Trendwatch 3Q 2017 - Callahan &...

80
Sponsored by: Data for September 30, 2017 Call Dates: November 28 & 29, 2017 Trendwatch 3Q 2017

Transcript of Trendwatch 3Q 2017 - Callahan &...

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Data for September 30, 2017Call Dates: November 28 & 29, 2017

1

Trendwatch 3Q 2017

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Welcome!

When you join the event, you should automatically be connected to the audio broadcast with your computer. To listen by phone, please dial +1-415-655-0003, then input the access code 662 212 525.

To help you follow along with TrendWatch, earlier today we sent the presentation slides for the event to the email address you used to register for TrendWatch. We will also send you a copy of slides after the event.

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Slide Link

Today’s slides can be found online at:

http://bit.ly/3Q17-4

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We Encourage Questions!!!

Use the Q&A box located on the right side of the screen to type your comments or questions.

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You Might Also Be Interested In

The Indirect Addiction, SEG Savings, And Millennial HomebuyingFour can’t-miss data points this week on Creditunions.com

Breaking The Indirect AddictionWhy Shoreline Credit Union sold its stake in indirect lending.

The Need For Speed In Auto LendingTakeaways from CU Direct’s DRIVE17 include the importance of speed, the impact of innovation, and improvements in dealer relationships.

Is Technology Sprawl Ruining Your Member Lending ExperienceThe right loan origination system can help ensure loan growth goals are met.

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Sign Up For The CreditUnions.com

Daily Newsletter Here:

www.creditunions.com/members

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Sign Up For The CreditUnions.com Newsletter Here:

www.creditunions.com/members/

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Giving students and graduates the credit they deserve

Upcoming Webinars:

Thursday, Jan. 11 at 11:00 a.m. ET

Monday, Jan. 29 at 2:00 p.m. ET

To Register:

studentchoice.org/creditunions

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Tell us what you thought!

Please answer our post-event survey.

One lucky survey respondent will win a Starbucks gift card.

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Data for September 30, 2017Call Dates: November 28 & 29, 2017

10

Trendwatch 3Q 2017

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Agenda

Market UpdateJason Haley, Managing Director, Investment Management Group, ALM First

3Q 2017 Credit Union Trends & Key Issues

“Member-First, Not Bank-Lite”Alix Patterson, Partner, Callahan & Associates

Sam Taft, Senior Director of Industry Analysis, Callahan & Associates

Minimizing Indirect LendingNathan Grossenbach, CEO, Shoreline CU

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ALM First Market Update

Jason Haley

Managing Director, Investment Management Group

2911 Turtle Creek Blvd.

Suite 500

Dallas, Texas 75219

Phone: 800.752.4628

Fax: 214.987.1052

www.almfirst.com

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Speaker – Jason Haley

• Managing Director, Investment Management Group

• Responsible for cross-sector relative value analysis and all capital markets activities

• Oversees the development and execution of model and client-specific portfolio strategies

• Responsible for market research & commentary

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Economic Update

• Tax reform progress remains the most widely discussed economic theme in recent weeks

– Senate expected to vote on its bill this week

– If it passes, the reconciliation process will begin, which will be the most challenging part of the overall process

– If nothing is passed in Q1, the odds of getting something done in 2018 will likely fall precipitously

• Q3 GDP growth came in above expectations (3.0% vs 2.6%), and overall growth fundamentals remain positive

• Wage growth and overall inflation pressures have been absent in 2017 despite low unemployment and solid Q2/Q3 growth

• Trump Administration is finally beginning to fill more key positions at regulatory agencies, making deregulation a potential theme to watch in 2018

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Actual vs. Expected Data Trend

-85

-45

-5

35

75

Citi Economic Surprise Index

Source: Citigroup Global Markets; Bloomberg

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Current Market Themes

• Biggest market theme in recent weeks has been Treasury curve flattening trend

• Rate volatility (realized & implied) remains near historic lows

• 2017 fixed income performance has been strong amid firmer spreads and low volatility, particularly for barbell strategies allocated to spread sectors

