Trusting Us When It Matters Trusting Us When It Matters Beale Street Music Festival Beale Street Music Festival

Support 2008-10Support 2008-10

Richard Okulski, WCM Richard Okulski, WCM NWS WFO Memphis, TennesseeNWS WFO Memphis, Tennessee

Main Stage, Tom Lee Park – May 2009

Decision Support Overview Decision Support Overview

Decision Support Services Decision Support Services – Driven By Relationships Between the NWS Forecaster Driven By Relationships Between the NWS Forecaster

and the Decision Makerand the Decision Maker

WFO Memphis Forecaster Jon Howell Participating In SONS07

Decision Support Overview Decision Support Overview National Weather Service ForecasterNational Weather Service Forecaster– Communicates Concisely in Non-Technical Terms Communicates Concisely in Non-Technical Terms – Communicates In The Decision Maker’s Preferred Method Communicates In The Decision Maker’s Preferred Method – Understands A Customer’s Specific Needs Understands A Customer’s Specific Needs – Adapts Well to Changeable Working Environments Adapts Well to Changeable Working Environments – Knows Role in Incident Command System Knows Role in Incident Command System – Understands The Incident’s “Big Picture” Understands The Incident’s “Big Picture”

WCM Rich Okulski AtMEMA Mobile EOCSeptember 2008

Decision Support Decision Support Overview Overview

Decision Maker Decision Maker – Do I Trust You? Do I Trust You? – Are You A Team Player? Are You A Team Player? – Weather Is Information (Just Like Logistics, Operations)Weather Is Information (Just Like Logistics, Operations)– Can You Provide The Information I Need At The Right Time?Can You Provide The Information I Need At The Right Time?– I Want Your Best Estimate and Level of Confidence I Want Your Best Estimate and Level of Confidence

WFO Memphis WCM RichOkulski, Madison County, TNEMA Marty Clements, MidlandRadio Chief Spokesperson Bruce Thomas and Madison County Mayor Jimmy Harris

Beale Street Support in Beale Street Support in 20082008

Major Ongoing Severe Weather Outbreak Major Ongoing Severe Weather Outbreak – EF-3 Earle, AR Tornado (May 2, 2008)EF-3 Earle, AR Tornado (May 2, 2008)

Request For On Site Support (Tennessee State Request For On Site Support (Tennessee State EMA)EMA)– Not Staffed To Respond To On Site RequestNot Staffed To Respond To On Site Request

Assistant WCM In Southeast Missouri For EMA MeetingAssistant WCM In Southeast Missouri For EMA MeetingMIC and DAPM Conducting Earle Tornado Damage SurveyMIC and DAPM Conducting Earle Tornado Damage SurveyWCM Working Public Forecast Shift WCM Working Public Forecast Shift

Provided Stand Up Weather Brief Via Telephone Provided Stand Up Weather Brief Via Telephone – Event Organizers Delay Gate Opening For Ninety Event Organizers Delay Gate Opening For Ninety

MinutesMinutesShelby County Mobile EOC

Damage Survey Results Damage Survey Results

Beale Street Support in Beale Street Support in 20092009

On Site Support All Three Days Of Festival On Site Support All Three Days Of Festival

Strong/Severe Thunderstorms On Friday NightStrong/Severe Thunderstorms On Friday Night– Decision Not To Evacuate Festival Site Due To Strong Decision Not To Evacuate Festival Site Due To Strong

Thunderstorm With Frequent Lightning Passing Just Thunderstorm With Frequent Lightning Passing Just North Of Area (GR2Analyst) North Of Area (GR2Analyst)

– Lt. McEwen (Senior Sheriffs’ Office Official) Tells Us Our Lt. McEwen (Senior Sheriffs’ Office Official) Tells Us Our Support In His Decision Validates Our Presence Support In His Decision Validates Our Presence

Tells His Captain About Our Support Tells His Captain About Our Support

Heavy Rainfall Rest of WeekendHeavy Rainfall Rest of Weekend– Memphis in Mud!Memphis in Mud!

On Site Support Equipment

2010 Support (Big Picture) 2010 Support (Big Picture)

Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook – Mention Flash Flood and Severe Weather Threats – Monday April 26Mention Flash Flood and Severe Weather Threats – Monday April 26

Flash Flood Watch Flash Flood Watch – Issued Morning Of April 29Issued Morning Of April 29– Forecast of 4 to 8 Inches With Higher Amounts of 10 to 12 Inches Forecast of 4 to 8 Inches With Higher Amounts of 10 to 12 Inches

High Impact Conference Call High Impact Conference Call – Thursday April 29Thursday April 29– Reinforced With E-Mail To Decision Makers on Friday April 30Reinforced With E-Mail To Decision Makers on Friday April 30

Severe Weather OutlooksSevere Weather Outlooks– Slight Risk Upgraded To Moderate Risk By 3 PM on April 30Slight Risk Upgraded To Moderate Risk By 3 PM on April 30– Upgraded To High Risk Around 8 PM Upgraded To High Risk Around 8 PM

Sent Two E-Mails Specifically To Sheriffs’ Office During Sent Two E-Mails Specifically To Sheriffs’ Office During Week To Highlight HazardsWeek To Highlight Hazards

