Trutz Haase & Jonathan Pratschke THE 2011 POBAL HP DEPRIVATION INDEX FOR SMALL AREAS (SA) An...
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Transcript of Trutz Haase & Jonathan Pratschke THE 2011 POBAL HP DEPRIVATION INDEX FOR SMALL AREAS (SA) An...
Trutz Haase & Jonathan Pratschke
THE 2011 POBAL HP DEPRIVATION INDEX FOR SMALL AREAS (SA)
An Inter-temporal Analysis 2006 - 2011
Dublin, August 2012
THE 2011 POBAL HP DEPRIVATION INDEX (SA)
• This presentation contains a graphic display of the latest index scores for the Pobal HP Deprivation Index for Small Areas (SA)
• The presentation comprises three parts:
i. A comparison at NUTS 1-4 level of the key social indicators which underlie the HP Deprivation Index, spanning five census waves 1991 to 2011
ii. SA-level maps for the 2011 key indicators, and
iii. SA-level maps for the 2006 and 2011 absolute and relative deprivation scores
• For a description of the conceptual underpinnings and statistical features of the HP Deprivation Index, please consult separate presentations
OVERVIEW OF SUCCESSIVE DEPRIVATION INDICES, HAASE & PRATSCHKE 1996 - 2012
91 96 02 06 11
06 11
06 11
91 96 02 06 11 06 11
91 96 02 06 11 06 11
91 96 02 06 11 06 11
91 96 02 06 11 06 11
91 96 02 06
06
06
91 96 02 06 06
91 96 02 06 06
91 96 02 06 06
91 96 02 06 06
86 91 96
86 91 96
86 91 96
86 91 96
86 91 96
96
96
96
96
96
91
91
91
91
91
SA n=18,488
ED n = 3,409
NUTS 4 n = 34
NUTS 3 n = 8
NUTS 2 n = 2
NUTS 1 n = 1
Haase et al., 1996
Haase, 1999
Pratschke & Haase, 2004Haase & Pratschke, 2005 Haase & Pratschke, 2008
Haase & Pratschke, 2010Haase & Pratschke, 2012
91 96 02
91 96 02
91 96 02
91 96 02
91 96 02
Pratschke & Haase, 2001
01NI
01NI
01NI
01NI
01NI
01NI
Haase & Pratschke, 2011Level at which model is estimated
Level to which data is aggregated
06 11
Comparing Key Social Indicators
across five Census Waves
1991 - 2011
Demographic Decline (predominantly rural)
population loss and the social and demographic effects of emigration (age dependency, low education of adult population)
Social Class Deprivation (applying in rural and urban areas)
social class composition, education, housing quality
Labour Market Deprivation (predominantly urban)
unemployment, lone parents, low skills base
THE UNDERLYING DIMENSIONS OF SOCIAL DISADVANTAGE
POPULATION CHANGE1991 - 2011
• 30 per cent increase between 1991 and 2011
• Initial growth faster in S&E Region
• Since 2006, faster growth in BMW Region
Ireland.
Border,Midlands&WesternSouthern&Eastern
.Midlands
BorderWest
Mid WestSouth WestSouth East
Mid EastDublin
.Westmeath
OffalyLongford
LaoisMonaghan
DonegalCavan
SligoLeitrimLouth
RoscommonMayo
County GalwayGalway City
Tipperary NRCounty Limerick
Limerick CityClareKerry
County CorkCork City
County WaterfordWaterford CityTipperary SR
WexfordKilkenny
CarlowWicklow
MeathKildare
Dun Laoghaire/RathdownDublin Fingal
South County DublinDublin City
80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200%
1991
1996
2002
2006
2011
AGE DEPENDENCY RATE1991 - 2011
• 7 percentage point decline between 1991 and 2006
• Rural areas gradually catching up
• Reversal in trend between 2006 and 2011, with Age Dependency Rate again increasing
Ireland.