11/27/2017 8/21/2017 Change

Tenor (%) (%) (bps)

3-Months 1.25 0.98 0.27

6-Months 1.44 1.10 0.34

1-Year 1.60 1.22 0.38

2-Year 1.75 1.30 0.44

5-Year 2.05 1.75 0.30

10-Year 2.33 2.18 0.15

30-Year 2.76 2.76 0.00

Curves

2yr-5yr 0.31 0.45 -0.14

2yr-10yr 0.58 0.88 -0.30

2yr-30yr 1.02 1.46 -0.45

5yr-10yr 0.28 0.43 -0.15

0.7

1.2

1.7

2.2

2.7

3.2

1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 30Y

Treasury Yield Curve

8/21/2017 11/27/2017

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Curve Flattening

• Curve is nearly 30 bps flatter over the last month to new post-crisis low

• Factors that typically explain such a move:

1. Market is pricing for Fed policy error

• Basically, perception that the Fed will overdo it on rate hikes and spark recession

2. Lower inflation expectations

3. Weaker growth expectations

• These factors don’t appear to be the issue at the moment given market pricing and economic fundamental trend

• Other potential explanations include:

1. Corporations funding pensions ahead of tax reform

2. Supply/demand imbalances from ECB QE purchases

3. Expectations for increased Treasury supply of front-end bills/notes

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3Q in 5 Slides

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The U.S. Credit Union Industry as of September 2017

As of 09/30/201712-mo. Growth

3Q 201712-mo. Growth

3Q 2016

Assets $1.4T 6.8% 8.2%

Loans $948.5B 10.6% 10.1%

Shares $1.2T 6.8% 8.6%

Investments $361.7B -2.6% 5.0%

Capital $156.4B 6.5% 7.2%

Members 112.1M 4.2% 4.0%

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

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Credit unions outperform for-profit financial institutions

Credit Unionsin U.S.

All Banksin U.S.

Community Banksin U.S.

Annual Loan Growth 10.6% 3.5% 7.3%

Annual Deposit Growth 6.8% 4.0% 2.5%

Delinquency Ratio 0.79% 1.20% 0.88%

Net Charge-Off Ratio 0.51% 0.46% 0.12%

Net Interest Margin 2.97% 3.30% 3.65%

ROA (after tax) 0.78% 1.10% 1.08%

Average Assets $242M $3.0B $420M

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

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Loans post fourth year of double-digit 3Q growth

$598.6 $639.2 $703.6 $778.7 $857.3 $948.5

4.2%

6.8%

10.1%10.7%

10.1%

10.6%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17

Bill

ion

s

Total Loans and YOY Loan GrowthData as of 09.30.17

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

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Share growth slows from peak rate in 2016

$881 $918 $951 $1,005 $1,092 $1,166

7.1%

4.1%3.6%

5.7%

8.6%

6.8%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17

Bill

ion

s

Total Share Balances and YOY Share GrowthData as of 09.30.17

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

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Membership growth near record highs

95.1 97.2 100.0 103.4 107.5 112.1

2.7%

2.2%

2.9%

3.4%

4.0%4.2%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17

Mill

ion

s

Membership and Annual GrowthData as of 09.30.17

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

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Market Share and Member Impact

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Auto finance market share nearing recession-era levels

15.2% 14.7%16.0%

16.4%17.8%

19.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17

Credit Union YTD Auto Finance Market ShareData as of 09.30.17

AutoCount Data from Experian AutomotiveSource: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

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Volume up slightly; Market share jumps v. banks at 3Q 17B

illio

ns

Mortgage Bankers AssociationSource: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

$89.3 $97.0 $68.1 $96.0 $102.9 $104.4

7.2% 6.6%

8.1% 7.8%7.3%

8.1%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17

YTD First Mortgage Originations & Market ShareData as of 09.30.17

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Debunking the myth: Credit unions do more than just refis

