TROPOSPHERIC CO MODELING USING ASSIMILATED METEOROLOGY
description
Transcript of TROPOSPHERIC CO MODELING USING ASSIMILATED METEOROLOGY
![Page 1: TROPOSPHERIC CO MODELING USING ASSIMILATED METEOROLOGY](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568157ef550346895dc56620/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
TROPOSPHERIC CO MODELINGUSING ASSIMILATED METEOROLOGY
Prasad Kasibhatla & Avelino Arellano (Duke University)Louis Giglio (SSAI)
Jim Randerson and Seth Olsen (CalTech)Guido van der Werf (University of Amsterdam)
June 2, 2003
SupportNASA/EOS IDS Program
North Carolina Supercomputing Center
![Page 2: TROPOSPHERIC CO MODELING USING ASSIMILATED METEOROLOGY](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568157ef550346895dc56620/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
ACTIVITIES
• Inverse modeling of CO using CMDL surface measurements (Avelino Arellano, Prasad Kasibhatla)
• Development of satellite-derived biomass-burning products (Louis Giglio, Guido van der Werf, Jim Randerson)
• Interannual variations of biomass burning emissions (Seth Olsen, Guido van der Werf, Avelino Arellano, Prasad Kasibhatla, Jim Randerson)
• Inverse modeling of CO using MOPITT CO measurements (Avelino Arellano, Prasad Kasibhatla)
![Page 3: TROPOSPHERIC CO MODELING USING ASSIMILATED METEOROLOGY](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568157ef550346895dc56620/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
ALT82N, 63W
BMW32N, 65W
MID28N, 177W
RPB13N, 59W
ASC8S, 14W
SMO14S, 174W
CGO41S, 145E
SPO90S
CO INVERSE MODELING• CO offers a window into the levels of anthropogenic activities• Can patterns in atmospheric CO be used to constrain CO sources?
Source: NCAR MOPITT GROUP
![Page 4: TROPOSPHERIC CO MODELING USING ASSIMILATED METEOROLOGY](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568157ef550346895dc56620/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
INVERSE MODELING METHODOLOGY
• Start with a priori spatial and temporal patterns of CO sources
• Use GEOS-CHEM (GEOS DAS driven) with linearized chemistry (i.e. prescribed OH) in forward mode to calculate spatial and temporal patterns of CO concentrations from discrete source categories
• Use calculated and measured CO concentrations, and estimated model/obs error statistics to calculate scaling factors for each CO source category using a Bayesian inversion methodology
Repeat for 2000 using GEOS-3 DAS andcompare to results from1994
1994 (GEOS-1 DAS)
![Page 5: TROPOSPHERIC CO MODELING USING ASSIMILATED METEOROLOGY](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568157ef550346895dc56620/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
SOURCE CATEGORIES
• Fossil-fuel and biofuel use• FF/BF-NA; FF/BF-EU; FF/BF-AS; FF/BF-RW
• Biomass burning & forest fires• BB-NA/EU; BB-AS; BB-AF; BB-LA; BB-OC
• Oxidation of isoprene• ISOP
• Oxidation of monoterpenes• TERP
• CO from methane oxidation• Presubtracted with yield of 0.95
![Page 6: TROPOSPHERIC CO MODELING USING ASSIMILATED METEOROLOGY](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568157ef550346895dc56620/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Biomass burning• Direct tropical emissions from deforest. & sav. burning from EDGAR 2• ‘Corrected’ direct emissions from ag. waste field burning from EDGAR 2• Direct emissions from extratropical forest fires from Cooke and Wilson (1996) estimates of area burnt • Scaled to account for CO from NMVOC• Timing of trop. & sub-trop. emissions from Galanter et al. (2000); HNH timing from Canadian fire climatology statistics
Fossil-fuel/Biofuel use• Direct emissions from EDGAR 2• Scaled to account for CO from NMVOC NMVOC emissions from EDGAR 2 CO yield of 0.6 C/C (Altshuler, 1991)
Other sources• Isop. oxidation - Guenther et al. (1995) emissions with NOx-dep yield from Miyoshi et al. (1994)• Monoterp. oxidation - Guenther et al. (1995) emissions with yield from Hatakeyama et al. (1991)
• CH4 oxidation with yield of 0.95 presubtracted from observations
a priori CO SOURCES
FF/BF (g CO m-2 y-1) BB (g CO m-2 y-1)
ISOP (g CO m-2 y-1) TERP (g CO m-2 y-1)
![Page 7: TROPOSPHERIC CO MODELING USING ASSIMILATED METEOROLOGY](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568157ef550346895dc56620/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
INVERSION RESULTS USING CMDL SURFACE MEASUREMENTS
![Page 8: TROPOSPHERIC CO MODELING USING ASSIMILATED METEOROLOGY](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568157ef550346895dc56620/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
’94 obs’94 a priori’94 a posteriori’00 obs’00 a priori’00 a posteriori
ASC8S, 14W
INVERSION RESULTS
Observed and Modeled Monthly-Mean CO in the south Atlantic
![Page 9: TROPOSPHERIC CO MODELING USING ASSIMILATED METEOROLOGY](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568157ef550346895dc56620/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
GEOS-CHEM RESULTSa priori surface CO from BB-AF
AUG 1994 BB-AF AUG 2000 BB-AF
AUG 2000-1994 BB-AF
• Differences in transport to the south Atlantic
![Page 10: TROPOSPHERIC CO MODELING USING ASSIMILATED METEOROLOGY](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568157ef550346895dc56620/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
’94 obs’94 a priori’94 a posteriori’00 obs’00 a priori’00 a posteriori
200
150
100
50
0
200
150
100
50
0
CO
– C
O f
rom
CH
4 oxi
dn. (
ppbv
)
INVERSION RESULTS
Observed and Modeled Monthly-Mean CO at high N. Lat.