Border,Midlands&WesternSouthern&Eastern
.Midlands
BorderWest
Mid WestSouth WestSouth East
Mid EastDublin
.Westmeath
OffalyLongford
LaoisMonaghan
DonegalCavan
SligoLeitrimLouth
RoscommonMayo
County GalwayGalway City
Tipperary NRCounty Limerick
Limerick CityClareKerry
County CorkCork City
County WaterfordWaterford CityTipperary SR
WexfordKilkenny
CarlowWicklow
MeathKildare
Dun Laoghaire/RathdownDublin Fingal
South County DublinDublin City
45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20%
1991
1996
2002
2006
2011
LONE PARENT RATE1991 - 2011
• Doubling in rate between 1991 and 2006
• Highly concentrated in urban areas
• Further increase in rural areas between 2006 and 2011
• Reversal in trend after 2006 in all cities except Cork
Ireland.
Border,Midlands&WesternSouthern&Eastern
.Midlands
BorderWest
Mid WestSouth WestSouth East
Mid EastDublin
.Westmeath
OffalyLongford
LaoisMonaghan
DonegalCavan
SligoLeitrimLouth
RoscommonMayo
County GalwayGalway City
Tipperary NRCounty Limerick
Limerick CityClareKerry
County CorkCork City
County WaterfordWaterford CityTipperary SR
WexfordKilkenny
CarlowWicklow
MeathKildare
Dun Laoghaire/RathdownDublin Fingal
South County DublinDublin City
5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
1991
1996
2002
2006
2011
PROPORTION OF ADULT POPULATION WITH PRIMARY EDUCATION ONLY
1991 - 2011
• 50% reduction between 1991 and 2006
• Rural areas gradually catching up
• Trend continues between 2006 and 2011, albeit at a slower rate
Ireland.
Border,Midlands&WesternSouthern&Eastern
.Midlands
BorderWest
Mid WestSouth WestSouth East
Mid EastDublin
.Westmeath
OffalyLongford
LaoisMonaghan
DonegalCavan
SligoLeitrimLouth
RoscommonMayo
County GalwayGalway City
Tipperary NRCounty Limerick
Limerick CityClareKerry
County CorkCork City
County WaterfordWaterford CityTipperary SR
WexfordKilkenny
CarlowWicklow
MeathKildare
Dun Laoghaire/RathdownDublin Fingal
South County DublinDublin City
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
1991
1996
2002
2006
2011
PROPORTION OF ADULT POPULATION WITH THIRD LEVEL EDUCATION1991 - 2011
• 2½ - fold increase between 1991 and 2006
• Urban areas maintaining their relative advantage
• Only marginal increase in select areas between 2006 and 2011
• Other areas experiencing first marginal decline
Ireland.
Border,Midlands&WesternSouthern&Eastern
.Midlands
BorderWest
Mid WestSouth WestSouth East
Mid EastDublin
.Westmeath
OffalyLongford
LaoisMonaghan
DonegalCavan
SligoLeitrimLouth
RoscommonMayo
County GalwayGalway City
Tipperary NRCounty Limerick
Limerick CityClareKerry
County CorkCork City
County WaterfordWaterford CityTipperary SR
WexfordKilkenny
CarlowWicklow
MeathKildare
Dun Laoghaire/RathdownDublin Fingal
South County DublinDublin City
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
1991
1996
2002
2006
2011
PROPORTION OF POPULATION IN HIGHER AND LOWER PROFESSIONAL CLASSES1991 - 2011
• 30% increase between 1991 and 2006
• Rural areas slowly catching up during boom years
• Overall trend continues between 2006 and 2011
• But urban-rural differential is again growing
Ireland.
Border,Midlands&WesternSouthern&Eastern
.Midlands
BorderWest
Mid WestSouth WestSouth East
Mid EastDublin
.Westmeath
OffalyLongford
LaoisMonaghan
DonegalCavan
SligoLeitrimLouth
RoscommonMayo
County GalwayGalway City
Tipperary NRCounty Limerick
Limerick CityClareKerry
County CorkCork City
County WaterfordWaterford CityTipperary SR
WexfordKilkenny
CarlowWicklow
MeathKildare
Dun Laoghaire/RathdownDublin Fingal
South County DublinDublin City
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
1991
1996
2002
2006
2011
PROPORTION OF POPULATION IN UNSKILLED AND SEMI-SKILLED CLASSES1991 - 2011
• Sharp 40% decline between 1991 and 2006
• Rural areas rapidly catching up
• Overall trend continues between 2006 and 2011, albeit at a slower rate
Ireland.
