Trends of Selected Agriculture & Rural Development Indicators in the COMESA Region
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Transcript of Trends of Selected Agriculture & Rural Development Indicators in the COMESA Region
Trends of Selected Agriculture & Rural
Development Indicators in the COMESA Region
By Joseph Karugia and Stella Massawe
ReSAKSS Africa-wide conference, Exploring New Opportunities and Strategic Alternatives to Inform African Agricultural Development, Planning and Policy,
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 23- 24,November, 2009
Role of ReSAKSS-ECA Node
• Support COMESA and member states; plus Tanzania (EAC and SADC) in design, implementation, M&E agricultural strategies => CAADP
• Strategic analysis; KM; Capacity building
• Hosted by ILRI in Nairobi• SC chaired by COMESA
sets agenda
Importance of agriculture in the region
• It is the mainstay of COMESA’s rural economy: the majority of the population resides in rural areas, and about 70 % engage in agriculture
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2002
Year
% o
f pop
ulat
ion
in a
gric
ultu
re
% Female pop % Male pop % of total pop
Large contribution to GDP…
Period Less than 20% of GDP
20-39.99% of GDP 40% of GDP and above
1984-86 Seychelles, Zambia, Mauritius, and Zimbabwe
Madagascar, Swaziland, Malawi, DRC, Kenya, Sudan, Rwanda, and Comoros
Burundi, Ethiopia, and Uganda
2000-2003 Seychelles, Mauritius, Swaziland, Eritrea, Zambia, and Zimbabwe
Madagascar, Kenya, Malawi, and Uganda
Tanzania, Sudan, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Burundi, Comoros, and DRC
2006 Egypt, Eritrea, and Zambia
Madagascar, Kenya, Burundi Malawi, Uganda, Sudan, and Zimbabwe
Ethiopia, DRC, Tanzania, and Rwanda
Source: African development indicators 2004 in FAO 2006a and World Bank 2008
•Contribution of agriculture to GDP remains large – transformation?
But performance has been mixed…
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Bu
run
di
DR
C
Co
mo
ros
Djib
ou
ti
Eg
ypt
Eri
tre
a
Eth
iop
ia
Ke
nya
Lib
ya
Ma
da
ga
sca
r
Ma
uri
tius
Ma
law
i
Rw
an
da
Su
da
n
Sw
azi
lan
d
Se
ych
elle
s
Ta
nza
nia
Ug
an
da
Za
mb
ia
Zim
ba
bw
e
2003 2007
Source: Compiled by ReSAKSS available at www.resakss.org
Agriculture GDP Growth rate (%) - 2003 vs. 2007
Productivity is low.….
Source: computed from FAOSTAT data
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
Bur
undi
Com
oros
DR
C
Djib
outi
Egy
pt
Erit
rea
Eth
iopi
a
Ken
ya
Liby
a
Mad
agas
car
Mal
awi
Mau
ritiu
s
Rw
anda
Sud
an
Sw
azila
nd
Tan
zani
a
Uga
nda
Zam
bia
Zim
babw
e
Arg
entin
a
Bra
zil
Chi
na, m
ainl
and
Wor
ld
Eas
tern
Afri
ca +
Nor
ther
n A
mer
ica
+
Asi
a
Mai
ze y
ield
in t
on
nes
/ ha
• In many countries maize productivity is much lower compared to other regions
Food production growth is lower than population
growth
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Bur
undi
Com
oros
DR
C
Djib
outi
Egy
pt
Erit
rea
Eth
iopi
a
Ken
ya
Liby
a
Mad
agas
car
Mal
awi
Mau
ritiu
s
Rw
anda
Sey
chel
les
Sud
an
Sw
azila
nd
Tan
zani
a
Uga
nda
Zam
bia
Zim
babw
e
Gro
wth
rat
e %
% Food production growth (2000-2005)* Population growth%**
Source: * from AfDB, 2007 and ** most recent figures from World Bank, 2006
Fertilizer use is very low
5
55
105
155
205
255
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Fer
tiliz
er in
ten
sity
Kg
/ha
Asia (excludingMiddle East)
Sub-Saharan Africa
World
Irrigation is limited
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20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
Buru
ndi
Com
oros
DRC
Djib
outi
Egyp
tEr
itrea
Ethi
opia
Ken
yaLi
bya
Mad
agas
car
Mal
awi
Mau
ritiu
sRw
anda
Seyc
helle
sSu
dan
Swaz
iland
Tanz
ania
Uga
nda
Zam
bia
Zim
babw
e
% o
f ir
riga
ted a
rable
lan
d
Proportion of arable land under permanent crops that is irrigated
Averages 1970-2004 FAO, 2006
What is the progress in meeting MDG1 -
halving poverty and hunger by 2015?
