Trick or Trends: Crime and

Violence in Brazil

Corinne Davis Rodrigues, Ph.D.

Department of Sociology and Anthropology

Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais

General Crime Trends in Brazil

• Since the mid-1980’s, there has been a significant increase in crime in Brazil

• These increases have occurred primarily in urban areas and in violent as opposed to property crime.

• The largest increases up to 2000 ocurred in the Southeast region, especially in the cities of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.

Total de homicídios para toda a população do Brasill

53.325(Taxa 30,6)

14.435(Taxa 12,2)

0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

Ano 1980 Ano 2002

Nú

mer

o d

e h

om

icíd

ios

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

1520

2530

Anos

Tax

aTrends in Brazilian Homicide Rates – 1980 to 2000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

1015

2025

3035

40

Anos

Taxa

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

1015

2025

3035

40

Anos

Taxa

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

1015

2025

3035

40

Anos

Taxa

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

1015

2025

3035

40

Anos

Taxa

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

1015

2025

3035

40

Anos

Taxa

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

1015

2025

3035

40

Anos

Taxa

BrasilNorteNordesteSudesteSulCentro-Oeste

Trends in Brazilian Homicide Rates by Region1980 to 2000

Recent Crime Trends in Brazil

• However, after 2000, violent crime rates in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo have declined, whereas violent crime in other cities has increase, especially in the Northeast.

Taxas de Homicídio (em 100.000) na População Total por Capital e Região 2000/2007

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Anos 2000 - 2007

Taxa

s de

Hom

icíd

io (e

m 1

00.0

00) Belo Horizonte

Rio de Janeiro

São Paulo

Vitória

Recife

Robbery, Theft and Assault – Capital Cities

2004-2005

Robbery Theft Assault 2004 2005 2004 2005 2004 2005

Belo Horizonte

1,537.2 934.52 1,091.3 939.11 203.9 227.76

Rio de Janeiro

1,258.6 1,268 985.7 1,078.14 419.7 424.90

São Paulo

1,525.4 1,416.55 1,887.4 1,853.63 346.5 370.52

Vitória

1,175.6 1,165.94 2,457,7 2,416.46 397.9 393.86

Florianópolis

501.7 370.48 4,278.4 2,801.06 727.30

490.20

Fortaleza 1,908.1 2,617.7 2,264.7 2,678.29 342.8 425.36

“Interiorization” of Crime

• While rates for the capital cities are still high, most recently the capital cities are not “driving” the crime rates.

2005

Homicide – Jaboatão dos Guararapes, PE (92,08)

Assault – Rio Branco, AC (1752,20)

Robbery – Fortaleza, CE (2617,7)

Theft – Brasília, DF (9916,01)

Explaining Crime in Brazil

• What are the explanations for crime in Brazil?

• Explanations developed in the social sciences emerged beginning in the 1980’s.

• Prior to then, discussions of crime were relegated to legal scholars.

Explaining Crime in Brazil

• Explanations from Brazilian scholars center around four explanations• Inequality/poverty• Inefficiencies of the formal system

of social control• Socal transformations/social

interactions• Inequality revisited

Crime Trends for Minas Gerais

• In Minas Gerais, we see a crime “peak” between 2003-2005, with substantial declines after 2005.

• Minas Gerais also demonstrates the “interiorization” phenomenon, with concentrations of crime occurring in other medium size cities and not just in the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte

Crime in Belo Horizonte

• Just as in the state as a whole, crime is not equally distributed in the city of Belo Horizonte.

• Who you are, where you live and where you circulate affect your crime risk.

Determinants of Crime Risk

• Routine activities/Lifestyle theory

• Social disorganization/Broken Windows

Socio-demographic characteristics

• Sex• Age• Race• Socio-economic status• Marital status• Employed (working at time of the

survey)

Routine activities/Lifestyle Variables

• Exposure• Leisure risk• Street risk• Everyday risk

• Proximity• Lives in favela/public housing

• Guardianship• Number or adults in household• Preventive measures

Social Disorganization Variables

• Public disorder• factor score (abandoned builidings,

empty lots, and trash)• Social disorder

• sum of 10 items (street vendors, informal car attendants, homeless, beggars, public urination or defecation, public acts of obscenity, general vandalism, vandalism of public property, public arguments, and prostitution)

Determinants of Crime Risk

TYPE OF CRIME CRIME RISK Robbery

Leisure Risk 7.2% Street Risk

8.9%

Prevention Measures

- 7.1%

Assault Physical incivilities scale - 24.5% Buglary Never married - 12.8% Lives in favela/public housing

169.6%

Determinants of Crime Risk

• Physical characteristics don’t matter• Being white, male, etc.

• Where you live matters• What you do (lifestyle) matters

• -both degree of risk and safety measures

• Lifestyle matters more for robbery than for assault

What is being done to keep you safe?

• Fica Vivo• Homicide reduction

• Olho Vivo• Monitored cameras downtown

• IGESP – Integration of Public Security Management (modeled on Compstat)• Integration of information and

resources between police