Border,Midlands&WesternSouthern&Eastern
.Midlands
BorderWest
Mid WestSouth WestSouth East
Mid EastDublin
.Westmeath
OffalyLongford
LaoisMonaghan
DonegalCavan
SligoLeitrimLouth
RoscommonMayo
County GalwayGalway City
Tipperary NRCounty Limerick
Limerick CityClareKerry
County CorkCork City
County WaterfordWaterford CityTipperary SR
WexfordKilkenny
CarlowWicklow
MeathKildare
Dun Laoghaire/RathdownDublin Fingal
South County DublinDublin City
45% 35% 25% 15% 5%
1991
1996
2002
2006
2011
MALE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE1991 - 2011
• Rapid decline between 1991 and 2002, halving rates
• Rural areas not fully participating in trend
• Massive reversal in trend between 2006 and 2011 for all areas
• 2011 rates exceed 1991 rates in all counties except Dublin City
Ireland.
Border,Midlands&WesternSouthern&Eastern
.Midlands
BorderWest
Mid WestSouth WestSouth East
Mid EastDublin
.Westmeath
OffalyLongford
LaoisMonaghan
DonegalCavan
SligoLeitrimLouth
RoscommonMayo
County GalwayGalway City
Tipperary NRCounty Limerick
Limerick CityClareKerry
County CorkCork City
County WaterfordWaterford CityTipperary SR
WexfordKilkenny
CarlowWicklow
MeathKildare
Dun Laoghaire/RathdownDublin Fingal
South County DublinDublin City
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
1991
1996
2002
2006
2011
FEMALE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE1991 - 2011
• Steady decline between 1991 and 2002, nearly halving rates
• Decline in urban areas exceeds that in rural areas
• Massive reversal in trend between 2006 and 2011 for all areas
• 2011 rates exceed 1991 rates in most counties
Ireland.
Border,Midlands&WesternSouthern&Eastern
.Midlands
BorderWest
Mid WestSouth WestSouth East
Mid EastDublin
.Westmeath
OffalyLongford
LaoisMonaghan
DonegalCavan
SligoLeitrimLouth
RoscommonMayo
County GalwayGalway City
Tipperary NRCounty Limerick
Limerick CityClareKerry
County CorkCork City
County WaterfordWaterford CityTipperary SR
WexfordKilkenny
CarlowWicklow
MeathKildare
Dun Laoghaire/RathdownDublin Fingal
South County DublinDublin City
0% 10% 20% 30%
1991
1996
2002
2006
2011
LOCAL AUTHORITY HOUSING1991 - 2011
• Significant decline between 1991 and 2002, particularly in Southern & Eastern Region
• Reversal in trend after 2002, with slow increases pertaining since
• Imbalance between rural and urban provision gradually diminishing
Ireland.
Border,Midlands&WesternSouthern&Eastern
.Midlands
BorderWest
Mid WestSouth WestSouth East
Mid EastDublin
.Westmeath
OffalyLongford
LaoisMonaghan
DonegalCavan
SligoLeitrimLouth
RoscommonMayo
County GalwayGalway City
Tipperary NRCounty Limerick
Limerick CityClareKerry
County CorkCork City
County WaterfordWaterford CityTipperary SR
WexfordKilkenny
CarlowWicklow
MeathKildare
Dun Laoghaire/RathdownDublin Fingal
South County DublinDublin City
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
1991
1996
2002
2006
2011
PRIVATELY RENTED HOUSING1991 - 2011
• Strongly concentrated in the cities
• Steady increase between 1991 and 2006, in both urban and rural counties
• Steep increase between 2006 and 2011
Ireland.
Border,Midlands&WesternSouthern&Eastern
.Midlands
BorderWest
Mid WestSouth WestSouth East
Mid EastDublin
.Westmeath
OffalyLongford
LaoisMonaghan
DonegalCavan
SligoLeitrimLouth
RoscommonMayo
County GalwayGalway City
Tipperary NRCounty Limerick
Limerick CityClareKerry
County CorkCork City
County WaterfordWaterford CityTipperary SR
WexfordKilkenny
CarlowWicklow
MeathKildare
Dun Laoghaire/RathdownDublin Fingal
South County DublinDublin City
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
1991
1996
2002
2006
2011
OWNER OCCUPIED HOUSING1991 - 2011
• Rates in rural counties much higher than in urban counties
• Steady decline between 1991 and 2006
• Accelerated decline between 2006 and 2011, in both urban and rural locations
Ireland.
