, more powerful, more ubiquitous
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PYears needed for US Patent Office to issue 2 million patents:! 0-2 million: 99 yrs; 2-4 million: 42 yrs; 4-6 million: 22 yrs; 6-8 million: 10 yrs
Technology (cont.)
Roughly 7 million US patents have been issued since 1790
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TotalP atentsI ssues:A nnuala ndC umulative
USP atents1: 790-2005
Basic Change 2 – Economy
Since 1993, Jackson Hole’s summer tourism has declined...
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Grand Teton + Yellowstone - Combined Annual Visits
Teton County, WY: 1993-2006
The Teton County Paradox
...but the county’s population and economy have boomed
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Teton County, WY: 1993-2006
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PFirst generation – Hunter-gatherer
PSecond generation – Land use! Farming, forestry, other agriculture! Mining, oil & gas, other extractives
PThird generation – Value added! Manufacturing (where transportation allows)! Tourism (where scenery allows)
PFourth generation – Intellectual activity! Professional services! Investments
So What’s Going On?A Theory of Economic Evolution
4 phases of economic activity
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Economic Evolution – I
Economic Evolution in U.S.: Divergence to convergence
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Percentage of Total Personal Income from Different Sources
Economic Evolution of the US - 1970-2005
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Economic Evolution – II
Economic Evolution in A9s: Convergence to divergence
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A9 - 3rd Generation (constr., manufacturing, lodging)
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Economic Evolution of the A9 - 1970-2005
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Economic Evolution – III
A9s: Construction is more important than gov’t., lodging
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Percentage of Total Personal Income from Different Sources
Economic Evolution of the A9 - 1970-2005
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#1 – The Thunderbolt ! People are moving to the A9 because they want to and because they can
#2 – The A9 are not tourism-driven economies any more ! Tourism amenities help lure permanent residents
Three Big Take-away Points
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PYears needed for 50 million vehicles to be registered! Zero-50 million: 51 yrs; 50-100 mil: 17 yrs; 100-150 mil: 10 yrs; 150-200 mil: 16 yrs; 200-250 mil.: 12 yrs.
Basic Change 3 – Transportation
Roughly 250 million vehicles are registered in the US
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United States: 1900 - 2004
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Transportation (cont.)
Vehicle growth is about 4x faster than population...
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Relative Growth of Population and Vehicles Registered (1960=100)
U.S. Population & Transportation: 1960-2004
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Transportation (cont.)
...but vehicle growth pales in comparison to air travel/freight
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Relative Growth of Population, Vehicles, Air Usage (1960=100)
U.S. Population & Transportation: 1960-2000
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PCasual dress in the office
PFlex work schedules & tele-commuting
PWe want the best; we want it for nothing! Expectations on government for services – both quantity and quality –
are growing exponentially
Basic Change 4 – Mores
Increasingly, we want it all; deserve it all
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PHealthy environment and wildlife
PAbundant recreational opportunities
PSimpler, more intimate communities
PPersonal safety
Basic Change 5 – Values
The A9 counties have what people want
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PCities becoming increasingly problematic! Increasingly congested and hard to live in
PWhy make the continued sacrifice?! Living in the A9 holds increasingly greater appeal; requires increasingly fewer sacrifices
PThe “Aha!” moment! “I can have it all!” - move to an A9 and get recreational lifestyle; same
income; higher quality of life! All for less; all with increasingly fewer sacrifices
Basic Change 6 – Quality of Urban Life
America’s values and mores are becoming increasinglyaligned with what the A9 have,
less so with what America’s cities offer
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#1 – The Thunderbolt ! People are moving to the A9 because they want to and because they can
#2 – The A9 are not tourism-driven economies any more ! Tourism-amenities help lure permanent residents
#3 – The Six Basic Changes ! Technology ! Economy ! Transportation ! Mores ! Values ! Changes in Urban Life – Virtual Suburbanization
Three Big Take-away Points
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PBetween 1900 and 1990, the A9 counties went from 2nd to 3rdgeneration; since 1990, the A9 counties have gone from 3rd to4th generation! Whiplash-inducing pace of change; much faster than we’re used to
handling, whether genetically or institutionally
PThe A9 are now “lifestyle economy” towns! Residents are attracted to recreational amenities; resorts as public good! Screw up your town, and well-to-do residents will leave it just as quickly
as they came! Reality: The A9s are where the rest of the world is heading
PThe bad news: A9 (and other resort town) leaders are using3rd generation tools (planning, revenue generation,governance, etc.) and a 3rd generation mindset to deal with4th generation challenges! The poorer the synchronization between reality and perception, the
harder it is to govern
Part 3: The Effects of These Changes
Q: What’s happened to the A9?
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PThe 6 Basic Changes aren’t going to reverse themselves
PThe A9 will continue to face the same challenges, only moreso! The same holds true for other resort communities
PThe A9 will continue to become more economically diversified,less dependent on tourism, more like other communities (justway more beautiful...)
The Effects of These Changes (cont.)
Q: What does the future hold?
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PA couple of no-brainers! The A9 will continue to see above-average growth in many areas:< Population, education levels, housing, income, etc.
! A9s’ economies will become increasingly 4th generation, at the expenseof “traditional” industries such as agriculture and tourism< People with 4th generation incomes make more money; can outcompete 2nd
and 3rd generation folks for any consumer good (especially housing)< Tremendous “community character” implications
PUnlike previous booms, this one isn’t going to bust! This boom is based on lifestyles & the 6 Basic Changes; not commodities! Unless, of course, we soil our own nests...
PThe new suburbs’ suburbs
PTremendous homogenization pressure/pressure to sell thecommunity short! Economic forces are homogenizing the US – A9 are not immune! You can replicate an outlet mall anywhere; not a mountain range< Unique commands a premium; what makes you unique?
The Six Basic Changes and the A9
Q: What are the implications?
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PSocial change follows economic change! The A9s’ demographic and economic changes are clearly here, but we
don’t perceive them< We still think we’re tourism economies, and the attendant social, political, and
cultural changes haven’t really been felt yet! People can’t move to a place without ultimately changing it< This is particularly true in the A9, with its lifestyle-oriented arrivistes
PCommunities can change very fast in one generation;perceptions change much more slowly! Communities change much faster than government realizes/can react
PSchechter’s maxim: Economies change faster thanperceptions; perceptions change faster than politics! Leaders arrived in a tourism age; governing in a lifestyle economy age< Government usually dependent on second- and third-generation income
! Our instinct is to look to government, but that’s fool’s gold< Local governments are having a hard time keeping up with the growth and change overwhelming their communities; need help from all of us
The Six Basic Changes and the A9
Conclusions
"What will happen when California is filled by fifty millions of people,and its valuation is five times what it is now, and the wealth will be sogreat that you will find it difficult to know what to do with it? The daywill, after all, have only twenty-four hours. Each man will have onlyone mouth, one pair of ears, and one pair of eyes. There will be morepeople – as many, perhaps, as the country can support – and the realquestion will not be about making more wealth or having more people,but whether those people will then be happier."
A Closing Thought from 100 Years Ago
Lord James Bryce, British historian(from a speech at U.C. Berkeley, 1909)
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