Tri County Economic Forecast 2007

BMUJanuary 11, 2007

Outline

• Historic Economic Performance

• Economic Outlook 2007

• A look at factors affecting Tri-County Regional Growth

Population Density, 2004

Tri-County Total Population

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000 ButteGlennTehamaTri-County

Tri-County Net Population Change

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000 ButteGlennTehama

Butte County Components of Change

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000Births

DeathsNatural increase

Net migrationTotal change

Tri-County Population Growth Conclusions

• Net migration drives growth

• In-migration is starting to decline driven by– Bay area jobs recovery

– Delayed migration of retirees & urban refugees

• Housing prices affecting location w/in Tri-County

Median Age, 2004

Tri-County Median Age

20

25

30

35

40

45

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

ButteGlennTehamaCalifornia

Tri-County Labor Force 2004

Unemployment, 2004

Tri-County Unemployment Rate

0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%

10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%18.00%20.00% California

Butte

Glenn

Tehama

Butte County Employment

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Farm

Goods Producing

Service Providing

Government

Butte County Goods-Producing Employment

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500 Natural Res., Mining & Constr.

Durable Goods

Nondurable Goods

Butte County Service Employment

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

Trade, Transp. & Utilities Information Financial Activities

Prof. & Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & HospitalityOther Services Fed Gov State Gov

Local Gov

Tri-County Retail Spending

Retail Trade Growth

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

California

Butte

Glenn

Tehama

Retail Trade by Sector

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

F 2007

Apparel & Accessories

Automobile Dealers

Building Materials,Hardware

Eating & Drinking Places

Food Stores

Furniture, HomeFurnishings

Gasoline Service Stations

General Merchandise

Miscellaneous RetailStores

Poverty

Families below Poverty, 2004

Individuals in Poverty

0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%

10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%20.0%

Butte Glenn Tehama

1990

2000

Families in Poverty

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

Butte Glenn Tehama

1990

2000

Tri-County Agriculture Production

Butte CountyAgricultural Production

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000Rice , M illing Almonds

Walnuts , English Plums, Drie d

Nurse ry Products Pe ache s , Clingstone

Cattle and Calve s Fie ld Crops

Rice , Se e d

Average Disposable Income, 2004

2007 Economic OutlookSummary

• Tri-County economies expecting very slow growth over next year– Bay Area recovery drawing job growth – fewer

expansions or relocations due to tight skilled job market

• Poverty & low educational attainment continues to affect select pockets