Border,Midlands&WesternSouthern&Eastern
.Midlands
BorderWest
Mid WestSouth WestSouth East
Mid EastDublin
.Westmeath
OffalyLongford
LaoisMonaghan
DonegalCavan
SligoLeitrimLouth
RoscommonMayo
County GalwayGalway City
Tipperary NRCounty Limerick
Limerick CityClareKerry
County CorkCork City
County WaterfordWaterford CityTipperary SR
WexfordKilkenny
CarlowWicklow
MeathKildare
Dun Laoghaire/RathdownDublin Fingal
South County DublinDublin City
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40%
1991
1996
2002
2006
2011
AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER ROOM1991 - 2011
• Significant improvement over time
• Rural densities falling below urban for the first time in 2002
• Urban densities remain unchanged after 2006, but rural densities continue to fall
Ireland.
Border,Midlands&WesternSouthern&Eastern
.Midlands
BorderWest
Mid WestSouth WestSouth East
Mid EastDublin
.Westmeath
OffalyLongford
LaoisMonaghan
DonegalCavan
SligoLeitrimLouth
RoscommonMayo
County GalwayGalway City
Tipperary NRCounty Limerick
Limerick CityClareKerry
County CorkCork City
County WaterfordWaterford CityTipperary SR
WexfordKilkenny
CarlowWicklow
MeathKildare
Dun Laoghaire/RathdownDublin Fingal
South County DublinDublin City
0.75 0.65 0.55 0.45 0.35
1991
1996
2002
2006
2011
Mapping Key Social Indicators (SA)
2011
The following maps are broadly based on quintile distributions of each of the ten indicators which underlie the Pobal HP Deprivation Index
5 YEAR POPULATION CHANGE2006- 2011
Population Change2006 - 2011
20 or more7 to 200 to 7
-7 to 0-7 or more
• Strongest growth in urban peripheries
• Strongest decline in (remote) rural areas
AGE DEPENDENCY RATE2011
• Lower rates in urban peripheries
• Highest rates in (remote) rural areas
Age Dependency Rate2011
40 to 8035 to 4030 to 3525 to 300 to 25
LONE PARENT RATE2011
• Overwhelmingly urban phenomenon
• Reaching over 50% in disadvantaged city areas
Lone Parent Rate2011
33 to 10021 to 3314 to 219 to 140 to 9
PROPORTION OF ADULT POPULATION WITH PRIMARY EDUCATION ONLY
2011
• Lowest in urban periphery
• Highest in remote rural areas
• Cities containing both extremes
Primary Education Only2011
24 to 8118 to 2412 to 187 to 120 to 7
PROPORTION OF ADULT POPULATION WITH THIRD LEVEL EDUCATION2011
• Mirror image of low education
• Highest in urban periphery
• Lowest in remote rural areas
• Cities containing both extremes
Third Level Education2011
41 to 9731 to 4125 to 3118 to 250 to 18
PROPORTION OF POPULATION IN HIGHER AND LOWER PROFESSIONAL CLASSES2011
Higher and Lower Professionals2011
46 to 8537 to 4630 to 3722 to 300 to 22
• Similar to high education
• Highest in urban periphery
• Lowest in remote rural areas
• Cities containing both extremes
PROPORTION OF POPULATION IN UNSKILLED AND SEMI-SKILLED CLASSES2011
Semi- and Unskilled Manual Classes2011
26 to 6420 to 2616 to 2011 to 160 to 11
• Mirror image to professional classes
• Lowest in urban periphery
• Highest in remote rural areas
• Cities containing both extremes
MALE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE2011
Male Unemployment2011
30 to 8823 to 3018 to 2314 to 180 to 14
• The spatial distribution of male unemployment rates increasingly reflect the social class composition of local areas
• Munster shows relatively favourable labour market conditions
FEMALE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE2011
Female Unemployment2011
20 to 8015 to 2012 to 159 to 120 to 9