63.0% 64.1%67.9%

2.0%

8.1%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

3Q06 3Q07 3Q08 3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17

Purchase Mortgage Market Share vs. CU Mortgage Market ShareData as of 09.30.17

Purchase Share CU Market Share

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer AnalyticsMortgage Bankers Association

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Share of revolving consumer credit continues to climb

$32.2 $34.2 $35.3 $36.3 $38.1 $41.1 $44.5 $47.5 $51.1 $55.3

3.3%3.7%

4.3%4.5%

4.7%5.0%

5.2% 5.3%5.6% 5.7%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

3Q08 3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17

Bill

ion

s

Revolving Loan Balances and CU Market ShareData as of 09.30.17

Source: Federal Reserve

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Share of consumer loans posts fifth annual increase

$203.9 $206.0 $189.6 $187.6 $198.5 $220.8 $248.7 $285.8 $321.1 $361.7

12.3% 12.5%

11.3%

9.9% 9.7% 10.0% 10.4%11.0%

12.1%12.9%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

3Q08 3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17

Bill

ion

s

Non-Revolving Consumer Loan Balances and CU Market ShareData as of 09.30.17

Source: Federal Reserve

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Members are using more credit union products

Credit Card Real Estate* Share Draft Auto

17.3% 4.4% 57.0% 20.3%3Q17

3Q12

Change

15.0% 4.4% 50.9% 16.0%

+2.3% 0.0% +6.1% +4.3%

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

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CU 1st mort. market share greater than 20% in 38 MSAs

Source: Callahan’s MortgageAnalyzer

MSACU Mkt.

ShareCU 1st. Mort. Orig. ($000s)

YOY Growth

Total 1st. Mort. Orig. ($000s)

Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA 44.7% $354,663 5.3% $793,716

Cedar Rapids, IA 40.4% $592,950 38.9% $1,466,046

La Crosse, WI-MN 36.3% $250,153 5.4% $689,322

Utica-Rome, NY 35.8% $195,947 16.8% $547,771

Iowa City, IA 34.6% $389,312 13.0% $1,124,087

Saginaw-Saginaw Township North, MI 34.5% $143,617 14.4% $415,791

Pocatello, ID 33.9% $115,894 4.9% $341,452

Kalamazoo-Portage, MI 33.3% $495,810 31.8% $1,488,753

Ithaca, NY 31.9% $83,643 -0.1% $262,310

Burlington-South Burlington, VT 31.8% $492,708 11.6% $1,550,273

Top 10 MSAs by Credit Union 1st Mortgage Market Share Data as of 12.31.16

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CU deposit market share greater than 10% in 30 states

Source: Callahan’s BranchAnalyzer

StateCU Mkt. Share

2Q17CU Mkt. Share

2Q16CU Deposits

($000s)All Other Deposits

($000s)

Alaska 29.8% 29.1% $5,170 $12,169

Idaho 26.5% 25.4% $9,012 $25,019

District of Columbia 24.9% 23.3% $15,654 $47,136

New Mexico 24.9% 22.2% $10,137 $30,559

Washington 23.9% 23.6% $48,323 $153,877

Oregon 22.4% 21.5% $21,903 $75,916

Hawaii 20.6% 21.5% $11,463 $44,211

New Hampshire 20.0% 18.7% $8,278 $33,087

Vermont 19.1% 19.4% $5,170 $12,169

Michigan 19.1% 18.0% $9,012 $25,019

Top 10 States by Credit Union Deposit Market Share Data as of 06.30.17

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Savings

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More than half of shares are in savings & checking

37.3%

15.4%

22.4%

6.8%

18.1%

Share CompositionData as of 09.30.2017

Regular Shares &DepositsShare Drafts

MMA

IRA/Keogh

Share Cert.

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

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Pace of share growth slowing for all but Certificates

8.6%

9.8%

16.9%

7.1%

2.2%

4.7%

6.8%

8.3%

9.7%

5.9%

-0.1%

5.4%

-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%

Total Shares

Regular Shares & Dep.