Weekend Rainfall Totals Weekend Rainfall Totals

Event Chance Of Event Chance Of Occurrence Occurrence

Severe Weather OutlookSevere Weather Outlook

Trusting Us When It Trusting Us When It MattersMatters

2010 Support (Site 2010 Support (Site Specific)Specific)

On Site Support on April 30On Site Support on April 30thth – Forecaster Jon Howell dispatched to Mobile EOC At 300 PMForecaster Jon Howell dispatched to Mobile EOC At 300 PM– Provided Initial Briefing to Shelby County Law Enforcement Provided Initial Briefing to Shelby County Law Enforcement

TeamTeamHighlights Severe Weather Threat (East Edge Of Moderate Risk) In Late Highlights Severe Weather Threat (East Edge Of Moderate Risk) In Late EveningEvening

– Continuous Weather Watch Continuous Weather Watch GR2AnlaystGR2AnlaystNWSChatNWSChatCoordination With WFO MemphisCoordination With WFO Memphis

– 900 PM Command Briefing900 PM Command BriefingUpgrade To High Risk of Severe Weather Just West of MS RiverUpgrade To High Risk of Severe Weather Just West of MS RiverLightning Risk Due to Nearby ConvectionLightning Risk Due to Nearby ConvectionBest Estimate Is Severe Weather Will Hold Off Until After End of Day 1 Best Estimate Is Severe Weather Will Hold Off Until After End of Day 1 Festivities Festivities

– Shelby County EMA and Law Enforcement Prepare For Possible Shelby County EMA and Law Enforcement Prepare For Possible Festival Evacuation After Command BriefingFestival Evacuation After Command Briefing

– Jon Initiates Critical Weather Update Procedure With Public Jon Initiates Critical Weather Update Procedure With Public Officials and Event Organizers Officials and Event Organizers

Every 30 Minutes Or Whenever Hazardous Weather Approaches Festival Site Every 30 Minutes Or Whenever Hazardous Weather Approaches Festival Site

2010 Support (Site 2010 Support (Site Specific)Specific)

Switch to Off Site Support Due to Dual Historic Flood Switch to Off Site Support Due to Dual Historic Flood and Tornado Hazardsand Tornado Hazards– Notified Sheriffs’ Office POC (Lt. Perry McEwen) About Switch on Notified Sheriffs’ Office POC (Lt. Perry McEwen) About Switch on

Saturday AMSaturday AM– Sheriffs’ Office Redeployed Some Assets From Festival to Sheriffs’ Office Redeployed Some Assets From Festival to

Northern Portions of Memphis Metro Area to Respond to Northern Portions of Memphis Metro Area to Respond to FloodingFlooding

Assisted Sheriffs Office In Declaring an Evacuation Assisted Sheriffs Office In Declaring an Evacuation Between 10 PM and 11 PM on May 1Between 10 PM and 11 PM on May 1– Tornado Warning In Effect Tornado Warning In Effect – 30,000 People Evacuated in 28 Minutes! 30,000 People Evacuated in 28 Minutes! – Approximately 25% Legally Intoxicated Approximately 25% Legally Intoxicated – Majority of Patrons Under the Age of 25 Majority of Patrons Under the Age of 25 – Event Organizers Had A Written Evacuation Plan Event Organizers Had A Written Evacuation Plan – No Significant Medical or Disorderly Issues No Significant Medical or Disorderly Issues

Damage Survey Results Damage Survey Results

Event Post Mortem Event Post Mortem

Best Practices Best Practices – High Impact Calls and E-Mail Updates Are CriticalHigh Impact Calls and E-Mail Updates Are Critical

Situational Awareness and PreparednessSituational Awareness and Preparedness– Existing Relationship Enhanced Trust Existing Relationship Enhanced Trust

Support in 2008-09 Made Tough Decisions Easier in 2010 Support in 2008-09 Made Tough Decisions Easier in 2010 – Seamless Shift From On Site To Off Site SupportSeamless Shift From On Site To Off Site Support

Existing Relationships Made Less Than Ideal Situation Doable Existing Relationships Made Less Than Ideal Situation Doable – Demonstrating We Can Be a Versatile Team Player Demonstrating We Can Be a Versatile Team Player

Lessons LearnedLessons Learned– Limitations To WFO StaffingLimitations To WFO Staffing For On Site Support MissionsFor On Site Support Missions

Historic Flooding (10-18 Inches in 24 Hours)Historic Flooding (10-18 Inches in 24 Hours)Thirty Six Hours of Continuous Severe Weather (14 Tornadoes) Thirty Six Hours of Continuous Severe Weather (14 Tornadoes)

– Indirect Impacts of Flooding On Music FestivalIndirect Impacts of Flooding On Music FestivalSunday’s Main Act (3 Doors Down) Stuck in NashvilleSunday’s Main Act (3 Doors Down) Stuck in NashvilleEvent CEO Pelted With Beer Bottles When He Announced Main Act Event CEO Pelted With Beer Bottles When He Announced Main Act CancellationCancellation

Questions Questions

Alice In Chains Main Act About To Go On Stage At Beale Street When Officials Issue Evacuation Order