• Female unemployment rates in 2011 closely resemble male unemployment rates in their spatial distribution
LOCAL AUTHORITY HOUSING2011
• Primarily associated with disadvantaged urban areas
Local Authority Housing2011
8 to 1003 to 82 to 31 to 20 to 1
PRIVATELY RENTED HOUSING2011
Private Rented Accommodation2011
30 to 10015 to 3010 to 155 to 100 to 5
• Exclusively urban with considerable presence in affluent areas
OWNER OCCUPIED HOUSING2011
Own House2011
92 to 10085 to 9272 to 8553 to 720 to 53
• Predominantly rural
• Low urban rates are not necessarily related to social disadvantage
AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER ROOM2011
Persons per Room2011
0.55 to 10.820.5 to 0.550.48 to 0.50.44 to 0.480.26 to 0.44
• High rates in the average number of persons per room are a predominantly urban phenomenon
The Pobal HP Deprivation Index (SA)
Small Area Analysis, 2006 - 2011
Age Dependency Rate1
Population Change2
Primary Education only3
Third Level Education4
Professional Classes
5Persons per Room
6
Lone Parents
7Semi- and Unskilled Classes
8
Male Unemployment Rate9
Female Unemployment Rate 10
DemographicGrowth
Social ClassComposition
Labour MarketSituation
BASIC MODEL OF THE POBAL HP DEPRIVATION INDEX
most disadvantagedmost disadvantaged most affluentmost affluent
marginally below the average marginally above the average
disadvantaged affluent
very disadvantaged very affluent
extremely disadvantaged extremely affluent
MAPPING DEPRIVATION
ABSOLUTE INDEX SCORES2006
Absolute Index Score 2006Haase & Pratschke 2012
30 to 50 (22)20 to 30 (293)10 to 20 (2513)0 to 10 (6857)
-10 to 0 (5925)-20 to -10 (2294)-30 to -20 (564)-60 to -30 (20)
ABSOLUTE INDEX SCORES2011
Absolute Index Scores 2011Haase & Pratschke 2012
30 to 50 (2)20 to 30 (70)10 to 20 (838)0 to 10 (3397)
-10 to 0 (7181)-20 to -10 (5132)-30 to -20 (1719)-60 to -30 (149)
Shows the massive increase in disadvantage in wake of the recession after the 2006 Census, affecting literally every part of the country.
COMPARISON OF ABSOLUTE DEPRIVATION SCORES, 1991 AND 2006
RELATIVE INDEX SCORES2006
Relative Index Score 2006Haase & Pratschke 2012
30 to 50 (22)20 to 30 (293)10 to 20 (2513)0 to 10 (6857)
-10 to 0 (5925)-20 to -10 (2294)-30 to -20 (564)-60 to -30 (20)
RELATIVE INDEX SCORES2011
Relative Index Score 2011Haase & Pratschke 2012
30 to 50 (30)20 to 30 (474)10 to 20 (2412)0 to 10 (6232)
-10 to 0 (6483)-20 to -10 (2408)-30 to -20 (447)-60 to -30 (2)
The pattern between affluence and disadvantage, whereby affluence is greatest in the urban peripheries and gradually declining towards more rural locations, remains broadly intact.
There is some indication that the reach of the affluent commuter belts has somewhat diminished.
Within the Greater Dublin Area, there is some shift in the location of the most affluent areas. Whereas in 2006 the Western part of the Region scored high in affluence, in 2011 this is again primarily concentrated in Dun Laoghaire / Rathdown.
COMPARISON OF RELATIVE DEPRIVATION SCORES, 1991 AND 2006
CHANGE IN RELATIVE INDEX SCORES2006-2011
Change in Relative HP Index Scores, 2006-2011Haase and Pratschke 2012
improvement by more than 30 points (15)improvement by 20 to 30 points (45)improvement by 10 to 20 points (405)improvement by less than 10 points (8195)no data in 2006 (252)deterioration by less than 10 points (9210)deterioration by 10 to 20 points (350)deterioration by 20 to 30 points (14)deterioration by more than 30 points (2)