Share Drafts

MMA

IRA/Keogh

Share Certificates

12-Mo. Growth in Shares Outstanding Data as of 09.30.17

3Q17

3Q16

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

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$192

$435 $73

$180

$129

$262

$62

$79

$222

$211

3Q08 3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

Bill

ion

s

Total Shares OutstandingData as of 09.30.17

Regular Shares & Dep. Share Drafts MMA IRA/KEOGH Shares Certificates

Core deposits over three-quarters of share balances

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

$874

$399

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Lending

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Origination growth rate slows; volume still at record levels

$244.5 $270.4

$262.8

$310.4 $342.8 $365.4

28.7%

10.6%-2.8%

18.1%

10.4%

6.6%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17

Bill

ion

s

YTD Loan Originations and Annual GrowthData as of 09.30.17

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

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$87.4

$125.7

$0.0

$20.0

$40.0

$60.0

$80.0

$100.0

$120.0

$140.0

3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17

Bill

ion

s

Quarterly Loan OriginationsData as of 09.30.17

Quarterly originations at record for 3Q, but down from 2Q

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

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40.8%

8.6%

21.1%

13.7%

5.8%

10.0%

Credit Union Loan PortfolioData as of 09.30.17

1st Mortgage

Other RE

Used Auto

New Auto

Credit Cards

Other

Consumer loans growing in concentration

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

=

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10.1%

6.9%

12.3%

15.9%

4.0%

9.2%

10.6%

8.9%

11.4%

14.4%

5.8%

10.7%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%

Total

Credit Card

Used Auto

New Auto

Other RE

1st Mtg

12-Mo. Growth in Loans Outstanding Data as of 09.30.17

3Q17

3Q16

First mortgage growth drives total loan growth to 10.6%

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

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YTD 1st mortgage originations surpass $104.4 billion

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

82.2% 78.8%62.8%

70.4% 70.1% 66.4%

11.2% 12.7%

21.7%18.3% 19.8% 22.5%

6.6% 8.4% 15.5% 11.2% 10.2% 11.1%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17

YTD Mortgage Type Originations By TypeData as of 09.30.17

Fixed Balloon ARM

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Loan growth outpaces share growth for the sixth year

67.9%69.7%

74.0%

77.5% 78.5%81.3%

50.0%

55.0%

60.0%

65.0%

70.0%

75.0%

80.0%

85.0%

3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17

Loan-to-Share RatioData as of 09.30.17

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

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Biggest drop in net liquidity in 8 quarters

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

-$30 -$31

-$27-$29

-$25

-$21

-$10 -$11

-$6

$8

-$5

$2

-$3

-$17

-$35

-$30

-$25

-$20

-$15

-$10

-$5

$0

$5

$10

$15

2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17

Bill

ion

s

Annual Net Liquidity ChangeData as of 09.30.17

* Net liquidity from shares= $ share growth - $ loan growth

loan growth outpacing share growth

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As a percentage of assets, borrowings remain steady

$26.3 $30.1 $38.6 $47.7 $48.4 $51.7

2.6%2.8%

3.4%

4.0%3.7% 3.8%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

$0.0

$10.0

$20.0

$30.0

$40.0

$50.0

$60.0

3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17

Bill

ion

s

Total Borrowings and Borrowings/AssetsData as of 09.30.17

Total Borrowings Borrowings/Assets

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

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Participations are up as sales to the secondary decline

$47.3 $46.6

$22.2

$37.1$41.6

$38.0

$0.7 $0.9

$1.3

$1.3$1.6

$2.1

$0.0

$10.0

$20.0

$30.0

$40.0

$50.0

$60.0

3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17

Bill

ion

s

YTD Participations Sold and Sales to the SecondaryData as of 09.30.17

Sales to the Secondary Participations Sold

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

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$74 $191

$494

$755

3Q08 3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

Bill

ion

s

Indirect v. All Other Loans OutstandingData as of 09.30.17

Indirect Loans Direct Loans

Indirect loans comprise 25.3% of the total loan portfolio

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

$946

$568

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Meeting members where they shop