ALT82N, 63W
ZEP79N, 12E
BRW71N, 157W
ICE63N, 20W
CBA55N, 163W
SHM53N, 174E
![Page 11: TROPOSPHERIC CO MODELING USING ASSIMILATED METEOROLOGY](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568157ef550346895dc56620/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
1 2 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 1 2 5 10 20 30 40 50 60
-50 -20 -10 -5 0 5 10 20 50
AUG 1994 BB-NA/EU AUG 2000 BB-NA/EU
AUG 2000-1994 BB-NA/EU
• Greater poleward transport of emissions in 2000
GEOS-CHEM RESULTSa priori surface CO from BB-NA/EU
![Page 12: TROPOSPHERIC CO MODELING USING ASSIMILATED METEOROLOGY](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568157ef550346895dc56620/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Heald et al., 2003
OTHER GEOS-CHEM RESULTS
![Page 13: TROPOSPHERIC CO MODELING USING ASSIMILATED METEOROLOGY](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568157ef550346895dc56620/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
INVERSION RESULTS USING CMDL SURFACE MEASUREMENTS
• Need for consistent multi-year met. fields with biases well-characterized• Need for ‘accurate’ source patterns
![Page 14: TROPOSPHERIC CO MODELING USING ASSIMILATED METEOROLOGY](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568157ef550346895dc56620/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
VIRS ACTIVE-FIRE PRODUCTLouis Giglio
• TRMM satellite: low-inclination (38S-38N) orbit
• Observations over entire diurnal cycle during month
• Raw fire counts from mid and thermal IR channels
• Gridded statistical summary product
• 0.5o spatial resolution; monthly temporal resolution
• Corrected (account for variable coverage, multiple fire observations
due to repeated overpasses, and variable cloud cover) fire counts
• Multiple-data layers including predominant land-cover class
• Continuous archive since January 1998
• http://daac.gsfc.nasa.gov/CAMPAIGN_DOCS/hydrology/TRMM_VIRS_Fire.shtml
• (Giglio et al., Int. J. Rem. Sens., in press)
![Page 15: TROPOSPHERIC CO MODELING USING ASSIMILATED METEOROLOGY](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568157ef550346895dc56620/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
VIRS ACTIVE-FIRE PRODUCT
fire counts
mean cloud fraction
Predominant fire-pixel land type
![Page 16: TROPOSPHERIC CO MODELING USING ASSIMILATED METEOROLOGY](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568157ef550346895dc56620/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
VIRS Monthly Active Fire Product
(Giglio/Kendall)
MODIS Burned Area Estimates
(Giglio)
Other Burned Area Estimates
Calibration (van der Werf/Giglio)
Monthly Burned Area Estimates
(van der Werf/Giglio)
CASA Fuel Load(van der Werf et al.)
Monthly Pyrogenic CO Estimates
Emission Factors(Andreae et al.)
Ancillary Data
VIRS ACTIVE-FIRE PRODUCTEric Van der Werf and Louis Giglio
![Page 17: TROPOSPHERIC CO MODELING USING ASSIMILATED METEOROLOGY](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568157ef550346895dc56620/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Net PrimaryProduction
Allocation=f (treecover)
AbovegroundBiomass C
BelowgroundBiomass C
Combustion
BelowgroundLitter C
AbovegroundLitter C
f(A,E,M) f(A,E)
Respiration
Respiration(Fire Induced
Mortality)
AbovegroundBurned Litter C
BelowgroundFire-Mortality C
f(A,1-E,M)
f(A,M)
Fuelwoodcollection
Herbivoreconsumption
f(A,E)
VIRS FIRE EMISSIONS PRODUCT
% area burned
CASA biogeochemical model
calibration
CO2 emissions
(van der Werf et al., Global Change Biology, 2003
![Page 18: TROPOSPHERIC CO MODELING USING ASSIMILATED METEOROLOGY](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568157ef550346895dc56620/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
• Need for consistent multi-year met. fields
INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS OF BIOMASS-BURNING EMISSION
![Page 19: TROPOSPHERIC CO MODELING USING ASSIMILATED METEOROLOGY](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568157ef550346895dc56620/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
CO INVERSE MODELING USING USING MOPITT MEASUREMENTS
![Page 20: TROPOSPHERIC CO MODELING USING ASSIMILATED METEOROLOGY](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568157ef550346895dc56620/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
1018 molecules cm-2
MOPITT RETRIEVAL OF COLUMN CO 2000
![Page 21: TROPOSPHERIC CO MODELING USING ASSIMILATED METEOROLOGY](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568157ef550346895dc56620/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
1018 molecules cm-2
MOPITT RETRIEVAL OF COLUMN CO FROM MODEL2000
![Page 22: TROPOSPHERIC CO MODELING USING ASSIMILATED METEOROLOGY](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568157ef550346895dc56620/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
RATIO MODEL/MOPITT
Model and measurement biases?Availability of updated OH fields
![Page 23: TROPOSPHERIC CO MODELING USING ASSIMILATED METEOROLOGY](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568157ef550346895dc56620/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
ASC
EIC CGO
obsK94 bbnew BB
SURFACE CO IN SH
SMO