Progress towards halving poverty by 2015 in Africa
Source: ReSAKSS, based on WDI, 2008. In COMESA, only four countries (DRC, Egypt, Swaziland, and Uganda) are on their way to achieving the goal of poverty reduction. Many countries are far from the MDG benchmark for 2008
Progress towards halving hunger by 2015 in Africa
Source: ReSAKSS, based on WDI, 2008
Many more countries (DRC, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mauritius, Rwanda, Seychelles, and Uganda) are on their way towards halving hunger by 2015 but to achieve MDG1, countries need to halve both hunger and poverty. From the previous slide only two countries in COMESA (DRC, and Uganda) appear to be on track.
Region largest recipient of food aid…
• As a result of food insecurity, food aid has been a historical phenomenon in the COMESA region
• Received about 59% of the total food aid deliveries to SSA, North Africa and Middle East between 1988 and 2008
Total deliveries to COMESA (MT) 58,121,771
Total deliveries to SSA, North Africa & Middle East (MT)
98,149,184
Proportion to COMESA % 59.2
Source: Computed from data from Food Aid Information System of the WFP
Food aid recipients in the region
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5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Buru
ndi
Com
oros DR
C
Djib
outi
Egyp
t
Eritr
ea
Ethi
opia
Keny
a
Mad
agas
car
Mal
awi
Mau
ritiu
s
Rw
anda
Seyc
helle
s
Suda
n
Swaz
iland
Tanz
ania
Uga
nda
Zam
bia
Zim
babw
e
Prop
ortio
n of
tota
l foo
d ai
d to
CO
ME
SA (%
)
2007 2008
Source: Computed from data from Food Aid Information System of the WFP
Ethiopia, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Uganda, Kenya, DRC received the highest proportion in 2007 and 2008
High food prices have compounded the problem…
• Global food prices started creeping up at Global food prices started creeping up at around the year 2000around the year 2000
• Dramatic increase in 2007-2008; sharp decline Dramatic increase in 2007-2008; sharp decline since July, 2008;since July, 2008;
• But international prices are poorly transmitted But international prices are poorly transmitted to domestic markets in the ESA regionto domestic markets in the ESA region
Food price indicesFood price indices
Food Price Index (Jan 2006 = 100)
60
100
140
180
220
Year
Inde
x
Comoros Djibouti Egypt Fao Global Kenya Malawi
Rwanda Seychelles Tanzania Uganda Zambia
Note the decline in global prices
Changes in the
Food Price Index
Trends(%)
Source: FAOSTAT and Country Statistical Offices
Effects of high food prices felt by the poor and net food
buyers• Poor households spend Poor households spend
most of their income on most of their income on food - high food prices food - high food prices imply real incomes imply real incomes declinedecline
• Most farmers in the Most farmers in the region are net food region are net food buyers – do not benefit buyers – do not benefit as producersas producers
Urban poor hardest hit by high food prices……….
• Urban poor who depend on markets were Urban poor who depend on markets were particularly hit hard – riots in a number of particularly hit hard – riots in a number of countriescountries
Progress towards CAADP target in
agricultural public expenditure
Public spending in Africa has historically been very low
compared with other regions
Source: Fan, Shenggen, ed. In World Development report, 2008.
Share of agriculture in GDP (%)
28.824.4
14.4
28.9
15.610.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Agriculture based countries Transforming countries Urbanized countries
1980 2004
Public spending in Agriculture as a share of total public spending (%)
6.9
14.3
8.14
72.7
0
5
10
15
20
Agriculture basedcountries
Transformingcountries
Urbanized countries
1980 2004
•Africa constitutes the majority of agricultural based economies
•Public spending in agriculture based countries is lowest , while their share of Agriculture GDP is highest.
The 10% Budget Allocation target is yet to be met by
majority of the countries in COMESA; But good progress is
being made
5%
10%
Ethiopia
& Malawi
Burundi, DRC, Egypt, Kenya, Mauritius &Rwanda
Madagascar, Swaziland, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia & Zimbabwe
Not only quantity, but also quality is important…
• spending must also be efficient, well-spending must also be efficient, well-targeted and supplemented by targeted and supplemented by investments in non-agricultural sectorsinvestments in non-agricultural sectors
• ReSAKSS work has contributed to ReSAKSS work has contributed to definition of country investment options definition of country investment options for growth and poverty reductionfor growth and poverty reduction
Progress in implementation of
CAADP Round Table in COMESA
Progress in implementation of Round Table as at October, 2009
THANK YOU