1,898 2,000 1,951

23.5%

33.7%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

20.0%

22.0%

24.0%

26.0%

28.0%

30.0%

32.0%

34.0%

36.0%

3Q08 3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17

Indirect Lending Participation (% of CUs) v. # of CUs ParticipatingData as of 09.30.17

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

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Minimizing Indirect Lending

Nathan GrossenbachChief Executive Officer

$94.6M, Two Rivers, WI

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Shoreline Credit Union at a glance

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

Shoreline Credit UnionSeptember 30, 2017

Assets: $94.6M (+4.7%)Loans: $64.5M (-8.0%)Shares: $81.1M (+0.1%)Members: 10,006 (-1.8%)Loans/Shares: 79.5% (-7.0 ppts)ROA: 0.33% (+38 bps)

2 Branches35 FTE Emps.

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Our Background in Indirect

• Co-founded the Financial Institutions Lending Options CUSO in 2007

• Through the CUSO, Shoreline expanded to $1M+ per month in indirect loans and offered in 9 counties

• Prompted by the market & regulators to re-analyze our indirect strategy

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Why Minimize Indirect?

• Capital concerns & Concentration risk

• We were making 85% percent of our loans (40% of total loans outstanding) to people we never talk to, in counties where we had a charter but no branches, and our conversion rate (of indirect borrowers becoming full-service members) was 3%

• Market factors – we could make as much in simple investments as we could in the profit-splitting world of indirect lending

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The Exit Process

• Our re-examination of the indirect strategy led to the sale of the CUSO in 2013.

• We began a retreat from indirect lending itself in 2015.

• Needed to prepare for the loan volume decline and income loss – we cut expenses by 30%, turned staff from cost-centers to income-producers, and hired our first marketing manager.

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The Numbers

• The change in emphasis led to new auto loans falling 30.35% year-over-year through Sept 2017 to $3.6M

• Used auto loans fell 16.60% to $17.5 million. • But credit card loans rose 13.01% to $2.7 million at the

end of the third quarter and first mortgages are up 6.67% to $28.9 million.

• But even with that growth, it’s going to take five or six years to work off the heavy load of indirect loans on the books.

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A New Focus for the Future

• Focusing on our community brand, hometown roots

• Growing consumer loans & mortgages (by 25% and 5% respectively) over the last three years

• Raising deposit rates

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Lessons Learned, Tips for Others

• Indirect lending, especially in participation loans, can be a valuable source of income and liquidity, but it’s not part of our core strategy anymore.

• If you’re considering an indirect exit, make sure you have a well-oiled machine to make up for that loss.

• And understand that it will take time – Our peak in 2012 was $33.2 million in indirect loans, all FILO. The 2013 sale of FILO cut that by half. Today, we are just over $7.5m in FILO loans.

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Asset Quality

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Asset quality of core lending remains strong

Total 1st Mortgage Auto Other RE

Indirect Credit Card Member Commercial

0.79% 0.57% 0.64% 0.55%

0.65% 1.23% 1.94%

+0.02% -0.06% +0.01% -0.07%

-0.02% +0.19%

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

Year-Over-Year Change in DelinquencyData as of 09.30.17

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Credit card delinquency double core products’ level

0.53%

0.64%

1.30%

1.23%

0.57% 0.57%

0.57%

0.55%0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

4Q07 3Q08 2Q09 1Q10 4Q10 3Q11 2Q12 1Q13 4Q13 3Q14 2Q15 1Q16 4Q16 3Q17

Delinquency by ProductData as of 09.30.17

Auto Credit Card 1st Mort. Other RE

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

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Careful underwriting leads to steady delinquency rate

1.18%1.02%

0.85% 0.78% 0.77% 0.79%

4.02%

2.96%

2.18%

1.62%1.32% 1.20%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

4.50%

3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17

DelinquencyData as of 09.30.17

Credit Unions Banks

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

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RE charge-offs near zero while auto and credit card up

2.32%

2.52%

0.44%

0.65%

0.39%

0.03%

1.01%

0.03%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17

Credit Union Net Charge-Off Ratios by Loan TypeData as of 09.30.17

Credit Card Auto 1st Mortgage Other RE

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

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Net charge-offs rise three basis points

0.74%

0.57%

0.48%

0.46%0.53% 0.56%

1.26%

0.77%

0.53%

0.44% 0.44% 0.46%

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

1.40%

3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17

Net Charge-Off RatioData as of 09.30.17

Credit Unions Banks

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

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Reserves stay steady, near post-recession highs

82.1%

116.6%

106.0%107.9%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

3Q08 3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17

Coverage Ratio: Allowance for Loan Losses/Delinquent LoansData as of 09.30.17

Credit Unions Banks

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

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The Bottom Line

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Interest income drives revenue growth

$27.7 $26.7 $27.8 $29.4 $32.0 $35.5

$5.5 $5.7 $5.5 $5.6$5.9

$6.2$4.9 $5.2 $5.1

$6.1$6.6

$7.0

0.0%-1.3%

2.4%

6.9%

8.4%

9.5%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

$0.0

$10.0

$20.0

$30.0

$40.0

$50.0

$60.0

3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17

Bill

ion

s

YTD Total Revenue and YOY GrowthData as of 09.30.17

Interest Income Fee Income Other Operating Income YOY Growth

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

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Loan yields decline as investment yields rise; CoF up

1.32%1.61%

0.83%0.62%

5.46%

4.54%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17

Yield on Average Investments Cost of Funds Yield on Loans

Yield AnalysisData as of 09.30.17

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

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Dividend payouts increase in both volume & rate

$6.0

$4.9

$4.1$3.8 $3.9

$4.2$4.7

$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

$5.0

$6.0

$7.0

3Q11 3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17

Bill

ion

s

Total DividendsData as of 09.30.17

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

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Earnings gap shrinks to lowest margin since 2011

3.17% 3.15%3.09% 3.12% 3.10% 3.07%

2.95%

2.79% 2.85%2.86% 2.88%

2.97%

2.60%

2.70%

2.80%

2.90%

3.00%

3.10%

3.20%

3.30%

3.40%

3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17

Net Interest Margin vs. Operating Expense RatioData as of 09.30.17

Operating Expense Ratio Net Interest Margin

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

10 bps

36 bps

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Net interest margin increases versus third quarter 2016

As of 09.30.2017

As of09.30.2016

12-mo. Change (bps)

Interest Income/Avg. Assets 3.51% 3.40% +11

Interest Expense/Avg. Assets 0.54% 0.51% +3

Net Interest Margin 2.97% 2.89% +8

Non-Interest Income/Avg. Assets 1.34% 1.38% -4

Non-Interest Expense/Avg. Assets 3.07% 3.10% -3

Provision for Loan Losses 0.46% 0.38% +8

ROA 0.78% 0.78% 0

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

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ROA stays steady following two straight years of declines

0.85%

0.80%

0.83%

0.80%

0.78% 0.78%

0.74%

0.76%

0.78%

0.80%

0.82%

0.84%

0.86%

3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17

ROAData as of 09.30.17

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

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$90.8 $89.1 $91.8 $97.8 $105.8 $114.0 $122.6 $131.4 $140.4 $150.6

$4.9 $8.2 $9.4$9.2

$8.4$7.6

$7.1$7.2

$7.7$8.711.2%

10.9%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

3Q08 3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17

Bill

ion

s

Net Worth and AllowanceData as of 09.30.17

Net Worth Allowance Net Worth Ratio

Source: Callahan’s Peer-to-Peer Analytics

Industry “well capitalized” with over $150B

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Rebroadcast tomorrow: 11:30AM Eastern

Thank you to our guests today

Jason Haley

Nathan Grossenbach

And…

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Giving students and graduates the credit they deserve

Upcoming Webinars:

Thursday, Jan. 11 at 11:00 a.m. ET

Monday, Jan. 29 at 2:00 p.m. ET

To Register:

studentchoice.org/creditunions

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Tell us what you thought!

Please answer our post-event survey.

One lucky survey respondent will win a Starbucks gift card.